Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shadowferal]

Putin just wants a way out...

[Makabreska]

Putin just wants a way out...

And what would he get from China? They wont send him troops/equipment or any other significant support. His only way out is withdrawal from Ukraine. Obviously, he then risks being removed by his surrounding for this major fuck up, but what other choice he has? Does he believe in some miracle come back? I hear that he may provoke other conflicts to soften West, but c'mon.

[jonnysensible]

not to mention he likely pissed china off. He signed that no limits cooperation thing. The launched a stupid invasion. Which gave blowback on Taiwan and increased spending on defense from enemies in the region, and China was threatened with explicit sanctions if they helped russia.

[YUPPIE]

And what would he get from China? They wont send him troops/equipment or any other significant support.

That's the plan, actually. People here fail to mention how pissed China is over the latest round of US tech sanctions (that are set to last a fucking decade) and their belligerent, unwavering support to Taiwan. Internally, Beijing also has its own serious economic issues.

China WANTS to pillage Taiwan to ease its burdens, but that hinges on Russia being successful in Ukraine to justify the very idea of an invasion.

[Kallisto]

That's the plan, actually. People here fail to mention how pissed China is over the latest round of US tech sanctions (that are set to last a fucking decade) and their belligerent, unwavering support to Taiwan. Internally, Beijing also has its own serious economic issues.

China WANTS to pillage Taiwan to ease its burdens, but that hinges on Russia being successful in Ukraine to justify the very idea of an invasion.

Even IF the US ceased to exist tomorrow, China would still be years away from being able to invade Taiwan. They do not have the logistics (seriously how can anyone not see that logistics is one of if not the most important thing in war outside manpower willingness to fight), they need to build a worthwhile navy (not done), landing craft (not done) and find a way to pacify the populace.

Invading Taiwan even without the US around is to China what Operation Sealion was for Nazi Germany. Not feasible.

[Jastall]

Even IF the US ceased to exist tomorrow, China would still be years away from being able to invade Taiwan. They do not have the logistics (seriously how can anyone not see that logistics is one of if not the most important thing in war outside manpower willingness to fight), they need to build a worthwhile navy (not done), landing craft (not done) and find a way to pacify the populace.

Invading Taiwan even without the US around is to China what Operation Sealion was for Nazi Germany. Not feasible.

Not to mention the economic damages. China is still highly dependent on Taiwainese microchips for its tech sector (as is the world entire) and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. Invasion means a serious disruption of the supply at best, and this best assumes the Chinese can just capture the fabs intact and get them to work without too many issues, which is quite unlikely to say the least. If the fabs are seriously sabotaged, damaged or even destroyed China, and the world, are in for very rough times, and China being so integrated to the world economy means they don't really want to recklessly mess with it.

I don't think an invasion of Taiwan is realistic anytime soon. They serve the CCP better as a saber-rattling target than as anything else. Invasion is neither feasible nor worth it for them.

[Makabreska]

Not to mention the economic damages. China is still highly dependent on Taiwainese microchips for its tech sector (as is the world entire) and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. Invasion means a serious disruption of the supply at best, and this best assumes the Chinese can just capture the fabs intact and get them to work without too many issues, which is quite unlikely to say the least. If the fabs are seriously sabotaged, damaged or even destroyed China, and the world, are in for very rough times, and China being so integrated to the world economy means they don't really want to recklessly mess with it.

I don't think an invasion of Taiwan is realistic anytime soon. They serve the CCP better as a saber-rattling target than as anything else. Invasion is neither feasible nor worth it for them.

It is not a secret Taiwan will destroy their facilities if invaded, making entire endeavour futile. China can posture all they want, it's all empty threats. They have no means of stopping the sabotage, no means of efficiently crossing the sea, would not want to test USA etc. Basically their entire army was improved in past decades, but is still completely untested. It's all another dictator delusional dream about uniting the nations. Pretty sure that current status quo is preferred by everyone.

[YUPPIE]

people are so confident Putin is such a fucking pussy he would both cow to Jinping as if he were his superior, and that he'd rather just take the way out in silent defeat than do anything actually crazy now.

[Makabreska]

people are so confident Putin is such a fucking pussy he would both cow to Jinping as if he were his superior, and that he'd rather just take the way out in silent defeat than do anything actually crazy now.

Ye, people who actually live and operate in real world and are not constantly under delusions coming from their disturbed minds.

[YUPPIE]

Ye, people who actually live and operate in real world and are not constantly under delusions coming from their disturbed minds.

HERE is the thing though: if he has DOES have little will or drive to continue a genocidal war he started, then why did he even start it at all? It was basically all for nothing top to bottom.

[Shadowferal]

It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory

Over the past six days, Ukraine’s armed forces have broken through the Russian lines in the northeastern corner of the country, swept eastward, and liberated town after town in what had been occupied territory. First Balakliya, then Kupyansk, then Izium, a city that sits on major supply routes. These names won’t mean much to a foreign audience, but they are places that have been beyond reach, impossible for Ukrainians to contact for months. Now they have fallen in hours. As I write this, Ukrainian forces are said to be fighting on the outskirts of Donetsk, a city that Russia has occupied since 2014.

The biggest shock is not Ukraine’s tactics but Russia’s response. “What really surprises us,” Lieutenant General Yevhen Moisiuk, the deputy commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, told me in Kyiv yesterday morning, “is that the Russian troops are not fighting back.”

More than that: Offered the choice of fighting or fleeing, many of them appear to be escaping as fast as they can. For several days, soldiers and others have posted photographs of hastily abandoned military vehicles and equipment, as well as videos showing lines of cars, presumably belonging to collaborators, fleeing the occupied territories. A Ukrainian General Staff report said that Russian soldiers were ditching their uniforms, donning civilian clothes, and trying to slip back into Russian territory.

The Ukrainian security service has set up a hotline that Russian soldiers can call if they want to surrender, and it has also posted recordings of some of the calls. The fundamental difference between Ukrainian soldiers, who are fighting for their country’s existence, and Russian soldiers, who are fighting for their salary, has finally begun to matter.
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Long article

[Poopymonster]

It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory

Over the past six days, Ukraine’s armed forces have broken through the Russian lines in the northeastern corner of the country, swept eastward, and liberated town after town in what had been occupied territory. First Balakliya, then Kupyansk, then Izium, a city that sits on major supply routes. These names won’t mean much to a foreign audience, but they are places that have been beyond reach, impossible for Ukrainians to contact for months. Now they have fallen in hours. As I write this, Ukrainian forces are said to be fighting on the outskirts of Donetsk, a city that Russia has occupied since 2014.

The biggest shock is not Ukraine’s tactics but Russia’s response. “What really surprises us,” Lieutenant General Yevhen Moisiuk, the deputy commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, told me in Kyiv yesterday morning, “is that the Russian troops are not fighting back.”

More than that: Offered the choice of fighting or fleeing, many of them appear to be escaping as fast as they can. For several days, soldiers and others have posted photographs of hastily abandoned military vehicles and equipment, as well as videos showing lines of cars, presumably belonging to collaborators, fleeing the occupied territories. A Ukrainian General Staff report said that Russian soldiers were ditching their uniforms, donning civilian clothes, and trying to slip back into Russian territory.

The Ukrainian security service has set up a hotline that Russian soldiers can call if they want to surrender, and it has also posted recordings of some of the calls. The fundamental difference between Ukrainian soldiers, who are fighting for their country’s existence, and Russian soldiers, who are fighting for their salary, has finally begun to matter.
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Long article

I'm curious if buildings/civilian centers/infrastructure begin going kaboom by left behind explosives.

[zealo]

I'm curious if buildings/civilian centers/infrastructure begin going kaboom by left behind explosives.

Ukraine is going to have a long term issue with land mines in the regions that Russia operated in long after this war is over, that's one thing that's for certain.

[Makabreska]

It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory

And thus, the myth of great Russian army shatters completely.

[Jastall]

It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory

Over the past six days, Ukraine’s armed forces have broken through the Russian lines in the northeastern corner of the country, swept eastward, and liberated town after town in what had been occupied territory. First Balakliya, then Kupyansk, then Izium, a city that sits on major supply routes. These names won’t mean much to a foreign audience, but they are places that have been beyond reach, impossible for Ukrainians to contact for months. Now they have fallen in hours. As I write this, Ukrainian forces are said to be fighting on the outskirts of Donetsk, a city that Russia has occupied since 2014.

The biggest shock is not Ukraine’s tactics but Russia’s response. “What really surprises us,” Lieutenant General Yevhen Moisiuk, the deputy commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, told me in Kyiv yesterday morning, “is that the Russian troops are not fighting back.”

More than that: Offered the choice of fighting or fleeing, many of them appear to be escaping as fast as they can. For several days, soldiers and others have posted photographs of hastily abandoned military vehicles and equipment, as well as videos showing lines of cars, presumably belonging to collaborators, fleeing the occupied territories. A Ukrainian General Staff report said that Russian soldiers were ditching their uniforms, donning civilian clothes, and trying to slip back into Russian territory.

The Ukrainian security service has set up a hotline that Russian soldiers can call if they want to surrender, and it has also posted recordings of some of the calls. The fundamental difference between Ukrainian soldiers, who are fighting for their country’s existence, and Russian soldiers, who are fighting for their salary, has finally begun to matter.
--------------
Long article

Normally I'd call this skinning the bear before killing it, but coupled with the deluge of news going this way the last week or so and even the Russian media and political figures not being fully on-board the affair anymore looks like, it does seem the offensive is few things short of fully routed.

If so, then hats off to the Ukrainians. I did not expect them to be able to do this regardless of the ineptitude of Russian forces. Putin's gamble looks to have failed and sadly it'll have a lot of consequences for people in Russia itself, but the Ukrainians still got the rawest deal by far in the long-term. Economy likely in tatters unless West sends tons of money and aid, mines everywhere, refugees leaving the country, thousands if not tens of thousands dead, and there's no certainty that the rowdy neighbor won't be raring for another party in a couple decades.

[Poopymonster]

Normally I'd call this skinning the bear before killing it, but coupled with the deluge of news going this way the last week or so and even the Russian media and political figures not being fully on-board the affair anymore looks like, it does seem the offensive is few things short of fully routed.

If so, then hats off to the Ukrainians. I did not expect them to be able to do this regardless of the ineptitude of Russian forces. Putin's gamble looks to have failed and sadly it'll have a lot of consequences for people in Russia itself, but the Ukrainians still got the rawest deal by far in the long-term. Economy likely in tatters unless West sends tons of money and aid, mines everywhere, refugees leaving the country, thousands if not tens of thousands dead, and there's no certainty that the rowdy neighbor won't be raring for another party in a couple decades.

Remember, Putin gave them until Sept 15th to get more Ukraine land.

[YUPPIE]

Remember, Putin gave them until Sept 15th to get more Ukraine land.

what's gonna happen if they don't? So 4 days for the actual answer, but just speculate.

[zealo]

what's gonna happen if they don't? So 4 days for the actual answer, but just speculate.

Absolutely jack shit except for more land being liberated by Ukraine, hopefully giving the tinpot dictator an ulcer from the stress he must be under in the meanwhile.

[KrayZ33]

I'm not gonna lie, I'm all for Ukraine kicking Russia out - in fact I'm even all for turning the gas station of the world into an actual gas station for the world, by force

But I still can't believe that a nation like Ukraine, who is fighting with lots of untrained personal, is able to kick another's nation, who is also fighting with untrained personal, so hard.

I just hope they remain careful and don't make any mistakes in a rush to end this.

Is the equipment they find actually working btw? Or mostly piles of shit and steel glued together?

[Kaleredar]

I'm not gonna lie, I'm all for Ukraine kicking Russia out - in fact I'm even all for turning the gas station of the world into an actual gas station for the world, by force

But I still can't believe that a nation like Ukraine, who is fighting with lots of untrained personal, is able to kick another's nation, who is also fighting with untrained personal, so hard.

I just hope they remain careful and don't make any mistakes in a rush to end this.

Is the equipment they find actually working btw? Or mostly piles of shit and steel glued together?

I'll paraphrase The Godfather II:

"The soldiers (Russians) are paid to fight; the rebels (Ukrainians) aren't. That tells you the rebels can win."