Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iliena]

He already did. But what does that do?

Reporting the war crimes and mistreatment he witnessed.

[zorkuus]

Reporting the war crimes and mistreatment he witnessed.

Errrrr... yes, and what then? Everyone already knows about plenty of warcrimes. What will be the consequences for these new revelations? Nothing, just like before? Exactly.

[XDurionX]

I wouldn't know about that. The Qatar minister today acknowledged Russia, stating while it's bad now, the world will inevitably "forgive and forget" and do business again - citing past atrocities as an example.

First stop to forgiveness would be to cease committing those atrocities.

[zealo]

what? Russia is still a democracy? I didn't even know they still had elections.

Like many autocracies, they like to pretend to give the people a voice even when the actual results themselves are rigged to all hell.

[Gaidax]

what? Russia is still a democracy? I didn't even know they still had elections.

You don't know anything, do you?

Yes they hold presidential elections and despite doctored numbers it's a very sensitive time for them. Previously when Putin turned out a strong show in elections, it was not beyond the realm of believable - he had a genuine peoples' support.

But now he won't be able to ride out on the horse with something like 70% vote without triggering mass protests which will be a major issue for the regime. Russians are not exactly happy with him at the moment.

[Gabriel]

First stop to forgiveness would be to cease committing those atrocities.

Fuck that. As long as the russian federation as a state exist, there should be precisely zero(0) effort to ever forgive anything.

[KrayZ33]

It always amazes me to hear how long it takes to get tanks, that are already built, ready for war or to be shipped, same with ammunition.

It's so hard to imagine that Rheinmetall needs like a year to get less than 100 Leopard tanks ready, even though they are in their stock right now. (Rheinmetall said so themselves)
300.000 shots worth of Gepard ammunition will takes 2 years as well. Sure, they won't send everything at once and will ship several lots over these 2 years, but still.
It's just weird to me.

This might be silly to hear but even though I'm aware that these things cost a lot of money and are quite complex and all of that, before this war, I always assumed that it would be no problem to build several (like 2-3) of these tanks from scratch each day (if needed and money isn't the problem) and when there is more than 1 factory involved. Even more when they are already built and just need to be modernized or be made battle-ready.

[zealo]

It always amazes me to hear how long it takes to get tanks, that are already built, ready for war or to be shipped, same with ammunition.

It's so hard to imagine that Rheinmetall needs like a year to get less than 100 Leopard tanks ready, even though they are in their stock right now. (Rheinmetall said so themselves)
300.000 shots worth of Gepard ammunition will takes 2 years as well. Sure, they won't send everything at once and will ship several lots over these 2 years, but still.
It's just weird to me.

This might be silly to hear but even though I'm aware that these things cost a lot of money and are quite complex and all of that, before this war, I always assumed that it would be no problem to build several (like 2-3) of these tanks from scratch each day (if needed and money isn't the problem) and when there is more than 1 factory involved. Even more when they are already built and just need to be modernized or be made battle-ready.

That's just the state of things when a country's economy is operating within peacetime boundaries, which a lot of Europe still is, a pressing need to scale up ammunition production even then aside.

Lets take a hypothetical and say Germany were mobilizing for industrial scale war as a nation as a direct combatant, it wouldn't just be the likes of Rheinmetall building vehicles for the military, but the production lines of the likes of BMW, Audi, Volkswagen etc would shift to producing war material at the direction of the state contracting them for supplying military needs, severely curtailing production for meeting civilian demands at the same time.

[Gabriel]

It always amazes me to hear how long it takes to get tanks, that are already built, ready for war or to be shipped, same with ammunition.

It's so hard to imagine that Rheinmetall needs like a year to get less than 100 Leopard tanks ready, even though they are in their stock right now. (Rheinmetall said so themselves)
300.000 shots worth of Gepard ammunition will takes 2 years as well. Sure, they won't send everything at once and will ship several lots over these 2 years, but still.
It's just weird to me.

This might be silly to hear but even though I'm aware that these things cost a lot of money and are quite complex and all of that, before this war, I always assumed that it would be no problem to build several (like 2-3) of these tanks from scratch each day (if needed and money isn't the problem) and when there is more than 1 factory involved. Even more when they are already built and just need to be modernized or be made battle-ready.

Its almost like Germany is dragging its feet on purpose like the bitch it is.

[Elder Millennial]

I have not seen those prices translate in lower energy prices in the Netherlands.. then again we are talking about the most greediest country in the world.

The prices of the wholesale energy market and retail energy prices don't really go hand in hand. The advantage of low wholesale prices right now is that power companies are refilling their storage capacity the second it's tapped and they are signing favorable contracts for shipments that are due in weeks and months.

During the worst price hikes last year, most Europeans were in fact either underpaying for the energy they were using or the power companies were still losing profits even if they were making their consumers pay the costs.

The issue is that in the EU retail energy price hikes are actually capped and at the same time retailers are expected to have rainy day funds to cover any losses. The prices are adjusted every couple of months.

The risk here for suppliers is that they might have to operate at a loss for a time, meanwhile the risk for the consumers is that they might overpay for a time.

Right now, consumers are still overpaying as the prices haven't been adjusted yet and they are still paying the high rates that were set when wholesale prices were at their peak.

This is why a few months ago windfall taxes were being discussed, as seemingly while energy companies have lost money for months, they more than made up for it when wholesale prices started coming down again. So they ended up making bank on the whole thing.

If wholesale energy prices stay where they are for another month or two, expect your power bills to come down during the next adjustment cycle.

Frankly, the EU needs to rethink the energy pricing model. This will be a costly and painful process, but the current model while it's really good at absorbing large shocks for the short term is really shit for a systemically unstable market.

And the energy market will stay unstable for years to come.

Of course the Germans and some other northern European countries like the Netherlands are absolutely allergic to systemic reform, no matter how obvious the problems are.

It seems like they still expect the market to magically stabilize itself...despite of everything imaginable pointing at the opposite.

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It always amazes me to hear how long it takes to get tanks, that are already built, ready for war or to be shipped, same with ammunition.

It's so hard to imagine that Rheinmetall needs like a year to get less than 100 Leopard tanks ready, even though they are in their stock right now. (Rheinmetall said so themselves)
300.000 shots worth of Gepard ammunition will takes 2 years as well. Sure, they won't send everything at once and will ship several lots over these 2 years, but still.
It's just weird to me.

This might be silly to hear but even though I'm aware that these things cost a lot of money and are quite complex and all of that, before this war, I always assumed that it would be no problem to build several (like 2-3) of these tanks from scratch each day (if needed and money isn't the problem) and when there is more than 1 factory involved. Even more when they are already built and just need to be modernized or be made battle-ready.

The German government is absolutely notorious for it's terminally inefficient, wasteful and painfully slow buerocracy when it comes to anything government contracting related and it's exponentially worse when it comes to anything defense related.

The German defense industry's primary contractor is not Germany, it's a mostly export geared sector. This stuff would have to be acquired via the traditional German governmental contracting routes.

Remember that 100billion euros +raise to 2% of GDP in defense spending that the government allocated back in March?

You know how much of it have they spent yet?

Fuckall. It's all stuck in committees, review boards, law suits (defense contractors suing each other for the tenders), ethics boards (the Germans are still debating the philosophy and morality of armed drones...it's literally delusional).

I'm sure they did some tinkering here and there, probably fixed up some units that were literally unfit for combat to combat readiness etc, but in reality they just put a big pile of money in the middle of the room then they sat on it and keep sitting on it.

Even their plans for renewable energy production are stuck in a limbo because some some shithead environmentalists whinge and whine about how the views (literally the fucking views) will be ruined by windfarms along the North Sea coast, and they have been litigating that in courts for 2 years.

The Germans are capable of phenomenal efficiency, when they want to. See how they got the certification and construction of an LNG terminal done in a matter of months when it would normally take something like 3 to 5 years.

[Shibito]

What is distinct is that if you look at Denmark, when they surrendered to Germany they actually got treated relatively decently. The Danish mortality rate in WW2 was one of the lower ones for involved countries. Since the Germans were never intending genocide on Denmark, they could offer 'You surrender and be treated well, or you fight us, lose, and you don't get treated well'.

The Russians can't offer something similar. They're already murdering the men, raping the women, and kidnapping the children in Ukraine. There isn't a 'You let us genocide your entire population or else' because there isn't a worse 'else' to hold over them. If the Ukrainians surrender, they die horrifically, and they know it.

Got worse in Norway, the city im born and raised called Bodø, in northern Norway. Was bombed to the ground everything leveled except the brewery cause germans wanted beer

[Lahis]

Its almost like Germany is dragging its feet on purpose like the bitch it is.

Won't help that their new defence minister is a Putinist.

[Iliena]

Errrrr... yes, and what then? Everyone already knows about plenty of warcrimes. What will be the consequences for these new revelations? Nothing, just like before? Exactly.

Well if you bothered to read the link he says he has proof, as far as I know he is the first combatant from the Russian side to come forward with any and I'm sure the UN War Crimes Commission will want to speak to him. This is an opportunity to weaken Russian political standing further, especially with those who are on the fence about Ukraine and could lead to more support for them.

[Elder Millennial]

It seems that the price caps on Russian oil imposed by the EU and G7 have been surprisingly effective. Even more effective than most in favor of it thought they'd be.



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Won't help that their new defence minister is a Putinist.

I am not sure he's a "Putinist". Him being part of the Russo-German "Friendship" group seems to have been a byproduct of him being the Deputy Chair of the Bundesrat.

Looking into it, from what I understand, it seems to have been an automatic assignment.

He seems to be the Social Democrats "internal security" guy, tho his previous focus seems to have been on domestic extremists.

I'm willing to give him the benefit out doubt, the decision on tanks and such is still ultimately in Scholz court.

While this guy did seem to have served in the military before college...I will never understand why in so many, especially European, countries they keep appointing people without military background into positions like defense minister. Is there no retired general or somesuch they can tap.

[Kralljin]

Won't help that their new defence minister is a Putinist.

If you want to find a person within the SPD that wasn't involved with Russia at some point, you'd have to look quite a bit.

SPD has been pretty friendly towards Russia for some time, that goes back all the way to the 70's where their first Chancellor, Willy Brandt changed course and wanted to be on more friendly terms with the Soviet Union.
It was also the same party that set up the energy dependence of Germany on Russia during the mid 2000's.

The politicians in Germany that openly warned against Russia are frankly not that many.

While this guy did seem to have served in the military before college...I will never understand why in so many, especially European, countries they keep appointing people without military background into positions like defense minister. Is there no retired general or somesuch they can tap.

Military is not popular in germany / europe.
It was seen as either Cold war relic or necessary evil, with a bit more emphasis placed on the evil.

The fact how the Bundeswehr has been handled post Cold war speaks to that, the defense ministry was largely seen as a position for senior politicians that due to their (internal) party influence deserve a ministry spot but were unable to get one of the more relevant ministries.

[Gorsameth]

While this guy did seem to have served in the military before college...I will never understand why in so many, especially European, countries they keep appointing people without military background into positions like defense minister. Is there no retired general or somesuch they can tap.

Because its not a military position, its a political one.

[Elder Millennial]

Because its not a military position, its a political one.

Yes, that's why I said a "retired general". Like is there nobody in their party or coalition parties with political and practical experience? Like not even necessarily military experience, but like a degree in security studies or something.

It's the same issue I have with many countries appoint people to positions like Secretary of Education or Minister of Education and the appointed person has exactly zero experience in education.

[KrayZ33]

Its almost like Germany is dragging its feet on purpose like the bitch it is.

Nah, why would Rheinmetall do this? They make money from that and if Germany allowed them to, they'd produce the shit out of the Leopard tank.
That has nothing to do with the goverment. The company itself isn't able to work faster, they still have ongoing jobs to produce Marder and Leopards for Greece and other countries that are completely unrelated to the Ukraine war.

The timespan I mentioned comes from Rheinmetall themselves, not from the goverment.
The 40 Marder tanks Germany is supposed to provide? Rheinmetall doesn't even 100% know for certain where they should come from.
They just send 20 to Greece and actually, they are supposed to send another 20 soon, but these 20 might be for Ukraine now.
Just to give an example.
The 88 Leopard 1 tanks they have wouldn't be able to be delivered this (2023) year, even if the goverment told them today to prep them up and send them to Ukraine
And that's the case even though Rheimetall has 1200 (more) new hires due and since the invasion started.

[Lahis]

Military is not popular in germany / europe.
It was seen as either Cold war relic or necessary evil, with a bit more emphasis placed on the evil.

The fact how the Bundeswehr has been handled post Cold war speaks to that, the defense ministry was largely seen as a position for senior politicians that due to their (internal) party influence deserve a ministry spot but were unable to get one of the more relevant ministries.

Only countries bordering Russia have felt the need to upkeep relevant level of military readiness. Wonder why.

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Yes, that's why I said a "retired general". Like is there nobody in their party or coalition parties with political and practical experience? Like not even necessarily military experience, but like a degree in security studies or something.

It's the same issue I have with many countries appoint people to positions like Secretary of Education or Minister of Education and the appointed person has exactly zero experience in education.

More often than not ministers have no experience on the fields they are supposed to govern. They are career politicians, they have never had any other job.

[KrayZ33]

And they don't necessarily have to as long as they at least know what is being talked about. They have staff and experts to tell them what might be good and what not.
For example, the "Inspector General of the Bundeswehr" is supposed to tell the minister what the military needs etc. (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eberhard_Zorn)