Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gabriel]

I think people are overestimating the resources required to modernize Russia. Neither Germany nor Japan had the prerequisites to become an egalitarian country. By contrast, Russia has political opposition, however weak it is currently due to censorship, and a receptive audience.

What most of the polls from which you draw the conclusion that "76% of Russians support the war" don't tell you is that the support is mostly concentrated among the old people who are on their natural way out. The younger you go, the less this war is supported, with pretty much even split on the support among 20-35 years old bracket (in a poll conducted in a non-free country, mind). After our government tried to teach "patriotism" in schools every Monday, the teachers collectively decided to teach something else instead, and children collectively decided to miss these "Lessons about the most important".

The younger generation of Russians is mostly culturally European. They don't want this war, they don't want the return of USSR or Imperial Russia, they want to be free and enjoy their lives. It would be a great misjudgment on the part of EU and the US not to seize this momentum and instead allow this generation to be lost over some old people's revanchist grudges.

It is up to those young russians to change their country, not us.

[Okacz]

It is up to those young russians to change their country, not us.

It might be more in our interest to change in than in theirs. Russians are used to this bullshit, Europe could do without regular mongolian attacks on its borders in 21 century. If there are any options to influence the Russia from the outside and try to change it to our liking (yeah, I know how it sounds, but perhaps we are past "let's wait it out" as an option), the West should be taking them.

[Iphie]

I think people are overestimating the resources required to modernize Russia. Neither Germany nor Japan had the prerequisites to become an egalitarian country. By contrast, Russia has political opposition, however weak it is currently due to censorship, and a receptive audience.

What most of the polls from which you draw the conclusion that "76% of Russians support the war" don't tell you is that the support is mostly concentrated among the old people who are on their natural way out. The younger you go, the less this war is supported, with pretty much even split on the support among 20-35 years old bracket (in a poll conducted in a non-free country, mind). After our government tried to teach "patriotism" in schools every Monday, the teachers collectively decided to teach something else instead, and children collectively decided to miss these "Lessons about the most important".

The younger generation of Russians is mostly culturally European. They don't want this war, they don't want the return of USSR or Imperial Russia, they want to be free and enjoy their lives. It would be a great misjudgment on the part of EU and the US not to seize this momentum and instead allow this generation to be lost over some old people's revanchist grudges.

I don't think anyone would want that to happen, but WE cannot interfere, this is up to you. We will help you but be prepared to be on your best behaviour for a while after the changes have come as we will very much have a 'fool me once' mentality with russia.

[Kralljin]

I say it was somewhat less successful because with Germany they were very successful in removing nationalism. Not at all with Japan. Germany is deeply ashamed of the war crimes it committed. Japan refuses they ever happened. Which was inevitable; you cannot try and convince people to acknowledge their war crimes after wiping out two cities of the map and leaving behind a legacy of misery.

Has to do with the that Americans were basically running Japan themselves and the Americans weren't as keen on removing the ideology for the sheer practical matter that it allowed them to control Japan more easily.

A lot people have argued that the Emperor should've been trialed for War crimes but wasn't because Macarthur rather kept him in place as a puppet.
Him remaining in power has caused a lot of drama down the line, when the guy visited places like Australia, it caused huge outrage among WW2 veterans of the pacific theater because the japanese treated any Allied PoW extremely poorly (because the concept of surrender didn't exist in their mentality).

In Germany, you not just had the Americans at the table but also Soviets, Brits and French, all of them carried massive scars of Nazi Aggression, which obviously wanted to stamp out that ideology very forcefully, especially because both sides started to rebuild their respective Germanies for the cold war.

I think people are overestimating the resources required to modernize Russia. Neither Germany nor Japan had the prerequisites to become an egalitarian country. By contrast, Russia has political opposition, however weak it is currently due to censorship, and a receptive audience.

The comparison doesn't work for the simple reason that Germany and Japan were defeated and surrendered unconditionally.
This gave the Allies free reign to do whatever they wanted, if either Germany or Japan had acted against the interest the Allies would've come down hard.

Russia will not surrender unconditionally (at least i hope we avoid any scenario where this might be a presumable outcome), so the west will not have nearly the same influence to enforce their rules.

Whenever people raise Germany as an example, they have to keep in mind that this aid came at the cost of Germany not being fully sovereign for half a century, meaning the Allies had a lot more freedom to act legally if Germany would've "went astray" again without violating their sovereignity.

At the end of the day, it's a fucked up situation.
Generally speaking, i'm all up for helping Russia, but the west does not have the same leverage to enforce the conditions that aid is bound to as they did over Germany / Japan.
If you however don't aid them, there's going to be an even worse bunch that will fester there.

In my view, the best solution the west can if an actual change to place is to not completely humiliate them but also let them know that the West will not make themselves dependant on Russian energy again.
Which would mean that Russian leverage over the West is effectively gone and thus stifle any expansionistic dreams for purely economic reasons.

[Corvus]

The separatists and occupationist 'governments' in all occupied Ukraine have simultaneously announced hasty referendum for the 23-27th.

On top of that you have the new law going through the Duma instituting harsh new laws for refusing to fight even when it isn't a declared war, as well as for surrendering.

[Saradain]

The separatists and occupationist 'governments' in all occupied Ukraine have simultaneously announced hasty referendum for the 23-27th.

On top of that you have the new law going through the Duma instituting harsh new laws for refusing to fight even when it isn't a declared war, as well as for surrendering.

Ah yes, pretending to annex regions they do not even fully control, so they can make more empty nuclear threats for Ukraine "invading" Russian Orcish Federation...

Truly the vilest nation on this planet. Hitler would be proud. I'm sure all the evacuatees from those regions are totally voting to join Russia while not even present

[zealo]

The separatists and occupationist 'governments' in all occupied Ukraine have simultaneously announced hasty referendum for the 23-27th.

On top of that you have the new law going through the Duma instituting harsh new laws for refusing to fight even when it isn't a declared war, as well as for surrendering.

They're panicking because they're afraid of what Ukraine will do to people that are effectively quislings and traitors to their nation, but a piece of paper isn't going to stop a Ukrainian shell.

[Iphie]

Russia is pulling some subs away from Crimea to rebase them elsewhere:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2022-09-20/

I wonder if that means they're seriously considering Crimea might be lost.

[jonnysensible]

Russia is pulling some subs away from Crimea to rebase them elsewhere:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2022-09-20/

I wonder if that means they're seriously considering Crimea might be lost.

looks like they are about to go all in?

=The Duma just passed a bill introducing the concepts of “mobilization” and “martial law” into law. The upper house could approve it tomorrow, after which Putin will sign it.
=The Donetsk People’s Republic now says it will hold a referendum to join Russia on the same dates – this weekend!
=Putin will make an address to the nation tonight about the referendums on joining Russia in occupied Ukraine, RBC reports.
=The last time he did something like this was when he announced the "special military operation" on Feb 24.


They said the referendum will be held online and with mail (the areas dont have internet or mail services atm lol). Wonder if it will 99% or 98% voting to join.

Putting together a referendum in 3 days in territory you dont control...might as well have a referendum held in kyiv!

Russia full pants on head retarded as usual.

[Corvus]

The referendum will of course pass with something ludicrous like 98% support, allowing Putin to claim Russia itself is under attack. Allows him to use conscripts (those not currently used) and punish the refusniks, of whom there are a lot. Maybe even selective mobilisation, at least in regions outside of moscow and st petersburg.

Maybe the panic in the Kremlin is related to the unconfirmed report Lyman has been liberated. Ths is a very reliable source who wouldn't call it if he had doubts.

[jonnysensible]

'The new mobilization draft bill that Russia's State Duma passed in its second and third readings today hasn't reached the Federation Council or Putin's desk. Yet the State Duma's website shows that it's already signed into law.'

very efficient.

they might as well hold a referendum on london and washington being part of russia too. 98%!

[Corvus]

Reportedly Putin and Shoigu will be addressing the nation about the referendum tonight.

This is after both China and India told Putin to stop it.

[Makabreska]

Seems like Putler is going for broke. Reeks of utter desperation.

[Saradain]

Feels bad man when Ukrainian Memes Forces is mocking Finland, and we deserve it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/uamemesfo...05055036522501

Finnish bureaucracy is the only thing here that ruins a perfectly fine reputation. Revoke all russian visas, fuck doing it the lenghty and rightful way, orcs are not honoring any agreements or laws to begin with...

Little point for finnish people to have an option for online addresses to propose new laws and rules when they can be outright denied before reaching the parliament, regardless of the support they get (50k signatures required at least). Guess I can sign the online proposal for revoking the visas and pray...

[Voidwielder]

God, I hope they conduct mass mobilization.

If hundreds and thousands of 20-something childless Ivans die in Ukraine that means fewer Russians in the next generation, a net win-win. God bless Vladimir Putin, the destroyer of Russia as a great power.

[Mazza]

looks like they are about to go all in?

=The Duma just passed a bill introducing the concepts of “mobilization” and “martial law” into law. The upper house could approve it tomorrow, after which Putin will sign it.
=The Donetsk People’s Republic now says it will hold a referendum to join Russia on the same dates – this weekend!
=Putin will make an address to the nation tonight about the referendums on joining Russia in occupied Ukraine, RBC reports.
=The last time he did something like this was when he announced the "special military operation" on Feb 24.


They said the referendum will be held online and with mail (the areas dont have internet or mail services atm lol). Wonder if it will 99% or 98% voting to join.

Putting together a referendum in 3 days in territory you dont control...might as well have a referendum held in kyiv!

Russia full pants on head retarded as usual.

So doubling down it is then.

[Iphie]

According to some news sites I read this is part of the new law:


"Russia’s State Duma rushed through a bill on Tuesday introducing extra penalties for crimes such as desertion during times of martial law and general mobilisation. It also singled out “voluntary surrender” and LOOTING as separate crimes punishable by imprisonment of 10 years and 15 years, respectively."

Bit late to go for the hearts and minds russia...

[Mazza]

Anybody knows if the news that this law is a fatal torpedo to the bow of the MOEX is true?

[Vladier]

According to some news sites I read this is part of the new law:


"Russia’s State Duma rushed through a bill on Tuesday introducing extra penalties for crimes such as desertion during times of martial law and general mobilisation. It also singled out “voluntary surrender” and LOOTING as separate crimes punishable by imprisonment of 10 years and 15 years, respectively."

Bit late to go for the hearts and minds russia...

Can one even surrender involuntarily? To my understanding, one can either surrender on their own will or be forcibly taken captive. Does surrender under duress (by being asked nicely to surrender) count as voluntary? Or does involuntary surrender have to involve a Shadow Priest casting Mind Control?

[Crispin]

I wonder if Russia would recognise Taiwans independence if they held a quick referendum on it.