Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.
Agreed. The entire point of this conflict with Russia is BECAUSE Ukraine wanted to join NATO. Keeping them out because of it gives Russia and any other nation an out to prevent any other nation from joining. Just wage a conflict with them over it, no matter how minor.
Any conflict that is based on the nation in questions attempt to join should not count towards the conflicts that exclude them.
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And what is this conflict over? Ukraine wanting to join NATO, that should not be a conflict that excludes them. Otherwise you are giving Russia and any other nation out there the ability to make sure no other nation ever joins NATO just be starting a minor conflict with them every time they try.
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So instead NATO should just accept them and automatically put themselves at war with Russia? Ye, they will never agree to that. And good luck to Ruskies with starting "minor conflicts" just to prevent other countries from joining, looking how humiliating their current offensive is. They can only huff and puff when seeing Finland and Sweden applying.
Last edited by Makabreska; 2023-01-18 at 09:31 PM.
Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.
Yeah, I would say accept them and tell Russia that any further aggression towards them will be considered an attack on NATO as they only attacked Ukraine to prevent them from joining it.
Agreed that Russia bit itself in the butt on that, but at the same time, them allowing this to stand opens that option up in the future to Russia or other nations attempting the same.
Hate to say it, but NATO's justification for this is long past, they should have accelerated it the moment the conflict started. At this point would be just opportunistic about it. But to say they should never done it would betray the entire purpose of NATO.
NATO NEEDS to update their rules to ensure that conflicts over their joining NATO should never count as a conflict that prevents them from joining NATO which could help prevent future instances of this happening.
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And then we get WW3. Thank you and good night for humanity (Yes yes I know your little spiel, save it. If you're willing to end humanity then so be it. Sane people are 100% avoid nuclear war at all costs even if some nations get stuck in 1984 temporarily because alive in ALL circumstances is better than being a rotten piece of flesh or dust in the wind depending on if you die in the blast or slightly later.)
Sane people do want to avoid nuclear war, that includes Russia who knows they won't survive it. I didn't say just to go into Ukraine guns blazing.
I said, that near the start of this, NATO should have told Russia that this will not stop their admission and that the moment their admission is granted, NATO will be moving into Ukraine and any continued aggression would be considered an attack on NATO (Similar to how Russia tried to claim and attack on Crimea was an attack on Russia except it based on reality).
Do you think Russia would continue to press that offensive knowing they stood no chance and the counter offensive they might be dealing with if they do?
Don't go all Yuffie on this saying we shouldn't because Russia is some unhinged beast that would rape and eat your children and then nuke you if you looked at them wrong for doing it.
Russia did this because they knew that NATO wouldn't do anything about it and one of the main reasons they didn't sooner was hoping for their employee Trump was going to withdraw the USA from NATO and potentially even get them to aid Russia the moment it bogged down.
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The whole point of NATO is that they don't want to be in that position where they have to respond.
If NATO was willing to do what your saying then they could just roll into Ukraine today, Zelensky will gladly have them, and accomplish the same thing without Ukraine needing formal membership.
This entire conflict is balancing around how involved, or not involved, NATO is willing to get and putting NATO troops in front of Russian guns is very clearly entirely out of the picture at this time.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Got to wonder if pootie has some compromat on Scholz - despite everyone, including members of his own government, telling him he should release the Leopards, he is insisting that the US send Abrams first. Despite how that would just complicate things for the Ukrainians even more.
But it looks like there is a bunch of new stuff going over - Canada is sending 200 more Senator armoured vehicles, the Swedes are said to be sending Archer SPGs and the US is reportedly working on another huge package for Rammstien, including Strykers and GLSDB's for the HIMARS, which will double their range.
Last edited by Corvus; 2023-01-18 at 10:23 PM.
I already said before how it was too late for NATO to do this as it would just come off as opportunistic and make NATO look worse. NATO would have needed to do it right as Russia started its offensive or warned what would happen.
If Russia was invading Ukraine for other reasons I can understand but that wasn't the case. It was quite literally Russia invading Ukraine due to Ukraine trying to join NATO to protect itself from Russian aggression.
It would be like if a group for abused women would only accept women who currently aren't being abused.
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it would not be surprising if Schol was in Putin's pocket. Just because Putin started this dubious war, we should not underestimate or forget the scope of his corrupting political influence across the world.
In fact, that's why it's shocking this is going so poorly. When he has that much money and has strings over almost every politician, you'd think that's what emboldened him to take Ukraine with ease; that the politicians and governments would turn a blind eye to a few objections. Instead, he's enraged the masses and the only minority is those in his pockets.
Last edited by YUPPIE; 2023-01-18 at 11:16 PM.
Well yes, but that doesn't change the fact accepting any member embroiled in a conflict with another nation means that Article 5 gets triggered as a direct follow up.
In other words, Nato would straight up vote on "Do you want to get involved with extra steps?" if a Nation like Ukraine applied for membership, which would obviously never ever get a unanimous yes vote outside of some extreme circumstance.
The way i see, it's mostly there to avoid unnecessary diplomatic issues because without that prequesite, a lot of nations would be interested in joining just to get Nato involved on their side, which would then have Nato explain why Nation X isn't allowed to join or go through that entire application process despite everyone knowing that Nato states will not let such a nation join.
Right now, they can point to that prequesite and close the case.
Nato Membership was off the table since 2014 anyway and i'm not sure whether pre 2014 Ukraine wanted to get into Nato or Nato states would've accepted Ukraine, considering they had their fair share corruption related issues.
Was there even a point in the last 30 years where Ukraine had the desire to join Nato *and* Nato states would've allowed Ukraine to join?
I doubt it, but if you expect decisive leadership from Scholz, you'll be in for a wait.
German position is to not deliver anything that the US hasn't delivered, they don't want to break with this, because they know Ukraine will be asking for more tomorrow (which they don't want because further escalation of conflict and that yadayada) + delivering German Tanks against Russia can also be seen as a propaganda win for Putin.
Last edited by Kralljin; 2023-01-18 at 11:32 PM.
I wouldn't go in directly guns blazing, I would spell it out to Russia that NATO is going in and whether it escalated beyond depends on him when they get there.
I am not saying to scrap the clause saying that applicants can not be engaged in a conflict to that it be modified to say that applicants can not be engaged in a conflict caused by reasons other than their application to NATO to head off stuff like this.
Quite literally:
Q: Are you in a conflict?
A: Yes.
Q: Is that conflict related to your application to NATO?
If yes: Then that conflict is not a disqualifying factor and the application continues otherwise, they are disqualified.
Making sure to inform the other nation that their conflict will not stop the process and if they are approved then NATO will be moving into the area and they will either withdraw or be considered to be attacking NATO as their attack was already an indirect attack on NATO.
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But its not about NATO. NATO wasn't a realistic soon(tm) future back in 2014 when this all started.
Its a war about a country that Russia considers to be in its area of influence seeking an approach to the West in general in order to improve its economic and democratic situation.
That is why this war exists, not because Russia fears NATO expansion, NATO is already on its border, but because they can't accept countries turning away from it.
NATO goes brought into it because, as Russia has shown both now and further in the past, you need protection if you want to leave the abuse ex that is Russia.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
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If that's the case, completely. The whole issue with me on the NATO application was the idea that them being invaded for joining should be a reason to forbid them from joining.
I haven't been following the ins and outs of the invasion to know a lot of the details, especially on the stuff that far back.
But yeah, if the conflict wasn't over them joining, then it should be disqualifying, if it was over their joining then it shouldn't be a strike against them.
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Russia did what it did largely because they saw the flaccid responses to Georgia and Crimea and probably expecting Germany to have their back by doing nothing and blocking everything. Scholz just had to follow the tide in the early days given his position does not seem particularly strong and the consensus in the rest of Europe plus the pressure from the US was too much.
Russia has been chipping away at them piece by piece for the last eight years in a frankly obvious attempt at conquest. "We don't want them to join NATO" is merely Putin's latest excuse now that's he's moved on from trying to take Ukraine a little bit at a time to trying to just take the whole thing all at once.
And, frankly, including "you can join if you're fighting because someone wants to keep you out of NATO" just means that the potential invader would make up some other excuse for the conflict.
Last edited by DarkTZeratul; 2023-01-19 at 12:10 AM.