Russian invasion of Ukraine

[melzas]

Even if it turns out true, and Russia did hit Poland with a missile, all that is going to happen is Russia deny everything saying it's Ukrainian provocation and west "believing" that for the sake of not going into WW3.

Wish it wasn't the truth, but that's the most likely scenario in my opinion.

[Combatbutler]

I think a lot will depend on how russia responds.

Denial, whether poland will accept it or not, is the interesting bit.

[melzas]

Polish national TV already confirmed it was a missile... Interesting.

[Saradain]

Grain dust explosions are nasty though.

As for 1 is an accident, 2 not so much, depends entirely on how the were fired, I mean plenty of stories of friendly fire incidents with multiple projectiles fired accidentally at the same target.

I think a lot will depend on how russia responds.

I would bet money on the rockets being stray ones, since Russia doesn't give a fuck how many civilians they murder. But I will be fucking disgusted if Russia is just scolded and reprimanded ie no real penalty whatsoever. Sanctions? Sure, but adding million more of those is just meh when Ukraine should at long last get real help.

Russia needs to buy time to re-organize, it's time to liberate Ukraine entirely, I say.

There is literally no shame in acting like Russia does. Russia states it is special military operation, not a war. So let Ukraine request a joint military training from NATO, since there is no war. And we'll truly see how fast Russia is gonna fuck off from Ukraine if they want to continue existing...

[Combatbutler]

Russia needs to buy time to re-organize, it's time to liberate Ukraine entirely, I say.

There is literally no shame in acting like Russia does. Russia states it is special military operation, not a war. So let Ukraine request a joint military training from NATO, since there is no war. And we'll truly see how fast Russia is gonna fuck off from Ukraine if they want to continue existing...

The Nato nations have not enough interest in the whole affair, using the Ukrainians as fodder and supplying them with weapons, is the typical modus operandi of the western powers, though it might change, it is doubtful.

[Saradain]

The Nato nations have not enough interest in the whole affair, using the Ukrainians as fodder and supplying them with weapons, is the typical modus operandi of the western powers, though it might change, it is doubtful.

Which is why I am somewhat glad the west is getting a harsh wake-up call for having any relations (apart from minimal diplomatic ones) with Russia whatsoever. We'll see how many times we get Surprise Pikachu Face'd until the civilized world decides to right the wrongs.

[Combatbutler]

Which is why I am somewhat glad the west is getting a harsh wake-up call for having any relations (apart from minimal diplomatic ones) with Russia whatsoever. We'll see how many times we get Surprise Pikachu Face'd until the civilized world decides to right the wrongs.

It is quite doubtful this will reshape the global structure that much, there will be just be one more pariah state for the west at the end of day, morality was never any kind of compass for the west, them sponsoring Ukraine up to this point is them telling Russia they fucked up royally and to stay in their doghouse.

[Saradain]

It is quite doubtful this will reshape the global structure that much, there will be just be one more pariah state for the west at the end of day, morality was never any kind of compass for the west, them sponsoring Ukraine up to this point is them telling Russia they fucked up royally and to stay in their doghouse.

If that is our sin, Russia and their ilk most definitely are far worse in that aspect. But all we can do is wait and see how this is gonna shape up.

Better to not expect anything to happen, rather be surprised positively if this means Russia is put to their place. I'll believe that when (if) I see it.

[Combatbutler]

If that is our sin, Russia and their ilk most definitely are far worse in that aspect. But all we can do is wait and see how this is gonna shape up.

Better to not expect anything to happen, rather be surprised positively if this means Russia is put to their place. I'll believe that when (if) I see it.

The russians showed their weakness, which is likely to have dire consequences for them, the west will most likely leave them battered in their little sanction corner, what the chinese will make of such a weak russia is what is interesting, they might have enough power to put them under their thumb at the end of it all.

[Gabriel]

Maybe Poland could BTFO the Kerch bridge and call it even.

[DarkAmbient]

Domestic political factors will likely compel Poland's prime minister to call for Article 5 to be invoked, but I doubt it would happen. Even if it did it would just mean some extra support rather than any significant ramping up of military opposition to Russia.

[ldev]

Domestic political factors will likely compel Poland's prime minister to call for Article 5 to be invoked, but I doubt it would happen. Even if it did it would just mean some extra support rather than any significant ramping up of military opposition to Russia.

Well then, until next "accidental" bombing from ruzz in NATO territory. West never learns.

[DarkAmbient]

Russia is denying it: https://www.rt.com/russia/566589-rus...kes-on-poland/

Missile fragments, whose photos were published by the Polish media on the scene, “have nothing to do with Russian weapons,” the Russian Defense Ministry said.

[Saradain]

Russia is denying it: https://www.rt.com/russia/566589-rus...kes-on-poland/

Link doesn't seem to be correct. Or is RT blocked in Europe?

But yeah, Nazi Russia denying something (on their Kremlin propaganda websites such as RT) is a nice not-so-subtle hint at the actual truth

[Combatbutler]

Well then, until next "accidental" bombing from ruzz in NATO territory. West never learns.

More like the West doesn't care, at the end of it. What matters to the west the most is money and political superiority, war is expensive, it is much cheaper to arm the people in Ukraine to fight and die for their interest of weakening russia, all the while owing them for the support in weapons and rebuilding later on.

[Biglog]

Some interesting diplomacy going on around the Russian missile strike on Poland. BTW, the strike was *9 miles* inside Poland, so it's very very unlikely that these were remains of Russian missiles hit by Ukrainian air defense. They wouldn't have gone another 9+ miles in that case. But a number of diplomats are pushing that story. For the Russians these were either intentional, or "duds" that went incredibly off-track. Considering the number of failed launches that have hit Russian buildings and infrastructure that wouldn't be entirely surprising.

Either way a very bad move by Russia even if unintentional, either risking targeting that close to the border and/or having weapons that inept (and especially knowing their missiles are quite prone to going astray). Diplomats on all sides will try to de-escalate, but there will be repercussions. It might be tomorrow, or it might be covertly 2 years from now, but it won't go unanswered. And it will also very likely lead to even more increased weapons help for the Ukrainian defense against the Russian invasion. Although that's turned into a haphazard Russian defense of their rout hoping to just hold onto Crimea at this point.

People tend to fight for their homeland a bit harder than invaders trying to occupy it for expansionist "Lebensraum", something they learned tragically 75 years ago firsthand but somehow forgot. It's why people study history, because it's as close as we can get to predicting the future. And when history is ignored and mistakes are replicated, the result is usually the same. And though the weapons are different there are plenty of parallels between Operation Barbarossa and this Special Military Operation in being a surprise attack after many false denials, failed logistics, failed military leadership, political meddling in military decisions, etc. And we aren't even to Winter yet.

[P for Pancetta]

Perhaps, but NK quality is shite and Iran claims not to be interested in supplying rockets, drones yes, rockets, no.

In any case "native" russian rockets are running out.

North Koreans probably make better rockets then the Iranians, the Iranian ones where developed based on North Korean ones. They've been shipping their missiles IKEA style in boxes to Iran for a while now. When the proxy war between Iran and the Saudis started, North Korean rockets where used to strike certain Saudi targets. These days the Iranians probably produce similar rockets themselves. Although it would be possible that certain parts are still sourced from NK.

[lllll]

Link doesn't seem to be correct. Or is RT blocked in Europe?

But yeah, Nazi Russia denying something (on their Kremlin propaganda websites such as RT) is a nice not-so-subtle hint at the actual truth

My google-fu shows that finland has blocked RT.

[Saradain]

My google-fu shows that finland has blocked RT.

Gotcha. Just wanted to see the source material myself but I'll take the word from here that its "legit".

[DarkAmbient]

Link doesn't seem to be correct. Or is RT blocked in Europe?

But yeah, Nazi Russia denying something (on their Kremlin propaganda websites such as RT) is a nice not-so-subtle hint at the actual truth

It's working for me and I'm in Europe. They just updated it with more:

Statements by Polish media and officials about the alleged ‘Russian’ missiles falling in the area of the village of Przewodow are “a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation,” the Russian military said.

The familiar odour of bullshit wafting out of the Kremlin.