Russian invasion of Ukraine

[YUPPIE]

The US wants to kill russia without having to be the one to hold the gun.

I'm sure we had this conversation several months ago: the one about the apocalyptic danger of a whole bunch of newfound little warlord terror states running amok in Europe after Russia itself collapses. That's the outcome Joe Biden doesn't want to see, and it's why he is offering Russia and Putin to surrender with their lives.

[Azadina]

I'm sure we had this conversation several months ago: the one about the apocalyptic danger of a whole bunch of newfound little warlord terror states running amok in Europe after Russia itself collapses. That's the outcome Joe Biden doesn't want to see, and it's why he is offering Russia and Putin to surrender with their lives.

With what exactly? Small terrorist states are easily crushed and destroyed, compared to one massive terrorist state. I'd pick the former any day.

[Gabriel]

I'm sure we had this conversation several months ago: the one about the apocalyptic danger of a whole bunch of newfound little warlord terror states running amok in Europe after Russia itself collapses. That's the outcome Joe Biden doesn't want to see, and it's why he is offering Russia and Putin to surrender with their lives.

The only thing they'll have left to run amok in is ruins of Moscow.

[Kathranis]

With what exactly? Small terrorist states are easily crushed and destroyed, compared to one massive terrorist state. I'd pick the former any day.

Man, I don't know. Afghanistan and Iraq were shitshows. Based on what's happening in Ukraine I feel like the US would fare better in a conventional head-to-head war against Russia than it did in the war on terror. Obviously a totally different scale, but seems like it'd at least be decided within months, instead of years or decades.

[Gorsameth]

Man, I don't know. Afghanistan and Iraq were shitshows. Based on what's happening in Ukraine I feel like the US would fare better in a conventional head-to-head war against Russia than it did in the war on terror. Obviously a totally different scale, but seems like it'd at least be decided within months, instead of years or decades.

Occupation is hard, destroying a countries military is, relatively, easy.

[Corvus]

The gerkin seems even more doomer than NOOOOKboy in his latest ramblings. Does make one wonder just who is protecting him given half the stuff he is saying would get anyone else suiciding out a window onto seven bullets in the back of the head. He admits that victory over Ukraine is impossible, that the current authorities are leading the country into catastrophe and that should they loose he will be hanged in Kyiv. Well, that last part isn't true as Ukraine outlawed the death penalty, but I'm sure a lot of people would be willing to make an exception.

[Kralljin]

The only thing they'll have left to run amok in is ruins of Moscow.

Russia is big and has multiple ethnities under its hood.
A balkanization if the central government of Russia collapses is absolutely on the table, and the Balkan states aren't / weren't the most peaceful states since yugoslawia fell apart.

Which is going to lead to more conflicts, refugees (and the Eastern European nations will surely love to take in Refugees that are ethnic russians) and so forth.
It's also going to cause a lot of drama internationally, if Russia falls apart, any major nation will leap on it because Russia is still a resource rich country, which, combined with the balkanization can lead to a lot of proxy wars.

While i don't necessarily see a intact russian government as the superior solution, considering that any successor of Putin will at best be Putin without the expanionistic tendencies, the alternative also isn't very appealing.

[Iphie]

The gerkin seems even more doomer than NOOOOKboy in his latest ramblings. Does make one wonder just who is protecting him given half the stuff he is saying would get anyone else suiciding out a window onto seven bullets in the back of the head. He admits that victory over Ukraine is impossible, that the current authorities are leading the country into catastrophe and that should they loose he will be hanged in Kyiv. Well, that last part isn't true as Ukraine outlawed the death penalty, but I'm sure a lot of people would be willing to make an exception.

People "mysteriously" die in custody all the time, accidents happen you know? I swear he ran into that knife 27 times... backwards!

[Elder Millennial]

Russia is big and has multiple ethnities under its hood.
A balkanization if the central government of Russia collapses is absolutely on the table, and the Balkan states aren't / weren't the most peaceful states since yugoslawia fell apart.

The break up of these super state doesn't have to necessarily follow the example of the Balkans, they just tend to be cited because it was a particularly nasty and unsuccessful break up process largely due to the violent genocidal tendencies of the dominant ethnic group.

Largely peaceful break ups are perfectly possible. We rarely talk about the Baltics and their break up process, or the separation of Czechoslovakia into Czechia and Slovakia. Hell, to some extent, even the UK with this goofy childish Brexit temper tantrum.

Thing is Russia first has to be knocked on its ass hard enough to give up on those dreams of empire, and second the international community needs to back the process with swift recognitions, investment, more open borders etc.

[Kralljin]

Largely peaceful break ups are perfectly possible. We rarely talk about the Baltics and their break up process, or the separation of Czechoslovakia into Czechia and Slovakia. Hell, to some extent, even the UK with this goofy childish Brexit temper tantrum.

I think those examples however have different circumstances.

The Baltics (and by extension, the entire Soviet Union) went that way because of
1. a time before the SU was still very much in living memory (anything within Russia's border has no memory of being separated from Russia / SU)
2. Most people within those states hated the SU
3. the SU still had internal borders, along which the entire thing broke up
4. the big guy in Moscow was not willing to use force to keep the thing together

Czechoslovakia also had the distinct advantage of only two parties being involved, both of which agreed that force isn't on the table to force their claims.

With Russia however, i think it gets very muddled on what those possible states want, where their borders are and how far they're willing to go to push their claims are some big wild cards in my view.
And as hinted earlier, if any foreign power sees it within their interest to push a specific separatist movement, this entire thing can get even messier.

When the Soviet Union fell apart, you pretty much just had the US as super power (to whom most european nations that formerly belonged the SU turned to), whereas now you also have both India and China (altough i don't think the former has the interest to push any separatist movement).

It could go that way, but for me there's far too much variance involved to say that we somehow highroll and everything goes a peaceful way.

[YUPPIE]

An update indicates that Russia in January-February is indeed going to try a zerg rush strategy to take Kyiv; commentators a few pages back were questioning the idea of Russia going all-in than something slow, but no:


Russia may attempt to re-enact a version of its original invasion plans, Ukrainian military officials believe, as Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned this weekend Vladimir Putin still has enough missiles to order more heavy strikes.

The Ukrainian president was speaking in the aftermath of the latest wave of missiles to target his country’s critical energy infrastructure after Russia launched 98 rockets at 20 cities and towns on Friday.

Officials said on Saturday, however, that repairs had been speedy with water supply restored throughout Kyiv and two-thirds of the capital now connected to electricity while the country’s second-biggest city, Kharkiv, had been reconnected to the grid after suffering a total blackout.

The infrastructure update arrived as a Ukrainian military commander warned Russia may again attempt to seize Kyiv after invading from Belarus in the north, potentially around the late February anniversary of when Putin first ordered his troops to invade.


Major general Andriy Kovalchuk revealed he could “foresee” Russian forces trying to invade Ukraine from the north, east and the south.

During an interview with Sky News Kovalchuk said: “We foresee such options, such scenarios. We are preparing for it. We live with the thought that they will attack again. This is our task.”

His assessment arrives as many analysts agree that the 10-month war has reached another pivotal stage, with both sides fighting their way to a standstill, prompting Ukrainian military figures to implore the West for more weapons to regain the initiative.

Their nerves are unlikely to have been helped by reports that the prime minister Rishi Sunak could be adopting an unduly cautious approach after having asked for an assessment of the war’s progress. Sunak’s request has reportedly prompted disquiet among some in Whitehall with military chiefs adamant that weapon supplies to Ukraine may prove decisive during the winter months ahead.

Last February Russian forces poured over the border from Belarus towards the capital of Ukraine, coming less than 20 miles from the centre of Kyiv. However, the offensive stalled before Ukrainian forces launched a counter-offensive to drive the Russians away from the city and eventually over the border with Belarus.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...versary-of-war
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[jonnysensible]

aquatic genocide.

please stop typing this lmao

[Gabriel]

Russia is big and has multiple ethnities under its hood.
A balkanization if the central government of Russia collapses is absolutely on the table, and the Balkan states aren't / weren't the most peaceful states since yugoslawia fell apart.

Which is going to lead to more conflicts, refugees (and the Eastern European nations will surely love to take in Refugees that are ethnic russians) and so forth.
It's also going to cause a lot of drama internationally, if Russia falls apart, any major nation will leap on it because Russia is still a resource rich country, which, combined with the balkanization can lead to a lot of proxy wars.

While i don't necessarily see a intact russian government as the superior solution, considering that any successor of Putin will at best be Putin without the expanionistic tendencies, the alternative also isn't very appealing.

Couldn't happen to a nicer country.

[Iphie]

Major general Andriy Kovalchuk revealed he could “foresee” Russian forces trying to invade Ukraine from the north, east and the south.

During an interview with Sky News Kovalchuk said: “We foresee such options, such scenarios. We are preparing for it. We live with the thought that they will attack again. This is our task.”

A very Finnish attitude, I approve.

[YUPPIE]

Russia is going to pull out all the stops it what it decrees its winter offensive to all-or-nothing Kyiv. If it fails, I don't know how they'll recover *in time* to renew a similar offensive.

[Veggie50]

Russia is going to pull out all the stops it what it decrees its winter offensive to all-or-nothing Kyiv. If it fails, I don't know how they'll recover *in time* to renew a similar offensive.

Right…

Step 1) go for an all out offensive

Step 2) get stopped before kiev

Step 3) most of your vehicles get taken out/left behind

Step 4) ukraine gets armed to the teeth by the west

Step 5) lets try step 1 again, except without the supplies we had then, and against far superior firepower than we faced before.

[Kaleredar]

Right…

Step 1) go for an all out offensive

Step 2) get stopped before kiev

Step 3) most of your vehicles get taken out/left behind

Step 4) ukraine gets armed to the teeth by the west

Step 5) lets try step 1 again, except without the supplies we had then, and against far superior firepower than we faced before.

Now what is it they say about repeating the same thing and expecting different results…

I’m hopeful that this whole experience might bring a certain poster around to reality, when their constant onslaught of “but what about Russia’s…” all end up amounting to absolutely nothing.

[DarkTZeratul]

I’m hopeful that this whole experience might bring a certain poster around to reality, when their constant onslaught of “but what about Russia’s…” all end up amounting to absolutely nothing.

Now what is it they say about repeating the same thing and expecting different results… :P

[D Luniz]

Right…

Step 1) go for an all out offensive

Step 2) get stopped before kiev

Step 3) most of your vehicles get taken out/left behind

Step 4) ukraine gets armed to the teeth by the west

Step 5) lets try step 1 again, except without the supplies we had then, and against far superior firepower than we faced before.

your forgot in step 5 ",and with most of the actual soldiers that had training and displine replaced with conscripts that are looking for anyway out they can find"

[Corvus]

Sheesh, the gherkin is going all out on trying to get himself knocked off. Maybe he is suicidally depressed. Latest from him - russians politicians and the president (ie pootie) are trying to distance themselves from the war. Is going badly so they want no part of it, not even talking about it if at all possible. And in another part of the same talk, they are saying Moscow is interested in a truce because of the 'hellish sanctions.' You know, those sanctions pootie says were having no effect.