Russian invasion of Ukraine

[DarkTZeratul]

yeah and that's why he will take this all the way to the end and never voluntarily give up. The only way it will most likely end is if he dies or illness or someone kills him; neither of which is very likely.

There's no place on the planet Putin can escape to if he surrenders or withdraws, contrary to people thinking he can still comfily retire.

He can always withdraw and spout some bullshit about having "achieved their objectives" to save face with his people. But at this point it's clearly hopeless and the longer it goes on the worse it will be for him.

[Kallisto]

He can always withdraw and spout some bullshit about having "achieved their objectives" to save face with his people. But at this point it's clearly hopeless and the longer it goes on the worse it will be for him.

He's also set everything up so he doesn't get the blame. Everything Putin says is "underling x says y so with great pains I won't deny him." more or less so if anything goes wrong there's enough scapegoats who are fighting each other already there to take the blame.

[zealo]

I'm wondering what Russia's response to this will be

Step 1: Get angry
Step 2: Claim Russian weapon systems are better anyway than what the west is giving Ukraine.
Step 3: Claim to have destroyed vast numbers of them before they're even delivered
Step 4: Threaten nuclear strikes yet again in a hollow threat as these things are tearing Russian vatniks a new bumhole.

That and they'll likely throw more tantrums bombing more civilians like the terrorists they are.

[Hansworst]

isn't it still awful to be speculating over the likelihood of someone being killed/dying and being hopeful it happens? When I was a wee lass, they told you no one deserves to die, but here we are contemplating.

It's all messed up. This war has eroded morality.

Lol, you have been doing this since the first page of this thread.

[YUPPIE]

Step 1: Get angry
Step 2: Claim Russian weapon systems are better anyway than what the west is giving Ukraine.
Step 3: Claim to have destroyed vast numbers of them before they're even delivered
Step 4: Threaten nuclear strikes yet again in a hollow threat as these things are tearing Russian vatniks a new bumhole.

That and they'll likely throw more tantrums bombing more civilians like the terrorists they are.

It's just tiresome at this point given how much we've been through this.

Also on 4: Early on, I thought Russia would genuinely use nukes to get their way. But the West has crossed so many red lines by this point that it's hard to take seriously. All that's left to speculate on is what they feel will threaten their sovereignty for real because losing massive ground in Ukraine doesn't seem to be that line.

[Calfredd]

Lol, you have been doing this since the first page of this thread.

Pfft. Even before that. He has been saying things about China and Kim Jong-un and North Korea before that! I might get infracted for this but the way he talks about this stuff sounds like he gets excited by this stuff if not sexually aroused.

[YUPPIE]

Pfft. Even before that. He has been saying things about China and Kim Jong-un and North Korea.

While China is its own topic since they're rather hands-off in this war, North Korea is a major player in the Ukrainian conflict.

[Flarelaine]

He can pull a Lenin: have a few strokes that leave him incapacitated, or appoint a successor in exchange for immunity.

The latter would be a Yeltsin, I guess, but it would be much harder right now. When Yeltsin passed the buck Russia was nowhere near in this much trouble and the then new guy (Putin) was very much set up as the one taking care of that trouble. He had been for over a year by the time he took over. I don't see anyone being groomed for succession right now.

[Iphie]

The latter would be a Yeltsin, I guess, but it would be much harder right now. When Yeltsin passed the buck Russia was nowhere near in this much trouble and the then new guy (Putin) was very much set up as the one taking care of that trouble. He had been for over a year by the time he took over. I don't see anyone being groomed for succession right now.

You're right, no one obvious in any case, which is a common problem for autocrats: anyone being groomed has a big target painted on them for others hoping to get the top spot, or the "incumbent" risks that the heir apparent accumulates too much early support and will supplant them.

Indeed the current power struggle that can be seen between the Prigozhin faction and the, for lack of a better term, "Imperial Army" faction can be ascribed to exactly that issue and might even indicate an imminent change in power structures. X-factors do include Medvedev and Patrushin who seem, publicly, hardliners but the question is always how much of that is posture so they won't get defenestrated, same with Lavrov who, by all accounts, has been trying to get out for a long while now.

There are also other factions in play obviously, not in the least the more dovish and liberal factions, but those are currently not in favour.

Still a Yeltsin is not impossible even if it is improbable.

A Khrushchev is out of the question, if he goes on holiday he should plan on not returning because if he goes on holiday for five months he'll not survive the return.

[Elder Millennial]

Here's the thing I don't get.

If I were Russian, living in Russia, planning on staying in Russia, and maybe even be a bit patriotic or whatnot I would have a few questions.

Question number 1: Let's say Ukraine is ground down to the point of accepting territorial concessions. Let's say Russia gets to keep everything it currently holds, maybe even more. OK. Russia wins. Now what?

NATO expanded and the other Eastern European nations just armed themselves to the teeth. Most of our immediate European neighbors have shut their borders and nobody is willing to buy or sell anything from or to us and half the national reserves of Russia are now frozen in western banks for the foreseeable future and we're back on the top of America's shit list.

On top of that, our central Asian hostages seems to have used to distraction to slip out of our sphere of influence and into that of China or Turkey.

Question 2. I'm a "good Russian patriot" and I vote exactly as "my" president Putin tells me to. If Putin dies without telling me who to vote for, what will I do? Or I am a politically passive sheep Russian, what will become of me without Putin making decisions for me? Who will make decisions for me then?

At least in North Korea they have their dynasty and in China they have The Party and the head honchos will appoint someone. Russia seems to have the same political structure as Nazi Germany. Putler on top, being the very incarnation of the state, with a bunch of loons orbiting around him and competing with each other for Senpai's attention but with no ability to lead or clear path to succeeding him.

In Russia today there seems to be no plan for anything beyond extremely short term immediate ideological objectives or Putin's whims.

[Gabriel]

Here's the thing I don't get.

If I were Russian, living in Russia, planning on staying in Russia, and maybe even be a bit patriotic or whatnot I would have a few questions.

Question number 1: Let's say Ukraine is ground down to the point of accepting territorial concessions. Let's say Russia gets to keep everything it currently holds, maybe even more. OK. Russia wins. Now what?

Putin will tell you what to think.

Question 2. I'm a "good Russian patriot" and I vote exactly as "my" president Putin tells me to. If Putin dies without telling me who to vote for, what will I do? Or I am a politically passive sheep Russian, what will become of me without Putin making decisions for me? Who will make decisions for me then?

You will choose to follow the next strongman that promises to make russia great again and your enemies fear you.

[Corvus]

Generations of russians have been taught that thinking is hazardous to their health so they largely don't anymore.

[Shadowferal]

Putin will tell you what to think.

This.
I don't believe the average Russian has access to news and information that contradicts the state.

[Iphie]

Generations of russians have been taught that thinking is hazardous to their health so they largely don't anymore.

I recently read a take on that, during the Stalin years anyone who had two brain cells to rub together sooner or later found themselves in the Gulag or simply dead, and that had a very detrimental effect on the gene pool, the 27 million dead from WWII didn't help either, then the brain drain during the Cold War and the following years leaving almost literally no-one who has great intelligence and I have to admit that sounds very plausible.

[Gabriel]

This.
I don't believe the average Russian has access to news and information that contradicts the state.

They are not stupid. They know full well they are being lied to by their government, but hundreds of years of the government killing all the people capable of individual thinking, or not being able to hide their individual thinking, has taught them to shut up and just "baa baa" with the other sheep.

[Muzjhath]

Wagner is aware of its identity and relationship with the US (that is, one of mortal enemies; they even fought I reckon) so to send a letter to the White House to begin with, and in a subdued tone, is pretty ominous to me.

Also, doesn't the US have security for letting such mails pass through read to begin with, considering the spree of mail bombings related to Russia that was headlined recently?

To me it sounds petulant

- - - Updated - - -

The latter part of the West cowing down aside, that's LITERALLY what Russia is right now. Perfect description, though I don't think Russia will stop at just Ukraine should they get what they want.

So why should everyone not Russia ever let them get what they want?

[Corvus]

Germany has announced they are sending 14 leopards, or one company, which will form part of 2 battalions (88 tanks) to be provided by European nations.

[zealo]

Here's the thing I don't get.

If I were Russian, living in Russia, planning on staying in Russia, and maybe even be a bit patriotic or whatnot I would have a few questions.

Question number 1: Let's say Ukraine is ground down to the point of accepting territorial concessions. Let's say Russia gets to keep everything it currently holds, maybe even more. OK. Russia wins. Now what?

NATO expanded and the other Eastern European nations just armed themselves to the teeth. Most of our immediate European neighbors have shut their borders and nobody is willing to buy or sell anything from or to us and half the national reserves of Russia are now frozen in western banks for the foreseeable future and we're back on the top of America's shit list.

On top of that, our central Asian hostages seems to have used to distraction to slip out of our sphere of influence and into that of China or Turkey.

Question 2. I'm a "good Russian patriot" and I vote exactly as "my" president Putin tells me to. If Putin dies without telling me who to vote for, what will I do? Or I am a politically passive sheep Russian, what will become of me without Putin making decisions for me? Who will make decisions for me then?

At least in North Korea they have their dynasty and in China they have The Party and the head honchos will appoint someone. Russia seems to have the same political structure as Nazi Germany. Putler on top, being the very incarnation of the state, with a bunch of loons orbiting around him and competing with each other for Senpai's attention but with no ability to lead or clear path to succeeding him.

In Russia today there seems to be no plan for anything beyond extremely short term immediate ideological objectives or Putin's whims.

Thing is, even if they have those questions, the vast majority of them won't resort to openly questioning their government even as the long term prospects of their country is on a one way ticket to hell.

Russia's future is grim and will remain so until they find it in them to be deeply and openly critical of what is going on in a fashion that also embraces that Russia and the Russian people are responsible for it all. Needless to say, that's not a day coming any time soon, to put it mildly.

[Darsithis]

Germany is sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and allowing export from allied countries:

https://www.npr.org/2023/01/25/11507...-tanks-ukraine

The U.S is sending Abrams, and who knows who else will export now.

[Biglog]

On the Russian populous, last week Russia placed a prison bus next to a memorial for the Dnipro apartment building victims and threatened to put anyone that laid flowers there directly on the bus. Russians that have posted on social media questioning the war get knocks on their door and are arrested. Combine threats with pervasive state propaganda and you have a compliant population.

As for the tanks, they'll help although Ukraine needs C-UAS maybe even more. The war is well past diplomacy or just asking Russia to leave Ukraine. Conservatives prior to WW2 were isolationist too using some of the same excuses as today about the cost and not wanting to get involved, and they were proven horribly wrong. That's precisely why the US didn't enter the war until Pearl Harbor, when the politicians that opposed entering the war realized the true cost. It's the old those that fail to learn from history repeat it. So when there is an expansionist adversary has is actively attempting to overrun Ukraine and has openly admitted wanting to do the same to several sovereign NATO countries if/when successful in Ukraine and saying it is 'at war with the West', it would be incomprehensible to do nothing.