Russian invasion of Ukraine

[The Stormbringer]

given how the EU has already found workable gas alternatives, and gas being the only thing Russia has ever had to offer/trade, it makes you wonder if they're capable of entering the civilized world again after this war.

The generalization of Russians being barbarians is so seeped into Western culture since this happening, it's hard to imagine anyone will overlook them in any foreseeable future.

Could you elaborate on that? I haven't heard anything about them already finding 'workable gas alternatives', but I could just be missing things.

[Kallisto]

Could you elaborate on that? I haven't heard anything about them already finding 'workable gas alternatives', but I could just be missing things.

Different suppliers plus filling up storage over summer. Winter being warmer than normal helped too.

[ArcanaXVIII]

Could you elaborate on that? I haven't heard anything about them already finding 'workable gas alternatives', but I could just be missing things.

For instance Germany managed to build a LNG terminal in less than a year. They didn't even have a single one before as they didn't think having an alternative to russian gas could be a thing.

[Elder Millennial]

Could you elaborate on that? I haven't heard anything about them already finding 'workable gas alternatives', but I could just be missing things.

It's a variety of things. The extremely warm winter so far also contributes, giving more time to ramp up alternatives.

Increased storage capacity, more LNG terminals, more South to North pipelines for North African African suppliers, keeping or re-opening old coal plants in, increased energy efficiency, increased domestic production where available etc.

It's not just 1 thing. Current natural gas prices are around pre war levels.

[jonnysensible]

Could you elaborate on that? I haven't heard anything about them already finding 'workable gas alternatives', but I could just be missing things.

they went from one dicator Putin to another Aliyev

[The Stormbringer]

Thanks for the info! Hopefully they'll continue to push for nuclear/green power after all of this...

[YUPPIE]

I wouldn't know about that. The Qatar minister today acknowledged Russia, stating while it's bad now, the world will inevitably "forgive and forget" and do business again - citing past atrocities as an example.

[Gaidax]

so while this was mentioned before on and off, analysts have noted recently again the reason Russians refuse to surrender is that they believe if they conquer Ukraine, there will be normalcy again in their lives as the West will have no choice but to just concede given the resources they seize; if they fail, they believe they will never return to their previous way of life (i.e "normalcy" in Western brands, tech, etc).

Putin also thinks this way, which is why the Finnish president has worryingly said he's going to go on the warpath until he gets what he wants, regardless of victory being logically improbable.

Nonsense.

Putin knows that if he gets no results he will get hanged by the balls on the Red Square. He also knows that this shit is unwinnable - the momentum is long gone and at most he will have years of stalemate, except that he does not have years because clouds are gathering above him domestically.

So plan B he will go for - is going to be a loyalist successor that will on the one hand keep Putin out of trouble in retirement and on the other hand will be more palatable to cut some sort of deal with the West/Ukraine.

And he will do it within a year, because 2024 is elections and that is a huge risk for him, because faking results can go only so far before people actually are on the streets with pitchforks in hands.

[Crispin]

so while this was mentioned before on and off, analysts have noted recently again the reason Russians refuse to surrender is that they believe if they conquer Ukraine, there will be normalcy again in their lives as the West will have no choice but to just concede given the resources they seize; if they fail, they believe they will never return to their previous way of life (i.e "normalcy" in Western brands, tech, etc).

Putin also thinks this way, which is why the Finnish president has worryingly said he's going to go on the warpath until he gets what he wants, regardless of victory being logically improbable.

Where did you read that analysis that you refere to in the beginning?

- - - Updated - - -

I wouldn't know about that. The Qatar minister today acknowledged Russia, stating while it's bad now, the world will inevitably "forgive and forget" and do business again - citing past atrocities as an example.

We will eventually, could be 5 years, could be 80 years.

[Iphie]

I wouldn't know about that. The Qatar minister today acknowledged Russia, stating while it's bad now, the world will inevitably "forgive and forget" and do business again - citing past atrocities as an example.

Obviously, but not for a long time. Eventually everything will be..."normalized"...that is to say, an uneasy peace will exist until the current generations are extinct and then real normalization can occur. If russia is contrite and pays reparations it might go quicker.

[Iliena]

Russia's Wagner Group commander requests Norway asylum.

A former commander with the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group has claimed asylum in Norway after deserting from the mercenary outfit.

Andrey Medvedev, 26, crossed the border into Norway last Friday, where he was detained by border guards.

He is currently being held in the Oslo area where he faces charges of illegal entry to Norway, his lawyer Brynjulf Risnes told the BBC.

Mr Risnes said his client left Wagner after witnessing war crimes in Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64296979

Hope he squeals like a pig!

[YUPPIE]

And he will do it within a year, because 2024 is elections and that is a huge risk for him, because faking results can go only so far before people actually are on the streets with pitchforks in hands.

what? Russia is still a democracy? I didn't even know they still had elections.

[Iphie]

what? Russia is still a democracy? I didn't even know they still had elections.

Of course they're not a democracy, but they like to pretend, and putin is vulnerable he's old, he's losing and there's more and more evidence he's not exactly healthy. He won't survive another year in office the way it is going. If he puts up a successor he has a good chance of just fading away, if he does not sooner rather than later he will be removed. Prigozhin is already circling, but his failure at Bakhmut is not making him happy, Soledar is nice but peanuts in the grand scheme of things. Shoigu and Gerasimov are there to oppose Priggy, but they do have their own agendas as well.

[Kallisto]

what? Russia is still a democracy? I didn't even know they still had elections.

The Russian Federation has not been a democracy since 1993 when Yeltsin had tanks shooting at parliament. Since then it's been a one man show, first Yeltsin then Putin. Even dictatorships have elections, just they're never free and always if you vote "wrong" you get a case of not being around anymore.

[Fuiking]

It's a variety of things. The extremely warm winter so far also contributes, giving more time to ramp up alternatives.

Increased storage capacity, more LNG terminals, more South to North pipelines for North African African suppliers, keeping or re-opening old coal plants in, increased energy efficiency, increased domestic production where available etc.

It's not just 1 thing. Current natural gas prices are around pre war levels.

I have not seen those prices translate in lower energy prices in the Netherlands.. then again we are talking about the most greediest country in the world.

[Slirith]

Oh god, it's back

[YUPPIE]

Of course they're not a democracy, but they like to pretend, and putin is vulnerable he's old, he's losing and there's more and more evidence he's not exactly healthy. He won't survive another year in office the way it is going. If he puts up a successor he has a good chance of just fading away, if he does not sooner rather than later he will be removed. Prigozhin is already circling, but his failure at Bakhmut is not making him happy, Soledar is nice but peanuts in the grand scheme of things. Shoigu and Gerasimov are there to oppose Priggy, but they do have their own agendas as well.

are you genuinely implying there are people that can threaten Putin like that? As we've seen from at least 2022 to 2023, he kills anyone that even inconveniences him. He also does this in the most brutal way possible to intimidate the possibility of insubordination.

I definitely think he's completely in charge, and thus, the most accountable.

[zorkuus]

Hope he squeals like a pig!

He already did. But what does that do?

[Iliena]

He already did. But what does that do?

Reporting the war crimes and mistreatment he witnessed.

[zorkuus]

Reporting the war crimes and mistreatment he witnessed.

Errrrr... yes, and what then? Everyone already knows about plenty of warcrimes. What will be the consequences for these new revelations? Nothing, just like before? Exactly.