Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

yeah, it's gaslighting of course, but more importantly, it's Putin's (evil) tactic. He's killing kids and such like that to inspire terror and break the will of the Ukrainians with each bombing. Also, to scare the West of course in the sense of "I can do this shit, what are you going to do about it"

Terror tactics like you see with Tarkin in Star Wars

Remind me again what happened to Grand Moff Tarkin?

[Ripster42]

As a reminder, the US has been readying ukraine's air defense systems for months. First delivery is scheduled by november. There are some varying reports that they've already been delivered.

[YUPPIE]

I just want to illustrate that comparison is by no means random. The fact Putin namedropped Harry Potter indirectly when comparing himself to Rowling earlier this year makes me legitimately believe he's not just a fictional enthusiast, but given his mindset, definitely looks up to figures like Voldemort.

[Ripster42]

yeah, it's gaslighting of course

They're not the only ones who are gaslighting. Just look at your posting here.

[Corvus]

Terror bombing as a tactic has never worked. It won't work here. It is simply hardening the resolve of not just Ukraine but the west.

Frankly, it is a PR disaster for the Russians.

[YUPPIE]

Terror bombing as a tactic has never worked. It won't work here. It is simply hardening the resolve of not just Ukraine but the west.

Frankly, it is a PR disaster for the Russians.

I mean, he's definitely frightened people though. The goal is to explicitly spread terror and misery, and from what I saw this morning, people were absolutely afraid and left shocked.

[Corvus]

I mean, he's definitely frightened people though. The goal is to explicitly spread terror and misery, and from what I saw this morning, people were absolutely afraid and left shocked.

And it produced nothing of value. 100+ million dollars of missiles struck zero targets of military value. Strikes against civilian targets are a daily occurrence. This was just in a different spot. The civilians aren't going to break over this.

[Santti]

And it produced nothing of value. 100+ million dollars of missiles struck zero targets of military value. Strikes against civilian targets are a daily occurrence. This was just in a different spot. The civilians aren't going to break over this.

Indeed. WW2 taught that lesson well enough. It was believed, that breaking the spirit of the populace is an effective tactic in war, who then, in their discomfort, would revolt and possibly end the war that way. I think it was some git from Spain who came up with that idea, but both sides of the war bought into this philosophy. In practice, all it truly accomplished, was to unify the populace against the attacker. Big shocker there.

[YUPPIE]

Indeed. WW2 taught that lesson well enough. It was believed, that breaking the spirit of the populace is an effective tactic in war, who then, in their discomfort, would revolt and possibly end the war that way. I think it was some git from Spain who came up with that idea, but both sides of the war bought into this philosophy. In practice, all it truly accomplished, was unify the populace against the attacker. Big shocker there.

So what does that say of Putin's mindset, then? He said today he's going to escalate civilian attacks as a "penalty" to any significant Ukrainian advances going forward. That's honestly terrifying.

[zealo]

Indeed. WW2 taught that lesson well enough. It was believed, that breaking the spirit of the populace is an effective tactic in war, who then, in their discomfort, would revolt and possibly end the war that way. I think it was some git from Spain who came up with that idea, but both sides of the war bought into this philosophy. In practice, all it truly accomplished, was to unify the populace against the attacker. Big shocker there.

Italian, a guy by the name of Giulio Douhet for anyone's whose curious.

But yeah, the idea that you can break morale of a civilian populace with terror bombing isn't some new idea, but one that has been thoroughly debunked.

[Corvus]

So what does that say of Putin's mindset, then? He said today he's going to escalate civilian attacks as a "penalty" to any significant Ukrainian advances going forward. That's honestly terrifying.

It says he is stuck in a 20th century style of thinking and of fighting war while most others have moved on to the 21st century. When a 20th century army goes up against the 21st century it suffers horrendous losses. Which is why Russia is down 60k+ dead, almost 7000 vehicles in total, including 1300+ tanks, 600+ AFVs, 1400+ IFVs, 200+ APCs, 1800 transport vehicles, 60+ jets, 50+ helicopters etc and so on.

- - - Updated - - -

Close up video of the state of the tracks on the Kerch bridge. Ain't nothing running on them until they are replaced at the least.

[YUPPIE]

So basically: If Russia admits defeat, goes back into its hole (for a time), and kills off Putin, is all just forgiven?

I read that geopolitically Russia is apparently too important to just leave rotting like North Korea, and should it just own up to the aforementioned, people will go back to business as usual.

[Corvus]

Seems I way lowballed the estimated cost of Putin's hissy fit. The estimate of the cost of the missiles used is in the range of $400-700 million USD. The KH-101s cost $13 million USD each.

You've got russian 'precision' then you've got HIMARs precision. Entire column of russian vehicles wrecked by precise strikes. Massive difference. Some of those look like the tungsten shotgun rocket, perfect for soft skin targets like this.

[Azadina]

You've got russian 'precision' then you've got HIMARs precision. Entire column of russian vehicles wrecked by precise strikes.

That's some crazy accuracy right there. Dead on the money on just about all those vehicles. Especially love it how after some of the column is already smoking, they decide to go stack trucks offroad; only to get blown up right as they stack them up. Glad the RuZZkies are making it more cost efficient to destroy as many targets as possible, with fewest amount of ordinance.

[Saradain]

Hehe, russian supporters getting tear-eyed now.

Think really carefully, russkies and cohorts, while you waste your expensive shit-accuracy rockets on purely civilian targets (because they don't move and don't generally try to hide as they live their lives), while seeing the HIMARS o'clock precision wiping out your orcish hordes.

Think carefully if Russia is actually "winning".

[Ettan]

So basically: If Russia admits defeat, goes back into its hole (for a time), and kills off Putin, is all just forgiven?

I read that geopolitically Russia is apparently too important to just leave rotting like North Korea, and should it just own up to the aforementioned, people will go back to business as usual.

The issue with simply killing putin is that he will just be replaced by another autocrat. So you get a putin 2.0. or 3.0 or 4.0 etc.
As for blame, this is not only levied at Putin, the russian leadership, command or the soldiers involved.
The blame is placed on the russian people as a whole.
If their against/ for/ or have no opinion on the conflict, it doesn't matter, ultimately the russian people allowed it to happen.

No matter who "wins" or if this conflict ends tomorrow; I do not see sanctions going away for a generation, 20-30 years.
But yes, on a longer timeframe, gradually relations will normalize.

Still I doubt things will return entirely to normal, I do not think the eu will ever make itself reliant on russian gass again.
And russias role/influence in the region as the regional main industrial/production power or hub:
That will be greatly diminished.

Regional power will shift to the west, probably to poland/hungary.
Foreign workers travelling to work at russian factories will be a thing of the past.

That will have a very negative effect for development in russia, It would in effect lock the country deeper in as a raw materiel supplier.
Without the means to refine/ produce end goods.
On the flipside it will be very positive for development/ prosperity of the eastern block countries, in many ways the regional dominance of russia has been keeping them down.

[Gabriel]

So basically: If Russia admits defeat, goes back into its hole (for a time), and kills off Putin, is all just forgiven?

I read that geopolitically Russia is apparently too important to just leave rotting like North Korea, and should it just own up to the aforementioned, people will go back to business as usual.

Essentially, but that would require russians to be able to admit to a defeat, so it is not going to happen.

[Veggie50]

So what does that say of Putin's mindset, then? He said today he's going to escalate civilian attacks as a "penalty" to any significant Ukrainian advances going forward. That's honestly terrifying.

You’re easily terrified.

[enigma77]

I mean, he's definitely frightened people though. The goal is to explicitly spread terror and misery, and from what I saw this morning, people were absolutely afraid and left shocked.

14 civilians have died. 14.

Terrible crime, yeah. But irrelevant, as far as the war goes.

This criminal act of desperation only hastens Russia's humiliating defeat.

[Kaleredar]

The issue with simply killing putin is that he will just be replaced by another autocrat. So you get a putin 2.0. or 3.0 or 4.0 etc.
As for blame, this is not only levied at Putin, the russian leadership, command or the soldiers involved.
The blame is placed on the russian people as a whole.
If their against/ for/ or have no opinion on the conflict, it doesn't matter, ultimately the russian people allowed it to happen.

You could say that was going to happen after every despotic episode of failure in the Soviet Union, though. But with each regime change they became slightly less horrible and megalomaniacal, with each new leader basically just blaming all of the current failures on the previous leader while advocating some minor change. And often times the people that became the new leaders were parts of the old leadership.

And the Russian people strike me as largely simply... apathetic. What's it to them if Russia kills some Ukrainians? Even if they have a problem with it, speaking out against it wont 1) change what Russia is doing and 2) will likely just result in them being punished. Towing the line costs them nothing... except the gradual backslide of their country into one of political and economic strife, but that's for future them to worry about. Current them is more worried about bringing home the turnips and not being black bagged.

But if the war were to end... what would they care? Especially if they could all essentially point to Putin as being "the wrongdoer" in an attempt to wash their hands of the situation. They draw no benefit from its continuation either.


Now, whether someone has support or apathy for a war of brutality aren't meaningfully different while the war is being conducted, as they both work to ensure the brutality continues. But if the war were to end, they aren't going to push to continue it. They're just going to keep on trying to bring home those turnips and not get black bagged by whatever the new status quo is.

Fighting a war takes conviction, a conviction that is entirely pinned upon Putin right now and one that doesn't seem to be universal even within the Russian government. Without that conviction, Russia's government strikes me as one with absolutely no spine, and if they have what is an effective easy out and easy scapegoat for this war were Putin removed from leadership, they'd likely take it.