Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Kaleredar]

that wasnt what i said. but its hilarious that you cannot grasp the concept of a nation making a mistake in a war. are you seriously telling me that you think wars are fought with sound logic and perfect decision making? have you ever watched people try to make decisions????

im not here to answer WHY putin might want to file paperwork before nuking. im telling you that is what it damn well looks like.

to paraphrase Einstein: "Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe,"

but it is funny as HELL to watch you try to mock me based on an argument that humans always make logical choices. hahahaahahhaahahh

So let me guess, this is a plea from you for the US and the EU to back off, for Ukraine to surrender, and for Russia to get everything it wants, right?

[Corvus]

Putin doesn't have a little red button to press. He doesn't even have sole authority to use nukes. And even if a consensus is reached, it then has to go down the chain of command and would require everyone involved drinking the cool-aid.

This isn't anything new. Putin rattles the nuclear sabre every couple of months since forever. And ignore the propagandist - they know, despite trying to convince the gullible otherwise that NATO would respond if an attack was made on them.

[Dontrike]

im telling you that is what it damn well looks like.

You've been saying that for the last half decade, and literally every single one of your "this is what it looks like" has been 100% wrong. It's amazing you've ignored reality smacking every single conspiracy of yours down and you still believe yourself to be a prophet of some kind.

[Slant]

that wasnt what i said. but its hilarious that you cannot grasp the concept of a nation making a mistake in a war. are you seriously telling me that you think wars are fought with sound logic and perfect decision making? have you ever watched people try to make decisions????

im not here to answer WHY putin might want to file paperwork before nuking. im telling you that is what it damn well looks like.

to paraphrase Einstein: "Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe,"

but it is funny as HELL to watch you try to mock me based on an argument that humans always make logical choices. hahahaahahhaahahh

Yes, actually. You'd be surprised to learn that the higher you go, the better people seem to be at decision making. It's like the better they get at their jobs, the more experienced they get, the more trust they earned to make the right decisions. It's absolutely amazing to see military folks make decisions, by the way. See, that's one of the core parts of their training. Like, to nuke or not to nuke? That's a question they've been answering for the past 80 years in, oh it must be millions of wargames by now. It's not like there's a lot of choices to begin with. Once you come to terms with MAD, it's a really binary solution that can be reduced to this: "Do I want to die today or not?"

Everytime you answer that with "Not today." you don't launch nukes.

AMAZING. I know. This hyped up new technology called logic, god... it's stealth logic is what it is, I tell you. You don't see it, but it's there, and then it ambushes you when you least expect it.

[Forogil]

Putin doesn't have a little red button to press. He doesn't even have sole authority to use nukes.

True, but none in the troika of Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov inspire confidence.

And even if a consensus is reached, it then has to go down the chain of command and would require everyone involved drinking the cool-aid.

And information would also have to go up the chain of command, and any deployment of new weapons would likely be noticed before they happen.

So far Russia has had so long delays in those chains of commands (despite Putin allegedly bypassing them) that they are likely to target a place Ukraine have already left - for conventional weapons, and I don't see how tactical weapons would improve that from Russian perspective. In the unlikely event that they are used I would more fear a scorched earth strategy.

[Azadina]

that wasnt what i said. but its hilarious that you cannot grasp the concept of a nation making a mistake in a war. are you seriously telling me that you think wars are fought with sound logic and perfect decision making? have you ever watched people try to make decisions????

im not here to answer WHY putin might want to file paperwork before nuking. im telling you that is what it damn well looks like.

to paraphrase Einstein: "Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe,"

but it is funny as HELL to watch you try to mock me based on an argument that humans always make logical choices. hahahaahahhaahahh

Is that followed by the US civil war, in which Russia and China helps the Alpha Incel Trumpkins slaughter all libcucks and other untermenschen? That was one of your frequent fantasies also, correct?

[Iphie]

True, but none in the troika of Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov inspire confidence.

Gerasimov is, allegedly, more a loyalist to russia than putin, that's not to say he won't consent but his loyalty is apparently a bit different.

Also, after this Troika the rest of the army generals need to agree, then the order must be signed, delivered and executed, and all those parts can say: "no" (or so my understanding is of the russian process). It's not a quick process to initiate a first strike.

[Shadowferal]

As I understand it, the US has a process that is far quicker to launch nukes than Russia. And considering past near-launches, we were very glad that the Russian military insisted on such a procedure.

[Bakis]

AP News: 10 Torture sites in 1 town

At a mass grave site created by the Russians and discovered in the woods of Izium, at least 30 of the 447 bodies recently excavated bore visible marks of torture — bound hands, close gunshot wounds, knife wounds and broken limbs, according to the Kharkiv regional prosecutor’s office. Those injuries corresponded to the descriptions of the pain inflicted upon the survivors.

Men with links to Ukrainian forces were singled out repeatedly for torture, but any adult man risked getting caught up. Matilda Bogner, the head of the U.N. human rights mission in Ukraine, told the AP they had documented “widespread practices of torture or ill-treatment of civilian detainees” by Russian forces and affiliates. Torture of soldiers was also systemic, she said.

For the men, Room 6 was for electrocution. Room 9 was for waterboarding

Putler shows his love for his Russian brothers he liberate in Ukraine..

Russia is so thoroughly FUCKED for decades even after a (positive)regime shift.
What a shitass country Russia is, never learn from history of its treatment to both its own population as well as others.

[Jastall]

that wasnt what i said. but its hilarious that you cannot grasp the concept of a nation making a mistake in a war. are you seriously telling me that you think wars are fought with sound logic and perfect decision making? have you ever watched people try to make decisions????

im not here to answer WHY putin might want to file paperwork before nuking. im telling you that is what it damn well looks like.

to paraphrase Einstein: "Two things are infinite: The universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe,"

but it is funny as HELL to watch you try to mock me based on an argument that humans always make logical choices. hahahaahahhaahahh

Russia launching nukes would require a helluva lot of smart people to disregard not only logic but basic self-preservation entirely and accept that they, their families, and all their loved ones will likely die in nuclear fire over a glorified border dispute and grudge match. Even if they're the sort of sociopath who only cares about The Country in an abstract sense, everyone who has two braincells to rub together know that that the second said country launches a nuke, its time to exist can be counted in hours.

Much like your wet dream of an American civil war, it's not going to happen.

[Unholyground]

I just hope Ukraine takes a bunch of Russia's land as it seems only fair after this.

[Makabreska]

I just hope Ukraine takes a bunch of Russia's land as it seems only fair after this.

Nah, not gonna happen. They would loose support from the West and 180° Russian morale. Not even telling if they can do it, given they want to retake their territories first.

[D Luniz]

I just hope Ukraine takes a bunch of Russia's land as it seems only fair after this.

the closest (and it would be a LONG SHOT) would be a demilitarized zone carved out of the Russian land on their western border, and that would only happen if Putin and a lot of over hardliners committed suicide but failing off a balcony after putting two poisoned bullets in their back as tends to oddly happen.

[Slant]

I just hope Ukraine takes a bunch of Russia's land as it seems only fair after this.

The whole premise of Western approach is that Russia is doing all of this unprovoked. If that is the truth and nobody attacks Russian soil, there is a small chance that Russian population can see their folly and realise that nobody on this planet has an interest in their shitty swamp. I say small, because I don't think that nation is the smartest cookie in the jar to begin with.

The second anyone not Russian touches Russian soil, you are literally turning this into The Great Patriotic War 2.0. We don't want that. I mean, not unless we actually intend to break Russia like Germany was broken. Completely devastate the entire nation and occupy them for oh, 50 years or so. Again, nobody on this planet actually wants to live in that shitty swamp. So, let's not do that.

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the closest (and it would be a LONG SHOT) would be a demilitarized zone carved out of the Russian land on their western border, and that would only happen if Putin and a lot of over hardliners committed suicide but failing off a balcony after putting two poisoned bullets in their back as tends to oddly happen.

Actually, considering how Ukraine fights this war, a demilitarized zone of 10-20 KM seems fairly simple to enforce.

[Gabriel]

The whole premise of Western approach is that Russia is doing all of this unprovoked. If that is the truth and nobody attacks Russian soil, there is a small chance that Russian population can see their folly and realise that nobody on this planet has an interest in their shitty swamp. I say small, because I don't think that nation is the smartest cookie in the jar to begin with.

The second anyone not Russian touches Russian soil, you are literally turning this into The Great Patriotic War 2.0. We don't want that. I mean, not unless we actually intend to break Russia like Germany was broken. Completely devastate the entire nation and occupy them for oh, 50 years or so. Again, nobody on this planet actually wants to live in that shitty swamp. So, let's not do that.

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Actually, considering how Ukraine fights this war, a demilitarized zone of 10-20 KM seems fairly simple to enforce.

For fuck's sake... I wish this kind of optimism died out already.

[Endus]

The second anyone not Russian touches Russian soil, you are literally turning this into The Great Patriotic War 2.0. We don't want that. I mean, not unless we actually intend to break Russia like Germany was broken. Completely devastate the entire nation and occupy them for oh, 50 years or so. Again, nobody on this planet actually wants to live in that shitty swamp. So, let's not do that.

If the alternative is repeated military actions like Crimea and now Ukraine, against border nations with Russia, attempting to annex or suborn them, maybe a long-term occupation of Russia by NATO nations is the healthier option. Of course we don't want to do that, but if the alternative is shit like the Russo-Ukrainian War, it's still the better option. A quick check shows that, since the collapse of the USSR and the Russian Federation emerging in '91, they've been engaged in conflict with their border states pretty close to without real pause that entire period. From the Georgian Civil War involvement and the South Ossetian War, right through to the Russo-Ukrainian War, which has been ongoing since 2014.

That kind of action can work. Look at modern Japan and Germany. And it didn't take 50 years to achieve results.

It isn't about such an occupation being all cuddly and pleasant and happy. It's that the alternatives, as demonstrated by better than 30 years of recent history, are worse.

[Slant]

For fuck's sake... I wish this kind of optimism died out already.

Not optimism, pragmatism. We cannot invade Russia. It would go against everything we're fighting for. Ukraine demonstrates that better than anything else. The whole point here is that attacking another nation's sovereignity is a no-go. If Ukraine wins everything back, what is your justification to invade Russia? Revenge? Sorry mate, Western civilisation has evolved beyond that, you need a better reason.

Also, let's assume we throw our ideals out the window and invade Russia. How much are you willing to pay for the occupation? Remember Afghanistan? Iraq? Occupation only works if you uttertly break a nation's neck. And even then it's not guaranteed you'll ever reach their psychopathic state of mind to affect a change.

Chances are, if you attempt something like that in Russia, you'll just solidify their collective paranoia, because hey... you've just proved them right.

So, spare me the whole tirade about "optimism". This has nothing to do with it. I'm just pointing out the glimmer of hope that you can get to make a pragmatic necessity a little more palateable.

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If the alternative is repeated military actions like Crimea and now Ukraine, against border nations with Russia, attempting to annex or suborn them, maybe a long-term occupation of Russia by NATO nations is the healthier option. Of course we don't want to do that, but if the alternative is shit like the Russo-Ukrainian War, it's still the better option. A quick check shows that, since the collapse of the USSR and the Russian Federation emerging in '91, they've been engaged in conflict with their border states pretty close to without real pause that entire period. From the Georgian Civil War involvement and the South Ossetian War, right through to the Russo-Ukrainian War, which has been ongoing since 2014.

That kind of action can work. Look at modern Japan and Germany. And it didn't take 50 years to achieve results.

It isn't about such an occupation being all cuddly and pleasant and happy. It's that the alternatives, as demonstrated by better than 30 years of recent history, are worse.

Took four nations about 50 years of occupation, STRICT occupation where every legislation had to be approved, to fix Germany. And that was a nation that culturally aligned with the West and is probably a representation of best case lab conditions of national rehabilitation.

I'm not sure we can do that with Russia. The US tends to lose interest in things that last more than 1-2 years, a presidential cycle at the most.

The only option I see for something you propose is to invade Russia, break their will and then break the country up. And THEN occupy those states for 50 years and affect generational re-education like it was done in Germany (adult classes for topics like "democracy", "freedoms", "human rights" and stuff like that... maybe "slavic history, aka why being an asshole is overrated".

[Gabriel]

Not optimism, pragmatism. We cannot invade Russia. It would go against everything we're fighting for. Ukraine demonstrates that better than anything else. The whole point here is that attacking another nation's sovereignity is a no-go. If Ukraine wins everything back, what is your justification to invade Russia? Revenge? Sorry mate, Western civilisation has evolved beyond that, you need a better reason.

Also, let's assume we throw our ideals out the window and invade Russia. How much are you willing to pay for the occupation? Remember Afghanistan? Iraq? Occupation only works if you uttertly break a nation's neck. And even then it's not guaranteed you'll ever reach their psychopathic state of mind to affect a change.

Chances are, if you attempt something like that in Russia, you'll just solidify their collective paranoia, because hey... you've just proved them right.

So, spare me the whole tirade about "optimism". This has nothing to do with it. I'm just pointing out the glimmer of hope that you can get to make a pragmatic necessity a little more palateable.

I was referring to believing that russians would ever, under any circumstance, willingly admit to being wrong about something. It is not in their cultural DNA.

I don't want to invade russia. I want to break russia if it continues to attack its neighbors.

Took four nations about 50 years of occupation, STRICT occupation where every legislation had to be approved, to fix Germany. And that was a nation that culturally aligned with the West and is probably a representation of best case lab conditions of national rehabilitation.

I'm not sure we can do that with Russia. The US tends to lose interest in things that last more than 1-2 years, a presidential cycle at the most.

The only option I see for something you propose is to invade Russia, break their will and then break the country up. And THEN occupy those states for 50 years and affect generational re-education like it was done in Germany (adult classes for topics like "democracy", "freedoms", "human rights" and stuff like that... maybe "slavic history, aka why being an asshole is overrated".

The only way to deal with russia is to push them far enough into the corner that they start fighting amongst themselves. If they end up nuking each other, fine, I'll eat my iodine pills and avoid eating mushrooms and berries for a while.

Once the russian federation fragments into smaller countries, we can start mending the relations again.

[Endus]

Took four nations about 50 years of occupation, STRICT occupation where every legislation had to be approved, to fix Germany. And that was a nation that culturally aligned with the West and is probably a representation of best case lab conditions of national rehabilitation.

I'm not sure we can do that with Russia. The US tends to lose interest in things that last more than 1-2 years, a presidential cycle at the most.

The only option I see for something you propose is to invade Russia, break their will and then break the country up. And THEN occupy those states for 50 years and affect generational re-education like it was done in Germany (adult classes for topics like "democracy", "freedoms", "human rights" and stuff like that... maybe "slavic history, aka why being an asshole is overrated".

I'm definitely not saying it would be trivial or without conflict. I'm just saying that the alternative isn't "everyone gets along fine forever", the alternative is the 30 years of expansionist hostility and warfare that post-Soviet Russia has consistently expressed.

[Cthulhu 2020]

im not here to answer WHY putin might want to file paperwork before nuking. im telling you that is what it damn well looks like.

Why? Because when the Russian people ask "Why hasn't the US been nuked off the map yet" he can say "The paperwork hasn't/never went through". Putin's MO is to take unilateral action and do what he wants, but if something bad happens he blames everyone else but himself. But also, he's a lot of bark and zero bite. Ukraine invasion is a massive failure, and Putin is getting angry that he'll go down as one of the worst Russian leaders in history. He knows that if Russian launched nukes at the US, Russia would be glass in a matter of hours, so he won't nuke.

You love believing a fascist liar.