Russian invasion of Ukraine

[YUPPIE]

Step 1: Get angry
Step 2: Claim Russian weapon systems are better anyway than what the west is giving Ukraine.
Step 3: Claim to have destroyed vast numbers of them before they're even delivered
Step 4: Threaten nuclear strikes yet again in a hollow threat as these things are tearing Russian vatniks a new bumhole.

That and they'll likely throw more tantrums bombing more civilians like the terrorists they are.

It's just tiresome at this point given how much we've been through this.

Also on 4: Early on, I thought Russia would genuinely use nukes to get their way. But the West has crossed so many red lines by this point that it's hard to take seriously. All that's left to speculate on is what they feel will threaten their sovereignty for real because losing massive ground in Ukraine doesn't seem to be that line.

[Calfredd]

Lol, you have been doing this since the first page of this thread.

Pfft. Even before that. He has been saying things about China and Kim Jong-un and North Korea before that! I might get infracted for this but the way he talks about this stuff sounds like he gets excited by this stuff if not sexually aroused.

[YUPPIE]

Pfft. Even before that. He has been saying things about China and Kim Jong-un and North Korea.

While China is its own topic since they're rather hands-off in this war, North Korea is a major player in the Ukrainian conflict.

[Flarelaine]

He can pull a Lenin: have a few strokes that leave him incapacitated, or appoint a successor in exchange for immunity.

The latter would be a Yeltsin, I guess, but it would be much harder right now. When Yeltsin passed the buck Russia was nowhere near in this much trouble and the then new guy (Putin) was very much set up as the one taking care of that trouble. He had been for over a year by the time he took over. I don't see anyone being groomed for succession right now.

[Iphie]

The latter would be a Yeltsin, I guess, but it would be much harder right now. When Yeltsin passed the buck Russia was nowhere near in this much trouble and the then new guy (Putin) was very much set up as the one taking care of that trouble. He had been for over a year by the time he took over. I don't see anyone being groomed for succession right now.

You're right, no one obvious in any case, which is a common problem for autocrats: anyone being groomed has a big target painted on them for others hoping to get the top spot, or the "incumbent" risks that the heir apparent accumulates too much early support and will supplant them.

Indeed the current power struggle that can be seen between the Prigozhin faction and the, for lack of a better term, "Imperial Army" faction can be ascribed to exactly that issue and might even indicate an imminent change in power structures. X-factors do include Medvedev and Patrushin who seem, publicly, hardliners but the question is always how much of that is posture so they won't get defenestrated, same with Lavrov who, by all accounts, has been trying to get out for a long while now.

There are also other factions in play obviously, not in the least the more dovish and liberal factions, but those are currently not in favour.

Still a Yeltsin is not impossible even if it is improbable.

A Khrushchev is out of the question, if he goes on holiday he should plan on not returning because if he goes on holiday for five months he'll not survive the return.

[Elder Millennial]

Here's the thing I don't get.

If I were Russian, living in Russia, planning on staying in Russia, and maybe even be a bit patriotic or whatnot I would have a few questions.

Question number 1: Let's say Ukraine is ground down to the point of accepting territorial concessions. Let's say Russia gets to keep everything it currently holds, maybe even more. OK. Russia wins. Now what?

NATO expanded and the other Eastern European nations just armed themselves to the teeth. Most of our immediate European neighbors have shut their borders and nobody is willing to buy or sell anything from or to us and half the national reserves of Russia are now frozen in western banks for the foreseeable future and we're back on the top of America's shit list.

On top of that, our central Asian hostages seems to have used to distraction to slip out of our sphere of influence and into that of China or Turkey.

Question 2. I'm a "good Russian patriot" and I vote exactly as "my" president Putin tells me to. If Putin dies without telling me who to vote for, what will I do? Or I am a politically passive sheep Russian, what will become of me without Putin making decisions for me? Who will make decisions for me then?

At least in North Korea they have their dynasty and in China they have The Party and the head honchos will appoint someone. Russia seems to have the same political structure as Nazi Germany. Putler on top, being the very incarnation of the state, with a bunch of loons orbiting around him and competing with each other for Senpai's attention but with no ability to lead or clear path to succeeding him.

In Russia today there seems to be no plan for anything beyond extremely short term immediate ideological objectives or Putin's whims.

[Gabriel]

Here's the thing I don't get.

If I were Russian, living in Russia, planning on staying in Russia, and maybe even be a bit patriotic or whatnot I would have a few questions.

Question number 1: Let's say Ukraine is ground down to the point of accepting territorial concessions. Let's say Russia gets to keep everything it currently holds, maybe even more. OK. Russia wins. Now what?

Putin will tell you what to think.

Question 2. I'm a "good Russian patriot" and I vote exactly as "my" president Putin tells me to. If Putin dies without telling me who to vote for, what will I do? Or I am a politically passive sheep Russian, what will become of me without Putin making decisions for me? Who will make decisions for me then?

You will choose to follow the next strongman that promises to make russia great again and your enemies fear you.

[Corvus]

Generations of russians have been taught that thinking is hazardous to their health so they largely don't anymore.

[Shadowferal]

Putin will tell you what to think.

This.
I don't believe the average Russian has access to news and information that contradicts the state.

[Iphie]

Generations of russians have been taught that thinking is hazardous to their health so they largely don't anymore.

I recently read a take on that, during the Stalin years anyone who had two brain cells to rub together sooner or later found themselves in the Gulag or simply dead, and that had a very detrimental effect on the gene pool, the 27 million dead from WWII didn't help either, then the brain drain during the Cold War and the following years leaving almost literally no-one who has great intelligence and I have to admit that sounds very plausible.

[Gabriel]

This.
I don't believe the average Russian has access to news and information that contradicts the state.

They are not stupid. They know full well they are being lied to by their government, but hundreds of years of the government killing all the people capable of individual thinking, or not being able to hide their individual thinking, has taught them to shut up and just "baa baa" with the other sheep.

[Muzjhath]

Wagner is aware of its identity and relationship with the US (that is, one of mortal enemies; they even fought I reckon) so to send a letter to the White House to begin with, and in a subdued tone, is pretty ominous to me.

Also, doesn't the US have security for letting such mails pass through read to begin with, considering the spree of mail bombings related to Russia that was headlined recently?

To me it sounds petulant

- - - Updated - - -

The latter part of the West cowing down aside, that's LITERALLY what Russia is right now. Perfect description, though I don't think Russia will stop at just Ukraine should they get what they want.

So why should everyone not Russia ever let them get what they want?

[Corvus]

Germany has announced they are sending 14 leopards, or one company, which will form part of 2 battalions (88 tanks) to be provided by European nations.

[zealo]

Here's the thing I don't get.

If I were Russian, living in Russia, planning on staying in Russia, and maybe even be a bit patriotic or whatnot I would have a few questions.

Question number 1: Let's say Ukraine is ground down to the point of accepting territorial concessions. Let's say Russia gets to keep everything it currently holds, maybe even more. OK. Russia wins. Now what?

NATO expanded and the other Eastern European nations just armed themselves to the teeth. Most of our immediate European neighbors have shut their borders and nobody is willing to buy or sell anything from or to us and half the national reserves of Russia are now frozen in western banks for the foreseeable future and we're back on the top of America's shit list.

On top of that, our central Asian hostages seems to have used to distraction to slip out of our sphere of influence and into that of China or Turkey.

Question 2. I'm a "good Russian patriot" and I vote exactly as "my" president Putin tells me to. If Putin dies without telling me who to vote for, what will I do? Or I am a politically passive sheep Russian, what will become of me without Putin making decisions for me? Who will make decisions for me then?

At least in North Korea they have their dynasty and in China they have The Party and the head honchos will appoint someone. Russia seems to have the same political structure as Nazi Germany. Putler on top, being the very incarnation of the state, with a bunch of loons orbiting around him and competing with each other for Senpai's attention but with no ability to lead or clear path to succeeding him.

In Russia today there seems to be no plan for anything beyond extremely short term immediate ideological objectives or Putin's whims.

Thing is, even if they have those questions, the vast majority of them won't resort to openly questioning their government even as the long term prospects of their country is on a one way ticket to hell.

Russia's future is grim and will remain so until they find it in them to be deeply and openly critical of what is going on in a fashion that also embraces that Russia and the Russian people are responsible for it all. Needless to say, that's not a day coming any time soon, to put it mildly.

[Darsithis]

Germany is sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and allowing export from allied countries:

https://www.npr.org/2023/01/25/11507...-tanks-ukraine

The U.S is sending Abrams, and who knows who else will export now.

[Biglog]

On the Russian populous, last week Russia placed a prison bus next to a memorial for the Dnipro apartment building victims and threatened to put anyone that laid flowers there directly on the bus. Russians that have posted on social media questioning the war get knocks on their door and are arrested. Combine threats with pervasive state propaganda and you have a compliant population.

As for the tanks, they'll help although Ukraine needs C-UAS maybe even more. The war is well past diplomacy or just asking Russia to leave Ukraine. Conservatives prior to WW2 were isolationist too using some of the same excuses as today about the cost and not wanting to get involved, and they were proven horribly wrong. That's precisely why the US didn't enter the war until Pearl Harbor, when the politicians that opposed entering the war realized the true cost. It's the old those that fail to learn from history repeat it. So when there is an expansionist adversary has is actively attempting to overrun Ukraine and has openly admitted wanting to do the same to several sovereign NATO countries if/when successful in Ukraine and saying it is 'at war with the West', it would be incomprehensible to do nothing.

[Airlick]

It's just tiresome at this point given how much we've been through this.

Also on 4: Early on, I thought Russia would genuinely use nukes to get their way. But the West has crossed so many red lines by this point that it's hard to take seriously. All that's left to speculate on is what they feel will threaten their sovereignty for real because losing massive ground in Ukraine doesn't seem to be that line.

Best they can do is nuke their own minority territories when they inevitably try to break off. Not like they'll have soldiers to deal with it conventionally. That's really the only threat to Russia's sovereignty, I don't think USA or Germany even want Russia to fall apart, though for different reasons.

[YUPPIE]

I don't think USA or Germany even want Russia to fall apart, though for different reasons.

does it have anything to do with when Henry Kissinger said Russia is an integral part of the balance of world order, or no

[Airlick]

does it have anything to do with when Henry Kissinger said Russia is an integral part of the balance of world order, or no

Nah. Germany would like nothing better than to keep the status quo and keep buying cheap gas, and Russia falling apart may lead to huge issues with the supply chains of Russian resources. Obviously they can't buy the resources with the war going on, but they may not be able to buy them ever again if Russia falls and turns into Africa 2.0. So the best case scenario for Germany (or at least it seems that's what they are thinking) is ending the war ASAP with a change in Russian leadership, but also letting them save some face.

For USA, it's because of China. China already has huge influence over Russia that will only grow as the West continues to isolate it, but actually breaking Russia's back means it will fall right into China's grasp. If Russia even survived, it would be a glorified vassal to China as opposed to being a player in its own rights (though we already know Russia isn't a first rate player, but it sees itself as such). If it doesn't survive, Siberia will basically be up for grabs and you can be certain China will be there first. They are already there, actually. So if Russia falls apart, you're counting on a small possibility that USA and EU can actually get the new states into their own sphere of influence rather than letting them fall to China.

So there's a lot to lose for the West if Ukraine wins. Obviously from moral standpoint Ukraine has to be supported as much as possible and Russia has to be punished hard, but that's not what politics is about. Just beating Russia isn't hard, either, we all knew it has 0 chance against NATO before the war. The issue is whether Russia can be beat without benefitting China too much, or if there's even a realistic scenario in which China isn't the biggest winner. Point being, at this point Russia isn't really a subject in the eyes of either USA or China, but it's one of the most important objects and possibly one that will decide the power struggle between them in the long run.

[Deus Mortis]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rev...ne-2023-01-25/
In change of course, U.S. agrees to send 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine

WASHINGTON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The United States announced on Wednesday it will supply Ukraine with 31 advanced M1 Abrams tanks worth $400 million in a matter of months, a decision that helped break a diplomatic logjam with Germany over how best to help Kyiv in its war against Russia.

President Joe Biden announced the decision at the White House, saying the tanks are needed to help the Ukrainians "improve their ability to maneuver in open terrain."

Biden thanked Germany for its decision to supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks, and listed the other on-the-ground military hardware other NATO allies and other European countries were supplying. "Germany has really stepped up," he said.

Great news, hopefully this means all the logistics of keeping these tanks going has been worked out, and it is a nice stepping stone to get even more in the future. We have over 3,000 alone just sitting in storage so this won't make a dent in our stockpiles.