Russian invasion of Ukraine

[zorkuus]

if there's something you have to admire the Russians for, it's their tenacity. Despite the abuse and overwhelming odds, they refuse to revolt and keep pushing forward.

Why would they revolt? Many of them still believe in the goal itself, despite the abuse.

[YUPPIE]

Why would they revolt?

because anyone sane would. Tenacity doesn't suggest intelligence or something positive.

[Iphie]

Why would they revolt? Many of them still believe in the goal itself, despite the abuse.

I kinda doubt that, but I do think the russian population is beaten into submission, and not yet at critical mass. I recently saw an analysis of how russian society works, and it made sense, 15-25% of the population is hardcore supporters of putin, 50-65% is de-politicized (meaning they don't want to bother with politics), and 20-25% are opposing putin in one way or another. It's that middle group that needs to be activated in order to dislodge putin or so they say.

Time will tell.

[YUPPIE]

can Russia hypothetically (I mean Turkey is NATO after all) take on Turkey in a conventional (no nukes, etc) military skirmish like they're engaging in with Ukraine?

I don't see the fact Turkey has stopped granting Russians residential permits as of today yet, but the Kremlin has vowed retaliation for this.

Russian citizens relocating to Turkey in recent weeks are being refused residence permits, independent Russian-language media outlet Current Time reported Monday.

Since December, Russian citizens who left Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and the military mobilization have been denied short-term residence permits for tourism in several cities, the report shows.

A short-term residence permit for tourism allows visitors to stay in Turkey for up to a year and to come and go freely. Russian citizens without residence permits are only permitted to stay in Turkey as tourists, which means a maximum stay of 60 consecutive days within six months, after which they are obliged to leave and re-enter Turkey.

[Iphie]

can Russia hypothetically (I mean Turkey is NATO after all) take on Turkey in a conventional (no nukes, etc) military skirmish like they're engaging in with Ukraine?

I don't see the fact Turkey has stopped granting Russians residential permits as of today yet, but the Kremlin has vowed retaliation for this.

Russian citizens relocating to Turkey in recent weeks are being refused residence permits, independent Russian-language media outlet Current Time reported Monday.

Since December, Russian citizens who left Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and the military mobilization have been denied short-term residence permits for tourism in several cities, the report shows.

A short-term residence permit for tourism allows visitors to stay in Turkey for up to a year and to come and go freely. Russian citizens without residence permits are only permitted to stay in Turkey as tourists, which means a maximum stay of 60 consecutive days within six months, after which they are obliged to leave and re-enter Turkey.

Right now? WHILE floundering in Ukraine? Not a chance.

Any other time? While not floundering in Ukraine? No chance.

[Elder Millennial]

can Russia hypothetically (I mean Turkey is NATO after all) take on Turkey in a conventional (no nukes, etc) military skirmish like they're engaging in with Ukraine?

No. No it can't.

I couldn't before Ukraine. Even less so now.

Turkey and Greece, despite both being NATO members, have been on semi war footing since the 1970s, so they have disproportionately oversized militaries. Not to mention, Turkey is a country of 85 million people.

If Russia can't deal with Ukraine, with half the population of Turkey, good luck taking on Turkey.

A bigger question is..."How does NATO get Turkey to stop being fucking dipshits and play ball on the Scandinavian expansion." Erdogan is really milking this whole situation for every cent worth of international attention by being a pain in the ass.

[Santti]

can Russia hypothetically (I mean Turkey is NATO after all) take on Turkey in a conventional (no nukes, etc) military skirmish like they're engaging in with Ukraine?

Sigh, no. Obviously not.

[Nymrohd]

can Russia hypothetically (I mean Turkey is NATO after all) take on Turkey in a conventional (no nukes, etc) military skirmish like they're engaging in with Ukraine?

I don't see the fact Turkey has stopped granting Russians residential permits as of today yet, but the Kremlin has vowed retaliation for this.

Russian citizens relocating to Turkey in recent weeks are being refused residence permits, independent Russian-language media outlet Current Time reported Monday.

Since December, Russian citizens who left Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and the military mobilization have been denied short-term residence permits for tourism in several cities, the report shows.

A short-term residence permit for tourism allows visitors to stay in Turkey for up to a year and to come and go freely. Russian citizens without residence permits are only permitted to stay in Turkey as tourists, which means a maximum stay of 60 consecutive days within six months, after which they are obliged to leave and re-enter Turkey.

Turkey has a significant military that is also fairly active and thus experienced. Russia would at best be able to stalemate with them even without support from the rest of NATO and they almost assuredly would get support from all of us against Russia.

[Logwyn]

can Russia hypothetically (I mean Turkey is NATO after all) take on Turkey in a conventional (no nukes, etc) military skirmish like they're engaging in with Ukraine?

Russia would have to go through Georgia/Armenia or Romania/Bulgaria to go straight land war without having to ship troops through the Black Sea for an amphibious landing in Turkey. I doubt any of the above would agree to let Russia do this. I doubt that Russia could create a bridge head then control a port then keep it repaired for anything else.

So maybe not at this point. That's throwing out the NATO factor. Then they are getting smacked around by NATO as well.

SO Hard NO.

[Gabriel]

A bigger question is..."How does NATO get Turkey to stop being fucking dipshits and play ball on the Scandinavian expansion." Erdogan is really milking this whole situation for every cent worth of international attention by being a pain in the ass.

There is no way to please Erdogan, that doesn't involve selling your soul, so fuck it.

[Corvus]

Turkey has a really big military. While it may not be as professional as most European ones and have issues with political appointments by Erdogan, it's still superior to the russian rabble. Plus it has modern western equipment that Ukraine doesn't.

- - - Updated - - -

Poland says they have officially asked Germany for a re-export licence to send Leopards to Ukraine.

Only question now is how long Scholz takes to come to a decision.

[Lahis]

A bigger question is..."How does NATO get Turkey to stop being fucking dipshits and play ball on the Scandinavian expansion." Erdogan is really milking this whole situation for every cent worth of international attention by being a pain in the ass.

Turkey is just half of the problem. Hungary is still really butthurt towards Finland since the latter dared to criticize their dictator's distaste for human rights.

[Iphie]

Turkey is just half of the problem. Hungary is still really butthurt towards Finland since the latter dared to criticize their dictator's distaste for human rights.

Myeah, but Hungary promised to ratify next month so we'll see how that pans out.

[Lahis]

Myeah, but Hungary promised to ratify next month so we'll see how that pans out.

They have promised to ratify it next month since August.

[Iphie]

This Reddit post (Reddit itself is not a source, btw, always link to the actual article) has been removed for whatever reason. Just FYI.

Here's the link he took from my post a bit up:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...norwegian-army

[YUPPIE]

Remember when Putin screamed it was time for a new world order? Well, South Africa has sworn allegiance to that in a departure from its previous claims

On the first day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the South African government demanded an immediate Russian withdrawal. It warned that the Russian military action would cause “human suffering and destruction” and huge damage to the global economy. But since then, South Africa has refused to repeat this criticism, instead choosing to abstain in UN votes, while calling for dialogue and negotiations.

On Monday, when asked whether she had repeated any of her original criticism to the Russian foreign minister, Ms. Pandor said she would seem “quite simplistic and infantile” if she did so – “given the massive transfer of arms” to Ukraine from its allies.

She said her talks with Mr. Lavrov were “wonderful” and she described South Africa as a friend of Russia with a strengthening relationship. Mr. Lavrov, for his part, had only praise for South Africa and its stand on global issues.

Funny how this comes on the heels of their veiled threat to Turkey and you people being so adamant that they would be crushed like insects. Now they have South Africa to potentially bolster their numbers and resources. Although, to be fair, months ago I did list South Africa as one of Russia's "new world order" allies next to Iran and NK even though that was when it felt like Africa was more coerced into an alliance than agreeing to it.

[Secret Arcade]

Seems Germany finally decided not only to allow others to send Leopard 2s but to send some of their own too.

Reuters

[Saradain]

Oh no, whatever will we do, if african nations are dumb enough to think Russia is a friend, not an exploiter. With South Africa, Russia will surely be unstoppable...

Meanwhile in reality:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...el-2023-01-24/

Germany to send Leopard tanks to Kyiv, allow others to do so

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has decided to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and allow other countries such as Poland to do so while the U.S. may supply Abrams tanks, magazine Spiegel reported on Tuesday.

Your move, Putin.

[YUPPIE]

The state of Africa is polarizing since Morocco also sent tanks to Ukraine instead

Also, the news of Scholz giving in is a huge fucking deal, especially after his reluctance and the Kremlin openly threatening Germany over the tanks. I will be vigilant in seeing what their response is, unless they already have made a statement/vow.

[jonnysensible]

The state of Africa is polarizing since Morocco also sent tanks to Ukraine instead

Also, the news of Scholz giving in is a huge fucking deal, especially after his reluctance and the Kremlin openly threatening Germany over the tanks. I will be vigilant in seeing what their response is, unless they already have made a statement/vow.

do you mean continent of Africa?

its literally morocco not really polarizing is it.

Good that the Germans are done talking themselves into doing the right thing. Putin will do fuck all hes pulled all of his levers already.