Russian invasion of Ukraine

[YUPPIE]

The Prig and the Wankers have failed to take Bakhmut like they were meant to and have lost 80% of their convict troops. They have been neutered and are on the outer with Putin as a result.

for context on what this poster is claiming, though in a foreign language: reportedly, Wagner lose 980 of its 1000 troops recently in Bakhmut.

Though I think the African alliance may help replenish their numbers.

[Corvus]

for context on what this poster is claiming, though in a foreign language: reportedly, Wagner lose 980 of its 1000 troops recently in Bakhmut.

Though I think the African alliance may help replenish their numbers.

The numbers being spoken of are 40,000 out of the 50,000 convicts gone. With no ready source of replacement. Which means the russian army is going to have to move troops to where the Wankers are or risk a collapse of that sector.

And there is no African alliance. There have been rumours of large numbers of Iranians, Syrians, North Koreans and Africans going to fight for russia but it never pans out. There have been a couple of Africans, but they were students in russia who were imprisoned and got volunteered to fight for the Wankers, but that was it. Everyone knows that fighting for the Wankers is a death sentence.

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how useful are f16's tho?

both sides arent using airpower for much more than long range missile fire because of the risk of being shot down.

The F16s would be better than most of the equipment they are using, and they do need replacements. They have taken losses and there aren't really parts or replacements of soviet origin. So switching over to western aircraft makes sense. Gives them access to superior western avionics and access to western munitions, like the JDAMs.

With Ukraine getting Leopards and probably Abrams, its worth looking at what the russians are receiving, besides old T62. The russian MoD has been boasting of supplying new T90Ms to the troops. Except people have been pointing out some issues with the photos. Firstly, they are being equipped with really old ERA that was obsolete in the mid 80s and is now 3 generations out of date. And they are being equipped with thermal imaging that was designed for the T62 and russian sources are complaining that they are useless except at close range. They are going to be blind a night against Western tanks. Yeah, those sanctions are really biting when it comes to producing more modern gear.

[YUPPIE]

The numbers being spoken of are 40,000 out of the 50,000 convicts gone.

Sounds worse than the estimate I linked then.

But still, Putin believes he will win. Guaranteed even.

[DarkTZeratul]

But still, Putin believes he will win. Guaranteed even.

Of course. The moment he says otherwise, it's all over for him.

[YUPPIE]

The moment he says otherwise, it's all over for him.

yeah and that's why he will take this all the way to the end and never voluntarily give up. The only way it will most likely end is if he dies or illness or someone kills him; neither of which is very likely.

There's no place on the planet Putin can escape to if he surrenders or withdraws, contrary to people thinking he can still comfily retire.

[Iphie]

yeah and that's why he will take this all the way to the end and never voluntarily give up. The only way it will most likely end is if he dies or illness or someone kills him; neither of which is very likely.

There's no place on the planet Putin can escape to if he surrenders or withdraws, contrary to people thinking he can still comfily retire.

He can pull a Lenin: have a few strokes that leave him incapacitated, or appoint a successor in exchange for immunity. What he can't pull is a Khrushchev: be deposed without being killed. As far as how likely it is: there are teeny, tiny cracks to be seen, nothing major but a remark here, a statement there.

Prigozhin is no longer in a good position to threaten putin's power, due to catastrophic losses in Bakhmut and the internal power struggle between him and Kadyrov on the one side and Shoigu and Gerasimov on the other side, unless Wagner abandons their African adventures.

[YUPPIE]

He can pull a Lenin: have a few strokes that leave him incapacitated, or appoint a successor in exchange for immunity. What he can't pull is a Khrushchev: be deposed without being killed. As far as how likely it is: there are teeny, tiny cracks to be seen, nothing major but a remark here, a statement there.

Prigozhin is no longer in a good position to threaten putin's power, due to catastrophic losses in Bakhmut and the internal power struggle between him and Kadyrov on the one side and Shoigu and Gerasimov on the other side, unless Wagner abandons their African adventures.

isn't it still awful to be speculating over the likelihood of someone being killed/dying and being hopeful it happens? When I was a wee lass, they told you no one deserves to die, but here we are contemplating.

It's all messed up. This war has eroded morality.

[alach]

This hard pushing for tanks reminds me a little bit of when the war began and you didnt hear a ukraine official have an interview without saying the phrase "close the skies or they all die.' That just faded away without Nato imposing a no-fly zone, right? I'm pretty sure it was because the Americans donated enough anti air they werent worried about the russian airforce.
The US has the best strategists and analysts in the world, if they say the Abrams arent going to be effective, I think everyone should believe them, especially the media who seems to not be able to go a segment without asking about the lack of tanks. I am posisitive the militaries of the western world are watching almost all of this conflict in real time, and know what is needed. They know enough Bradleys will run through the russian lines, and that the Madars and AMXs will quickly destroy the russian artillery.
This is why Kirby is always saying, we give the ukrainians what they need.
Seems my post is a little late, they are getting the tanks, but my point stands.

[DarkTZeratul]

yeah and that's why he will take this all the way to the end and never voluntarily give up. The only way it will most likely end is if he dies or illness or someone kills him; neither of which is very likely.

There's no place on the planet Putin can escape to if he surrenders or withdraws, contrary to people thinking he can still comfily retire.

He can always withdraw and spout some bullshit about having "achieved their objectives" to save face with his people. But at this point it's clearly hopeless and the longer it goes on the worse it will be for him.

[Kallisto]

He can always withdraw and spout some bullshit about having "achieved their objectives" to save face with his people. But at this point it's clearly hopeless and the longer it goes on the worse it will be for him.

He's also set everything up so he doesn't get the blame. Everything Putin says is "underling x says y so with great pains I won't deny him." more or less so if anything goes wrong there's enough scapegoats who are fighting each other already there to take the blame.

[zealo]

I'm wondering what Russia's response to this will be

Step 1: Get angry
Step 2: Claim Russian weapon systems are better anyway than what the west is giving Ukraine.
Step 3: Claim to have destroyed vast numbers of them before they're even delivered
Step 4: Threaten nuclear strikes yet again in a hollow threat as these things are tearing Russian vatniks a new bumhole.

That and they'll likely throw more tantrums bombing more civilians like the terrorists they are.

[Hansworst]

isn't it still awful to be speculating over the likelihood of someone being killed/dying and being hopeful it happens? When I was a wee lass, they told you no one deserves to die, but here we are contemplating.

It's all messed up. This war has eroded morality.

Lol, you have been doing this since the first page of this thread.

[YUPPIE]

Step 1: Get angry
Step 2: Claim Russian weapon systems are better anyway than what the west is giving Ukraine.
Step 3: Claim to have destroyed vast numbers of them before they're even delivered
Step 4: Threaten nuclear strikes yet again in a hollow threat as these things are tearing Russian vatniks a new bumhole.

That and they'll likely throw more tantrums bombing more civilians like the terrorists they are.

It's just tiresome at this point given how much we've been through this.

Also on 4: Early on, I thought Russia would genuinely use nukes to get their way. But the West has crossed so many red lines by this point that it's hard to take seriously. All that's left to speculate on is what they feel will threaten their sovereignty for real because losing massive ground in Ukraine doesn't seem to be that line.

[Calfredd]

Lol, you have been doing this since the first page of this thread.

Pfft. Even before that. He has been saying things about China and Kim Jong-un and North Korea before that! I might get infracted for this but the way he talks about this stuff sounds like he gets excited by this stuff if not sexually aroused.

[YUPPIE]

Pfft. Even before that. He has been saying things about China and Kim Jong-un and North Korea.

While China is its own topic since they're rather hands-off in this war, North Korea is a major player in the Ukrainian conflict.

[Flarelaine]

He can pull a Lenin: have a few strokes that leave him incapacitated, or appoint a successor in exchange for immunity.

The latter would be a Yeltsin, I guess, but it would be much harder right now. When Yeltsin passed the buck Russia was nowhere near in this much trouble and the then new guy (Putin) was very much set up as the one taking care of that trouble. He had been for over a year by the time he took over. I don't see anyone being groomed for succession right now.

[Iphie]

The latter would be a Yeltsin, I guess, but it would be much harder right now. When Yeltsin passed the buck Russia was nowhere near in this much trouble and the then new guy (Putin) was very much set up as the one taking care of that trouble. He had been for over a year by the time he took over. I don't see anyone being groomed for succession right now.

You're right, no one obvious in any case, which is a common problem for autocrats: anyone being groomed has a big target painted on them for others hoping to get the top spot, or the "incumbent" risks that the heir apparent accumulates too much early support and will supplant them.

Indeed the current power struggle that can be seen between the Prigozhin faction and the, for lack of a better term, "Imperial Army" faction can be ascribed to exactly that issue and might even indicate an imminent change in power structures. X-factors do include Medvedev and Patrushin who seem, publicly, hardliners but the question is always how much of that is posture so they won't get defenestrated, same with Lavrov who, by all accounts, has been trying to get out for a long while now.

There are also other factions in play obviously, not in the least the more dovish and liberal factions, but those are currently not in favour.

Still a Yeltsin is not impossible even if it is improbable.

A Khrushchev is out of the question, if he goes on holiday he should plan on not returning because if he goes on holiday for five months he'll not survive the return.

[Elder Millennial]

Here's the thing I don't get.

If I were Russian, living in Russia, planning on staying in Russia, and maybe even be a bit patriotic or whatnot I would have a few questions.

Question number 1: Let's say Ukraine is ground down to the point of accepting territorial concessions. Let's say Russia gets to keep everything it currently holds, maybe even more. OK. Russia wins. Now what?

NATO expanded and the other Eastern European nations just armed themselves to the teeth. Most of our immediate European neighbors have shut their borders and nobody is willing to buy or sell anything from or to us and half the national reserves of Russia are now frozen in western banks for the foreseeable future and we're back on the top of America's shit list.

On top of that, our central Asian hostages seems to have used to distraction to slip out of our sphere of influence and into that of China or Turkey.

Question 2. I'm a "good Russian patriot" and I vote exactly as "my" president Putin tells me to. If Putin dies without telling me who to vote for, what will I do? Or I am a politically passive sheep Russian, what will become of me without Putin making decisions for me? Who will make decisions for me then?

At least in North Korea they have their dynasty and in China they have The Party and the head honchos will appoint someone. Russia seems to have the same political structure as Nazi Germany. Putler on top, being the very incarnation of the state, with a bunch of loons orbiting around him and competing with each other for Senpai's attention but with no ability to lead or clear path to succeeding him.

In Russia today there seems to be no plan for anything beyond extremely short term immediate ideological objectives or Putin's whims.

[Gabriel]

Here's the thing I don't get.

If I were Russian, living in Russia, planning on staying in Russia, and maybe even be a bit patriotic or whatnot I would have a few questions.

Question number 1: Let's say Ukraine is ground down to the point of accepting territorial concessions. Let's say Russia gets to keep everything it currently holds, maybe even more. OK. Russia wins. Now what?

Putin will tell you what to think.

Question 2. I'm a "good Russian patriot" and I vote exactly as "my" president Putin tells me to. If Putin dies without telling me who to vote for, what will I do? Or I am a politically passive sheep Russian, what will become of me without Putin making decisions for me? Who will make decisions for me then?

You will choose to follow the next strongman that promises to make russia great again and your enemies fear you.

[Corvus]

Generations of russians have been taught that thinking is hazardous to their health so they largely don't anymore.