Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Makabreska]

I'd say it's over when his followers feel safe enough to demand Putin be arrested and tried for treason.

The main question is, how many are going open? Also, fat chance Putler will willingly get removed. He would be on a complete mercy of others after he looses his power.

[Iphie]

russian forces appear to have been ordered to abandon the Kharkiv oblast/area. (or made to by the Ukrainian forces.)

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/statu...23234489307136

Only some forces left on the east bank of the Oskil (?) river. According to the russians themselves.

[jonnysensible]

the only bad part of this offensive is now that they have recaptured settlements they should expect to find Bucha like horrors the orcs have left. Mass graves, stories of rape, looting and torture. Hopefully enough of the cunts responsible never made the retreat and can find their ultimate destiny as sunflower fertilizer.

[Corvus]

I'd want to see evidence first. What Russia says and what it does are two different things.

[Poopymonster]

I'd say it's over when his followers feel safe enough to demand Putin be arrested and tried for treason.

I'm more than mildly curious what the "Followers who feel safe enough" to "Window" ratio is?
The ones who are still loyal in his council, if any, are the ones I'm curious on. Ineffective middle managers are easy to defenestrate by people higher up the Putin chain.

[Iphie]

I'd want to see evidence first. What Russia says and what it does are two different things.

Quite a lot of locals raising Ukrainian flags, videos of running russians, the russian MoD showing no forces left in Kharkiv. I mean, you're right to be skeptical but you can't deny that it does appear that the russians are going away, voluntarily or by force.

https://t.me/zvezdanews/92222

Best I could find, I don't speak russian but this is the document that allegedly shows no more forces west of the river.

[Belize]

It seems more of a panic reaction. Also, shows you how loyal Putlers followers really are, suddenly NOW he is a detriment to the nation.

They have no reason to be loyal when the biggest thing keeping them in line are structurally unsound windows.

[Makabreska]

[Shadowferal]

I'm more than mildly curious what the "Followers who feel safe enough" to "Window" ratio is? The ones who are still loyal in his council, if any, are the ones I'm curious on. Ineffective middle managers are easy to defenestrate by people higher up the Putin chain.

I admit that I'm waiting to see if there's a purge of some sort.

[Makabreska]

I admit that I'm waiting to see if there's a purge of some sort.

Any attempted purge will just make him instantly gone. This is not Stalin era. If people see he goes full retard, they will get rid of him.

[Santti]

I admit that I'm waiting to see if there's a purge of some sort.

I'm fairly sure Russia has been purging for a while now. Quite a few prominent businessmen have died in a rather short time-span over there.

And who the fuck knows what fate awaits the regular folk, who had the audacity to criticize the war.

[Iphie]

I'm fairly sure Russia has been purging for a while now. Quite a few prominent businessmen have died in a rather short time-span over there.

Pure coincidence....(Yeah, no, I don't believe that either.)

And who the fuck knows what fate awaits the regular folk, who had the audacity to criticize the war.

War? What war? 15 years gulag for you! But yeah, I agree,, trying rebel might be a bit difficult

- - - Updated - - -

Chatter about russian withdrawals from positions around Kherson.

[YUPPIE]

Xi Jinping is to meet Putin personally soon, having left the security of Beijing just to do so.

[jonnysensible]

Xi Jinping is to meet Putin personally soon, having left the security of Beijing just to do so.

like a vulture about to feast on a carcass.

[Shadowferal]

Putin just wants a way out...

[Makabreska]

Putin just wants a way out...

And what would he get from China? They wont send him troops/equipment or any other significant support. His only way out is withdrawal from Ukraine. Obviously, he then risks being removed by his surrounding for this major fuck up, but what other choice he has? Does he believe in some miracle come back? I hear that he may provoke other conflicts to soften West, but c'mon.

[jonnysensible]

not to mention he likely pissed china off. He signed that no limits cooperation thing. The launched a stupid invasion. Which gave blowback on Taiwan and increased spending on defense from enemies in the region, and China was threatened with explicit sanctions if they helped russia.

[YUPPIE]

And what would he get from China? They wont send him troops/equipment or any other significant support.

That's the plan, actually. People here fail to mention how pissed China is over the latest round of US tech sanctions (that are set to last a fucking decade) and their belligerent, unwavering support to Taiwan. Internally, Beijing also has its own serious economic issues.

China WANTS to pillage Taiwan to ease its burdens, but that hinges on Russia being successful in Ukraine to justify the very idea of an invasion.

[Kallisto]

That's the plan, actually. People here fail to mention how pissed China is over the latest round of US tech sanctions (that are set to last a fucking decade) and their belligerent, unwavering support to Taiwan. Internally, Beijing also has its own serious economic issues.

China WANTS to pillage Taiwan to ease its burdens, but that hinges on Russia being successful in Ukraine to justify the very idea of an invasion.

Even IF the US ceased to exist tomorrow, China would still be years away from being able to invade Taiwan. They do not have the logistics (seriously how can anyone not see that logistics is one of if not the most important thing in war outside manpower willingness to fight), they need to build a worthwhile navy (not done), landing craft (not done) and find a way to pacify the populace.

Invading Taiwan even without the US around is to China what Operation Sealion was for Nazi Germany. Not feasible.

[Jastall]

Even IF the US ceased to exist tomorrow, China would still be years away from being able to invade Taiwan. They do not have the logistics (seriously how can anyone not see that logistics is one of if not the most important thing in war outside manpower willingness to fight), they need to build a worthwhile navy (not done), landing craft (not done) and find a way to pacify the populace.

Invading Taiwan even without the US around is to China what Operation Sealion was for Nazi Germany. Not feasible.

Not to mention the economic damages. China is still highly dependent on Taiwainese microchips for its tech sector (as is the world entire) and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. Invasion means a serious disruption of the supply at best, and this best assumes the Chinese can just capture the fabs intact and get them to work without too many issues, which is quite unlikely to say the least. If the fabs are seriously sabotaged, damaged or even destroyed China, and the world, are in for very rough times, and China being so integrated to the world economy means they don't really want to recklessly mess with it.

I don't think an invasion of Taiwan is realistic anytime soon. They serve the CCP better as a saber-rattling target than as anything else. Invasion is neither feasible nor worth it for them.