Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Rasulis]

Stingers are anti air not anti tank
Edit: And they very much fulfilled their primary purpose by being used to shoot down soviet aircraft in the USSR / Afghan conflict

Whoops. Got it mixed up with Javelin. Which is in short supply also.

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War is business. Nothing new, really.

Yep. The orders for HIMARS are coming in fast. Singapore wants 52 launchers. Who's going to attack Singapore?

Twenty-nine for Taiwan. Lockheed Martin is even working on anti-ship version of HIMARS missiles. Supplying weapons to Taiwan got Lockheed Martin a China sanction back in July.

[Elenos]

@Rasulis Regarding HIMARS. Ukraine is mainly using the GMLRS missiles, 6 per pod, and based on videos when Ukraine seeks to strike a target they fire the entire pod, because Russia does have a lot of air defense systems that can intercept them so they fire a lot of missiles, and also use older Soviet types at the same time to basically overwhelm air defenses. So Ukraine may be using dozens if not over 100 of missiles a day.

You're probably looking at thousands of missiles a month being used by Ukraine at this stage, certainly hundreds, and that's only going to increase the more systems Ukraine receives. The current yearly production according to what I've found is just over 9.000 a year. Total production of the main missile type was over 40.000, though that's throughout the entire lifetime of the system.

There's a real risk that Ukraine can and will run out of ammo, they certainly have reached critical levels for soviet types and even western ammo is at risk. If the intensity of the war continues for another half year as it has so far things are going to get quite ugly.

I think an article said it best: Whoever runs out of ammo first will lose the war and it may just come to that.

Yep. The orders for HIMARS are coming in fast. Singapore wants 52 launchers. Who's going to attack Singapore?

Launchers and even then it will take years for any country ordering HIMARS to receive any of them. Certainly the orders are going to come after the success in Ukraine.

[Corvus]

Russian air defences have proved useless at intercepting himars rockets. The manufacturers boasted it could but when it turns out it couldn't russian authorities laid charges against them.

Each rocket can be programmed individually so when they fire them all off it doesn't mean they are all for the same target. Often they are programmed one per vehicle. There is video of himars strikes on a russian sp-art battery. Each vehicle received precisely one rocket strike despite being spread out.

Oh, and was reading a report that was saying Russia is suffering critical ammunition shortages. They are using stuff so old it's highly dangerous and leaving them no reserves if they get into a conflict with NATO.

[Edge-]

Russian air defences have proved useless at intercepting himars rockets. The manufacturers boasted it could but when it turns out it couldn't russian authorities laid charges against them.

Oh, and was reading a report that was saying Russia is suffering critical ammunition shortages. They are using stuff so old it's highly dangerous and leaving them no reserves if they get into a conflict with NATO.

So...should there be a NATO conflict are we going "Enemy at the Gates" style where one soldier gets the gun and the other gets the spare magazine? It sure seems like they're on their way to that.

[jonnysensible]

quite obvious now russia is preparing for a spring offensive imo. They are trying to reconstitute battlegroups over the winter with all the mobiks.

Be surprised if Ukraine isn't preparing for this now as well. Hopefully they can inflict alot more attrition over the winter.

[Iphie]

So...should there be a NATO conflict are we going "Enemy at the Gates" style where one soldier gets the gun and the other gets the spare magazine? It sure seems like they're on their way to that.

Hey, psst! The newly mobilised are already complaining they're not getting ammo, and only one machine gun per squad... they're literally worse than the movie.

[Corvus]

So...should there be a NATO conflict are we going "Enemy at the Gates" style where one soldier gets the gun and the other gets the spare magazine? It sure seems like they're on their way to that.

Yeah, thats already going on more or less. I need to go back through Rob Lee's feed for all the details, but he is a good source for it as he gets a lot of it from russian sources. There are complaints that weeks after mobilisation that large numbers of mobiks are still without weapons and are even being sent to the front without them. And plenty that are being given them are getting weapons in such a bad state that they are of little use.

Oh, and if you want more evidence of just how bad the mobilisation planning has been, russian sources have been complaining that mobilised men are being flown on private airline - and being charged for excess baggage. The men, not the government. And given they are having to buy their own gear, with their own money, because they aren't being provided it, they all have excess baggage. So it seems they are being gouged for every last ruble they have before they invariably die.

[Edge-]

Oh, and if you want more evidence of just how bad the mobilisation planning has been, russian sources have been complaining that mobilised men are being flown on private airline - and being charged for excess baggage. The men, not the government. And given they are having to buy their own gear, with their own money, because they aren't being provided it, they all have excess baggage. So it seems they are being gouged for every last ruble they have before they invariably die.

So...buy your own gear, buy your own winter clothes, buy your own sleeping gear, buy your own flack vests and helmets, buy your own gloves, all you get is one(?) uniform and a Kalashnikov that probably just got discovered in a storage closet that hasn't been opened since 1972?

And now also buy your own flight to training camp and pay extra for the checked back with everything that you've already paid 4-5x the normal price for?

Old USSR habits seem to be real hard to kill off.

[Iphie]

So...buy your own gear, buy your own winter clothes, buy your own sleeping gear, buy your own flack vests and helmets, buy your own gloves, all you get is one(?) uniform and a Kalashnikov that probably just got discovered in a storage closet that hasn't been opened since 1972?

And now also buy your own flight to training camp and pay extra for the checked back with everything that you've already paid 4-5x the normal price for?

Old USSR habits seem to be real hard to kill off.

No, if the USSR habits would have been followed then they would have gotten at least basic equipment...

[zealo]

So...buy your own gear, buy your own winter clothes, buy your own sleeping gear, buy your own flack vests and helmets, buy your own gloves, all you get is one(?) uniform and a Kalashnikov that probably just got discovered in a storage closet that hasn't been opened since 1972?

And now also buy your own flight to training camp and pay extra for the checked back with everything that you've already paid 4-5x the normal price for?

Old USSR habits seem to be real hard to kill off.

The USSR wasn't really in the habit of intentionally leaving troops unequipped, movies like enemy at the gates are responsible for misconceptions that doesn't really map to real history with the red army like that.

[Corvus]

Been a while since russian losses were brought up. Ukraine is saying that russian KIAs now are 73,000, and that losses are accelerating of late. The last part is easy to understand given the way untrained mobiks are being thrown into battle without proper equipment. Even if it is only half that number it is a staggering number.

Oryx is listing confirmed russian losses at seven and a half thousand vehicles and units of heavy equipment. That includes 1400 tanks. They are never going to be able to replace all they have lost.

Oh, and russian naval infantry suffered more dead in just 2 days assaulting a single town than they did in the entire First Chechen War.

[Iphie]

Oh, and russian naval infantry suffered more dead in just 2 days assaulting a single town than they did in the entire First Chechen War.

That tweet is, wow. Imagine thinking you are fighting Donetsk militias only to discover they are actually naval infantry...

[ifrah]

The thing that still concerns me a bit is that despite of all the doom and gloom over Russia's capability to keep their troops in any kind of condition, Ukraine hasn't regained much ground in the grand scheme of things. Will their rate of advance increase? I don't know, regardless of the sanctions would be foolish to think Russia would not allocate every factory they possibly can to throw in the kitchen sinks and whatnots. Ukraine is feeding on alms, which fortunately are still there, but I have my concerns when looking at what Germany and that lapdog of Scholz is doing.
The upper hand for Russia is that there won't be any no fly zones or other UN-mandated interventions. China and their "friends" got that side covered.

Just my semi-pessimistic speculation here, so I'm happy to be corrected and educated.

[Lahis]

The thing that still concerns me a bit is that despite of all the doom and gloom over Russia's capability to keep their troops in any kind of condition, Ukraine hasn't regained much ground in the grand scheme of things. Will their rate of advance increase? I don't know, regardless of the sanctions would be foolish to think Russia would not allocate every factory they possibly can to throw in the kitchen sinks and whatnots. Ukraine is feeding on alms, which fortunately are still there, but I have my concerns when looking at what Germany and that lapdog of Scholz is doing.
The upper hand for Russia is that there won't be any no fly zones or other UN-mandated interventions. China and their "friends" got that side covered.

Just my semi-pessimistic speculation here, so I'm happy to be corrected and educated.

Germany is eagerly waiting for the moment they can fold over and start sucking that Russian (gas) pipe again.

We'll see what happens after US elections. MAGAlets taking control of congress and senate will definitely drop support from Ukraine.

[Poopymonster]

So...buy your own gear, buy your own winter clothes, buy your own sleeping gear, buy your own flack vests and helmets, buy your own gloves, all you get is one(?) uniform and a Kalashnikov that probably just got discovered in a storage closet that hasn't been opened since 1972?

And now also buy your own flight to training camp and pay extra for the checked back with everything that you've already paid 4-5x the normal price for?

Old USSR habits seem to be real hard to kill off.

Sounds like the Russian population is paying quite a premium to clothe the Ukraine military.
After the Russian surrenders or is shot in combat that is.

[Makabreska]

Germany is eagerly waiting for the moment they can fold over and start sucking that Russian (gas) pipe again.

We'll see what happens after US elections. MAGAlets taking control of congress and senate will definitely drop support from Ukraine.

Dunno about these, they now started to make deals with China in place of Russia (Sholz and big CEO's are in Beijing as we speak). Also, don't think USA would suddenly scale down help.

[Nymrohd]

Germany is eagerly waiting for the moment they can fold over and start sucking that Russian (gas) pipe again.

We'll see what happens after US elections. MAGAlets taking control of congress and senate will definitely drop support from Ukraine.

I would think that there is enough bipartisan support for the support to continue. There will be pressure from the MAGA side of the GOP to drop support ofc but I think the majority in the House and a supermajority in the Senate will still back support. Messaging will definitely suffer though.

[Twdft]

US arms industry making a fortune with the war, just wait until their lobbyists contact newly elected republicans... support for Ukraine will not drop. It's just a matter of soundbites to sell it

[Corvus]

The thing that still concerns me a bit is that despite of all the doom and gloom over Russia's capability to keep their troops in any kind of condition, Ukraine hasn't regained much ground in the grand scheme of things. Will their rate of advance increase? I don't know, regardless of the sanctions would be foolish to think Russia would not allocate every factory they possibly can to throw in the kitchen sinks and whatnots. Ukraine is feeding on alms, which fortunately are still there, but I have my concerns when looking at what Germany and that lapdog of Scholz is doing.
The upper hand for Russia is that there won't be any no fly zones or other UN-mandated interventions. China and their "friends" got that side covered.

Just my semi-pessimistic speculation here, so I'm happy to be corrected and educated.

It's the infamous mud season in Ukraine. Nothing much moves except along main roads which makes it easier to defend against.

As soon as winter arrives the ground will freeze over and vehicles will be able to off-road again. And it comes with the added bonus of all those unprepared russian mobiks freezing.

[Endus]

It's the infamous mud season in Ukraine. Nothing much moves except along main roads which makes it easier to defend against.

As soon as winter arrives the ground will freeze over and vehicles will be able to off-road again. And it comes with the added bonus of all those unprepared russian mobiks freezing.

There's also something to be said for the firehose approach Russia classically takes. The whole "quantity has a quality all of its own" thing. It's not working here, but Russia can keep the firehose of soldiers going a bit longer. Ukraine's holding ground while being hit with the firehose, which is all it needs to do, as long as it can maintain enough strength to push forward when the firehose, inevitably, runs dry.