1. #23681
    Pandaren Monk Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I mean we don't need to talk reparations. That would imply we want Russia to have an opinion on that matter. Rather we need to build the legal ground so all the assets frozen can be seized and given to Ukraine as reparations.

    And that is fairly crucial; funding an extensive Ukrainian reconstruction will also help repatriate all the people who fled (since there will be a surge in economic activity and thus jobs for everyone) and inevitably further integrate Ukraine in the western market economy. Some form of partnership with the EU (while joining outright is an inane proposition, a customs union or other access to the Single Market is not).
    We kinda do want russia to have a voice...at least I want that, because I have no taste for repeating the mistakes that led to WWII. I know it's a touchy subject but I'd rather bite that figurative bullet now than bite literal bullets 20-30-40 years down the road, ya know?

    That doesn't mean I want to bend over and give in, just that I think the agreements must be palatable to all.

  2. #23682
    Scarab Lord Nymrohd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    We kinda do want russia to have a voice...at least I want that, because I have no taste for repeating the mistakes that led to WWII. I know it's a touchy subject but I'd rather bite that figurative bullet now than bite literal bullets 20-30-40 years down the road, ya know?

    That doesn't mean I want to bend over and give in, just that I think the agreements must be palatable to all.
    Then you are making a mistake in your reading of history. The answer to the mistakes of WWI was not to to give the aggressor a seat on the table. It was what the US did to Germany and with less success to Japan at and after WWII; destroy, occupy, rebuild. With nukes no one would ever try this option anymore. So our only alternative is containment.

    We got where we are now PRECISELY because of a constructivist approach and Ostpolitik, because of the illusion that engagement brings familiarity and familiarity acts as a deterrent to aggression. This has been proven laughably untrue in the case of Russia. If anything, familiarity bred contempt.

  3. #23683
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    I think the US and EU are more than poised to help rebuild Ukraine. Honestly, the whole "massive reparations" thing from Russia is like asking for blood from a turnip past a certain point. They're already in dire economic straights, and that economic turmoil is only expected to increase as time goes on. Putin was already acting like proto-hitler in his actions against Ukraine, we don't need Russia to go full third reich under the crushing burden of reparations they can't possibly pay off driving them into a (even more) homicidal rampage across Europe.

    Now don't get it twisted, I've no intention of "letting Russia off easy," sanctions should absolutely remain and they should remain international pariahs until they create some sort of internal change to the contrary. They should likewise be pressured as pointedly as possible to repatriate any and all Ukrainians they kidnapped and, in fairness, pay to rebuild the infrastructure they caused the destruction of. There's no "forgive and forget," here.

    But I'm wary of "economic reparations for the sake of punishment" causing Russia to become even more unhinged. Right now the people of Russia can easily point to the war that their leadership started as being the source of their hardship, and propaganda can only fight that so hard. But if the war ends and suddenly their money is worthless, they can't afford food and it's not the direct fault of the Russian government but the "oppressive west?" That's how you get an infuriated population behind far more cavalier and extreme outwards violence.
    And do what? Get off scott free once again? The russian people support this war and Putin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Saradain View Post
    Well yes. Just that the anti-US part is heavily entrenched in anti-LGBT-wokeism thinking that they fear so fucking much that the "american influence thing" is "gonna come across the ocean and take over". I do recall a friend saying how nice Russia is as a country because they hold fast to traditional values. Who cares if they do some genociding sometimes?

    So yeah, these times bring the true colours of the said friends to light, and it is sad for me. But heyoooo, I at least can live my life without being so paranoid and afraid of random things, not exactly too concerned over these conspiracy theory fears that others may have.

    Maybe in time, after Russia is finally driven back to lick their wounds while collapsing on the side, I will know people who can admit they were so fucking wrong about so many things.
    Having being immersed in the septic tanks of Finnish chan forums, I can pretty confidently say that a lot of the anti-NATO rhetoric is spewed by actual russian bots. There are of course many YYA boomers still around, but even they hate russia more than the US rofl.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    We kinda do want russia to have a voice...at least I want that, because I have no taste for repeating the mistakes that led to WWII. I know it's a touchy subject but I'd rather bite that figurative bullet now than bite literal bullets 20-30-40 years down the road, ya know?

    That doesn't mean I want to bend over and give in, just that I think the agreements must be palatable to all.
    I'm pretty sure Germany wasn't asked after WW2 how they feel about the follow up. It should be the formula for how to deal with russia after this.

  4. #23684
    Pandaren Monk Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    I'm pretty sure Germany wasn't asked after WW2 how they feel about the follow up. It should be the formula for how to deal with russia after this.
    Pretty sure you don't want that, ever heard of the 'Wirtschaftwunder'? Yeah, I don't think a rapid recovery, reconstruction and development of russia's economy is what you want, at all. That was the result of the formula used after WWII in Germany and Austria.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirtschaftswunder

  5. #23685
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    Pretty sure you don't want that, ever heard of the 'Wirtschaftwunder'? Yeah, I don't think a rapid recovery, reconstruction and development of russia's economy is what you want, at all. That was the result of the formula used after WWII in Germany and Austria.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirtschaftswunder
    I don't mind if russia gets rapid recovery, reconstruction and development of their economy, as long as we beat the imperialistic desires out of them and force the next two generations to apologize for what russia has done until they get seizures from someone merely suggesting that they are too nationalistic.

  6. #23686
    Scarab Lord Nymrohd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    Pretty sure you don't want that, ever heard of the 'Wirtschaftwunder'? Yeah, I don't think a rapid recovery, reconstruction and development of russia's economy is what you want, at all. That was the result of the formula used after WWII in Germany and Austria.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirtschaftswunder
    You also realize that happened because of massive US investment and massive financial immigration to that region? I somehow doubt China would do something similar for Russia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    I don't mind if russia gets rapid recovery, reconstruction and development of their economy, as long as we beat the imperialistic desires out of them and force the next two generations to apologize for what russia has done until they get seizures from someone merely suggesting that they are too nationalistic.
    You would never get that unless you actually destroy the country. You cannot rebuild a state, much less a culture, unless you break it first. And if NATO steps into Russia proper with such intent then yeah, nuclear war.

  7. #23687
    Pandaren Monk Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    You also realize that happened because of massive US investment and massive financial immigration to that region? I somehow doubt China would do something similar for Russia.
    I am well aware of the factors involved, yes. However, why would China do this? They aren't a party here, Ukraine is. The analogue would be the west doing the same to russia as it did to Germany after the war: invest in the former aggressor.
    Last edited by Iphie; 2022-09-20 at 07:52 AM.

  8. #23688
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    You would never get that unless you actually destroy the country. You cannot rebuild a state, much less a culture, unless you break it first. And if NATO steps into Russia proper with such intent then yeah, nuclear war.
    So lets have it break then. Sanction russia to hell until it fractures into smaller countries.

  9. #23689
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    We kinda do want russia to have a voice...at least I want that, because I have no taste for repeating the mistakes that led to WWII. I know it's a touchy subject but I'd rather bite that figurative bullet now than bite literal bullets 20-30-40 years down the road, ya know?

    That doesn't mean I want to bend over and give in, just that I think the agreements must be palatable to all.
    Could not agree more.

    The treaty of versailles was a disaster, and Clemenceau got his way of making sure Germany paid and then some. Keynes prediction was spot on, and it'll probably be the same for Russia, if they're forced into complete submission.


    As much as I'd like to see the Russians "pay", repeating history will be a huge mistake. We can't really repeat the conclusion of WW2, since we're not going to invade Moscow.

  10. #23690
    Scarab Lord Nymrohd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    I am well aware of the factors involved, yes. However, why would china do this? They aren't a party here, Ukraine is. The analogue would be the west doing the same to russia as it did to Germany after the war: invest in the former aggressor.
    Again the only reason the US (not the West, the rest of us were in shambles) invested in Germany was that they were practically occupying it; their investment was very much secure (and it was mostly done not to stop Germany from arming again but to have Germany act as a bulwark against the Soviets). I don't exactly see what kind of scenario you are all imagining but our best case is Ukraine pushing people back to the original borders. Maybe getting Crimea back as a longshot. So . . . there is no similarity and the analogy is deeply faulty.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    So lets have it break then. Sanction russia to hell until it fractures into smaller countries.
    Yeah I just don't see that happening. Why would sanctions cause Russia to fracture? They will keep them from progressing (because unlike 1930s Germany they are entirely dependent on foreign technology that they cannot replicate)

  11. #23691
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    Yeah I just don't see that happening. Why would sanctions cause Russia to fracture? They will keep them from progressing (because unlike 1930s Germany they are entirely dependent on foreign technology that they cannot replicate)
    Have you looked at the map? russia(s size) is a freak of nature so to speak. As soon as Moscow's power is diminished enough, there will be a break up of the Soviet Union vol 2.

  12. #23692
    Scarab Lord Nymrohd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    Have you looked at the map? russia(s size) is a freak of nature so to speak. As soon as Moscow's power is diminished enough, there will be a break up of the Soviet Union vol 2.
    I've looked at the map. ALso looked at population graphs on the map. Also know how long those borders have been around. WHo exactly would be causing Russia to break? As I said earlier the only one who has the power and the claims is China and they'd never risk exposing their hand.

  13. #23693
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    We kinda do want russia to have a voice...at least I want that, because I have no taste for repeating the mistakes that led to WWII. I know it's a touchy subject but I'd rather bite that figurative bullet now than bite literal bullets 20-30-40 years down the road, ya know?

    That doesn't mean I want to bend over and give in, just that I think the agreements must be palatable to all.
    Future Russia won't be a concern like Germany was after ww1. Even before this war saw tens of thousands killed or maimed and hundreds of thousands fleeing the country their demographics were screwed. Russia in 20 or 30 years is going to be much weaker than they are even today.

  14. #23694
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I've looked at the map. ALso looked at population graphs on the map. Also know how long those borders have been around. WHo exactly would be causing Russia to break? As I said earlier the only one who has the power and the claims is China and they'd never risk exposing their hand.
    China will go balls deep in East Siberia the moment that they feel they can get away with it.

    And I will laugh and laugh and laugh...

  15. #23695
    Quote Originally Posted by Crispin View Post
    Could not agree more.

    The treaty of versailles was a disaster, and Clemenceau got his way of making sure Germany paid and then some. Keynes prediction was spot on, and it'll probably be the same for Russia, if they're forced into complete submission.


    As much as I'd like to see the Russians "pay", repeating history will be a huge mistake. We can't really repeat the conclusion of WW2, since we're not going to invade Moscow.
    One can say Russians didn't pay enough for WW2. They started as an ally of Hitler, helping out in his campaign and only turning against him because he backstabbed them like the military genious he was. Yet they got to create the new world order after WW2, and seize political control over half the Europe, despite many leaders rightfully pointing out that at this point the West is creating its own next great enemy.

    It's going to be a much greater mistake if after this conflict Russia will be allowed to return to its status quo. It would just be an invitation for them to try again in the future. In this case a barbaric state should feel the loss to the point of at the very least be afraid of doing the same shit again.

  16. #23696
    Pandaren Monk Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Okacz View Post
    One can say Russians didn't pay enough for WW2. They started as an ally of Hitler, helping out in his campaign and only turning against him because he backstabbed them like the military genious he was. Yet they got to create the new world order after WW2, and seize political control over half the Europe, despite many leaders rightfully pointing out that at this point the West is creating its own next great enemy.
    Perhaps, but it's a bit hard to punish the victor...


    It's going to be a much greater mistake if after this conflict Russia will be allowed to return to its status quo. It would just be an invitation for them to try again in the future. In this case a barbaric state should feel the loss to the point of at the very least be afraid of doing the same shit again.
    What would you suggest then? the situation isn't exactly easy, I agree russia needs to be made to see the error of it's ways and the status quo is not an option but without risking a big war with big booms russia is not going to disintegrate soon. Perhaps we should just let nature take it's course and see how much damage demographics can do. (seriously, that population pyramid is unhealthy.)

  17. #23697
    @Iphie

    You are severely underestimating just how many peoples russia has oppressed and forced under the russian federation banner.

  18. #23698
    Pandaren Monk Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    @Iphie

    You are severely underestimating just how many peoples russia has oppressed and forced under the russian federation banner.
    Perhaps, Maybe I should phrase it as follows: I don't think these peoples will revolt unless they know for sure their revolts will succeed, and without outside support I don't think that's going to happen. I'll be happy to be proven wrong though.

  19. #23699
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    Perhaps, Maybe I should phrase it as follows: I don't think these peoples will revolt unless they know for sure their revolts will succeed, and without outside support I don't think that's going to happen. I'll be happy to be proven wrong though.
    Ehh, we'll see what happens once Putin is goners. I might as well be wrong, but we'll see.

  20. #23700
    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    Ehh, we'll see what happens once Putin is goners. I might as well be wrong, but we'll see.
    Putin Goners doesn't guarantee Russian mentality to be goners, he's most likely a symptom of it, a part of the post-KGB spiderweb that has the real power in Russia. Removing a leader (which can mean anything from retirement to public killing) after he lost (or even "didn't win") a war might lead to leaders that are better at winning wars, not necessarily not starting them.

    Remember that Putin was absolutely fine playing the economic game for years, and only now "suprised" half the EU by starting a war of barbaric conquest. Studying why he found it necessary to abandon the clearly superior diplomatic route that gave him money and influence over the EU in order to start fighting Ukraine might be a key here. Not just to figuring out Putins next moves but the mentality of the Russian state as a whole.

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