Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

Now russia is admitting to 89 deaths from the HIMARS strike. Of course the clown show that is russia is putting a spin on it so outrageous even the military official reading the statement looks like he doesn't believe it.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...22419218628608

They claim many of the casualties weren't from the strike itself, but where a result of the building collapsing during rescue efforts. And that as 'revenge', they destroyed 5 HIMARS, 4 Vampire MLRS, more than 800 rockets, 8 vehicles and 200 troops in a strike on a warehouse. What they actually hit was an ice rink that held humanitarian supplies, like water bottles.

Of course there was no one around to ask inconvenient questions, like if they knew about this warehouse before hand, why did they wait until after the strike to hit it.

[Iphie]

Now russia is admitting to 89 deaths from the HIMARS strike. Of course the clown show that is russia is putting a spin on it so outrageous even the military official reading the statement looks like he doesn't believe it.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...22419218628608

They claim many of the casualties weren't from the strike itself, but where a result of the building collapsing during rescue efforts. And that as 'revenge', they destroyed 5 HIMARS, 4 Vampire MLRS, more than 800 rockets, 8 vehicles and 200 troops in a strike on a warehouse. What they actually hit was an ice rink that held humanitarian supplies, like water bottles.

Of course there was no one around to ask inconvenient questions, like if they knew about this warehouse before hand, why did they wait until after the strike to hit it.

They're also claiming that "unauthorised use of mobile phones" gave away the location of the base, so: No more smoking and no more calls for the russians...

[Corvus]

They're also claiming that "unauthorised use of mobile phones" gave away the location of the base, so: No more smoking and no more calls for the russians...

Have to blame the troops and not the muppet who decided to house hundreds of troops on top of an ammo dump. It's the russian way.

[Nymrohd]

Arresting has been going on strong since that sus failed coup attempt in 2016.

They sentenced the mayor of Istanbul during December.

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Have to blame the troops and not the muppet who decided to house hundreds of troops on top of an ammo dump. It's the russian way.

The question is, does it matter anymore? Do we expect internal pressure to change anything in Russia at this point if it hasn't already 10 months in this war?

[Santti]

The question is, does it matter anymore? Do we expect internal pressure to change anything in Russia at this point if it hasn't already 10 months in this war?

Well, something is going to buckle, eventually. This is just not sustainable for Russia. It just isn't.

Russia is stuck between rock and a hard place right now. They can't win, but they can't surrender, either. The image of a strong Russia would crumble into dust, and such image is everything for authoritarians.

[Nymrohd]

Well, something is going to buckle, eventually. This is just not sustainable for Russia. It just isn't.

Russia is stuck between rock and a hard place right now. They can't win, but they can't surrender, either.

At the moment the only solution seems to be for them to lose or at least to lose enough that Ukraine can declare it has won. For Ukraine atm this means returning to their borders before 2014 and they cannot actually get there without substantial changes in what help is offered.

[Iphie]

The question is, does it matter anymore? Do we expect internal pressure to change anything in Russia at this point if it hasn't already 10 months in this war?

The far right milibloggers are very angry with the russian army over this incident, this is bad news for putin as these are his most loyal supporters, if he loses them it's not looking good for him

[Corvus]

They aren't blaming pootie though. It's still the old 'good tsar, bad boyars' that is long a part of Russia. If only the tsar knew, he would fix it.

[Gaidax]

Well, something is going to buckle, eventually. This is just not sustainable for Russia. It just isn't.

Russia is stuck between rock and a hard place right now. They can't win, but they can't surrender, either. The image of a strong Russia would crumble into dust, and such image is everything for authoritarians.

This will take years, however.

I'm not even sure if Putin in the grave is going to change anything, because people who are gunning for his position are hardly peace doves themselves. Like that Wagner chief or Kadyrov - both of them are cold-blooded killers and Shoigu does not seem that much better anyway.

As you have noted, Russia can't afford to just pack up and leave, they are way too invested into it and Ukriane is just not strong enough to take back everything by force. So either West steps up their game or this will become a stalemate for half a decade until Russia decides to cut its losses.

I do think that there is a certain pickle for West too, stepping up the game too much may backfire hard, because Putin may end up doing what Russia did best and drown the enemy in blood of its own soldiers if this becomes yet another "great patriotic war" like back in WWII, where Soviet Union practically buried Nazi Germany under a giant pile of corpses.

[Iphie]

They aren't blaming pootie though. It's still the old 'good tsar, bad boyars' that is long a part of Russia. If only the tsar knew, he would fix it.

True, but the caveat here is: "yet", if russia gets beaten back too often eventually they'll put the blame on him, as they say: "russians forgive everything, except for a lost war." (probably paraphrased a bit.)

[jonnysensible]

can see why ukraine are worried about the iranian drones. Cheap drones capable of doing lots of dmg vs expensive countermeasures. only one side wins that attrition.

The classic 'how do you deal with drones' is of course :



It is much more effective to destroy the drone operator than the drone. Ukraine needs to be given the required arms to target launch sites and operators within Russia proper.

Western agencies should also target Iran and its proxies more heavily.

[Gaidax]

It is much more effective to destroy the drone operator than the drone. Ukraine needs to be given the required arms to target launch sites and operators within Russia proper.

Western agencies should also target Iran and its proxies more heavily.

Just destroy the operator 4head.

Drones are an issue not only because they cost nothing, but also because their operators are tucked safely away hundreds kilometers in some bunkers nobody knows about.

[Cynep]

I do think that there is a certain pickle for West too, stepping up the game too much may backfire hard, because Putin may end up doing what Russia did best and drown the enemy in blood of its own soldiers if this becomes yet another "great patriotic war" like back in WWII, where Soviet Union practically buried Nazi Germany under a giant pile of corpses.

Just for discussion, not that I disagree:
A pile of Belarusian corpses most intensely, plus Ukrainians; and unlike Stalin, Putin doesn't have those. This time minorities from autonomies are being mass sacrificed, which is equally evil and disgusting. (wikipedia page, accurate enough)

For bonus fun, sort the table by the last column, percentage of total population, and find where the Russian SFSR, which includes national minorities, is placed, and who is above it.

I was taught about this in early 1990s before handy Internet tables, so you bet Lukashenko knows this too. Might be part of the reason why he's dodging so hard.

[Gorsameth]

Just for discussion, not that I disagree:
A pile of Belarusian corpses most intensely, plus Ukrainians; and unlike Stalin, Putin doesn't have those. This time minorities from autonomies are being mass sacrificed, which is equally evil and disgusting. (wikipedia page, accurate enough)

For bonus fun, sort the table by the last column, percentage of total population, and find where the Russian SFSR, which includes national minorities, is placed, and who is above it.

I was taught about this in early 1990s before handy Internet tables, so you bet Lukashenko knows this too. Might be part of the reason why he's dodging so hard.

Considering the shear firepower and area coverage you can get with modern high tech weapons, I don't think even if Russia goes full great patriotic war, lets all run to the slaughter, it would be enough.

Ukraine has been getting the 'area' version of HIMARS missiles. That's 100's of thousands of steel balls that destroy 'soft targets' in a 4 football field area.
I wish you good luck zerg rushing against stuff like that.

[Makabreska]

I do think that there is a certain pickle for West too, stepping up the game too much may backfire hard, because Putin may end up doing what Russia did best and drown the enemy in blood of its own soldiers if this becomes yet another "great patriotic war" like back in WWII, where Soviet Union practically buried Nazi Germany under a giant pile of corpses.

These were different times and much, much greater terror and oppression put on Russian people. Not repeatable nowadays, especially when there was this unwritten rule in effect of leaving Russian people alone if they leave politics alone. Sure, he started to break it, but was trying to hide recruitment with bullshit, and many people simply fled abroad w/o much issue. GL to Putler if he starts enlisting people en mass to throw them to the grinder.

It's almost a year since Putler is stuck in Ukraine and getting humiliated, he would do a WW2 zerg rush much, much sooner, if he knew he could get away with it.

[Corvus]

Well, Australia is joining in the HIMARS purchase after seeing how effect it has been in Ukraine. Everyone seems to be wanting them.

Meanwhile Macron has announced that they will be sending the AMX-10 RC to Ukraine. Its sort of a cross between an APC and a light wheeled tank. Fast, agile and carried a 105mm main gun. And Biden has said that they are considering sending the Bradley IFV. As an interesting fact, the Bradley destroyed more Iraqi tanks than the Abrams did in the Gulf War. And the current russian tanks aren't much better than what the Iraqis had.

Oh, and add a T-90S to the list of destroyed russian tanks. It is the export version of the T-90A, which was meant to go to India, but pressed into service due to the losses russia has suffered. Oryx now has 1600 lost russian tanks, which is more than 40% of their active tanks at the start of the war. Export models are downgraded versions of the tanks they are based on.

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A report made back in November but only just reported has the head of the EU Military mission saying they estimate russian losses at 60K dead and 3 times that many wounded. A total of 250,000 casualties.

[Azadina]

A report made back in November but only just reported has the head of the EU Military mission saying they estimate russian losses at 60K dead and 3 times that many wounded. A total of 250,000 casualties.

I very much doubt that 1 to 3 ratio when it comes to ruZZlamist human wave, and abandon wounded buddy to flee yourself "army". Aren't those odds when army is well trained, supplied and has proper field facilities to treat wounded. RuZZkies don't, nor do they care to.

I also doubt RuZZkies even quite reach 1 to 2 ratio.

[Rasulis]

can see why ukraine are worried about the iranian drones. Cheap drones capable of doing lots of dmg vs expensive countermeasures. only one side wins that attrition.

The classic 'how do you deal with drones' is of course :



It is much more effective to destroy the drone operator than the drone. Ukraine needs to be given the required arms to target launch sites and operators within Russia proper.

Western agencies should also target Iran and its proxies more heavily.

Talking about Iranian Drones.

CNN Exclusive: A single Iranian attack drone found to contain parts from more than a dozen US companies

U.S. Looks at Ways to Further Target Iranian Drone Production, White House Says

[Corvus]

Oh the irony. While Europe is going through almost unprecedented warm weather for this time of year, reducing the need and hence cost of gas, russia, and pretty much russia alone is about to get hit by an extreme cold wave. We are talking -30c temperatures.

https://mobile.twitter.com/StarskyUA...83759930499072

[postman1782]

Oh the irony. While Europe is going through almost unprecedented warm weather for this time of year, reducing the need and hence cost of gas, russia, and pretty much russia alone is about to get hit by an extreme cold wave. We are talking -30c temperatures.

https://mobile.twitter.com/StarskyUA...83759930499072

Where is my tiny violin emoji.