Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

russia is going to run out of ammo and vehicles long before the west. They are taking unsustainable losses in planes, helicopters, tanks, missiles. There is a reason they went cap in hand to north Korea, Iran and Belarus begging for ammo and equipment.

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The Kremlin and its state propagandists have spent the entire war calling Zelensky a clown and a junkie. The head of the Wagner SS has broken ranks, publically praising him. This just days after reportedly scolding Putin in private over the war.

If anyone knows where all of Putin's bodies are buried, he would so I guess he feels safe. And with the russian milibloggers often touting Wagner as the only effective branch of the russian military, it might be hard to move against him.

Sounds like there is some serious political manoeuvring going on behind the scenes and this looks to be part of it, as part of the wagner-kadyrov faction.

I'm not sure how effective Kadyrov will be though, I don't think the Muscovite elite will accept him as an equal and his brand of strongman is not likely to work there.

[Corvus]

Kadyrov seems to want to take Shoigu's place. Given Shoigu is not one of the Moscow elite and is from one of the minorities, it might be acceptable. At least inside russia.

[jonnysensible]

Kadyrov seems to want to take Shoigu's place. Given Shoigu is not one of the Moscow elite and is from one of the minorities, it might be acceptable. At least inside russia.

its putins choice and like most dictators loyalty is worth more than competence. (which is why they often find themselves in the hole)

Shoigu will never bite the hand that feeds.

[Iphie]

Kadyrov seems to want to take Shoigu's place. Given Shoigu is not one of the Moscow elite and is from one of the minorities, it might be acceptable. At least inside russia.

putin has recently thrown his support to Shoigu by appearing in public with him, for now that seems to be the situation, putin wants him where he is.

[Corvus]

I was thinking more post Putin, which seems to be what all the factional jockeying is about. Shoigu won't last when Putin is gone.

[Elenos]

Stop getting your skew from wherever you're getting your skew from. It's leading to bizarre posts detached from reality.

You mean France24 is an unreliable source....yeah. Right.

russia is going to run out of ammo and vehicles long before the west. They are taking unsustainable losses in planes, helicopters, tanks, missiles. There is a reason they went cap in hand to north Korea, Iran and Belarus begging for ammo and equipment..

While Russia undeniably has severe issues of it's own, just keep in mind what comparison you're making here. The entire western world from essentially all of Europe, minus Hungary and a few others, and the United States and yet we are running out of what we can send unless we start dipping into critical levels, the ones needed for training.

Just keep in mind that Russia is still maintaining vast amounts of artillery fire despite everything, and they are basically being helped by Iran, North Korea and a few others?

From the France 24 article I linked earlier in this thread, which of course is dismissed by people because who gives a damn for facts.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...ins-stockpiles

The United States will soon be unable to provide Ukraine with certain types of ammunition that are essential to Kyiv's battle against Russia's invasion, as supplies are being used up faster than they can be replaced.

.............

US stockpiles of some equipment are "reaching the minimum levels needed for war plans and training," and restocking to pre-invasion levels could take years, Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote in a recent analysis.

Also there's this regarding HIMARS, the silver bullet that Ukraine has benefited from so much.

But US stocks of ammunition for Himars -- which fires GPS-guided rockets known as GMLRS, with a range of more than 80 kilometers (50 miles) -- are dwindling.

"If the United States sent one-third of that inventory to Ukraine (as has been the case with Javelin and Stinger), Ukraine would receive 8,000 to 10,000 rockets. That inventory would likely last several months, but, when the inventory is exhausted, there are no alternatives," said Cancian, who previously worked on weapons procurement for the US government.

Also just plain old artillery shells are running out.

The United States has also supplied more than 800,000 NATO standard 155 mm artillery shells to Kyiv -- three-quarters of the total amount delivered by all Western countries, according to official Pentagon statistics.

The amount of shells Washington has provided "is probably close to the limit that the United States is willing to give without risk to its own warfighting capabilities," Cancian said.

US production of these shells currently stands at 14,000 per month, but the Pentagon has announced that it aims to increase that figure to 36,000 within three years. That would still only bring annual production to 432,000 -- less than half of what has been provided to Ukraine in seven months.

[Saradain]

Also there's this regarding HIMARS, the silver bullet that Ukraine has benefited from so much.

Although your link implies the HIMARS ammo is running out...US somehow still managed to greenlight the deal to sell the said ammo for Finland as of today - a deal worth 535 million US dollars.

Reuters paywall-less source

I would imagine they indeed can ramp up production, or even in worst case, Finland can "lend" some...

Russia isn't gonna win this war.

[Iphie]

Although your link implies the HIMARS ammo is running out...US somehow still managed to greenlight the deal to sell the said ammo for Finland as of today - a deal worth 535 million US dollars.

Reuters paywall-less source

I would imagine they indeed can ramp up production, or even in worst case, Finland can "lend" some...

Russia isn't gonna win this war.

I do find it amusing that Finland bought both her Leopards and M270's from the Netherlands. I do love it when both my countries work together.

[Elenos]

Although your link implies the HIMARS ammo is running out...US somehow still managed to greenlight the deal to sell the said ammo for Finland as of today - a deal worth 535 million US dollars.

Reuters paywall-less source

I would imagine they indeed can ramp up production, or even in worst case, Finland can "lend" some...

Russia isn't gonna win this war.

These kind of deals takes years to actually deliver. For instance Romania had it's own HIMARS greenlight years ago yet we only received them last year.

[Saradain]

These kind of deals takes years to actually deliver. For instance Romania had it's own HIMARS greenlight years ago yet we only received them last year.

One would imagine they have the plans how to produce enough stuff for the contracts, including Ukraine. The West certainly does not simply crumble when there's lack of something, same cannot be said about Russia and their dictatorship friends though...

As legit as France24 is for news, I'm still gonna be confident that western aid won't become lackluster. After all, it's no good for Nazi Russia if they have plenty artillery ammo when they only spend it on civilians, and men are in a meat grinder with no hope. You don't win a war with artillery only.

...And the obvious - the more war crimes and genocide Russia performs, the bigger western help becomes, up to a point where we may have a slight chance of international community requesting a joint operation against Russia and/or their friends. Doesn't need to involve glassing Moscow or invading Russia proper (which is VERY unlikely to a point of just simply never happening), but if Russia gets desperate enough for tactical nukes...It's the end for their warmongering soon after that.

[Corvus]

Reports coming out of Kherson that the russians have abandoned numerous checkpoints and their flag no longer flies over the main administrative building. What it means yet no one knows as its just more mixed measures coming from Kherson.

[Breccia]

the more war crimes and genocide Russia performs, the bigger western help becomes, up to a point where we may have a slight chance of international community requesting a joint operation against Russia and/or their friends.

Surely Russia knows this. Considering the humiliating defeats they've suffered so far at the hands of Ukraine, it should be clear to the Russian higher-ups that they would not survive fighting Ukraine and literally any other additional help. Four months ago, I could have said "Finland could beat Russia" without hyperbole. Now I can say it without joking. A year ago, Russia was a third-world country wearing their grandfather's hand-me-down first-world suit. Now, the suit is ripped at the seams and the tie's gone missing, and while they always had trouble acting like a Wall Street banker, now they look like a Charlie Chaplin hobo.

And they're out of clean clothes to change into.

If an official NATO or EU/US task force gets boots on the ground, Russia's finished. Already desperately asking children and grandfathers to enlist and sending tanks into battle armed with eight-track players and expired Twinkies, they would have three choices:
1) losing.
2) surrendering.
3) mutually assured nuclear destruction. If their nukes even still work. After this war, I have my doubts.

Putin might want to steer directly into the iceberg, and he may be a dictator, but at some point, a KGB officer or general he hasn't murdered yet will ask "Is it worth destroying my country for someone dying of Parkinsons and cancer", load two rounds into their sidearm, and make the world a better place. Hell, they may not need the second round.

But I remain unconvinced Putin is actually suicidal. Arrogant, yes. Sociopath, yes. Sick and dying and wanting to see one last glimpse of the Glorious Mother Russia whose love he craved since birth, quite possibly. Actually seeking his only country's extermination, no.

If it gets bad to the point of other countries looking for legitimate ways to enter the fray, Russia will fake a sprained ankle and pull out of the game.

[Iphie]

Oof, pancreatic cancer is really nasty and has a very low survival rate, even after 1 year it's already 25% or so.

[The Stormbringer]

Oof, pancreatic cancer is really nasty and has a very low survival rate, even after 1 year it's already 25% or so.

Assuming it's true, it couldn't happen to a more deserving person. Normally I would say, "I don't wish cancer on anyone." but really, some people in this world are so evil that it's really hard to stick to that 100%.

[Ripster42]

You mean France24 is an unreliable source....yeah. Right.

I said your skew. "The west" does not have a "severe ammo problem", and hasn't had one "for years". We're literally offloading ammo we had surplus to our requirements. France24 does not say the west has a severe ammo problem, let alone that it has had one for years. Your rhetoric doesn't match reality.

[Belize]

These kind of deals takes years to actually deliver. For instance Romania had it's own HIMARS greenlight years ago yet we only received them last year.

I can assure you these things can be expedited

[Iphie]

Assuming it's true, it couldn't happen to a more deserving person. Normally I would say, "I don't wish cancer on anyone." but really, some people in this world are so evil that it's really hard to stick to that 100%.

It would certainly fit with the rumours, but unless and until he keels over I'm keeping some healthy skepticism of course.

[zealo]

I can assure you these things can be expedited

Yep. Western ammunition production is largely one on a peacetime footing with little general mobilisation of the economy as of now, despite some efforts to scale production numbers up a bit.

[Zaydin]

Oof, pancreatic cancer is really nasty and has a very low survival rate, even after 1 year it's already 25% or so.

You know, normally I don't find myself rooting for cancer but if the stories are true this is the rare occasion I find myself cheering for Team Cancer.

[Rasulis]

These kind of deals takes years to actually deliver. For instance Romania had it's own HIMARS greenlight years ago yet we only received them last year.

Stinger missiles will be in short supply. That’s a given. The US was in the process of transitioning away from Stingers when the war broke out. If it wasn’t for the war, Stinger missiles would have quietly gone obsolete without ever fulfilling it’s primary design purpose of stopping a Soviet tank invasion.

There should be plenty of HIMARS missiles. The US only provided Ukraine with 16 launchers. The ammunition burn rate is nowhere near high enough to cause a shortage. If the US had given Ukraine 100 launchers like they had asked, that would have been a different story. Also, the US is still actively manufacturing HIMARS guided missiles and is in the process of increasing production.

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I can assure you these things can be expedited

It is a bit morbid. The war is great advertisement for the US arms industry. The US arms industry is currently seeing a resurgence of research and manufacturing.