Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Nymrohd]

Well, if you want to go down that rabbit hole, strictly speaking, the US has the means and motive to do it. Less a question of NATO, more one of 'buy our gas instead of Russias'. Not saying they did it, though.

Also forces the hand of Europe; they cannot get cold feet with sanctions during the winter over gas if they cannot get any gas. And as you said, not saying they did. And I am not saying it because I think enough investigative effort will go in this that if they did, EU would find out and it would not be pretty. The risk is just not worth the effort.

[Skulltaker]

Also forces the hand of Europe; they cannot get cold feet with sanctions during the winter over gas if they cannot get any gas. And as you said, not saying they did. And I am not saying it because I think enough investigative effort will go in this that if they did, EU would find out and it would not be pretty. The risk is just not worth the effort.

Well, you can go even further down the rabbit hole and say that there are those within the EU who know about it, and help covering it up for personal gain. Then again, there's probably not going to be definitive proof of who did it, and Russia has a habit of shooting themselves in the foot to hurt others.

[Nymrohd]

Well, you can go even further down the rabbit hole and say that there are those within the EU who know about it, and help covering it up for personal gain. Then again, there's probably not going to be definitive proof of who did it, and Russia has a habit of shooting themselves in the foot to hurt others.

Or to go the other way, it could be Russia doing it but for INTERNAL reasons, removing the bargaining chip of any within Russia who think that they could replace Putin and return to normalcy since they would not have gas to trade for sanction relief. It could even be China making sure Russia cannot really get away from its growing dependence on the yuan.

[Slant]

Well, if you want to go down that rabbit hole, strictly speaking, the US has the means and motive to do it. Less a question of NATO, more one of 'buy our gas instead of Russias'. Not saying they did it, though.

Not how the US conducts business, usually.

[Crispin]

Well Tucker Carlson may be a phedophile, I'm not sayin he is, but if he is, then he should get hanged for kidnapping small babies and molesting them and starving them to death, it's an interesting thought.

That rhetoric of his is so stupid, it's just vomiting silly ideas with zero reasoning behind it.

As long as Putin is running Russia and/or his successor is a similar cold war remnant, NS1 and NS2 wont open up again. It's a free round for Putin to destroy them, since they're useless within his reigning period.

Add how it moved focus from the "elections", gave idiots and especially Russian stream tv users some fuel to blame the US for backstabbing the EU while bombing Russia.

For anyone else who arent morons and see it for what it is, realise that it's a veiled threat towards underwater infrastructure.

Russia should stick to hybrid warfare, cus they're obviously utter shit at actual war.

[Iphie]

For the sake of argument: Who else?

I commend your strict demand for proof or evidence, but just for funsies... NATO countries are not exactly known to blow shit up in their territory to blame Russia. That's Russia's game. Who else even has access to these pipes? I think we can rule out terrorism from the Middle East, they don't have the capabilities nor the opportunity to pull something like this off.

I agree wholeheartedly, but that's what's puzzling to me: those with means have barely a motive, those with motive have no means. (russia has means but their motive would be flimsy, so they fall under the first category.)

I'm suspecting russia, but I can't be sure and say it was russia then how did they do it? I mean subs and surface vessels would have been noticed.

Edit: I don't even want to contemplate a hitherto unrevealed player in the mix. But the list of potential suspects is very small indeed.

One thing that could still be considered: russian resistance, they'd have the motivation to cut of putin, and relieve the West from his blackmail, but if they have the means they're more organized than suspected.

One more edit: while we know russia lies when its lips move, we should still approach this as if they tell the truth, as galling as it may be, because IF (big IF) they do speak the truth then we have other issues that need addressing.

[Corvus]

Putin is going to illegally annex the regions tomorrow.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63072113

[Skulltaker]

Putin is going to illegally annex the regions tomorrow.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63072113

Huh. Yeah, well, it's not like he can escalate it any further, can he?

...can he?

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Not how the US conducts business, usually.

Honestly, I was just throwing around ideas. I do think the risks of an action like this would far outweigh the benefits, and the US really doesn't have to do this, since Russia is fully capable of sabotaging itself to death.

[DarkAmbient]

What are the likely consequences of Russia's annexation? More sanctions? I feel they will get away with it, because no-one wants to call Putin's nuclear bluff.

[Lathspell]

What are the likely consequences of Russia's annexation? More sanctions? I feel they will get away with it, because no-one wants to call Putin's nuclear bluff.

Isn't the US sending another billion dollar shipment of weapons to Ukraine to answer those? More than doubling the amount of HIMARS (18 more) and other things too. Russia has been scared of the 16 they had already. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-St...ty-investment/

[Gorsameth]

For the sake of argument: Who else?

I commend your strict demand for proof or evidence, but just for funsies... NATO countries are not exactly known to blow shit up in their territory to blame Russia. That's Russia's game. Who else even has access to these pipes? I think we can rule out terrorism from the Middle East, they don't have the capabilities nor the opportunity to pull something like this off.

The problem is I don't see what Russia gets out of sabotaging their 1 carrot they have to dangle infront of Germany. Without a working pipeline there is a lot less pressure on Germany to buy Russian gas if the winter gets problematic. That's a bad thing for Russia.

[DarkAmbient]

Isn't the US sending another billion dollar shipment of weapons to Ukraine to answer those? More than doubling the amount of HIMARS (18 more) and other things too. Russia has been scared of the 16 they had already. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-St...ty-investment/

Yes, but Putin's aim here is to up the ante and force Ukraine and the West to deal with him on his terms. If any of those rockets end up in the annexed territories there is a chance Putin will demonstrate that he wasn't bluffing. I wonder what our strategy will be.

[Gorsameth]

Yes, but Putin's aim here is to up the ante and force Ukraine and the West to deal with him on his terms. If any of those rockets end up in the annexed territories there is a chance Putin will demonstrate that he wasn't bluffing. I wonder what our strategy will be.

Bluffing about what? You still operate on the belief that Russia would glass itself over Donbas?

[Lahis]

Yes, but Putin's aim here is to up the ante and force Ukraine and the West to deal with him on his terms. If any of those rockets end up in the annexed territories there is a chance Putin will demonstrate that he wasn't bluffing. I wonder what our strategy will be.

Almost want them to launch the nuke and be erased from the face of the Earth when west switches from "arm Ukraine" to "send men to completely and utterly annihilate Russia".

[Crispin]

What are the likely consequences of Russia's annexation? More sanctions? I feel they will get away with it, because no-one wants to call Putin's nuclear bluff.

The west is not going to succumb to nuclear blackmail. If it does now where will it end.

Also he's been issuing nuclear threats for years now, it's just another Tuesday really. In the end a nuclear strike would have far bigger consequences than Russia could handle.

China is not going to approve of Russia lopping nukes at a neigbour for obvious reasons.

So far we can be sure of one thing, if Russia say they didnt do it, they did it. If they say they'll do it, they wont.

[Corvus]

What are the likely consequences of Russia's annexation? More sanctions? I feel they will get away with it, because no-one wants to call Putin's nuclear bluff.

More sanctions, Ukraine keeps slaughtering untrained Russian troops and taking back their lands and no nukes are used because the US has made it very, very clear there will be truly massive consequences.

[DarkAmbient]

Bluffing about what? You still operate on the belief that Russia would glass itself over Donbas?

I don't believe I said anything to justify that inference. I'm simply wondering what the response to Putin will be once those territories are annexed, taking his apparent bluff into account.

[Gabriel]

https://www.is.fi/politiikka/art-2000009101747.html
Finland just can't stop fucking up this visa issue. We will still continue allowing access for "humanitarian reasons and for anyone visiting family".

Edit: and those owning property in Finland that needs immediate maintenance. -.-

[Iphie]

More sanctions, Ukraine keeps slaughtering untrained Russian troops and taking back their lands and no nukes are used because the US has made it very, very clear there will be truly massive consequences.

He is putting himself in a corner though, nuke get annihilated, don't nuke, fall out of a window.

In the end though the US has indeed made it very clear what the consequences are, and not even China will say the US is at fault in that situation. (I wouldn't even put it beyond Biden and Xi to have had some very secret conversations about this exact eventuality.)

[Santti]

https://www.is.fi/politiikka/art-2000009101747.html
Finland just can't stop fucking up this visa issue. We will still continue allowing access for "humanitarian reasons and for anyone visiting family".

Edit: and those owning property in Finland that needs immediate maintenance. -.-

It's shameful, but I'm not sure it even matters all that much, at this point. Russia seems determined to beating us to it, and forbidding it's own citizens from leaving the country. But we'll see.