Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

No sane person thinks russia is going to win.

[Iphie]

Yea, russian mobilization is sure to solve it. They’ll just let them use the good military vehicles/equipment they’ve been saving. Wouldn’t have been fun to give that stuff to first army, things might’ve been over too soon!

Imagine for a moment that this would be the case though, wouldn't you be a tad upset? I know I would if I were a soldier.

[alach]

So this is his endgame.
Hes gonna hold the fake referedums on the weekend, absorb them as provinces of russia, and declare victory. Remember how fast he moved when this all started.
It is what he has been after all along, the untapped gas fields in the northeast.

Its gonna put the west in a tricky position.

[Corvus]

The west have already said that any referendum will be ignored. Ukraine isn't going to stop fighting and will continue to take back land. The west will continue to supply weapons.

Putin and the Kremlin are in full blown panic mode. As Darth Putin said 'my bluff has been called even before I played it.'

[Cynep]

I'm the only one here to give an insight from the Ukrainian view on these referenda. (that guy from Kyiv went to fight, I hope he's fine).

While this attempt to reframe the conflict from a special operation of "denazification" into a defensive war for Russia is indeed escalatory and worrisome, for Ukraine is still means that taking Kherson or Donetsk or Crimea is legal, justified and okay. It also can and will be interpreted that taking a part of what Russia calls Russian territory is legal, justified and okay. Therefore, splitting Russia up into small parts Scroe-style is legal, justified and okay. Sorry Vladier, sorry Iphie and other moderates. If these referenda happen, for Ukrainians it's either they get genocided or Russia becomes permanently weaker than Ukraine. You know how Bismarck's life mission was to make then-hegemonic France weaker than Prussia. Only it's harsher for Ukrainians, France didn't even think about genociding Prussia.

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thats actually a standard in war dating back thousands of years.

in order to truly conquer a region:
1. take the children of that region into your region
2. educate them in your schools and instill your values and culture in them.
3. send them back as adults to rule over the region that was conquered.

this enables you to completely blank out and permanently destroy the culture of that region in just one generation.

thats been done many times. you can erase a culture super quick.

Eh, it's only partially true. The process you described was successfully done by Poland to Ukraine by early 1600's (and less thoroughly and less successfully to Lithuania later). The result is that Ukraine for centuries has only low-class culture focussed on indestructibility. Upper and middle classes were completely polonized but entire culture wan't destroyed, it changed to permanent guerrilla.

[Corvus]

Putin has apparently ordered partial mobilisation. Uncertain as to what that means exactly. Probably means Moscow/St Petersburg excempt but nowhere else.

[alach]

Im almost tempted to lean towards letting him have it for now if it would put the end of the active fighting and work on getting the world back on track again.

Russia will still be a pariah and sanctioned for generations, they will not get stronger. Ukraine can join the EU and nato and work on moving forward.
I imagine there will be an ongoing insurgency in the newly russified region forever as well.

Looks to me like he wants to end this fast. A mobilization to protect his new terrority.

[Liftbrul]

Probably means Moscow/St Petersburg excempt but nowhere else.

Wouldn't want the little darlings of the elite to get turned into paste by Ukie artillery. That's what the poor & ethnic are for.

[Corvus]

Usual drivel from Putin. Everything is the West's fault. They made him invade Ukraine. They want to destroy Russia. etc etc and so on.

[Kaleredar]

no sane person thinks russia will lose to ukraine. they will declare war if they must. but they will win.

It's been six months of a three-day operation and Russia hasn't just stalled out, they're losing their early gains and have begun to withdraw forces from places they controlled prior to the invasion.

We'll see what their "partial mobilization" panic mode results in, but they weren't able to supply the troops they had with basically unlimited prep time, and I've seen no indication that any of their infrastructure, supply lines, or technology has improved since they started the war. In fact, all of those things seem to have gotten worse.

[jonnysensible]

Putin is desperate to turn Russia into the ultimate stag-do destination. Cheap booze, lots of single women. Top lad.

His attempts to claim the referendum will mean its russia proper and then he said '"If its territorial integrity is threatened Russia will use all the means at its disposal. This is not a bluff."'

what a joke.

Whats to stop him saying we are having an online referendum about Riga, London and New York joining Russia. ooof 99% want to join its now Russia!

[Iphie]

So partial mobilisation it is, I wonder whether the delay in his speech was that he was going to order full mobilisation but got talked out of that? Anyway, for now Ukraine can still fight on.

[Nymrohd]

The west have already said that any referendum will be ignored. Ukraine isn't going to stop fighting and will continue to take back land. The west will continue to supply weapons.

Putin and the Kremlin are in full blown panic mode. As Darth Putin said 'my bluff has been called even before I played it.'

I mean I doubt it is just the west that will ignore them. Do you think China or India would acknowledge annexations through referenda at gunpoint? Or any of Russia's "allies" that share a border?

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Putin is desperate to turn Russia into the ultimate stag-do destination. Cheap booze, lots of single women. Top lad.

His attempts to claim the referendum will mean its russia proper and then he said '"If its territorial integrity is threatened Russia will use all the means at its disposal. This is not a bluff."'

what a joke.

Whats to stop him saying we are having an online referendum about Riga, London and New York joining Russia. ooof 99% want to join its now Russia!

China should hold an online referendum on Outer Manchuria

[jonnysensible]

this is why all dictators on planet earth should be violently removed.

'let me win or ill nuke you'

[Crispin]

I mean I doubt it is just the west that will ignore them. Do you think China or India would acknowledge annexations through referenda at gunpoint? Or any of Russia's "allies" that share a border?

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China should hold an online referendum on Outer Manchuria

Time for Taiwan to hold an online referendum for independence if China recognises these sham referenda.

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I'm the only one here to give an insight from the Ukrainian view on these referenda. (that guy from Kyiv went to fight, I hope he's fine).

While this attempt to reframe the conflict from a special operation of "denazification" into a defensive war for Russia is indeed escalatory and worrisome, for Ukraine is still means that taking Kherson or Donetsk or Crimea is legal, justified and okay. It also can and will be interpreted that taking a part of what Russia calls Russian territory is legal, justified and okay. Therefore, splitting Russia up into small parts Scroe-style is legal, justified and okay. Sorry Vladier, sorry Iphie and other moderates. If these referenda happen, for Ukrainians it's either they get genocided or Russia becomes permanently weaker than Ukraine. You know how Bismarck's life mission was to make then-hegemonic France weaker than Prussia. Only it's harsher for Ukrainians, France didn't even think about genociding Prussia.

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Eh, it's only partially true. The process you described was successfully done by Poland to Ukraine by early 1600's (and less thoroughly and less successfully to Lithuania later). The result is that Ukraine for centuries has only low-class culture focussed on indestructibility. Upper and middle classes were completely polonized but entire culture wan't destroyed, it changed to permanent guerrilla.

Where do you see this situation 6 months from now?

[Iphie]

I mean I doubt it is just the west that will ignore them. Do you think China or India would acknowledge annexations through referenda at gunpoint? Or any of Russia's "allies" that share a border?

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China should hold an online referendum on Outer Manchuria

China doesn't even recognise Crimea as part of russia, so I really doubt they'll accept this.

[Nymrohd]

China doesn't even recognise Crimea as part of russia, so I really doubt they'll accept this.

I mean it is a disastrous precedent for any sovereign nation to accept. There is a reason self-determination for a people has only been recognized in extreme cases and only with near the entire international community in agreement of those cases.

[Kaleredar]

China doesn't even recognise Crimea as part of russia, so I really doubt they'll accept this.

China seems pretty keen on "supporting Russia in word only." As in, they'll say and do anything to help Russia... that doesn't actually help them fight, because they value their monetary connections to western countries far more than they care about Russian megalomania.

But China saying "Yeah sure, Russia owns Crimea, why not" is basically no skin off their bones, so I wouldn't be too sure about that.

[Cynical Asshole]

China seems pretty keen on "supporting Russia in word only." As in, they'll say and do anything to help Russia... that doesn't actually help them fight, because they value their monetary connections to western countries far more than they care about Russian megalomania.

But China saying "Yeah sure, Russia owns Crimea, why not" is basically no skin off their bones, so I wouldn't be too sure about that.

The ever money greedy China won't do anything that could endanger relations with the West. China really REALLY doesn't want sanctions, especially not over supporting Putin's small peepee operation. Maybe over invading Taiwan, yes, because Taiwan is a huge prize economically speaking, but Ukraine holds 0 value for China.

So yes, other than flying over battlefields with a huge banner saying "Go Russia!", China won't do anything.

[Kaleredar]

The ever money greedy China won't do anything that could endanger relations with the West. China really REALLY doesn't want sanctions, especially not over supporting Putin's small peepee operation.

Yeah, but them simply saying that they think Crimea and any other Ukrainian territories belong to Russia is that exact level of weaseling, center-line they've liked to tow where they 1) condone Russia's actions to give Russia internal propaganda and look like stalwart allies all while 2) not actually committing to doing anything themselves at a level where 3) Western countries still wouldn't be bothered to affect any sanctions against China over a mere statement.

It's like when Russia and China participated in those co-training military exercises. It makes Russia think China is a fastidious ally who's cooperating with them without China aiding Russia's combat efforts in any actual way and was so brief that other countries didn't even debate sanctioning China over it.