Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

The Ukrainian authorities are asking bloggers and other online types to go completely dark on the Kherson operation, for opsec reasons. Perfectly understandable, given a single photo was all it took for the Wagnerite HQ to get smashed.

Some stuff has come out, mostly from the Russia side, including the Gherkin doing his best doomposting. The Ukrainians are having success at a number of locations according to Russian sources. The Russians were hit hard by heavy Ukrainian artillery fire, including HIMARS targeting the frontline for the first time. One of the main targets was apparently a separatist unit that got hit hard and was driven back - they were meant to be supported by a VDV unit as well, but they also ran.

It'll probably be a little while before actually confirmation of what is going on comes out.

Oh, and Belogrod was hit again leading to the locals trying to flee at midnight via train to Moscow.

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And someone seems to have been given their marching orders - far-right Austrian activist Martin Sellner of the Identitarian movement has occupied the Nordstream 2 terminal and demanding it immediate re-opening and a referendum on the energy and sanctions policy of the Federal Republic.

Hrm, Germany having problems with an Austrian born far-right politician, whose names ends in -er.

[Edge-]

Oh, and Belogrod was hit again leading to the locals trying to flee at midnight via train to Moscow.

Is this the "find out" portion of "Fuck around and find out"?

Because this seems like the "find out" portion. Almost like Russia just assumed that the west wouldn't provide any assistance to Ukraine in any way, shape, or form and consequently they never had anything to worry about in their 3-day special operation as it enters its 7th month.

[Jastall]

Is this the "find out" portion of "Fuck around and find out"?

Because this seems like the "find out" portion. Almost like Russia just assumed that the west wouldn't provide any assistance to Ukraine in any way, shape, or form and consequently they never had anything to worry about in their 3-day special operation as it enters its 7th month.

To be absolutely fair to them, Western assistance would indeed have been far lesser had the country indeed fallen within 3 days or even a week. Whatever resistance movement they could find would have gotten some guns and minor intelligence thrown their way to drag on the conflict a bit, much like the rebels in Syria got, but ain't no way Uncle Sam is shipping Javelins or bigger toys to partisans operating out of a local babushka's basement.

[Fantomen]

Would the US lose more than half its energy production if they halted purchase of Russian uranium? Cause several european countries would if they stopped buying Russian oil and gas?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ium_production

According to wiki Russia have 5.43% of the worlds Uranium production. Then Kazakhstan 40.57% Canada 13.09% Australia 12.18% So replace Russian Uranium will not be that hard.

[Veggie50]

The Ukrainian authorities are asking bloggers and other online types to go completely dark on the Kherson operation, for opsec reasons. Perfectly understandable, given a single photo was all it took for the Wagnerite HQ to get smashed.

Some stuff has come out, mostly from the Russia side, including the Gherkin doing his best doomposting. The Ukrainians are having success at a number of locations according to Russian sources. The Russians were hit hard by heavy Ukrainian artillery fire, including HIMARS targeting the frontline for the first time. One of the main targets was apparently a separatist unit that got hit hard and was driven back - they were meant to be supported by a VDV unit as well, but they also ran.

It'll probably be a little while before actually confirmation of what is going on comes out.

Oh, and Belogrod was hit again leading to the locals trying to flee at midnight via train to Moscow.

- - - Updated - - -

And someone seems to have been given their marching orders - far-right Austrian activist Martin Sellner of the Identitarian movement has occupied the Nordstream 2 terminal and demanding it immediate re-opening and a referendum on the energy and sanctions policy of the Federal Republic.

Hrm, Germany having problems with an Austrian born far-right politician, whose names ends in -er.

Russion sources are reporting that the Ukrainian offensive sadly failed to achieve anything and accrued massive losses.

I therefore consider it confirmed by the Russians that they're in full "OH FUCK" mode and Ukraine is being massively succesfull with minimal casualties.

[Bakis]

Well Russia got some new friends, Iran, North Korea.
That limit their circle of friends to about 3 plus some pseudo supporters like Venezuela, Turkey.

GL the coming 20 years facist Russia.

[Corvus]

Russia keeps making outlandish claims, like shooting down the Ukrainian airforce 3 times over (yet it still flies), destroying more Bayraktars than have ever been made (yet they still fly) and destroying more HIMARS than have been given to Ukraine (without a single one actually being destroyed.)

Turns out the reason for the later is that Ukraine made a series of decoys for them and Russia wasted at least 10 very expensive Kalibr missiles taking them out. Apparently they cost $6.5 million each.

[Edge-]

Turns out the reason for the later is that Ukraine made a series of decoys for them and Russia wasted at least 10 very expensive Kalibr missiles taking them out. Apparently they cost $6.5 million each.

Man, this has big "Patton's Inflatable Army" vibes to it and I love it.

So much for all Russia's "advanced capabilities" and whatnot. Some plywood and paint seems to be overcoming the might of Russia's information networks and causing them to blow money on missiles they can't afford.

Is there a chance of Russia running out of munitions like this at any point? Or functional aircraft? Last I recall they were scavenging parts from civilian aircraft and using consumer GPS devices and shit, so things can't be going much better at this point...

[Iphie]

Man, this has big "Patton's Inflatable Army" vibes to it and I love it.

So much for all Russia's "advanced capabilities" and whatnot. Some plywood and paint seems to be overcoming the might of Russia's information networks and causing them to blow money on missiles they can't afford.

Is there a chance of Russia running out of munitions like this at any point? Or functional aircraft? Last I recall they were scavenging parts from civilian aircraft and using consumer GPS devices and shit, so things can't be going much better at this point...

Word is russia is running out of 'smart' munitions, and their GloNASS system isn't working top notch so any 'gps' missilles are a bit wonky, the downside is that stupid munitions are far MORE indiscriminate than smart munitions meaning more civilian casualties. (I know, scary thought.)

[Kaleredar]

Man, this has big "Patton's Inflatable Army" vibes to it and I love it.

So much for all Russia's "advanced capabilities" and whatnot. Some plywood and paint seems to be overcoming the might of Russia's information networks and causing them to blow money on missiles they can't afford.

Is there a chance of Russia running out of munitions like this at any point? Or functional aircraft? Last I recall they were scavenging parts from civilian aircraft and using consumer GPS devices and shit, so things can't be going much better at this point...

Well, from the article:

Russia does not disclose information about its stockpile of precision-guided missiles in Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence last week reported that Russia had “at most 45% of its missiles remaining”, while a senior US official said Moscow’s missile stockpiles had gone down appreciably, adding that sanctions would make it harder for Russia to replenish its expensive high-end missiles.

Certainly a good sign if they've blown through their top-end in a matter of months, with no feasible way to construct more.

[Lahis]

Man, this has big "Patton's Inflatable Army" vibes to it and I love it.

So much for all Russia's "advanced capabilities" and whatnot. Some plywood and paint seems to be overcoming the might of Russia's information networks and causing them to blow money on missiles they can't afford.

Is there a chance of Russia running out of munitions like this at any point? Or functional aircraft? Last I recall they were scavenging parts from civilian aircraft and using consumer GPS devices and shit, so things can't be going much better at this point...

Advanced tech and munitions? Those might run short this year or the next because of the sanctions.

Basic artillery shells? I'm afraid Russia has enough of those to expand Black Sea to Belarus border.

[Corvus]

Advanced tech and munitions? Those might run short this year or the next because of the sanctions.

Basic artillery shells? I'm afraid Russia has enough of those to expand Black Sea to Belarus border.

Not really. There was a report on this earlier which said Russia had around 1.3 to 1.5 million tons or artillery and rocket ammo. In the first 4 months they expended 600,000 tons of it. It is now month 7 and since that time Ukraine has daily been eliminating huge ammo depots.

On top of that, for the previous decade they were making at most only 230,000 thousand tons of new ammo. They could possibly increase that but not by enough to make much of a difference.

[Makabreska]

Fk sake EU leaders not going for a full travel ban for ruskies. 80% Crimea annexation approval? 80% "special operation" support? GTFO!

[enigma77]

Fk sake EU leaders not going for a full travel ban for ruskies. 80% Crimea annexation approval? 80% "special operation" support? GTFO!

Yep the weaklings arguing that the people aren't responsible are a bunch of jokers, aren't they? Of course it's the people who are responsible for their evil government.

[Specialka]

Fk sake EU leaders not going for a full travel ban for ruskies. 80% Crimea annexation approval? 80% "special operation" support? GTFO!

A full travel ban would actually helps russian propaganda: "See? We told you they do not like Russians, etc..."

[Edge-]

A full travel ban would actually helps russian propaganda: "See? We told you they do not like Russians, etc..."

Why on earth should anyone outside of Russia give a fuck about this? Russia is going to put out propaganda no matter what. Allow travel? They'll continue spreading propaganda. Ban travel? They'll continue spreading propaganda, they just might have a piece of actual information in there as well.

What lies Russia tells their people should not factor into decisions made regarding Russia by countries not named "Russia".

[Specialka]

Why on earth should anyone outside of Russia give a fuck about this? Russia is going to put out propaganda no matter what. Allow travel? They'll continue spreading propaganda. Ban travel? They'll continue spreading propaganda, they just might have a piece of actual information in there as well.

What lies Russia tells their people should not factor into decisions made regarding Russia by countries not named "Russia".

Because like it or not, Russia, unfortunately, has many supporters outside their border. And what full ban Russia from traveling in EU would really achieve anyway ? Apart from feeding their propaganda ?

[Iphie]

Yep the weaklings arguing that the people aren't responsible are a bunch of jokers, aren't they? Of course it's the people who are responsible for their evil government.

If you think that the russian people have much choice when it comes to who leads them then I have a bridge for sale, special price for you. They may have elections but I sincerely doubt they're honest.

A full travel ban would actually helps russian propaganda: "See? We told you they do not like Russians, etc..."

Yep...like it or not but this is a valid concern. Also the US not backing a full ban is probably a concern.

Why on earth should anyone outside of Russia give a fuck about this? Russia is going to put out propaganda no matter what. Allow travel? They'll continue spreading propaganda. Ban travel? They'll continue spreading propaganda, they just might have a piece of actual information in there as well.

What lies Russia tells their people should not factor into decisions made regarding Russia by countries not named "Russia".

Because it is easier to swallow propaganda with a kernel of truth than it is propaganda without basis. Simply put, if russians can still travel then clearly we don't hate them, but if we ban travel it's because we hat them.

If you can convince a population that the rest of the world is against them then it is much easier to control them and to get them to go fight.

[Edge-]

Because like it or not, Russia, unfortunately, has many supporters outside their border.

Like who? Russian expats? Zimbabwe or something?

And what full ban Russia from traveling in EU would really achieve anyway ? Apart from feeding their propaganda ?

There are potential benefits and downsides. But the bolded is, as I've said, irrelevant.

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Because it is easier to swallow propaganda with a kernel of truth than it is propaganda without basis. Simply put, if russians can still travel then clearly we don't hate them, but if we ban travel it's because we hat them.

If you can convince a population that the rest of the world is against them then it is much easier to control them and to get them to go fight.

Yes, the kernel of truth helps. But Russia hasn't had many kernels of truth over the past 7 months yet the latest I've seen on domestic polling (taken with grains of salt) indicates that the propaganda they're using is still effective.

Stop worrying about making something your enemy is already doing successfully "easier", they're going to be successfully doing that thing regardless of how easy or hard it is.

[Specialka]

Like who? Russian expats? Zimbabwe or something?



There are potential benefits and downsides. But the bolded is, as I've said, irrelevant.

Many citizens of even European countries. I think they just want the EU gone and see Putin as a "strong and charismatic" leader.

As for the propaganda, it is not as irrelevant as you may think. As it was pointed out, propaganda with a bit of truth is easier to swallow.

When you want to enforce a sanction, you also have to take into account the price to pay and what it will yield.

What a full ban would achieve ? Not much, not that many russians has the means to travel to Europe anyway. And those who do are either already here, or are already sanctioned.

But by enacting a full ban, we fuel the russian propaganda machine.