Russian invasion of Ukraine

[YUPPIE]

No one wants to engage in a game of nuclear chicken with a nation that's shown its willingness to murder non-combatants wholesale. In the likely scenario their nuclear arsenal is dogshit, it just takes one missile getting through to kill millions; so even if we're able to push Russia's shit back to the stone age that's damage already done.

Keeping Russia contained to Ukraine keeps them from lashing out and being unpredictable.

so the threat is real. And that's all that needs to be said for this topic.

Anyway since the convo seems muddled, I was mainly mad at people saying the US should interfere in Ukraine because Russia poses no genuine threat; that the only reason we don't is purely based on political reasons.

[Edge-]

so the threat is real. And that's all that needs to be said for this topic.

Anyway since the convo seems muddled, I was mainly mad at people saying the US should interfere in Ukraine because Russia poses no genuine threat; that the only reason we don't is purely based on political reasons.

Isn't that what sending Ukraine billions in aide, equipment, and training is?

[YUPPIE]

Isn't that what sending Ukraine billions in aide, equipment, and training is?

only to a degree, if only because what we also send is just (relatively) outdated crap so the training is more meaningful than that. But there will never be US boots on Ukraine soil. That is true interference.

[Edge-]

only to a degree, if only because what we also send is just (relatively) outdated crap so the training is more meaningful than that. But there will never be US boots on Ukraine soil. That is true interference.

That's an arbitrary personal definition.

[YUPPIE]

That's an arbitrary personal definition.

I think I should have illustrated an important point of why Russia isn't going MAD or all-out destruction over the West sending aid and training:

It's because, for much aid Ukraine receives that way, it hasn't done much to deter the Russian advance and war machine. Sure the Russians are dying on masse like locusts by the day, but it's not stopping them from raining missiles down on Ukraine every week and slowly inching towards the finish line per 100 deaths or 1000 deaths like we see in Soledar.

Now if US troops alone were to interfere, that'd change very quickly to Russians being annihilated on all fronts with no inching of any advance at all. Hence, "true" interference in that regard.

[AntiFascistVoter]

Recall, the Zelensky onthe red carpet was also considered a bridge to far.

[jonnysensible]

nothing should be stopping the West from getting in Ukraine right now; .

I agree we should go in right now and stop fucking around.

[Edge-]

I think I should have illustrated an important point of why Russia isn't going MAD or all-out destruction over the West sending aid and training:

It's because, for much aid Ukraine receives that way, it hasn't done much to deter the Russian advance and war machine. Sure they're dying on masse like locusts by the day, but it's not stopping them from raining missiles down on Ukraine and slowly inching towards the finish line per 100 deaths.

Now if US troops alone were to interfere, that'd change very quickly to Russians being annihilated on all fronts with no inching of any advance at all. Hence, "true" interference in that regard.

Probably because MAD is still the dumbest concept ever and they can't otherwise achieve all-out destruction, I'd guess.

Because most of what they're doing is all bluster since they're struggling to wage war against their smaller next-door neighbor, much less a well armed, trained, and supplied modern fighting force.

It hasn't done much to deter the Russian advance? Didn't Ukraine take back a shitload of territory and largely halt additional advances already? Isn't Russia's "war machine" frequently breaking down and/or running out of fuel? And bodies to throw into the meat grinder? Aren't the vast majority of their missiles being intercepted, with more capable air-defense systems still coming?

I'm not sure what any of this matters short of you apparently enjoying being in a perpetually panicked state.

[YUPPIE]

It hasn't done much to deter the Russian advance?

not really. They still keep coming back/are still going, after all, with newfound missiles and troops.

Reminder of when Putin recently boasted he has at least 500k more troops to send out when our estimates are 180k casualties as the Russian side is concerned after over a year.

[Edge-]

not really. They still keep coming back/are still going, after all, with newfound missiles and troops.

How much forward progress have they made in retaking territory they lost late last year? Or new territory?

Reminder of when Putin recently boasted he has at least 500k more troops to send out when our estimates are 180k casualties as the Russian side is concerned after over a year.

You really need to stop focusing on the bluster and rhetoric, it's terrible for your blood pressure.

[YUPPIE]

Or new territory?

good timing because I've been observing progress on a brutal ongoing battle ATM

Vugledar is about 150 kilometres (93 miles) south of Bakhmut, where Russian troops have been fighting for control longer than for any other city since the invasion.

Ukraine said today its troops were locked in "fierce" fighting with Russian troops for control of the town of Vugledar in the region of Donetsk on the eastern front.

Russian-backed forces claimed they were "waiting for good news" from the town, which had a pre-invasion population of around 15,000 people, but Kyiv said Moscow's troops were misrepresenting any gains.

"There is fierce combat there," Ukrainian military spokesman Sergiy Cherevaty told local media.

"For many months, the military of the Russian Federation... has been trying to achieve significant success there," he said.

[Edge-]

good timing because I've been observing progress on a brutal ongoing battle ATM

Vugledar is about 150 kilometres (93 miles) south of Bakhmut, where Russian troops have been fighting for control longer than for any other city since the invasion.

Ukraine said today its troops were locked in "fierce" fighting with Russian troops for control of the town of Vugledar in the region of Donetsk on the eastern front.

Russian-backed forces claimed they were "waiting for good news" from the town, which had a pre-invasion population of around 15,000 people, but Kyiv said Moscow's troops were misrepresenting any gains.

"There is fierce combat there," Ukrainian military spokesman Sergiy Cherevaty told local media.

"For many months, the military of the Russian Federation... has been trying to achieve significant success there," he said.

So...no?

Russia is still fighting over a tiny town (man, the tiny town I grew up in has a bigger population than that) that they've been fighting over for months?

The article doesn't say, but is there any strategic value to this town beyond, "Putin wants to control all of the Donetsk region.", but is there?

[Gabriel]

The offense I took was people here now saying MAD and the nuke threat aren't actually real on Russia's part, that also being a bluff. I take it as an offense because then, hypothetically, it means Russia has absolutely no leverage and nothing should be stopping the West from getting in Ukraine right now; minimal casualties means fuck all in the scope of things.

So that paints the narrative we are just watching them do all this evil shit but it's not really our personal business to stop them directly - yet we can at any point, any time.

Bingo. We in the West have grown too comfortable and averse to violence. We absolutely could stop the genocide going on in Ukraine right now, but majority of people have lost their proverbial balls and people in power have grown fat on the teat of cheap russian energy. I have no issue admitting this.

[Voidism]

Bingo. We in the West have grown too comfortable and averse to violence. We absolutely could stop the genocide going on in Ukraine right now, but majority of people have lost their proverbial balls and people in power have grown fat on the teat of cheap russian energy. I have no issue admitting this.

Yes, this is pretty much the reason. Many still haven't "woken up" as we accuse the russian people of. We're way more 'awake' than the russians, but we are in the early stages of understanding this is a new order of things. I wish russian people would wake up to reality too.

[YUPPIE]

So...no?

Russia is still fighting over a tiny town (man, the tiny town I grew up in has a bigger population than that) that they've been fighting over for months?

The article doesn't say, but is there any strategic value to this town beyond, "Putin wants to control all of the Donetsk region.", but is there?

sorry about late reply; I drink heavily in the mornings.

Anyways, I'm just gonna make an analogy here:

Say it's a small town, like you say: 15k people and some 100+ Ukrainian soldiers. Should a Russian take this hypothetical town, a few things happen

1) They plant their seeds there, inching for an offensive bit by bit. "Brick by brick, house to house."

2) they kill, deport, and/or torture every Ukrainian there, so that metaphorical 15k+ casualties.

So any time the Russians captures a town in Ukraine, no matter how small, that's what it amounts to. It shouldn't happen, and it's why a shantytown like Vugledar - as you say - is being brutally contested.

That's my take.

[Edge-]

sorry about late reply; I drink heavily in the mornings.

This explains a lot.

Anyways, I'm just gonna make an analogy here:

I'd rather you deal with reality rather than whatever fictional scenario you conjure up in your head, especially after some early morning drinking.

[YUPPIE]

It's just an analogy, not fiction, as to why Ukraine values these small towns or seemingly inconsequential locales people brush off like Soledar. And it's a good explanation to why Russia goes all-out for them, because on paper it sounds stupid they would be so desperate to take some meager land.

[Makabreska]

sorry about late reply; I drink heavily in the mornings.

Do you really think what you do is good for you?

[Gabriel]

I drink heavily in the mornings.

We know m8.

[Nymrohd]

The offense I took was people here now saying MAD and the nuke threat aren't actually real on Russia's part, that also being a bluff.

There absolutely is reasonably doubt on MAD. The hypothesis that Russia likely struggled maintaining their arsenal because of the immense cost is not new (especially considering START and New START). The level of corruption shown and the effect it has had on military preparedness for Russia absolutely makes one question how much of the Russian nuclear arsenal is actually operative. Their military complex seems to have largely been performative, spending money on expensive trailers for Wunderwaffe that never really existed. Otherwise, where are they?