Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Makabreska]

I dont think Putin cares any more .

I think he actually does. I don't think he is dumb enough to trigger a global conflict. Russian "might" was fully exposed in the past year. All he now has are threats that are being treated less an less seriously.

[Iphie]

I'm pretty sure blowing up the satellites of another country would count as an act of war.

I'm also pretty sure that only China has, so far, shown the capability of actually hitting a satellite in orbit. I'm ALMOST certain russia cannot pull it off.

[Lanrefni]

I'm also pretty sure that only China has, so far, shown the capability of actually hitting a satellite in orbit. I'm ALMOST certain russia cannot pull it off.

Russia has done it in the past,whether they still can is the question.

https://www.spacecom.mil/Newsroom/Ne...ant-long-last/

[Masark]

Unless Russans start to blow up satelites. No gps = no rockets that can target you.

As far as has been publicly demonstrated, nobody has anti-satellite weapons capable of touching GPS satellites.

All demonstrations of anti-satellite weapons thus far have been at targets in LEO, with altitudes of less than 1000km. GPS satellites (and other GNSS systems) hang out at about 20,000km.

Though I suppose in principle you could do something like grab a MEV and bolt a big bomb onto it. Would probably only work once though, as everyone would go full press evasion with their important satellites the next time you launched something.

[Doctor Amadeus]

Honestly at first I was totally in on support for Ukraine nearly a year later I'll admit I've got concerns 1. That the military aide the U.S has committed to easily reminds me of Afghanistan and Iraq meaning something think that later on is going to haunt us. 2. I am concerned with the Nazi flag photos I am seeing now maybe it's Alt-right propagandist bullshit that has managed to bleed through to one of my feeds, but I'm concerned.

However more specifically I support Ukraine, despite whatever issues they might have, Russia has no business or right engaging in another independent nations internal affairs if there ever actually were any as opposed to a full on invasion.

[Kaleredar]

I dont think Putin cares any more .

Russia is definitely going to care when the rest of the world starts getting real angry at them for imperiling and potentially destroying other country's satellites as well.

China is already pissed at Russia and basically calling this thing a wash. The rest of Russia's fly-by-night "alliances" are only gloming on to them as a cheap source of oil. And these countries care vastly more about their global trade and the hegemony of the financial system they operate in than Russia's ill-advised foray into trying to play superpower. Trade routes which rely heavily on things like GPS networks.

Literally nobody on the entire planet cares about Russia's success in Ukraine except Russia. All that does is buy them apathy, at best. And apathy can turn to hostility real quick if you give them a reason to be angry at Russia. Which blowing up satellites willy-nilly would most certainly do.

[ringpriest]

Can these mobiks guys who are placed into trenches kill anything? what is their job and why are they calling them mobilized? On every video they seem to die en masse without doing anything

I know Stalin said: "Quantity has a quality all of its own", but most analysts and experts are not really adhering to that anymore.

Sure they'll do something but in a battlefield where St. HIMARS exists that quantity is relatively meaningless.

They can make the Ukrainians spend time and ammunition killing them. In a way, this is even more useful to Russian operational leadership than properly trained soldiers (who would be better at staying alive, and thus not advance in ways guaranteed to take such high casualties). While pure mass-human-wave tactics aren't working, by sending in a never-ending stream of mobiks and convicts in small and scattered groups Putin's military has been able to locally overwhelm Ukrainian defensive positions in some key locations, just by throwing more men at the front than the defenders are able to kill (even with their available local artillery support). It's wouldn't work against dense defensive lines with lots of interlocking fields of fire, but the Ukrainians haven't concentrated that much along the entire front. It's an incredibly wasteful way to buy incremental advances with masses of human lives, but that's the current state of the Russian offensive (I hesitate to call the forces Putin has deployed in Ukraine a "military" at this point - it's more like a high-tech orc horde). I don't think it can even create an exploitable breakthrough (though I could be wrong, depending on how much armor Putin's forces still have, and how well the Ukrainians can move reserves), but it does let them incrementally take territory that is not very heavily defended, which the regime in Moscow sees as "success".

[Elder Millennial]

You guys want to have a stroke?

Here's 9 minutes of surreal gaslighting, a bit of double speak and some good old fashioned lying from the German government.



"Ukraine can't have German made tanks given to them by other NATO countries because Germany can't give tanks to Ukraine alone."

"This conflict must come to a peaceful diplomatic resolution."

"I'm not a military expert, military experts should decide what weapons Ukraine needs..."

"...the military doesn't get to decide what weapons Ukraine needs, that's up to the civilian government."

Keeps calling Ukraine, The Ukraine throughout the interview.

[zorkuus]

I honestly don't know what's wrong with the German's on this issue? Are they really willing to sacrifice the safety of Europe for their precious ruZZian gas?

[Elder Millennial]

I honestly don't know what's wrong with the German's on this issue? Are they really willing to sacrifice the safety of Europe for their precious ruZZian gas?

When you consider that they are not really even buying that much of it anymore and that returning to the status quo of buying Russian energy is politically unviable for decades to come it's not even about that anymore.

Germany unilaterally decided that it wants to cause a stalemate and force the Ukrainians into territorial concessions to end the war, because Germany knows best.

It's not even Germany tho, it's not even the Socialist, it's the Chancellery.

For me, the most annoying part is the complete unwillingness the actually articulate either the logic or the motivation behind this desire/decision.

Because the official reasoning given is utterly inconsistent, self contradictory, or almost comically nonsensical.

It's clear that if they actually came out, honestly, to explain their motivations people would condemn the ever living shit out of them.

So they lie and gaslight.

[Corvus]

The majority of Germans want them sent. Many politicians do too. It's largely down to Scholz. He is the very essence of a bureaucrat who dithers about decisions. It's sad he is in charge rather than just about anyone else.

If Baerbock had been in charge they would already be there. It days a lot when the leader of the Greens is more supportive of a war than you are.

[Gabriel]

I honestly don't know what's wrong with the German's on this issue? Are they really willing to sacrifice the safety of Europe for their precious ruZZian gas?

Yes.

We also broke them too hard after WW2.

[KrayZ33]

Yes.

We also broke them too hard after WW2.

I mean, as it always is in politics, opinions and decisions change overnight whenever it's required. But the official stance of the SPD+CDU is actually that there won't be long term russian gas-contracts even if the war ended today, since they are unreliable.
But they were "very very very, I swear to god -" reliable before the Ukraine war!!!11

Politics suck, most people that work in that business are shady as fuck (in every country) and should go to prison or worse.

The same politicans that said the war should end in a status-quo "for the sake of peace" are now saying that Ukraine shouldn't give up a single m², Russia should pay all the bills and they are terrorist. Why? Because otherwise they would've lost their position in the party they are part of... not because they actually think that way.

The majority of Germans want them sent.

No. That is not true, at least according to multiple surveys.
But that's because people don't know shit. They are intimidated by nuclear weapons, propaganda and whatever you can think about - and that's normal.
That's why a country should have able people at the top of the goverment to convince the population that it is the correct move to send them (and it is). People think that it's about Germany sending Leopard-tanks... but it's not. It's about allowing every other country to send them as well.

[XDurionX]

I honestly don't know what's wrong with the German's on this issue? Are they really willing to sacrifice the safety of Europe for their precious ruZZian gas?

Germany is buying exactly 0 russian gas anymore.

[Elder Millennial]

We also broke them too hard after WW2.

I really don't think that's the case.

During the Cold War both West and East Germany militarized the ever living shit out of themselves.

Armed to the teeth.

It's partially why half of Europe to this days runs mostly German gear and the other half bought metric tons of East German gear after reunification.

All that is a legacy of both Germanies going "Weapons industry and military purchasing goes BRRRRRR" from the 1960s to 1989.

This utter and complete spinelessness is a post Cold War, post reunification thing.

- - - Updated - - -

No. That is not true, at least according to multiple surveys.

The German government gaslighting its own population is partially why the population, in good Germanic tradition, toes the government line.

"If the Chancellor says we're giving enough and doing everything possible it must be true."

[Kralljin]

Because the official reasoning given is utterly inconsistent, self contradictory, or almost comically nonsensical.

The explanation is pretty simple:
Germany doesn't want to take a leading role on anything but economic matters.

Also, internal politics play a role here, as Russia is / was viewed generally favorable in east germany, an area where basically any party that isn't far right or far left struggles.

If Baerbock had been in charge they would already be there. It days a lot when the leader of the Greens is more supportive of a war than you are.

Funny enough, it was the greens that refused to sent actual weapons to Ukraine before the Invasion.
Vice Cancellor Habeck (also Green) visited Ukraine before the Invasion, broke party line by arguing that they should sent them weapons and got shat on by his own party for saying that.

Also, let's move back like a year.
https://www.politico.eu/article/berl...become-target/

That's why a country should have able people at the top of the goverment to convince the population that it is the correct move to send them

You're not going to undo decades of "weapons=bad" within a year.

West Germans literally made up the phrase "better red than dead" during the Cold war (altough the inverted phrase existed much earlier).

[Corvus]

Sunak has confirmed the UK will send around a dozen Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share

[KrayZ33]

You're not going to undo decades of "weapons=bad" within a year.

West Germans literally made up the phrase "better red than dead" during the Cold war (altough the inverted phrase existed much earlier).

The poster above you says the exact opposite about West- and East Germany arming themselves to the teeth during the cold war.
I think you are both incorrect and it doesn't matter in the slightest.

The way you argue sounds like the population doesn't want a proper military or whatever.
But that's not true. This is being surveyed rather frequently and most germans stand behind the Bundeswehr and after 2014 the popular demand for new weapons (like drones etc.) increased significantly. (and has always been a relative majority for a decade or longer)

Same thing about funding.
Just as many want more funding for the military as they want the same amount of funding they currently have. Only a *very* small minority (<15%) want less funding.
And the majority of people asked, want Germany to take a more active role in international security (NATO etc.)
Especially the Trump-era lead to that.

[Kralljin]

The poster above you says the exact opposite about west and east germany arming themselves to the teeth during the cold war.

I don't see that, he claimed that most people want to deliver tanks right now to Ukraine, nothing about the Cold war.

Putting aside that during the Cold war, neither West nor East Germany were truly sovereign nations and the East was part of the Soviet Bloc.

[KrayZ33]

I don't see that, he claimed that most people want to deliver tanks right now to Ukraine, nothing about the Cold war.

Putting aside that during the Cold war, neither West nor East Germany were truly sovereign nations and the East was part of the Soviet Bloc.

Well, this

During the Cold War both West and East Germany militarized the ever living shit out of themselves.

Armed to the teeth.

But I agree with you on them not being truely sovereign, that's why I disagreed with both of you.
What happened in East Germany was hardly the will of the people (even it had been, it has never been their decision)
And West Germany was heavily influenced by America and their joint military research etc. to the point that it was basically only possible due to that, and required due to that.

However, there is simply no (universal) mindset about "weapons=bad" in Germany, and hasn't been for over a decade.

edit: just googling it right now, the BMVg even does surveys on that themselves it seems. (on what Germans think about the Bundeswehr)
2021 only 28% thought that the equipment of the Bundeswehr is sufficient.

42% want an increase in funding, 40% want the same amount of funding, 12% want less funding and I guess the rest just doesn't know what to do.

edit2: searching about this further leads to statistics showing that the population of Germany seems to have pretty much the *exact* mindset of any other EU country. In fact, the biggest outlier is actually Italy, it's massively against weapon transports it seems and has been since the war started.
https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/...elt-nur-leicht

But I have to admit I'm not going much into how the data was aquired or whatever. But the numbers do seem at least somewhat realistic.