Except it was Georgia who attacked. There was no "false flag" - Saakashvili simply thought he could get away with it with Western backing.
The Guardian from 2008: Analysis: Georgia's decision to shell Tskhinvali could prove 'reckless
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President timed action to coincide with Olympics, says academic
David Hearst and James Orr
Fri 8 Aug 2008 17.05 BST
It has always been hard to work out who fired the first shot in any of the many conflicts that had broken out in the Caucasus.
Ever since June 1992, when the tiny mountain enclave of South Ossetia won the first round of its bid to detach itself from Georgia, the two sides have been intermittently at war.
But the flare-ups in the last decade have been skirmishes, and for a while it looked as though peace had broken out.
The weapons used today — tanks, multiple rocket launchers and fighter aircraft — made the fighting qualitatively different.
Observers had little doubt that the operation to take South Ossetia back under Georgian control bore the hallmarks of a planned military offensive.
It was not the result of a ceasefire that had broken down the night before - it was more a fulfilment of the promise the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, had made to recapture lost national territory, and with it a measure of nationalist pride.
The assault appears to be have carefully timed to coincide with the opening of the Olympics when the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, was in Beijing.
Tom de Waal, of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting and an expert on the region, said: "Clearly there have been incidents on both sides, but this is obviously a planned Georgian operation, a contingency plan they have had for some time, to retake [the South Ossetian capital] Tskhinvali.
"Possibly the Georgians calculated that, with Putin in Beijing, they could recapture the capital in two days and then defend it over the next two months, because the Russians won't take this lying down."
If Georgia calculated that Russia would be inhibited by Putin's presence at the Olympics, that soon backfired.
Within hours, the Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, chaired a session of the security council in the Kremlin, ordering units of the 58th Russian army to retake Tskhinvali. The Russian president's military credentials are so weak - he had no other choice.
Many of the 75,000 inhabitants of Tskhinvali and its outlying villages are now Russian citizens, with passports and rights to settle in Russia.
Northern Ossetia, with whom the southern separatists want to join, is formally part of the Russian Federation. While Georgians view South Ossetia as a part of its sovereign territory, there is a rival Ossetian claim.
It predates the current authoritarian regime in the Kremlin, but still links the enclave to the mothership of the Russian Federation.
Jonathan Eyal, the director of studies at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), warned that all-out war between Russian and Georgia would amount to "the worst crisis in Europe since the end of communism".
He described Georgia's decision to shell Tskhinvali as a brazen effort to humiliate the Russians.
"It is clearly a calculated gamble by the Georgians," he said.
"If they manage to overrun South Ossetia, where there are probably only around 1,000 Russian troops at the moment, they will have humiliated Russia and would have created a triumph for themselves.
"They will also have propelled the west into a diplomatic involvement on the ground."
Eyal claimed there was considerable sympathy among western powers over Georgia's difficult relationship with Russia.
He said the country was suffering from a deliberate "strategic fomentation" of the separatist movement by the superpower.
However, he warned that taking on Russia at a time when Medvedev was keen to establish his influence carried significant risk.
Russia could not afford to stand quietly by while Georgia made such a public assault on its troops stationed in the region, he said.
"There is an element of trying to call the Russians' bluff by assuming that the Russians will not be able to afford all-out war in Georgia," he added.
"I personally don't buy that … Putin cannot afford to be seen to be humiliated in such a brazen, public way. It's inconceivable that the Russians will sit quietly by.
"The only possible outcome is that either a ceasefire is negotiated and a mediation effort begins, or it goes out into an all-out war."
Eyal said he believed Georgia's move to strike South Ossetia would generate a mixed reaction from world powers.
He described a feeling that the country was "more sinned against than sinning" but that there was also significant frustration over the actions of its president.
"If it goes into an all out war, the predicament for the west is acute and the crisis would be the worst crisis in Europe since the end of communism.
"It would be much worse than the Yugoslav wars, mainly because it has the old traditional element of an east-west confrontation.
"There is considerable sympathy for Georgia among western governments such as the US and London. It is clear that the Russians have fomented the separatist movement for a particular strategic purpose.
"There is also, however, an enormous amount of frustration with the reckless behaviour of the Georgian president at this moment."
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Before we move on to 2014 and beyond, and with 2008 events shown above - do you agree that Russia was trying to be friendly and cooperative in 2000s?
Or do you have some other proof that it was the same tyrannical authoritarian state treating everyone around them as subjects?
Last edited by Shalcker; 2022-02-23 at 02:24 PM.
Bullshit. Let's see what wiki says.
That's what I thought. Russia backed terrorists being the instigators, exactly like in Eastern Ukraine in 2014, as well as in our current year 2022.Following the election of Vladimir Putin in Russia in 2000 and a pro-Western change of power in Georgia in 2003, relations between Russia and Georgia began to deteriorate, reaching a full diplomatic crisis by April 2008. From 1 August 2008, South Ossetian separatists shelled Georgian villages, with a sporadic response from Georgian troops in the area.[32][33][34][35][36] Artillery attacks by pro-Russian separatists broke the 1992 ceasefire agreement, which stipulated this type of weaponry was not allowed to be deployed in the conflict zone.[38][39][40] When Georgian president Saakahsvili announced a unilateral ceasefire on the evening of 7 August 2008,[41][42][43] a new wave of South Ossetian attacks on Georgian villages followed.[44] This triggered the Georgian government into "restoring the constitutional order",[45] and sending the Georgian Army to the South Ossetian conflict zone just before midnight on 7 August.[46] Georgian troops took control of most of Tskhinvali, a separatist stronghold, in hours
Friendly and cooperative? As we can read, you spent 2003 to 2008 cooking up excuses for war. Not very friendly or cooperative.
Do you agree Russia has been extremely untrustworthy and hostile for past 100 years at the very least?
I'm still trying to figure out why people can get away with cheering on Putin, who is quite literally acting like a Nazi, and continuously getting caught pushing lies and misinformation in order to shill for those wannabe Nazis.
Some of them are Russians themselves and it's a natural response honestly to go into defense mode.
But mind you that nobody is actually defending Russia but all of those " defenders" are just blaming the US because the US is bad and invaded XYZ country at some point in the last 70 years.
And if you point out this whatboutism the response is " yea well whatabout the USA"
Massive cyberattacks have just been launched against Ukraine, including the government, foreign ministry and security services according to the BBC.
Last edited by Corvus; 2022-02-23 at 03:05 PM.
All involved Russia; everything else was different.
You could check this CNN fact sheet
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1918-1921- Georgia is briefly an independent state after separating from the Russian Empire.
1921 - After the Red Army invasion, Georgia and Abkhazia are declared Soviet Socialist republics.
1922 - The South Ossetia Autonomous Oblast is created within Georgia.
1931 - Abkhazia's status is reduced to an autonomous republic within Georgia.
1990 - South Ossetia declares its independence from Georgia.
April 9, 1991 - Georgia declares independence.
1991-1992 - Civil war breaks out in Georgia. Zviad Gamsakhurdia is deposed as president.
1992 - Abkhazia declares its independence from Georgia, leading to armed conflict.
October 1992 - Eduard Shevardnadze is elected to lead Georgia. He is reelected in 1995 and 2000.
September 1993 - Abkhazian separatist forces defeat the Georgian military.
October 1993 - Georgia joins the Commonwealth of Independent States.
May 1994 - A ceasefire is agreed upon and signed between the Georgian government and Abkhaz separatists. Russian peacekeeping forces are deployed to the area.
===
Georgia lost the war to Abkhaz separatists. They were saved by Russian intervention and diplomacy.
===
October 2001 - Fighting resumes between Abkhaz troops and Georgian paramilitaries. Russia states that it believes Georgia is harboring Chechen rebels, a claim denied by Georgia.
September 2002 - Russian President Vladimir Putin sends a letter to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, UN Security Council members, and members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe stating that Georgia must respond to accusations they are harboring Chechen militants or face military action from Russia.
October 2002 - Tensions with Russia are defused after Shevardnadze promises to work with Russia to fight Chechen rebels.
November 2003 - Shevardnadze is forced to leave office in the "Rose Revolution."
July 2005 - Under terms of a deal reached in May, Russia starts to withdraw its troops from two Soviet-era military bases.
May-June 2006 - Tensions between Georgia and Russia rise again when Georgia demands that Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia have visas.
November 12, 2006 - A referendum is voted upon in which South Ossetians overwhelmingly demand independence.
November 2007 - Russia announces that it has withdrawn its Georgia-based troops. It retains a peacekeeping presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
April 3, 2008 - NATO members at a summit in Bucharest, Romania, defer the decision on Georgia and Ukraine's admittance until December 2008.
April 21, 2008 - Georgia accuses Russia of shooting down an unmanned drone over Abkhazia on April 20. Russia denies the claim.
April 29, 2008 - Russia sends more troops to Abkhazia to counter what it says are Georgia's plans for an attack.
May 26, 2008 - A UN investigation concludes that the drone shot down on April 21 was struck by a missile from a Russian fighter jet.
May 30-31, 2008 - Russia sends several hundred unarmed troops to Abkhazia, saying they are needed for railway repairs. Georgia accuses Russia of planning a military intervention.
August 7-8, 2008 - Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili sends troops into South Ossetia. Russia responds by moving its troops to the border, flying aircraft over Georgia, and beginning air strikes in South Ossetia.
August 8, 2008 - The United States, United Kingdom and NATO call for a cease fire of military hostilities by both Russia and Georgia.
===
Note - "sends troops into South Ossetia" means "shells capital of South Ossetia Tshinvali where Russian peacekeepers are located with artillery and MLRS for several hours starting at 23:35 7 August".
And US spent those years leaving critical defense treaties like ABM treaty, enlarging NATO, supporting separatists in Kosovo - even recognizing their independence, supporting variety of color revolutions (of which Saakhashvili was also product) and nationalist movements in Russian abroad.Friendly and cooperative? As we can read, you spent 2003 to 2008 cooking up excuses for war. Not very friendly or cooperative.
No. Russia made plenty of conciliatory moves.Do you agree Russia has been extremely untrustworthy and hostile for past 100 years at the very least?
Removed missiles from Cuba (and even kept agreement that US will in turn remove missiles from Turkey secret as promised). Allowed German re-unification. Dissolved Warsaw Pact. Dissolved USSR too.
It was never enough for you.
You seem to understand "cooperation" only as "you do what we tell you to, and do not resist".
Add banks and health services to the institutions hit by the cyberattack.
The fact that you leave out the initial violence during the previous days shows you are intentionally being dishonest.
At 8:00 am on 1 August, an improvised explosive device detonated on the road near Tskhinvali and hit a Georgian police lorry, wounding five Georgian police officers. In response, Georgian snipers fired on South Ossetian positions, killing four Ossetians and wounding seven.
You have no idea.
In Georgian case you say "OMG, Russia, how can you defend territory held by minorities when bigger nation tries to enforce historical claim to it?!"
And in Russian case you say "OMG, Russia, how can you lay historical claim on territory held by breakaway minorities in independent country?!"
Typical Western double standards.
Yes, we learned from you. You were great teachers in that regard.Oh, and nice projection. Because that's exactly Russias MO, and what you've been repeating endlessly here.
- - - Updated - - -
I already addressed that in Guardian article you can see upthread.
"Initial violence" had little to do with Georgian attack - low-intensity mutual shelling was going for a while.
“There you stand, the good man doing nothing. And while evil triumphs, and your rigid pacifism crumbles to blood stained dust, the only victory afforded to you is that you stuck true to your guns.”
We have multiple Russian posters and yet you can't understand why they support their side? You want to ban Russians from accessing Western servers or what?
In my opinion the entire world should be welcome in online debates and discussions. It helps the citizens of one country to understand the other.