Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...s-draft-a78874

So Chechnya is just saying "nope" to this draft?

Yeah, chechnya is a bit of a special case due to being putins enforcers.

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In a genius move, putin sent his instructors to the war before mobilising troops who need training. One of their shooting instructors has been confirmed killed now.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1...UggPVKkQJa33hg

[Low Hanging Fruit]

Plus I am not sure if more boots is exactly what Russia needs. If you are having trouble feeding, clothing, and warming 20 people it only gets harder when you make that 20 a 100. Nukes aren't exactly a weapon you want to use in a war right outside your boarder. It just takes a change in direction of the wind for the weapon being just as effective on you as it was on your enemy.

[Fantomen]

in history no army has ever held back on their best weapon

Nazi Germany did have chemical wepons, like Sarin. But did never use it.

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No Russia is not going to use a nuke over some land in Ukraine.

Compare to Khrushchev who "exiled" his political rivals by assign them to a mid-level manager position in the periphery, and was later "exiled" himself. Putin have murded his political rivals, so he have to ride the tiger to the end. So he might play the nuclear card as his last gamble....

[Iphie]

Yeah, chechnya is a bit of a special case due to being putins enforcers.

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In a genius move, putin sent his instructors to the war before mobilising troops who need training. One of their shooting instructors has been confirmed killed now.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1...UggPVKkQJa33hg

Still, Kadyrov was the most vocal about mobilization AND said that if Moscow didn't do it then regions should self mobilise so this actually is hypocrisy of the highest order.

[zealo]

Some of those images of Azovstal prisoners released looks like they came straight out of a nazi concentration camp in 1945 with the shape they're in, nasty treatment they've been subject to.

[Mekh]

Nazi Germany did have chemical wepons, like Sarin. But did never use it.

IIRC chemical weapons were a bit too much, even for Hitler after what he saw in World War I or so the story goes.

[Forogil]

IF they use a nuclear weapon (and that is a MASSIVE IF) it could be one of their smaller tactical nuclear weapons. IIRC the smallest one the US has is about 20 tons (in comparison, the one on Hiroshima was 15 kiloton) and presumably Russia has even smaller yields than those.

It's more complicated: the smallest ones that the US have seem to all be variable-yield, so you in some way set a dial of "small boom" (0.3 kiloton), "medium boom" (5 or 10 kiloton), or "huge boom" (80 kiloton) - but it's the same bomb. The idea is that you sometimes want to be able take out a small target and then capture the town - instead of taking out the town (at least that's the peace-time idea).

I assume the Russian ones are similar. I don't think they will use them (but I find it worrying that I'm seeing serious papers having briefs about them) - but I understand one concern is that it is tempting to use them with the smallest yield claiming that it isn't that much different from a conventional weapon and also that you cannot really trust Russian soldiers to set the dial correctly.

[Makabreska]

I assume the Russian ones are similar. I don't think they will use them (but I find it worrying that I'm seeing serious papers having briefs about them) - but I understand one concern is that it is tempting to use them with the smallest yield claiming that it isn't that much different from a conventional weapon and also that you cannot really trust Russian soldiers to set the dial correctly.

Serious papers keep talking about them each time Putler mentions them and/or mobilizes his orcs (so they kept talking about them since December). It's boring, and only helps fuelling Y̶u̶p̶p̶i̶e̶ the panic.

[Lahis]

So Donbass "Referendum" today. Will "join Russia" win by 99% of votes or will they atleast try to make it look believeable?

[Warning]

Partial mobilization is as much of a coping term as special military operation was. I expect there will be practically no limitations except the connections and wealth of those called up.

[Hansworst]

So Donbass "Referendum" today. Will "join Russia" win by 99% of votes or will they atleast try to make it look believeable?

Already started yesterday and will continue to at least till Sunday, I think.
Saw some footage yesterday, nothing says democracy as two Russian soldiers accompanying the vote box, so you can vote DA without any privacy at gunpoint.
All the no-voters already fled the area, in fear of exactly that.

My guess is that if Putin did the same thing to the Donbas, as he did with Crimea, organize a fake referendum and then annex it, NATO wouldn't be so helpful to Ukraine as they are now.
Putin overreached when he invaded the other area's.

[Fuiking]

I really wish people would stop entertaining the idea of nukes.
No Russia is not going to use a nuke over some land in Ukraine. No one is going to allow Russia to become the first nation since WW2 to use a nuclear weapon in war.

It
Is
Not
Going
To
Happen

Im saving that statement just in case they really have a pants on head moment... Just hope and pray to whatever is out there they dont.

[Iphie]

My guess is that if Putin did the same thing to the Donbas, as he did with Crimea, organize a fake referendum and then annex it, NATO wouldn't be so helpful to Ukraine as they are now.
Putin overreached when he invaded the other area's.

That seems to be an accepted theory, yes. The problem with that would have been ramped up NATO support outside of those areas so then the Donbass would have been the last thing he could have gotten as the rest would have had their defenses shored up and since putin is on notice he wants to grab as much as he can. (On notice = he doesn't have eternal life and is about 70 so his health will fail at some point if it isn't already failing.)

[Lahis]

Im saving that statement just in case they really have a pants on head moment... Just hope and pray to whatever is out there they dont.

After the "referendum" all bets are off since Ukraine "attacking" "Russian" territory could be labeled as "existencial threat".

At that point it is up to Yesmen around Putin to say no for once.

[Rustedsaint]

Personally I would accept an actual referdum if it was overseen by a group of neutral observers and Russia withdrew all their troops

[Gorsameth]

After the "referendum" all bets are off since Ukraine "attacking" "Russian" territory could be labeled as "existencial threat".

At that point it is up to Yesmen around Putin to say no for once.

Ukraine has already stuck inside Russian territory in the past. Didn't nuke then. won't nuke now.

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Im saving that statement just in case they really have a pants on head moment... Just hope and pray to whatever is out there they dont.

I suppose I will be happy if it happens that we are still around to tell me I was wrong.

[Makabreska]

After the "referendum" all bets are off since Ukraine "attacking" "Russian" territory could be labeled as "existencial threat".

At that point it is up to Yesmen around Putin to say no for once.

Why are you turning into Yuppie with this nukes hysteria?

[Kralljin]

Nazi Germany did have chemical wepons, like Sarin. But did never use it.

Yeah, because they've been "made aware of" that the Allies had a huge stockpile of chemicals weapons as well and would use them if the Nazis started using it.

If Russia starts using nukes, then Ukraine likely just has to ask for any weapon system that's not banned by any convention or treaty to receive it.

[Azadina]

Yeah, because they've been "made aware of" that the Allies had a huge stockpile of chemicals weapons as well and would use them if the Nazis started using it.

If Russia starts using nukes, then Ukraine likely just has to ask for any weapon system that's not banned by any convention or treaty to receive it.

Then their occupation of Ukraine will be terminated in extremely swift fashion. West simply cannot afford to let that slide with anything less than moving in, and removing their presence.

[Kralljin]

Then their occupation of Ukraine will be terminated in extremely swift fashion. West simply cannot afford to let that slide with anything less than moving in, and removing their presence.

I do not see the West ever intervening in Ukraine unless Russia makes the first move by directly attacking a Nato member.

Ukraine is at the end of the day not a Nato member and intervening there would just turn any Nato country into a legitimate military target.