Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

Up to 7 different cities across Iran look to have been hit, targeting factories, power and oil facilities. Far too coordinated to be local protesters. That anyone could get that many drones through Iranian air defences undetected is impressive.

Ok, but if they came from Israel they would need to go through quite a few other countries as well, and those countries aren't too friendly with Israel so they too would need to miss a swarm of drones entering their airspace. Bit odd tbh.

[Corvus]

Ok, but if they came from Israel they would need to go through quite a few other countries as well, and those countries aren't too friendly with Israel so they too would need to miss a swarm of drones entering their airspace. Bit odd tbh.

That's where Azerbaijan comes in. Borders Iran, hates Iran, had military ties with Israel and reportedly allows Israeli drones to fly out of it.

[Kallisto]

Ok, but if they came from Israel they would need to go through quite a few other countries as well, and those countries aren't too friendly with Israel so they too would need to miss a swarm of drones entering their airspace. Bit odd tbh.

Eh, Arab states outside of Syria and maybe Iraq genuinely don't care about Israel anymore and consider Iran to be the big threat now. It's why in the past few years many if not signing treaties recognising Israel have been making many deals that are basically enemy of my enemy is my friend.

[Iphie]

Eh, Arab states outside of Syria and maybe Iraq genuinely don't care about Israel anymore and consider Iran to be the big threat now. It's why in the past few years many if not signing treaties recognising Israel have been making many deals that are basically enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Well, to hit the areas in Iran the drones would have to pass through Syria and Iraq, so that's then exactly a no-no, but Azerbaijan makes sense.

[Gorsameth]

The Iranian government has a strict policy that if their sovereignty is threatened by external forces, they will destroy those offenders to dust. I mean like all-out ISIS bloodlust. That's why no one really ever wants to fuck with Iran. So you bet they'll haul ass and split up their forces if it was an external force.

Realistically though, it's unlikely this is anyone but the protestors due to Iran's geographic location. The drone factory being blown up is nice for Ukraine, though.

Iran, like Russia, can say whatever they want. Doesn't mean people will take them seriously. Israel is the dominant force in the area. If Iran attacks it will just be another repeat of the 6 day war and Israel would make mince meat out of Iran's forces even without the US's backing.

[Huehuecoyotl]

The Iranian government has a strict policy that if their sovereignty is threatened by external forces, they will destroy those offenders to dust. I mean like all-out ISIS bloodlust. That's why no one really ever wants to fuck with Iran. So you bet they'll haul ass and split up their forces if it was an external force.

Realistically though, it's unlikely this is anyone but the protestors due to Iran's geographic location. The drone factory being blown up is nice for Ukraine, though.

I know this is a rabbit hole that it's probably a waste of time to go down, but let's have a quick run through of the "consistency" of your stance.

On the one hand, nobody would dare to attack Russia, because they are a nuclear power and to do so would be to court utter destruction. On the other hand, if Israel have attacked Iran, then Israel (a nuclear power) are courting destruction because Iran has made it clear what they will do to any country that attacks them.

So, walk me through this. Do nuclear weapons make you immune to attack or not?

[jonnysensible]

The Iranian government has a strict policy that if their sovereignty is threatened by external forces, they will destroy those offenders to dust. I mean like all-out ISIS bloodlust. That's why no one really ever wants to fuck with Iran. So you bet they'll haul ass and split up their forces if it was an external force

.

Realistically though, it's unlikely this is anyone but the protestors due to Iran's geographic location. The drone factory being blown up is nice for Ukraine, though.

negative if its anyone its Israel.

[Corvus]

Still uncertain as to just what happened in Iran, but the rumour mill may have overstated things. There has only been one confirmed drone attack, on a munitions factory, as well as a fire at an oil refinery which may or may not have been related. In a bizarre coincidence there was also a 5.9 magnitude earthquake in Iran (unless Jewish space lasers now cause earthquakes), which might have been the cause of some of the other rumours. The Iranians are saying that 3 quadcopters were involved in the factory attack (and of course they are saying they dealt with them all before they could do anything.) Quadcopters are short range local things, so that might make it less an Israeli thing and more a local thing. It may be we never know.

But back to actual Ukrainian matters - the Wankers took such catastrophic losses securing one small town that they are now exhausted and are having to be replaced with regular russian units. It might be that they never recover after this. Looks like the threat of the Prig may be done with for now and the russian army has eliminated him as a threat to themselves as much as the Ukrainians.

And another example of just how far russia has fallen, via a Khazakstani ad for chocolate. There is no fear of them anymore.



I want to try some Kazakhstani chocolate now.

[Iphie]

But back to actual Ukrainian matters - the Wankers took such catastrophic losses securing one small town that they are now exhausted and are having to be replaced with regular russian units. It might be that they never recover after this. Looks like the threat of the Prig may be done with for now and the russian army has eliminated him as a threat to themselves as much as the Ukrainians.


I want to try some Kazakhstani chocolate now.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: it's as if they planned it to eliminate Wagner as a threat. I don't think so, but this is definitely a win/win for the russian army and the Ukrainians.

[Biglog]

Wondering how much longer Prigozhyn and Putin can co-exist before one tries to take the other out. Kind of surprised one of them hasn't tried already. In Russia challenges to Putin's power tend to end in them "throwing themselves" off tall apartment buildings or being found in car trunks. And Prigozhyn is probably well aware it's only a matter of time before a suspicious accident.

[Kallisto]

Wondering how much longer Prigozhyn and Putin can co-exist before one tries to take the other out. Kind of surprised one of them hasn't tried already. In Russia challenges to Putin's power tend to end in them "throwing themselves" off tall apartment buildings or being found in car trunks. And Prigozhyn is probably well aware it's only a matter of time before a suspicious accident.

If Prig thought himself in trouble he'd likely get himself on a flight to central Africa where he has basically his own fiefdoms running mines with his own guards. Not sure if that's good long-term protection but unlike most, he has some gtfo options.

[Iphie]

If Prig thought himself in trouble he'd likely get himself on a flight to central Africa where he has basically his own fiefdoms running mines with his own guards. Not sure if that's good long-term protection but unlike most, he has some gtfo options.

Eh, if prig were to flee now his troops would probably get demoralized and that might break them, he's not in an easy position.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Can I ask if Ukraine needed the tanks without looking like I'm siding with Russia or anything?

Its a question NATO members asked, struggled with, and obviously ended up saying yes to but I feel like it is necessary that the move has moved the war up a level.

* Ukraine deserves to defend itself and Russia deserves to get it ass kicked.


But was the situation bad enough to warrant tanks? I would say yes if I was in Ukraine because I would want all tools available to defend my phone. Is it right for NATO to push weapons they know will escalate the war and get more Ukrainians killed if Ukraine was handling business without the tanks. I also stopped following the war closely so idk.


Its like you see a person being bullied so you teach them how to fight. The person is able to defend themselves but now has to fight to keep from getting bullied. You give the person a knife so now they dont have to fight as hard knowing their bully will likely get a knife as well and was waiting for an excuse to use said knife. The kid you helped will now forever face unique consequences whether the bully stops or not, things like people coming at them to steal their knife or having to live with the life long consequences of being stabbed if/when they get stabbed.


I'm leaning on the side of "fuck it, give them more tanks" but I'm saying that as someone an world away that doesn't have to deal with the consequences of an escalated war and the fallout.

I get your take...but the deciding factor for me is that, whether the rest of the world sends tanks or not, Russia is escalating anyway.

[YUPPIE]

This may just be propaganda, but a Belarusian officer allegedly stated in response to Putin's boast that Belarus will join the war on the frontline (the previously mentioned all-out Kyiv assault), it's highly possible Belarus soldiers will turn on Putin and Lukashenk if they are sent to battle.

[Xyonai]

Which means they're not going to war, unless Putin - in his infinite wisdom - decides to terrorize Belarus into compliance with whatever armed forces aren't being turned into paste in Ukraine.

What this likely means is that Russia's going to try and push/move through Belarus again with their own troops using the country's infrastructure, like they attempted at the start of the war.

[Gorsameth]

This may just be propaganda, but a Belarusian officer allegedly stated in response to Putin's boast that Belarus will join the war on the frontline (the previously mentioned all-out Kyiv assault), it's highly possible Belarus soldiers will turn on Putin and Lukashenk if they are sent to battle.

Supposedly the Belarusian army strait up refused to join the invasion back at the start. So this hardly seems like a stretch.

[YUPPIE]

without Belarus, I don't see how Putin will adequately replenish lost soldiers to fight in the foreseeable future. I mean I had faith Iran would help Russia out, but the news ongoing has really put a dent there.

The topic of coercion/forcing them to fight is also invalidated by the fact they'll just wage war against the barrier troops enforcing their loyalty - and that's assuming they don't kill Lukashenk before they even leave Belarus.

How will Putin figure this out?

[Kallisto]

without Belarus, I don't see how Putin will adequately replenish lost soldiers to fight in the foreseeable future. I mean I had faith Iran would help Russia out, but the news ongoing has really put a dent there.

I surely hope English isn't your first language because having faith in something happening means you want it to happen. Which just means you said you wanted Russia to have help and thus siding with Russia.

[YUPPIE]

I surely hope English isn't your first language because having faith in something happening means you want it to happen. Which just means you said you wanted Russia to have help and thus siding with Russia.

"I believed" was probably more adequate, yeah.

I am no Russian shill.

At any rate, I don't know how Putin is going to replenish his numbers with Wagner having its internal issues and Iran as it is. That said, Zelenksy believes Russia will keep going on regardless of odds


"Bakhmut, Vuhledar and other areas in the Donetsk region are under constant Russian attacks. There are constant attempts to break through our defence. The enemy does not count its people and, despite numerous casualties, maintains a high intensity of attacks. In some of its wars, Russia has lost in total less people than it loses there, in particular near Bakhmut," said Zelenskyy."

[Gorsameth]

without Belarus, I don't see how Putin will adequately replenish lost soldiers to fight in the foreseeable future. I mean I had faith Iran would help Russia out, but the news ongoing has really put a dent there.

The topic of coercion/forcing them to fight is also invalidated by the fact they'll just wage war against the barrier troops enforcing their loyalty - and that's assuming they don't kill Lukashenk before they even leave Belarus.

How will Putin figure this out?

You have been harping about how Russia still has millions of soldiers they can throw at Ukraine, and now you don't see how they will replenish lost soldiers?

Which is it?
Get your facts strait.