Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

Uh...I feel like we were joking about Russia replicating their WWII strategies of throwing bodies at their enemy until they run out of bullets. It wasn't supposed to be a prediction.

Grains of salt, but man if this is true Russia really is going all-in to the point where they're setting themselves up for future disaster. In addition to the current disaster.

This isn't helping russia's demographics for sure. Those will implode in the coming years.

Sweden extradites a man to Turkey

[Kaleredar]

Uh...I feel like we were joking about Russia replicating their WWII strategies of throwing bodies at their enemy until they run out of bullets. It wasn't supposed to be a prediction.

Grains of salt, but man if this is true Russia really is going all-in to the point where they're setting themselves up for future disaster. In addition to the current disaster.

I mean, that only really worked in WW2 because Germany was fighting a two-front war and had unwisely chosen to pursue Russia into the Russian heartland during a crushing winter.

Ukraine isn't fighting anyone else... much to the contrary they're receiving active support from nations all too eager to give them weapons to blow up the Russians with. And they have no intent on pursuing Russia back across the border.

But speaking of WW2 strategies, I don't imagine that Russia will fare particularly well if/when they find themselves facing those same winters that saved them from Germany. If they're having difficulties supplying their troops now, I can only imagine the rude situation they'll find themselves in when they need those supplies... to keep from freezing to death.

[Kallisto]

I mean, that only really worked in WW2 because Germany was fighting a two-front war and had unwisely chosen to pursue Russia into the Russian heartland during a crushing winter.

Ukraine isn't fighting anyone else... much to the contrary they're receiving active support from nations all too eager to give them weapons to blow up the Russians with. And they have no intent on pursuing Russia back across the border.

But speaking of WW2 strategies, I don't imagine that Russia will fare particularly well if/when they find themselves facing those same winters that saved them from Germany. If they're having difficulties supplying their troops now, I can only imagine the rude situation they'll find themselves in when they need those supplies... to keep from freezing to death.

We also have autumn incoming as well. Those swamps will normally return and everything basically becomes stuck in mud. It's really only summer anything can get done.

[Corvus]

Russia is desperate for bodies, hence the pressgangs going after anyone who can stand on two legs. Though you have to wonder why those doing the pressganging aren't off fighting themselves. And it is why Russia throwing the undermanned, barely trained 'volunteer' units straight into the front line.

Meanwhile, Turkey and Khazahstan have just signed a military intelligence sharing protocol, and Russia isn't happy. (But when are they?) As a member of CSTO, Khazakhstan has intelligence that would be sensitive to the Russian and they fear it could be sent to Turkey, who would share it with the rest of NATO.

There is more going on than that - it is a continuation of Khazakhstan's efforts to break free from Russia, while it is weak. And it seems to be part of Turkey's efforts to forge some kind of pan-Turkic grouping. They already have close ties to Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, so adding Khazakstan to that would further that aim.

[Kallisto]

Russia is desperate for bodies, hence the pressgangs going after anyone who can stand on two legs. Though you have to wonder why those doing the pressganging aren't off fighting themselves. And it is why Russia throwing the undermanned, barely trained 'volunteer' units straight into the front line.

Meanwhile, Turkey and Khazahstan have just signed a military intelligence sharing protocol, and Russia isn't happy. (But when are they?) As a member of CSTO, Khazakhstan has intelligence that would be sensitive to the Russian and they fear it could be sent to Turkey, who would share it with the rest of NATO.

There is more going on than that - it is a continuation of Khazakhstan's efforts to break free from Russia, while it is weak. And it seems to be part of Turkey's efforts to forge some kind of pan-Turkic grouping. They already have close ties to Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, so adding Khazakstan to that would further that aim.

Turkey has been building (very successfully) a pan Turkic group for a while now cosying up to the central asian republics plus Azerbaijan. This has actually been one of the smart things the country has been doing and one of the reasons central asia is slipping out of Russia's influence over the past few years. (It's going slow but I think it's more the whole slow boil a frog thing and being done deliberately that way)

Generally I'm more surprised the PRC hasn't been pushing harder into the region, basically as a boss move to Putin telling him that it's China's hemesphere now not Russia's, I know Xi wants cordial relations but at the same time China does want its own sphere of influence too and there are many resources to be exploited in the area.

[Corvus]

China has been investing a lot in the central asian region as it is crucial for their belt and road system. Russia badly weakening itself is likely to speed up loosing its influence, though how its pans out between China and Turkey might be interesting.

[Iphie]

Russia is desperate for bodies, hence the pressgangs going after anyone who can stand on two legs. Though you have to wonder why those doing the pressganging aren't off fighting themselves. And it is why Russia throwing the undermanned, barely trained 'volunteer' units straight into the front line.

Meanwhile, Turkey and Khazahstan have just signed a military intelligence sharing protocol, and Russia isn't happy. (But when are they?) As a member of CSTO, Khazakhstan has intelligence that would be sensitive to the Russian and they fear it could be sent to Turkey, who would share it with the rest of NATO.

There is more going on than that - it is a continuation of Khazakhstan's efforts to break free from Russia, while it is weak. And it seems to be part of Turkey's efforts to forge some kind of pan-Turkic grouping. They already have close ties to Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, so adding Khazakstan to that would further that aim.

Adding to this, the Uzbek embassy in Moscow has reminded Uzbeks that going to fight for russia in Ukraine is punishable by up to 10 years in prison. In other words: russia, don't even THINK about trying to use our population for your war.

[Corvus]

Better post this one before our resident geopolitical NOOOOOOOKES expert makes a return.

Kremlin propagandist Solovyev has reacted badly to the idea of the EU denying visas to Russians saying it is a direct entry into the war, that it is a threat to the existence of Russia and may lead to a preventative nuclear strike.

[Iphie]

Better post this one before our resident geopolitical NOOOOOOOKES expert makes a return.

Kremlin propagandist Solovyev has reacted badly to the idea of the EU denying visas to Russians saying it is a direct entry into the war, that it is a threat to the existence of Russia and may lead to a preventative nuclear strike.

Thing is I personally don't support a visa ban. Probably not for the same reasons as that Kremlin mouthpiece though. Limiting them, sure, outright banning them, no.

[Gabriel]

Thing is I personally don't support a visa ban. Probably not for the same reasons as that Kremlin mouthpiece though. Limiting them, sure, outright banning them, no.

Just ban 'em all until they fix their own country.

[Nymrohd]

Just ban 'em all until they fix their own country.

As long as we don't ban them, their best and brightest can keep fleeing the country. That's as important a demographic damage as the war casualties.

[Lahis]

As long as we don't ban them, their best and brightest can keep fleeing the country. That's as important a demographic damage as the war casualties.

They can always become political refugees even without visas.

[Nymrohd]

They can always become political refugees even without visas.

A much more complex process.

[Corvus]

The visa thing might be more about tourists, a lot of whom have been showing they don't belong in civilised society with their behaviour. And most Russians wouldn't be able to afford to go anyway.

[Lahis]

A much more complex process.

This is Russia we are talking about. It is not that hard to end up on the government's kill list.

[Iphie]

This is Russia we are talking about. It is not that hard to end up on the government's kill list.

While that is true, getting that political refugee status is much more complex.

[Fuiking]

The visa thing might be more about tourists, a lot of whom have been showing they don't belong in civilised society with their behaviour. And most Russians wouldn't be able to afford to go anyway.

Can add dutch and british tourists to that reasoning too.

[Iphie]

Can add dutch and british tourists to that reasoning too.

To be fair I bet you could say that for most tourists. (and yes, I try to avoid fellow dutchies like the plague when on holiday.)

[Forogil]

While that is true, getting that political refugee status is much more complex.

And it's also a matter of timing - you would normally get on the Russian government's kill list inside Russia, and then try to leave Russia to seek asylum elsewhere.

I can see that such a plan back-fires, and I doubt that you can hope to get the treatment of Solzhenitzyn (or however you transcribe his name nowadays) and be expelled from Russia.

[Fuiking]

To be fair I bet you could say that for most tourists. (and yes, I try to avoid fellow dutchies like the plague when on holiday.)

Same hahaha.. I can see it straight away: beer in hand, no proper clothing, run around in speedos/swimming gear, super loud = many times a dutchie.