Russian invasion of Ukraine

[jonnysensible]

Ukraine sure, but we have some definitive proof Russia has it down bad. There's so much different gore VODs of Russian soldiers being destroyed all over the internet that does lend credibility to the claim they're down 100k+ at least

the lines arent moving much and the capacity for either side to capture or assault each other dont seem that high. Both sides are still largely reconstituting forces. Artillery fire rates are down heavily.

The tanks will allow Ukraine to commit to combined arms offensives. More artillery shells are good as well, both sides will start rationing soon.

Not alot is going on atm really, the west will keep propping up Ukraine and Russia is facing profound problems at home. (murders and criminals who have served 6 months with Wagner are coming home, crimes involving firearms are up like 600% lol, society is becoming feudal, sanctions are biting).

[YUPPIE]

Russia is facing profound problems at home. (murders and criminals who have served 6 months with Wagner are coming home, crimes involving firearms are up like 600% lol, society is becoming feudal, sanctions are biting).

do you have any proof Russia at home is in chaos? I always thought Moscow was still in its own little harmonious bubble, oblivious to the worse.

[Corvus]

Soledar is a bit of a trap for russia. They expended huge resources taking it and now find themselves with Ukraine on the high ground to the west of it shelling them mercilessly with no cover left to speak of.

[Airlick]

I find it weird to assume that Germany wouldn't be able to buy gas then?
Wouldn't it just get even cheaper and easier if Russia is falling apart? You could easily spread your influence then as well as a very important buyer in a weak goverment. It's not like warbands will be roaming around just because the russian federation falls apart.
On top of that, the infrastructure is already there as well.

I just said we don't know if cheap gas would be available if Russia broke apart, not that it definitely wouldn't. If Russia falls apart peacefully, basically like Soviet Union, and no shenanigans between the new countries themselves AND between them and Germany ensue, then sure, the gas would flow. But even in a peaceful scenario they may be conflicted and block the pipes, it's something Russia even did or threatened to do before the war, no reason to believe its successor states couldn't do the same to their neighbours and their partners. Plus we're talking about likely shithole countries led by a bunch of Kadyrovs, because that's what they would really be for at least decades, not developed democracies. You can reference Africa as to who's better at dealing with warlords and corrupt governments, China or the West.

And then you got the less peaceful scenario with Russia actually trying to keep its minority republics under its control, which would basically be Chechnya 3.0 for it, except happening in 20 places at the same time. The infrastructure wouldn't be likely to survive that.

So yeah, all in all, if we disregard morality and just want cheap gas, then having Russia survive intact is definitely the safest outcome. It's potentially not the very best outcome, but there are also far worse possibilities.

[Corvus]

Man, russia is crying so hard about the tanks. On one hand it is a massive escalation, and on the other hand they are no big deal and will easily be destroyed. Classic fascism.

russia's spokesdrunk is now saying that it is part of NATO's pre-planned war against russia. So NATO's plan was to make russia invade then spend 11 months trying not to send tanks before giving in and doing so in he face of russia's genocide?

[YUPPIE]

Man, russia is crying so hard about the tanks.

Yes, they are very pissed, but (interestingly) no one is afraid of Russia's responses.

[Breccia]

My only issue with the US/German agreement to deliver tanks is that it wasn't done sooner. Simply put, moving tanks and training crew takes time, and it's late January. I don't know the logistics of Russia, say, rushing ill-equipped soldiers into the field in the depths of winter, or shoving in a ton of armor in the early muddy days of spring. I would just feel better if the tanks were up and ready before Russia had any chance to realistically take advantage of their absence.

That's it. I'm happy Ukraine is getting these top-of-the-line items and still do not believe Russia will nuke us for it.

[Corvus]

At least one russian seems to understand the significance of western tanks - he is saying that even the basic export model of the Abrams is superior to anything russia has in serial production, and that they lack 3rd gen ATGMs like the Javelin, and that older ATGMs are the bulk of their forces Also that russian tanks are using older soviet ammo, which is sufficient at close ranges against Ukrainian tanks but putting them at a disadvantage against Western tanks.

[Edge-]

Yes, they are very pissed, but (interestingly) no one is afraid of Russia's responses.

It's not actually that interesting.

What's Russia gonna do, sail a few of their warships into US/German harbors and then sink them?

[YUPPIE]

It's not actually that interesting.

it was interesting before and now to a degree when Russia waved the nuke and invasion (we're gonna invade YOU next) threats for defiance, people would scramble to not displease them too much. We can see that in Schol even now.

But nowadays, people just don't seem to care all that much. Kazakhstan in particular, despite having Russian forces oppress civil unrest prior to the war, has just been verbally shitting on Russia non-stop since. And Kazak is not a superpower or anything powerful.

Russia has yet to do anything truly meaningful to make the world at large fear them, since its raping and murdering of civilians seems to only anger and disgust than scare anyone.

[Corvus]

On the subject of superior Western tank tech, this is how impressive the gun stabilisers are on the Leopard.

[Elder Millennial]

If Russia falls apart peacefully, basically like Soviet Union

This is a misconception. The Soviet Union didn't fall apart peacefully. While the Baltics, Belarus and Ukraine (in hindsight, the latter two examples are debateable) separated mostly freely, many of the Asian and Caucuses Republics went to war with each other almost immediately and Moldova and Georgia got pro-Russian breakaway regions and civil war/unrest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-Soviet_conflicts

The Soviet collapse was anything but peaceful. Even Russia had a failed coup that was one bad day and one corrupt Defense Minister having a brief moment of conscience away from turning into a civil war.

The real concern is having various breakaway Republics with nukes, run by loons like Khadyrov, who might just end up nuking each other for some latent 300 year old ethnic conflict and an inability to agree on who makes better vodka and hates the gays more.

This is the problem with both the USSR and Russia. They weren't and aren't federated countries or supernational unions like the US or the EU. They were and are colonial empires where the borders, infrastructure, local politics, cultural and religious ties are not truly representative of the administrative structure the Russians imposed upon their empire.

The Ukraine war is in reality just a 18 to 20th century colonial war transplanted into the 21st century. The most striking parallels would probably be that of the Franco-Algerian war.

[YUPPIE]

That is exactly why Putin's life's goal is to restore that empire by reabsorbing all the former Soviet states and be remembered as the greatest Russian leader ever. Peter the Great 2.0 by his own words.

[Xyonai]

I'm wondering what Russia's response to this will be

I think it's against forum rules to just reply with meme images, so I'll type it out and you can imagine the shrugging old man:

"I guess I'll just die."

[YUPPIE]

Russia has further responded to the tanks being delivered, citing them it a foolish waste of money on the West's part, and that Russia will easily destroy them

Jan 25 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Wednesday that any Abrams battle tanks supplied to Ukraine by the United States would "burn", dismissing the expected delivery as an expensive folly.

U.S. officials told Reuters on Tuesday that Washington was poised to send dozens of its M1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine, reversing its previous position. The report comes after Germany looked set to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine after initially resisting the request.

Speaking at a daily briefing with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that while the Abrams shipments were not confirmed, they would be a waste of money.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...rce=reddit.com

[Corvus]

Russia are down almost 1700 tanks confirmed lost, not to mention thousands of other vehicles, numerous planes, helicopters and ships, worth 10s of billions of dollars. Some of their missile waves have cost hundreds of millions.

- - - Updated - - -

In less than a year, pootie has destroyed an energy business that took 3 generations to build.

https://archive.md/ugkWW

[postman1782]

Russia has further responded to the tanks being delivered, citing them it a foolish waste of money on the West's part, and that Russia will easily destroy them

Jan 25 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Wednesday that any Abrams battle tanks supplied to Ukraine by the United States would "burn", dismissing the expected delivery as an expensive folly.

U.S. officials told Reuters on Tuesday that Washington was poised to send dozens of its M1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine, reversing its previous position. The report comes after Germany looked set to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine after initially resisting the request.

Speaking at a daily briefing with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that while the Abrams shipments were not confirmed, they would be a waste of money.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...rce=reddit.com

Russia can't even defend their own tanks, they are getting owned so easily, hell, do they even have an air force in that area anymore?

[Gabriel]

On the subject of superior Western tank tech, this is how impressive the gun stabilisers are on the Leopard.

Damn Germans and their beer...

[Corvus]

Damn Germans and their beer...

The Germans didn't realise 'hold my beer' was a saying, not an order.

[Kaleredar]

In less than a year, pootie has destroyed an energy business that took 3 generations to build.

https://archive.md/ugkWW

Early estimates predicted that this little foray into Ukraine would set Russia back a decade's worth of progress. And that estimate was formulated months ago. I can only imagine what that looks like now.