Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gorsameth]

I don't believe I said anything to justify that inference. I'm simply wondering what the response to Putin will be once those territories are annexed, taking his apparent bluff into account.

Your talking about there being a chance Putin isn't buffing. The only thing he is bluffing about is Nukes.

[Veggie50]

Damage to the...hold on.



Even Russia says that's Ukrainian missiles and shells. You are mistaken.

Damage to the pipeline now confirmed to be sabotage.



Quite frankly, we're entering a position where Russia claiming it wasn't them should be taken as admission it was. Remember how they claimed this wasn't a war?

To be fair, it’s less a war and more a mass execution of Russians.

[Slant]

To be fair, it’s less a war and more a mass execution of Russians.

Too many Ukrainian casualties and dead civilians to call it that, unfortunately...

[Corvus]

Expect nukes by the weekend.

Unfortunatley, I'm only half-joking. I think that's part of his agenda and I have come to accept that he's actually, clinically insane.

If he was planning to use nukes he wouldn't have mobilised hundreds of thousands of civilians and immediately thrown them into battle as cannon fodder.

Plus the Russian system doesn't work by just him ordering a nuke launched - it needs agreement from others and then for everyone involved in the process to carry it out. Not all of them are going to be insane.

[Specialka]

Expect nukes by the weekend.

Unfortunatley, I'm only half-joking. I think that's part of his agenda and I have come to accept that he's actually, clinically insane.

No, he is not. He is very rational. We just do not get his logic. And are you talking about strategic or tactical nukes ? As they are far from being the same. Imo, the strategic are out of the picture for now, but the tactical could be use if Ukraine would be pushing too hard toward Crimea or Russia borders.

[Biglog]

It does seem like the possibility of Putin using a small tactical nuke isn't as unlikely as we'd hope. Many analysts are thinking Snake Island as a target. Lightly populated to maybe limit the Western repercussions, and from the Russian view is revenge for the Moskva sinking and embarrassing loss of the island. It's some scary and incredibly dangerous brinksmanship though that could escalate very quickly, and goes to show the desperate situation Putin is in.

I also don't think the mobilization will effect that decision either way, the conscripts are being selected largely out of malice it appears such as those at the border trying to leave, and ethnic minority groups getting selected at a high rate. And those picked are being poorly trained and equipped before being sent to the front. Russian TV analysts have been dismissive of them also talking about those being conscripted and sent as though they are disposable. It's definitely a different moral and cultural view on valuing life from the way we think about it in the West.

Zelensky is also holding an emergency Security Council meeting today on an unannounced topic. If Western intelligence has info that something like might be fairly imminent, they would have passed that along. So hopefully that is not the reason for this emergency meeting.

[Gabriel]

No, he is not. He is very rational. We just do not get his logic. And are you talking about strategic or tactical nukes ? As they are far from being the same. Imo, the strategic are out of the picture for now, but the tactical could be use if Ukraine would be pushing too hard toward Crimea or Russia borders.

It does seem like the possibility of Putin using a small tactical nuke isn't as unlikely as we'd hope. Many analysts are thinking Snake Island as a target. Lightly populated to maybe limit the Western repercussions, and from the Russian view is revenge for the Moskva sinking and embarrassing loss of the island. It's some scary and incredibly dangerous brinksmanship though that could escalate very quickly, and goes to show the desperate situation Putin is in.

I also don't think the mobilization will effect that decision either way, the conscripts are being selected largely out of malice it appears such as those at the border trying to leave, and ethnic minority groups getting selected at a high rate. And those picked are being poorly trained and equipped before being sent to the front. Russian TV analysts have been dismissive of them also talking about those being conscripted and sent as though they are disposable. It's definitely a different moral and cultural view on valuing life from the way we think about it in the West.

Zelensky is also holding an emergency Security Council meeting today on an unannounced topic. If Western intelligence has info that something like might be fairly imminent, they would have passed that along. So hopefully that is not the reason for this emergency meeting.

I dare Putin to try.

[Nymrohd]

What are the likely consequences of Russia's annexation? More sanctions? I feel they will get away with it, because no-one wants to call Putin's nuclear bluff.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...ums-in-ukraine

I don't think it is unlikely that we will eventually see a ban on medicinal exports if Russia keeps escalating.

[Slant]

If he was planning to use nukes he wouldn't have mobilised hundreds of thousands of civilians and immediately thrown them into battle as cannon fodder.

Plus the Russian system doesn't work by just him ordering a nuke launched - it needs agreement from others and then for everyone involved in the process to carry it out. Not all of them are going to be insane.

He's Russian. That is exactly what he would do. Those men don't mean anything to him.

- - - Updated - - -

No, he is not. He is very rational. We just do not get his logic. And are you talking about strategic or tactical nukes ? As they are far from being the same. Imo, the strategic are out of the picture for now, but the tactical could be use if Ukraine would be pushing too hard toward Crimea or Russia borders.

Rationality doesn't necessarily mean he's sane. Insane people can be rational. Look, I'm not interested in some bullshit semantic discussion because you happened to read something that sounded semi-smart on the internet and take it for face value. He's mad by pretty much every metric known to us. And he's going to pay for it.

As far as nukes, it doesn't really matter, does it. Tactical nukes cannot be tolerated/normalized just like strategic nukes. A simple "Oh, we'll slap on another round of sanctions" isn't going to cut it. If that shit becomes normalized, we'll have officially started the conga line to doomsday. And I'm very, very reluctant to come across as a doomsday-sayer, but there you have it. Zero tolerance. It cannot be any other way.

[Specialka]

He's Russian. That is exactly what he would do. Those men don't mean anything to him.

- - - Updated - - -



Rationality doesn't necessarily mean he's sane. Insane people can be rational. Look, I'm not interested in some bullshit semantic discussion because you happened to read something that sounded semi-smart on the internet and take it for face value. He's mad by pretty much every metric known to us. And he's going to pay for it.

As far as nukes, it doesn't really matter, does it. Tactical nukes cannot be tolerated/normalized just like strategic nukes. A simple "Oh, we'll slap on another round of sanctions" isn't going to cut it. If that shit becomes normalized, we'll have officially started the conga line to doomsday. And I'm very, very reluctant to come across as a doomsday-sayer, but there you have it. Zero tolerance. It cannot be any other way.

By "us", you mean the western world I guess. And yes, we think he is not sane because we forgot what a balance of power through military power was. But while the other countries like China, India, and so on let him down for now because they are not prepared to do so yet. But once they are ready, they will act like he did. Because we are not living in the same world.

[Breccia]

He's Russian. That is exactly what he would do. Those men don't mean anything to him.

Seconded. The Russian people know this, that's why they're evading the draft, that's why the penalty for evading the draft was increased.

Ethnic Minorities Hit Hardest By Russia’s Mobilization, Activists Say

That's the Moscow Times. It opens with an anecdotal story -- yes, I know, I know -- about a 47-year-old father being drafted. But then it goes on to detail how the poorer regions are being targeted first.

I found this passage especially telling:

And in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, the peninsula’s indigenous Crimean Tatars have apparently been hit particularly hard.

“Eighty percent of the draft papers for mobilization in Crimea were sent out to Crimean Tatars (Crimean Tatars make up less than 20% of the population of Crimea),” journalist and activist Osman Pashaev wrote in a post on Facebook last week.

I guess to put it another way: if Trump declared war on Mexico, and disproportionately drafted a bunch of Hispanics to fight in this war...would people be saying "well at least now we know he won't nuke Mexico"? Putin's neither stupid nor incompetent, but he's made it clear he has no value on human life except the results it brings him. He would 100% rain fire down on his own conscripts.

[Iphie]

He would 100% rain fire down on his own conscripts.

He might, but I wonder how happy the army would be with that, I mean even if it's "only" ethnic minorities I sincerely doubt the rest of the army is going to wait till they are the next target. They're Orcs, not Skaven.

[Breccia]

I wonder how happy the army would be with that.

I assume the few remaining survivors would be very unhappy. Everyone else? I mean, morale is already "Ctulhu's toilet" level. And I have zero to negative doubt Putin would claim American nuked his troops.

So I don't think their happiness is a factor. I mean, they're leaving tanks in farm fields and walking home already. I don't know how Putin could possibly make things go worse for his army's morale.

[NoiseTank13]

I assume the few remaining survivors would be very unhappy. Everyone else? I mean, morale is already "Ctulhu's toilet" level. And I have zero to negative doubt Putin would claim American nuked his troops.

I never took you for a sweet summer child.

[Breccia]

I never took you for a sweet summer child.

Um...okay? I really don't get what you're trying to say here.

So as Russia plans to annex occupied territory, it seems to me most countries agree a contract signed at gunpoint is largely unenforceable. I wonder what the next step is. Could the international community just refuse to recognize it?

Probably more importantly, how would Russia plan to retain this annexed area? They're struggling as it is. I imagine they might claim that Ukraine troops in their own country would be an act of war, yet another sham considering Putin started a war to get this land. But the Ukrainian forces seem to be doing a pretty good job of just outright dismantling Russian forces when given the chance. So unless Putin decides to keep feeding meat to the grinder just to replace the occupying troops as they're slaughtered en masse, I don't see how this fraud of a vote is going to stand up. I definitely don't see Zelensky as they type to say "Well we were fighting for our land and our people, but he had a piece of paper signed at gunpoint, I guess we should stop fighting now". In fact, I see him saying this to the Russian invaders:

If you want to live, run. If you want to live, surrender.

[Collegeguy]

He is putting himself in a corner though, nuke get annihilated, don't nuke, fall out of a window.

In the end though the US has indeed made it very clear what the consequences are, and not even China will say the US is at fault in that situation. (I wouldn't even put it beyond Biden and Xi to have had some very secret conversations about this exact eventuality.)

Worrisome part is that some believe this may be Putin's only way out. Russia is struggling and desperate. The mobilization may fail. Putin is stressing over this. If Russia is not in a position of strength, then Putin knows his life is in danger. Throwing a nuke may be his way out. If the US responds with surgical strikes afterwards, he can retreat and blame the US for bullying Russia into a corner. This would be acceptable for him. If the world backs down after a nuke, he can demand peace for territory.

Essentially, Putin can't afford to lose to Ukraine. It dissolves the entire Russia stronk psyche and brings doubt to his decisions. Putin may force the world to get directly involved, so that he retains some form of dignity to save his own skin. Zelensky believes that the nukes are not a bluff. The west also can't allow gaslighting and nuclear blackmail to dissuade defending allies. That would be a terrible precedence.

Once this is over, Russia is going to be even more corrupt, backwards, and skill delinquent then before. The most incompetent nation in the foreseeable future holding nukes.

[Fugus]

@Collegeguy

If Putin goes that route, the retaliation shouldn’t be just to oust Putin it should be to dissolve Russia entirely and I think the entire planet would ensure that happened and very well likely make sure it wouldn’t be allowed to self govern for at least a generation or two if they are smart as Russia has repeatedly proven that they are culturally incapable of doing it themselves even when given the opportunity.

[Gabriel]

I believe the current plan really is to push russia so far into the corner that someone from his inner circle caps Putler and the rest of the russian government can blame the whole disaster on him and just withdraw to russia proper.

[Breccia]

I believe the current plan really is to push russia so far into the corner that someone from his inner circle caps Putler and the rest of the russian government can blame the whole disaster on him and just withdraw to russia proper.

Putin has to know that he's not just losing, but increasingly to blame for it. Do you think he'll go paranoid and start executing effectively random people in his own inner circle? Or does he have a strong enough grip that they won't do that until angry soldiers and their families are rioting outside his window -- meaning he's dead already anyhow?

[Gabriel]

Putin has to know that he's not just losing, but increasingly to blame for it. Do you think he'll go paranoid and start executing effectively random people in his own inner circle? Or does he have a strong enough grip that they won't do that until angry soldiers and their families are rioting outside his window -- meaning he's dead already anyhow?

My guess is that it takes him really trying to launch some nukes, at which point someone that wants to stay alive more than him makes the right call.

Or he does get some nukes off the ground after which point russia stops existing as a country along with Moscow in about 45 minutes.