The mass flight of human capital—tech workers, academics, journalists, and anti-war activists—could decimate certain sectors and hurt a Russian economy that’s already reeling and largely cut off from international trade and business.
The country has now lost its “most valuable human resources,” Michael Reynolds, director of Russian, East European, and Eurasian studies at Princeton University, told Fortune. “Young, educated, talented, and entrepreneurial Russians who, with their education and skills, would have become leaders in the Russian economy and helped drive its growth,” he says.
Some Russians will continue to contribute to their home economy through remote work, and can act as a sanctions buffer by setting up import-export operations in countries like Turkey, Armenia, and India. But the “bulk of this talent will be lost,” Reynolds says.
The Russian economy isn’t simply going to collapse because of the exodus, experts say. The supply of talented and skilled workers remaining in Russia—only 30% of Russians hold a passport that lets them travel—is “sufficient to keep the economy afloat,” Margarita Zavadskaya, a social science senior research fellow at the University of Helsinki's Finnish Centre for Russian and East European Studies, told Fortune.
“But those who would replace [emigres] are likely to be less [skilled] on average and will… be more politically compliant," she says. Some young Russians who stayed behind, like poet and teacher Katya V., who told her story to Fortune in March, says that her friends who remained in Russia did so to support their families and protest from within. "I don't want to give up everything here for [the government] to enjoy [ruling] without any resistance," she says.
Still, the bottom line is that the Russian economy is losing competent and competitive [workers],” Zavadskaya says.