Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Endus]

The second anyone not Russian touches Russian soil, you are literally turning this into The Great Patriotic War 2.0. We don't want that. I mean, not unless we actually intend to break Russia like Germany was broken. Completely devastate the entire nation and occupy them for oh, 50 years or so. Again, nobody on this planet actually wants to live in that shitty swamp. So, let's not do that.

If the alternative is repeated military actions like Crimea and now Ukraine, against border nations with Russia, attempting to annex or suborn them, maybe a long-term occupation of Russia by NATO nations is the healthier option. Of course we don't want to do that, but if the alternative is shit like the Russo-Ukrainian War, it's still the better option. A quick check shows that, since the collapse of the USSR and the Russian Federation emerging in '91, they've been engaged in conflict with their border states pretty close to without real pause that entire period. From the Georgian Civil War involvement and the South Ossetian War, right through to the Russo-Ukrainian War, which has been ongoing since 2014.

That kind of action can work. Look at modern Japan and Germany. And it didn't take 50 years to achieve results.

It isn't about such an occupation being all cuddly and pleasant and happy. It's that the alternatives, as demonstrated by better than 30 years of recent history, are worse.

[Slant]

For fuck's sake... I wish this kind of optimism died out already.

Not optimism, pragmatism. We cannot invade Russia. It would go against everything we're fighting for. Ukraine demonstrates that better than anything else. The whole point here is that attacking another nation's sovereignity is a no-go. If Ukraine wins everything back, what is your justification to invade Russia? Revenge? Sorry mate, Western civilisation has evolved beyond that, you need a better reason.

Also, let's assume we throw our ideals out the window and invade Russia. How much are you willing to pay for the occupation? Remember Afghanistan? Iraq? Occupation only works if you uttertly break a nation's neck. And even then it's not guaranteed you'll ever reach their psychopathic state of mind to affect a change.

Chances are, if you attempt something like that in Russia, you'll just solidify their collective paranoia, because hey... you've just proved them right.

So, spare me the whole tirade about "optimism". This has nothing to do with it. I'm just pointing out the glimmer of hope that you can get to make a pragmatic necessity a little more palateable.

- - - Updated - - -

If the alternative is repeated military actions like Crimea and now Ukraine, against border nations with Russia, attempting to annex or suborn them, maybe a long-term occupation of Russia by NATO nations is the healthier option. Of course we don't want to do that, but if the alternative is shit like the Russo-Ukrainian War, it's still the better option. A quick check shows that, since the collapse of the USSR and the Russian Federation emerging in '91, they've been engaged in conflict with their border states pretty close to without real pause that entire period. From the Georgian Civil War involvement and the South Ossetian War, right through to the Russo-Ukrainian War, which has been ongoing since 2014.

That kind of action can work. Look at modern Japan and Germany. And it didn't take 50 years to achieve results.

It isn't about such an occupation being all cuddly and pleasant and happy. It's that the alternatives, as demonstrated by better than 30 years of recent history, are worse.

Took four nations about 50 years of occupation, STRICT occupation where every legislation had to be approved, to fix Germany. And that was a nation that culturally aligned with the West and is probably a representation of best case lab conditions of national rehabilitation.

I'm not sure we can do that with Russia. The US tends to lose interest in things that last more than 1-2 years, a presidential cycle at the most.

The only option I see for something you propose is to invade Russia, break their will and then break the country up. And THEN occupy those states for 50 years and affect generational re-education like it was done in Germany (adult classes for topics like "democracy", "freedoms", "human rights" and stuff like that... maybe "slavic history, aka why being an asshole is overrated".

[Gabriel]

Not optimism, pragmatism. We cannot invade Russia. It would go against everything we're fighting for. Ukraine demonstrates that better than anything else. The whole point here is that attacking another nation's sovereignity is a no-go. If Ukraine wins everything back, what is your justification to invade Russia? Revenge? Sorry mate, Western civilisation has evolved beyond that, you need a better reason.

Also, let's assume we throw our ideals out the window and invade Russia. How much are you willing to pay for the occupation? Remember Afghanistan? Iraq? Occupation only works if you uttertly break a nation's neck. And even then it's not guaranteed you'll ever reach their psychopathic state of mind to affect a change.

Chances are, if you attempt something like that in Russia, you'll just solidify their collective paranoia, because hey... you've just proved them right.

So, spare me the whole tirade about "optimism". This has nothing to do with it. I'm just pointing out the glimmer of hope that you can get to make a pragmatic necessity a little more palateable.

I was referring to believing that russians would ever, under any circumstance, willingly admit to being wrong about something. It is not in their cultural DNA.

I don't want to invade russia. I want to break russia if it continues to attack its neighbors.

Took four nations about 50 years of occupation, STRICT occupation where every legislation had to be approved, to fix Germany. And that was a nation that culturally aligned with the West and is probably a representation of best case lab conditions of national rehabilitation.

I'm not sure we can do that with Russia. The US tends to lose interest in things that last more than 1-2 years, a presidential cycle at the most.

The only option I see for something you propose is to invade Russia, break their will and then break the country up. And THEN occupy those states for 50 years and affect generational re-education like it was done in Germany (adult classes for topics like "democracy", "freedoms", "human rights" and stuff like that... maybe "slavic history, aka why being an asshole is overrated".

The only way to deal with russia is to push them far enough into the corner that they start fighting amongst themselves. If they end up nuking each other, fine, I'll eat my iodine pills and avoid eating mushrooms and berries for a while.

Once the russian federation fragments into smaller countries, we can start mending the relations again.

[Endus]

Took four nations about 50 years of occupation, STRICT occupation where every legislation had to be approved, to fix Germany. And that was a nation that culturally aligned with the West and is probably a representation of best case lab conditions of national rehabilitation.

I'm not sure we can do that with Russia. The US tends to lose interest in things that last more than 1-2 years, a presidential cycle at the most.

The only option I see for something you propose is to invade Russia, break their will and then break the country up. And THEN occupy those states for 50 years and affect generational re-education like it was done in Germany (adult classes for topics like "democracy", "freedoms", "human rights" and stuff like that... maybe "slavic history, aka why being an asshole is overrated".

I'm definitely not saying it would be trivial or without conflict. I'm just saying that the alternative isn't "everyone gets along fine forever", the alternative is the 30 years of expansionist hostility and warfare that post-Soviet Russia has consistently expressed.

[Cthulhu 2020]

im not here to answer WHY putin might want to file paperwork before nuking. im telling you that is what it damn well looks like.

Why? Because when the Russian people ask "Why hasn't the US been nuked off the map yet" he can say "The paperwork hasn't/never went through". Putin's MO is to take unilateral action and do what he wants, but if something bad happens he blames everyone else but himself. But also, he's a lot of bark and zero bite. Ukraine invasion is a massive failure, and Putin is getting angry that he'll go down as one of the worst Russian leaders in history. He knows that if Russian launched nukes at the US, Russia would be glass in a matter of hours, so he won't nuke.

You love believing a fascist liar.

[Slant]

I'm definitely not saying it would be trivial or without conflict. I'm just saying that the alternative isn't "everyone gets along fine forever", the alternative is the 30 years of expansionist hostility and warfare that post-Soviet Russia has consistently expressed.

So, in all of this, we shouldn't forget that people like Navalny exist. Yes, the collapse of the Soviet Union was a big desaster. But we're partially to blame for that, because the West did jack shit to help them. We just watched in glee as the Cold War ended, the winner was the winner, the loser was the loser. And the loser succumbed to anarchy and crime lords rising in power, much like what happened in Iraq with the power vacuum after Hussein was (rightfully) hanged.

So, what I'm saying is... if we do our bit properly, next time might work out better. What doesn't work is force, because humanity has a tendency to resist force. You run into the danger of solidifying all the negative traits in them. Apply pressure on Russia, break them from the outside, starve them. When Russia collapses and Navalny and his likes come out, lend a hand. A firm hand, with conditions that are strictly enforced, but do not let them fall into anarchy again.

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I was referring to believing that russians would ever, under any circumstance, willingly admit to being wrong about something. It is not in their cultural DNA.

I don't want to invade russia. I want to break russia if it continues to attack its neighbors.

The only way to deal with russia is to push them far enough into the corner that they start fighting amongst themselves. If they end up nuking each other, fine, I'll eat my iodine pills and avoid eating mushrooms and berries for a while.

Once the russian federation fragments into smaller countries, we can start mending the relations again.

While I largely share your sentiment, I am also well aware that this is a pretty racist sentiment. I commend your honesty, but I urge you to consider what you're saying. While I personally have no pity for soldiers in Lyman being slaughtered, for example, I am well aware of the fact that at the end of this conflict, we need to be able to look Russia in the eyes and talk to them as human beings eventually.

Unless someone literally deletes them from this planet, that is. I'm fairly certain you wouldn't advocate that.

[Gabriel]

While I largely share your sentiment, I am also well aware that this is a pretty racist sentiment.

It is not racism. russia isn't a race, nor is it a monoculture. What the "russia" that I despise is, is the overarching cultural prison that was created to chain all the peoples that lived in the areas forced to join the USSR and then the russian federation. It is the central oppressor of all those different cultures. The culture of corruption, thieving and betraying anyone for personal gain.

But, at the same time it is the culture willingly supported by the citizens of the russian federation. Unless they start solving their own problems, I will not give a single solitary fuck about them. If they don't want to overthrow their own oppressors(Putin and Moscow), I will never shed a single tear for what happens to them.

And again, I'm not advocating attacking russia or invading them. All I'm saying is that we should board them up and let them stew until they collectively decide they'd rather behave like a civilized country/countries.

I commend your honesty, but I urge you to consider what you're saying. While I personally have no pity for soldiers in Lyman being slaughtered, for example, I am well aware of the fact that at the end of this conflict, we need to be able to look Russia in the eyes and talk to them as human beings eventually.

Unless someone literally deletes them from this planet, that is. I'm fairly certain you wouldn't advocate that.

That process starts with russia, not with us.

[Gorsameth]

I don't want to invade russia. I want to break russia if it continues to attack its neighbors.

That's exactly what the sanctions are doing. Once the hope was to bind Russia through economic prosperity in the same way that Europe successfully did.

Not going so well, so lets cripple them to the point where they don't have an economy capable of sustaining an army that has the power to invade its neighbours.

[Marcellus1986]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/stat...7RemRsuSOnKTJQ

Looks like the Ukrainians have pierced Russian lines in the Kherson area and the Russians are asking for urgent air support on social media.

[Belize]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/stat...7RemRsuSOnKTJQ

Looks like the Ukrainians have pierced Russian lines in the Kherson area and the Russians are asking for urgent air support on social media.

"Tweeting for air-support" is the hallmark of a well functioning military.

[Edge-]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/stat...7RemRsuSOnKTJQ

Looks like the Ukrainians have pierced Russian lines in the Kherson area and the Russians are asking for urgent air support on social media.

Let's not entirely discredit using social media as a communication tool during war, I forget exactly what fight it was (maybe Libya?) but folks on the ground were literally just tweeting coordinates for targets and it worked.

Though that presumes you have a capable recipient of those public communications who can actually launch strikes on those coordinates and I don't think Russia has that capability.

I guess it's not much worse than communicating over unsecured radios.

[Kaleredar]

Let's not entirely discredit using social media as a communication tool during war, I forget exactly what fight it was (maybe Libya?) but folks on the ground were literally just tweeting coordinates for targets and it worked.

Though that presumes you have a capable recipient of those public communications who can actually launch strikes on those coordinates and I don't think Russia has that capability.

I guess it's not much worse than communicating over unsecured radios.

I don't know how capable the Russian air force is able to muster actual air support. Weren't they using commercially available GPS units to navigate their aircraft?

[enigma77]

"Tweeting for air-support" is the hallmark of a well functioning military.

LMAO

/10lmaos

[Iphie]

I don't know how capable the Russian air force is able to muster actual air support. Weren't they using commercially available GPS units to navigate their aircraft?

Yep, made all the more funny by the fact that, theoretically, russia has its OWN GPS equivalent. Which is running at the bare minimum of satellites...out of which about half is failing...

[Marcellus1986]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...JCuN43k6ZUbB6w

More footage of unhappy conscripts.

[jonnysensible]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...JCuN43k6ZUbB6w

More footage of unhappy conscripts.

think thats from 2014?

Saw conscripts today moaning about having shit equipment tho. Boots moldy, guns falling apart : https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/01/russiandraft

[Corvus]

Russia is having trouble on all fronts and the tankies are really having trouble coping.

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2022/...tunning-defeat

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A former Russian general and now politician is saying 1.5 million sets of uniforms intended for the mobilised have disappeared.

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/st...Rmg_Sd-kM50j1Q

[Slant]

Russia is having trouble on all fronts and the tankies are really having trouble coping.

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2022/...tunning-defeat

- - - Updated - - -

A former Russian general and now politician is saying 1.5 million sets of uniforms intended for the mobilised have disappeared.

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/st...Rmg_Sd-kM50j1Q

Don't worry. They'll be found again. Against the right finder's fee or a premium on the black market.

[jonnysensible]

Don't worry. They'll be found again. Against the right finder's fee or a premium on the black market.

nah they sold them all, along with all their night vision and body armor to american airsoft players, im not even joking.

Corruption is absolutely smashing Russia. Fucking great, maybe don't let vlad and his pals steal all of the money to spend on villa's, super yachts and prostitutes.

[Corvus]

Russian milibloggers seem to be in a panic again, this time over Kherson. The Ukrainians seem to have punched 20km deep through Russian lines in a single day and are in the Russian backfield again.

Even better, it brings Russia's most important airfield in the region in to himars range. Seems a perfect target for that shotgun rocket.