Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shalcker]

2) Can you name a time in the last decade where a nato member other than the US has invoked article 5 and the US helped? No?

By all indications Turkey strongly wanted to invoke it over Syria.

Multiple times over the years.

They weren't allowed to do it.

[Crispin]

This thread is like a bad dejavu. Next up, Shalcker telling everyone Russias invasion is not Russia, but locals in tanks bought in local shops, and Ulmita arguing why the it’s the west’ own fault if Russia nukes cities, cus NATO could just have stopped accepting soveriegn countries without asking Russia first.

I for one am looking forward to lots of laughs, from those 2 crazy posters posts over the next months.

Meanwhile, most people realise that Putin is resorting to the good ‘old and tried’ tactic of “omg an external threat, only I can protect our nation!!1”, when popularity is shit and covid isnt making it any better.

[Easo]

Putin making threats again.

Vladimir Putin threatens 'military-technical' reaction to NATO over Ukraine.

Does that mean more trolls and sockpuppets on gaming forums?

In addition to this speech the defence minister Shoigu too had a verbal vommit:

https://twitter.com/RT_russian/statu...46050311938053
https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...52813773975554

He went full Lukashenko and said that American PMC's (think Blackwater) are preparing chemical attack in Donbas for provocation.

I also love the words Putin used - military technical reaction. WTF does that even mean?

[Ulmita]

This thread is like a bad dejavu. Next up, Shalcker telling everyone Russias invasion is not Russia, but locals in tanks bought in local shops, and Ulmita arguing why the it’s the west’ own fault if Russia nukes cities, cus NATO could just have stopped accepting soveriegn countries without asking Russia first.

I for one am looking forward to lots of laughs, from those 2 crazy posters posts over the next months.

Meanwhile, most people realise that Putin is resorting to the good ‘old and tried’ tactic of “omg an external threat, only I can protect our nation!!1”, when popularity is shit and covid isnt making it any better.

Please do not say things that I haven't said. All I said is that the US violated NTP first by stationing nukes outside US, which is a fact.

In other news, more hardware is shipped to the border https://avia.pro/news/ogromnyy-zhele...inskoy-granicy

[Crispin]

Please do not say things that I haven't said. All I said is that the US violated NTP first by stationing nukes outside US, which is a fact.

In other news, more hardware is shipped to the border https://avia.pro/news/ogromnyy-zhele...inskoy-granicy

Sorry, I should have realised that the Ulmita account had been passed on to a new employee, since the fool that was posting on it in 2014-2016, most likely got fired for sheer stupidity.

[Ulmita]

Sorry, I should have realised that the Ulmita account had been passed on to a new employee, since the fool that was posting on it in 2014-2016, most likely got fired for sheer stupidity.

Why are you making this personal and start insulting me?
Have my predictions not be spot on, every single time?

- - - Updated - - -

In addition to this speech the defence minister Shoigu too had a verbal vommit:

https://twitter.com/RT_russian/statu...46050311938053
https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...52813773975554

He went full Lukashenko and said that American PMC's (think Blackwater) are preparing chemical attack in Donbas for provocation.

I also love the words Putin used - military technical reaction. WTF does that even mean?

I am also confused, but it must be something like that: https://avia.pro/news/rossiyskie-kom...kaza-nato-idti

[Easo]

I am also confused, but it must be something like that: https://avia.pro/news/rossiyskie-kom...kaza-nato-idti

That pretty much would equal war declaration plus the whole article is just retarded propaganda piece about unbeatable Russian weaponry.
The only thing it lacks is aналогов нет.

[Ulmita]

That pretty much would equal war declaration plus the whole article is just retarded propaganda piece about unbeatable Russian weaponry.
The only thing it lacks is aналогов нет.

Meh, this is how in general the Russians present their weapons: unbeatable awesome sauce 8th gen etc...
Not sure about your comment about declaration of war

[AntiFascistVoter]

In addition to this speech the defence minister Shoigu too had a verbal vommit:

https://twitter.com/RT_russian/statu...46050311938053
https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...52813773975554

He went full Lukashenko and said that American PMC's (think Blackwater) are preparing chemical attack in Donbas for provocation.

I also love the words Putin used - military technical reaction. WTF does that even mean?

I saw his briefing as well. It's a lazy copypasta of their Syria strat.
Shoguy is laying groundwork for thee information battlefield. Preparing for a provocation that can be pinned on Ukraine, US or NATO (or all 3). They will be used as part of an excuse to justify an invasion.

[Easo]

Meh, this is how in general the Russians present their weapons: unbeatable awesome sauce 8th gen etc...
Not sure about your comment about declaration of war

Because using electronic warfare systems on someone, like in this case the threat of turning everything off for half a Europe is an act of war.

I saw his briefing as well. It's a lazy copypasta of their Syria strat.
Shoguy is laying groundwork for thee information battlefield. Preparing for a provocation that can be pinned on Ukraine, US or NATO (or all 3). They will be used as part of an excuse to justify an invasion.

Or just another internal propaganda item like the recent ultimatum ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Shalcker]

Looking at current press-conference overall position seems to be the same - "stop encouraging Ukraine from solving Donbass problem through force" (while leaving potential for response to any such forced solution).

So, again, as long Ukraine does nothing stupid no invasion is going to happen.

[Easo]

Putin keeps ultimatuing

Russia-Ukraine crisis: Putin says ball in West's court

Putin: "We didn't come to the US or UK borders, no, they came to ours"
Russian President Vladimir Putin has called on the West to give immediate security guarantees to defuse a crisis prompted by Russia's military build-up near Ukraine's borders.

"It's you who must give us guarantees, and give them immediately, now," he said in his annual press conference.

Mr Putin has demanded that Nato abandon military activity in Eastern Europe and not admit Ukraine as a member.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59766810

And another small update:

There is supposed to be another ceasefire agreement brokered between Ukraine, "republics", Russia and if I am not mistaken OSCE mission as well.
From what I can read it is not going very well, held one day only until the first incident.

Looking at current press-conference overall position seems to be the same - "stop encouraging Ukraine from solving Donbass problem through force" (while leaving potential for response to any such forced solution).

So, again, as long Ukraine does nothing stupid no invasion is going to happen.

And what that stupid thing would be? Please do explain...

[Shalcker]

Putin keeps ultimatuing



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59766810

And another small update:

There is supposed to be another ceasefire agreement brokered between Ukraine, "republics", Russia and if I am not mistaken OSCE mission as well.
From what I can read it is not going very well, held one day only until the first incident.

Seems to be mostly working:
In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 50 ceasefire violations, including three explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 564 ceasefire violations in the region.
In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded no ceasefire violations. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 49 ceasefire violations in the region.

And what that stupid thing would be? Please do explain...

Something like "Because those Russians have no respect for ceasefire we have no choice but to respond with full force to resolve this conflict once and for all".

[Easo]

So Putin did yet another verbal vommit during his annual end of year speech:

That NATO "swindled" Russia repeatedly by expanding east. From the rest of the text this looks to be about the old undocumented story about how NATO supposedly promised Moscow to not do that.

That regarding attack on Ukraine NATO should immediately provide guarantees, not Russia.

And you are demanding guarantees from me. It is you who must give us guarantees, and you must do it immediately, right now, instead of talking about it for decades and doing what you want, while talking quietly about the need for security guarantees to everyone. This is the point. Are we threatening anyone?

Uh yes, yes you are...

Some whining about how USA and NATO had the hand in USSR's breakup and that Russia can only be defeated from within. (ex)Commies still don't get it, do they?

Then he went into question about Ukraine's existence - how no one is talking about it's creation and that it was made by Lenin.
It pretty much screams Страна 404, the saying popular in Russia - Country 404 aka the country which does not exist/is not real (in case someone does not get it - 404 is the error code your web browser returns when it cannot find the website). Putin does not talk empty words for no reason, hard to imagine this was said without one. Hey, Shalcker - your country is another step closer to becoming the monster you so desperately see everywhere.

That they are not supressing media. Right...

And finally some blah blah about how their economy is doing good and fight against Covid should continue. Yes, yes it should, since it is going really badly.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67438

Seems to be mostly working:
In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 50 ceasefire violations, including three explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 564 ceasefire violations in the region.
In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded no ceasefire violations. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 49 ceasefire violations in the region.

Something like "Because those Russians have no respect for ceasefire we have no choice but to respond with full force to resolve this conflict once and for all".

So "not very well", as I said, but kinda keeps going.

Ah yes, the suicidal Ukrainians are all retards and want to go zerg rush the Donetsk. Use something realistic next time, Shalcker.

P.S.
Russia for some reason has no issue with using force for the "territorial integrity". Others are not allowed to? Purely a technical question.

[Shalcker]

Ah yes, the suicidal Ukrainians are all retards and want to go zerg rush the Donetsk. Use something realistic next time, Shalcker.

That's what it would take for all those amassed troops to move instead of purely posturing.

As you are aware that to be suicidal, you have to agree it is unlikely to happen.

Putin can escalate at any time; but specifically now there is no internal reason to do so.

So, why not assume he is hopped up on his own propaganda (as many in modern world do), with his intelligence filtering him what they believe matches his sensibilities, and thus honestly believes that Ukraine plans to attack separatists Georgia-style - as he says?

It doesn't have to be any kind of 4D-chess.

P.S.
Russia for some reason has no issue with using force for the "territorial integrity". Others are not allowed to? Purely a technical question.

There is peaceful option on the table that Ukraine refuses to use.

You are allowed to use it - and others are allowed to smack you down for it. See Kosovo as an example.

Just how modern world works.

[Easo]

That's what it would take for all those amassed troops to move instead of purely posturing.

As you are aware that to be suicidal, you have to agree it is unlikely to happen.

Putin can escalate at any time; but specifically now there is no internal reason to do so.

So, why not assume he is hopped up on his own propaganda (as many in modern world do), with his intelligence filtering him what they believe matches his sensibilities, and thus honestly believes that Ukraine plans to attack separatists Georgia-style - as he says?

It doesn't have to be any kind of 4D-chess.

There is peaceful option on the table that Ukraine refuses to use.

You are allowed to use it - and others are allowed to smack you down for it. See Kosovo as an example.

Just how modern world works.

Yes, it is unlikely to happen, only Russia's propaganda can assume that Ukrainians are going to genocide the "republics". And it's basic military sense to concentrate where your closest and immediate enemy is, in this case - Donbas region militias.
I have zero reason to think that Putin is a an idiot. Therefore I don't assume much.

Just like Russia refused to use peaceful options so far? Also, there is no real peaceful option. The "great fighters against nazism" in Donbas would never disarm unless forced to by Moscow - which is unlikely. And trying to reintegrate a 30k militia armed to the teeth back into Ukraine is an idiocy, said militia would simply not do it.

[Shalcker]

Just like Russia refused to use peaceful options so far? Also, there is no real peaceful option. The "great fighters against nazism" in Donbas would never disarm unless forced to by Moscow - which is unlikely. And trying to reintegrate a 30k militia armed to the teeth back into Ukraine is an idiocy, said militia would simply not do it.

Did Ukraine failed to re-integrate similarly armed right-wing militias? Don't see why it wouldn't work.

Minsk agreements explicitly called for their amnesty; if Ukraine would follow that framework they could be coerced to follow it, just like they were coerced into signing them.

Obviously it is impossible while Ukraine constantly proves that it has no desire to follow any agreements or even talk to people on occupied territories, instead piling everything on Russia - similar to how Russia has no desire talking to Ukraine and wants to go straight to US which they see as puppeteer behind it.

[Easo]

Did Ukraine failed to re-integrate similarly armed right-wing militias? Don't see why it wouldn't work.

Minsk agreements explicitly called for their amnesty; if Ukraine would follow that framework they could be coerced to follow it, just like they were coerced into signing them.

Obviously it is impossible while Ukraine constantly proves that it has no desire to follow any agreements or even talk to people on occupied territories, instead piling everything on Russia - similar to how Russia has no desire talking to Ukraine and wants to go straight to US which they see as puppeteer behind it.

You again are mistaking finger with a dick...
1. They were under Ukraine's command and more or less complied with Kiev, those in Donbas would only listen to Moscow. Following framework applies to them as well. I just have the realistic view of things, zero reason to believe Moscow would just let it go and loose this "hook" on Ukraine".
2. They have been mostly removed "from power" over the years and professional army took over as it recovered.

Well, Russia's obsession with "puppets" is fascinating. You really still don't get it at all.

[Shalcker]

You again are mistaking finger with a dick...
1. They were under Ukraine's command and more or less complied with Kiev, those in Donbas would only listen to Moscow. Following framework applies to them as well. I just have the realistic view of things, zero reason to believe Moscow would just let it go and loose this "hook" on Ukraine".

Ukraine has zero ability to implement any other solution.

"Ukraine doesn't need to do anything and Russia just has to give everything back without question" isn't going to happen.

2. They have been mostly removed "from power" over the years and professional army took over as it recovered.

Likewise there have been rotation from fervent "Russian World believers" to more pragmatic people (including locals) on rebel side.

- - - Updated - - -

Reuters: More than 10,000 Russian troops returning to bases after drills near Ukraine -Interfax

-----
MOSCOW, Dec 25 (Reuters) - More than 10,000 Russian troops have been returning to their permanent bases after month-long drills near Ukraine, Interfax news agency reported on Saturday, citing the Russian military.

Interfax said the drills were held in several regions near Ukraine, including in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, as well as in the southern Russian regions of Rostov and Kuban.

Russia's deployment of tens of thousands of troops to the north, east and south of Ukraine had fuelled fears in Kyiv and Western capitals that Moscow was planning an attack.

Russia denies any such plans, saying it needs pledges from the West - including a promise from NATO not to expand the alliance eastward towards Russian borders - because its own security is threatened by Ukraine's growing ties with the Western alliance.

Moscow also says that it can deploy its troops on its territory as it sees fit.

Estimates for the number of Russian troops recently moved closer to Ukraine vary from 60,000 to 90,000, with one U.S. intelligence document suggesting that number could be ramped up as high as 175,000.

"A stage of combat coordination of divisions, combat crews, squads at motorized units... has been completed. More than 10,000 military servicemen... will march to their permanent deployment from the territory of the combined arms' area of drills," Interfax quoted the army as saying.
-----

Why do people keep falling for this posturing and treat it like imminent invasion, letting Putin stroke his ego?

Do you think he'll attack the moment you stop reacting?

[Easo]

Ukraine has zero ability to implement any other solution.

Well, yes, since Russia will invade again (and lie about it and you will keep denying it here) in case they tried to solve it via force (which Ukraine can do). "Republics" cannot exist without Russia backing them.

Good that you know that... Radicals have either been killed (Possibly by all three sides in this conflict. Ironic.) or removed from power. Which does bring the secondary question as to why even mention Ukraine's ones in the first place, knowing that both sides have sidelined their extremists?

Ah yes, month long training with no one really training. Shalcker. We may be dumb, but we are not that dumb.