Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Saradain]

I mean, it is two extremes because NATO is a defensive alliance that exists for this moment.

If it doesn't do anything, it means it just lost all credibility. It doesn't have to just be burning Russia to the ground immediately response, but they must respond with *some* show of force now.

If it is confirmed that Russia missed their actual target, resulting in stray rockets - it is very unlikely to trigger article 5. Accidents are not declarations of war. Even if the said accident stems from an illegal genocidal war against non-NATO country.

How about you calm your tits and wait for a week, browsing legit news sources to see how the thing unfolds?

[YUPPIE]

legit news sources

every news source is going ballistic right now, and Orban the Putin bootlicker, has actually convened an ongoing meeting over this as we speak.

[DarkTZeratul]

There are only two things that is going to happen

Horseshit. Despite your fetishistic hard-on for nuclear armageddon, and your infantile understanding of geopolitics in which every aggressor is Satan incarnate and every action must be met with fury and fire, and your frankly distressing professed desire to see World War 3 just so you can feel like your life will have some vague sense of meaning when you pointlessly die in combat, there are, in fact, other responses that are more than "NATO does nothing" and less than "NATO attacks."

[Edge-]

every news source is going ballistic right now

Narrator: This was not actually happening.

[Corvus]

russia is of course denying everything, but that is normal for russia when they ae guilty. Meanwhile, on russian social media you have people praising the attack.

I know russia's missile can be a little inaccurate, but this seems more so than normal.

[Gabriel]

russia is of course denying everything, but that is normal for russia when they ae guilty. Meanwhile, on russian social media you have people praising the attack.

I know russia's missile can be a little inaccurate, but this seems more so than normal.

Never underestimate just how bad russians are at everything.

[AntiFascistVoter]

There's a third super move that Biden will do..... /s

Deploy even more ABM and CRAM systems to Poland. And send slightly less advanced systems to Ukraine.


The bonus moment will be when Joe and Nancy drag all of the Putin-shills in congress while doing this.

[Xyonai]

Even as an Accident, missiles flying so wildly off course that they strike targets within NATO territory should be cause for recourse, as it shows Russia's poorly aimed and/or poorly maintained munitions have become a threat to anything within 100km of Ukraine's borders by virtue of their indiscriminate and careless bombings. Poland's internal politics will probably cause them to want to escalate as much as possible while, honestly, I can see Russia not wanting to enter negotiations at all and just continue to whine and cry about how the west hates them which means its up to NATO to decide how far to push things.

[Saradain]

If I had to pretend to be an armchair ballistic expert. I would first ponder:

- If the rocket strayed over 100 kilometers from actual target, how? Its trajectory being changed mid-air and so far off would probably happen high in the air...but why would it fly so high in the air above Lviv (assuming it was the target), instead of flying lower?

- Where was this rocket launched from? I don't know the rocket's type, or its max range.

- If the rocket did not stray due Ukraine's own missile defense system (because come on, is the counter-missile system a pebble of rock thrown at the thing, not destroying it on a hit??) - Then why in the hell would it stray so damn far? Russian incompetence is legendary, but 100km off the mark just sounds very odd.

I'm not gonna go into tinfoil hat theories such as the rocket (the one hitting Poland, not counter-measure ones!) being launched as form of escalation by others than Russia, until proven otherwise.

[Rasulis]

Does Russia still use one of these to aim the missiles?

[Corvus]

Elsewhere, people have been saying that Poland not shooting down the missile shows NATO weakness. But as others have pointed out, it landed only 10km inside the Polish border. Prior to that it was in Ukrainian airspace, which they couldn't shoot at, but when it hit Polish airspace, at the speeds it was travelling, it would have only been in the air for 30 seconds at most. Not enough time to shoot it down given there wasn't an AD unit parked right there.

[Xyonai]

Elsewhere, people have been saying that Poland not shooting down the missile shows NATO weakness. But as others have pointed out, it landed only 10km inside the Polish border. Prior to that it was in Ukrainian airspace, which they couldn't shoot at, but when it hit Polish airspace, at the speeds it was travelling, it would have only been in the air for 30 seconds at most. Not enough time to shoot it down given there wasn't an AD unit parked right there.

Which makes me feel like we're about to see NATO Anti-Air defenses start shooting down Russian junk that get too close to NATO borders. When you can't be sure if it's an 'accident' or not, why risk having hostile munitions detour their way into your country?

[YUPPIE]

Which makes me feel like we're about to see NATO Anti-Air defenses start shooting down Russian junk

russia has stated that would be a declaration of war, before. I'm sure no one give a fuck now, but it should be considered.

[Saradain]

russia has stated that would be a declaration of war, before.

Russia is free to take it as such, then. If they wish to abolish their federation, who are we to deny their birthright to change their empire?

[Iphie]

Seems that currently article 4 is the way that Poland is going.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-nov...nt-andrzejduda

https://twitter.com/prezydentpl/stat...26772390326273

Tweet is in polish.

[Xyonai]

russia has stated that would be a declaration of war, before. I'm sure no one give a fuck now, but it should be considered.

And it should be put into consideration, but only so much to parse how deep the buffer zone should be and if they should shoot down *everything* Russia made that flies too close or just rockets.

Accident or no, letting them get away with this shouldn't be an option.

[AntiFascistVoter]

russia has stated that would be a declaration of war, before. I'm sure no one give a fuck now, but it should be considered.

You're just lying on Putin's behalf.

US has already sent missle defense units to Poland. Putin did jack shit.

[YUPPIE]

all in all, regardless of how small-scale the response is, this is inevitably looking like it's going to result in a conflict with NATO and Russia.

[Corvus]

all in all, regardless of how small-scale the response is, this is inevitably looking like it's going to result in a conflict with NATO and Russia.

Nope. Talk is article 4, not article 5.

[Edge-]

all in all, regardless of how small-scale the response is, this is inevitably looking like it's going to result in a conflict with NATO and Russia.

If I didn't know better, I'd think you were excited by this fantasy.