Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Santti]

Just curious: What do people think the odds are of Russia utterly collapsing when Putin dies? He's spent decades arranging Russia as being incapable of functioning without him leading it, after all, and his successor will not have the same kind of influence he does. Wouldn't be the first country that had been ruled by a dictator for decades that fell apart when the dictator died; see also Tito and Yugoslavia.

I doubt Putin dying would change much. Might hasten Russia getting out of Ukraine, should that war still be going at that point, but I doubt him dying would have much affect on whether Russia collapses or not. Putin came from nowhere, and I'm sure there are plenty of people like him around the corner.

[Zaydin]

I don't predict a full collapse; it has enough industry and resources to keep limping along after Putin's out of power and could - maybe - work itself back up to a quasi respectable regional power if they give up on antagonizing literally every other country within arm's reach. If Putin's not elected out, and dies in office, I can see a massive shitshow happening to find a successor, though.

Do you really think Putin would ever allow the risk of actually being kicked out of office by voters to actually happen?

When Putin dies, what happens in Russia will depend on how much influence his handpicked successor has.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Just curious: What do people think the odds are of Russia utterly collapsing when Putin dies? He's spent decades arranging Russia as being incapable of functioning without him leading it, after all, and his successor will not have the same kind of influence he does. Wouldn't be the first country that had been ruled by a dictator for decades that fell apart when the dictator died; see also Tito and Yugoslavia.

It depends. If someone with enough weight behind them steps into his position, the structure that Putin has made use of could be enough to hold it together. The nightmare scenario would be if nobody has enough momentum behind them to step into that position and you have a group of wannabe Putins all consolidating their positions in small parts of Russia. The end result could be a whole bunch of small states with physical access to nuclear weapons (even if they can't properly use or maintain them).

It could get pretty ugly. Because I don't think Putin has given a moments thought to how the "handover" of power is going to look. He doesn't care if Russia burns to the ground once he's gone.

The plus side of all that is that Russia will never again be a threat to the eastern part of Europe, who'll probably join NATO pretty quickly to avoid troubles from any of those small parts of Russia seeking to expand their borders. But China might start gobbling up parts of what is currently eastern Russia, and who knows how that plays out.

Probably won't be a fun time whatever happens, for Russia itself or the rest of the world. That kind of uncertainty and conflict never is.

[zealo]

Just curious: What do people think the odds are of Russia utterly collapsing when Putin dies? He's spent decades arranging Russia as being incapable of functioning without him leading it, after all, and his successor will not have the same kind of influence he does. Wouldn't be the first country that had been ruled by a dictator for decades that fell apart when the dictator died; see also Tito and Yugoslavia.

Yugoslavia was a multicultural country in a way Russia really isn't.

Russians are the ethnic and cultural majority in most regions of Russia proper outside of some exceptions near the Caucasus in the south, I can't really see the state collapsing for the reasons as Yugoslavia.

[Corvus]

Did pootie pre-record his speech at 1 in the morning, because the audience looked half asleep and really struggling to stay awake, even with the threat of open windows.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...135031808?s=20

[Kallisto]

Did pootie pre-record his speech at 1 in the morning, because the audience looked half asleep and really struggling to stay awake, even with the threat of open windows.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...135031808?s=20

Was a special staying awake operation

[Edge-]

Did pootie pre-record his speech at 1 in the morning, because the audience looked half asleep and really struggling to stay awake, even with the threat of open windows.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...135031808?s=20

Who is this audience supposed to be? Lots of folks in suits and whatnot, then random monk and (I think) Russian Orthodox guy with a few military dudes behind them, navy and I assume army?

[KrayZ33]

Putin ASMR- so soothing, he fell asleep - forever.

[Gorsameth]

It depends. If someone with enough weight behind them steps into his position, the structure that Putin has made use of could be enough to hold it together. The nightmare scenario would be if nobody has enough momentum behind them to step into that position and you have a group of wannabe Putins all consolidating their positions in small parts of Russia. The end result could be a whole bunch of small states with physical access to nuclear weapons (even if they can't properly use or maintain them).

It could get pretty ugly. Because I don't think Putin has given a moments thought to how the "handover" of power is going to look. He doesn't care if Russia burns to the ground once he's gone.

The plus side of all that is that Russia will never again be a threat to the eastern part of Europe, who'll probably join NATO pretty quickly to avoid troubles from any of those small parts of Russia seeking to expand their borders. But China might start gobbling up parts of what is currently eastern Russia, and who knows how that plays out.

Probably won't be a fun time whatever happens, for Russia itself or the rest of the world. That kind of uncertainty and conflict never is.

I don't know that Putin doesn't care for what comes after him.
If he didn't care about the future of Russia he wouldn't be so fiercely fighting to keep its sphere of influence alive while his health deteriorates. He already has absolute power in Russia, if he only cared about himself he could live out the rest of his days in comfort and peace.
He wants a legacy, the glory of the USSR restored. That requires it doesn't all burn down the moment he falls over.

[Corvus]

Who is this audience supposed to be? Lots of folks in suits and whatnot, then random monk and (I think) Russian Orthodox guy with a few military dudes behind them, navy and I assume army?

Usual pootie rent-a-crowd. Plus, like with the orange cheeto, a few token minorities tossed in for the appearance of inclusivity, rather than the raging racists they actually are.

- - - Updated - - -

So, while Biden was in Kyiv, russia tried to test their new Sarmat ICBM, you know, the one they keep threatening London with.

Tried is the word though, because it failed.

Maybe they need some viagra for their performance issues. Oh, wait, apparently sales of viagra have been banned to russia now as well.

[Iphie]

Do you really think Putin would ever allow the risk of actually being kicked out of office by voters to actually happen?

When Putin dies, what happens in Russia will depend on how much influence his handpicked successor has.

putin might not, but he may have no choice, if he actually would get voted out you can bet your butt it means his inner circle, or others who can make this happen have decided he has served his purpose and now it's time to go.

[Kallisto]

Maybe they need some viagra for their performance issues. Oh, wait, apparently sales of viagra have been banned to russia now as well.

If there's one thing I thought they would not be banning with their demographic time bomb it would be Viagra.

[Iphie]

If there's one thing I thought they would not be banning with their demographic time bomb it would be Viagra.

It's not banned by russia...the manufacturer did.

[Kallisto]

It's not banned by russia...the manufacturer did.

Ah I read "Banned to Russia." as "Banned by Russia." my bad

[Nilinor]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...27e991b6e35a26

Hmm..

Another suicide, I guess something about being around Putin makes people want to kill themselves afterwards.

[Gabriel]

I don't predict a full collapse; it has enough industry and resources to keep limping along after Putin's out of power and could - maybe - work itself back up to a quasi respectable regional power if they give up on antagonizing literally every other country within arm's reach. If Putin's not elected out, and dies in office, I can see a massive shitshow happening to find a successor, though.

Lul. Not happening.

[Iphie]

Lul. Not happening.

Well...if they make an honest effort they might be back at the table in a generation or two. But given the nation we're talking about that's a tall order.

[ringpriest]

Just curious: What do people think the odds are of Russia utterly collapsing when Putin dies? He's spent decades arranging Russia as being incapable of functioning without him leading it, after all, and his successor will not have the same kind of influence he does. Wouldn't be the first country that had been ruled by a dictator for decades that fell apart when the dictator died; see also Tito and Yugoslavia.

Quite low. Less than < 1%, as of today.

While he looks like just another autocrat to the casual glance, he's actually more like a Russian capo di tutti i capi ("the boss of the all the bosses" in an organized crime organization). Russia is an oligarchy, and all the surviving oligarchs have lesser or greater ties to Putin, but its not only oligarchs who Putin rules for;he's the big boss and chief referee for a number of additional factions, including the military, the FSB, aspiring warlords, the nomenklatura and all the other regime apparatchiks and Moscow and St Petersburg elites.

For almost two decades, Russia (which actually is the sort of empire the US gets pejoratively labeled as) has been ruled by the Putin regime, for the benefit of the Putin regime. Very few power blocks remain outside of the regime, so when Putin goes, their motivation is to find a replacement, not change the regime. (Why would they want to do that? They all benefit from the status quo!) Even for "reformers" like Navalny, their criticism is how Putin has governed, not what he has governed (a de facto Russian Empire).

There will be jockeying for for power, position, and influence. It could get quite ugly. Lots of people will want to be Putin's successor (or friends with Putin's successor), but very few people with influence will desire that there be no successor. That doesn't mean the survival of the regime post-Putin is guaranteed, of course. There are several ways it could start to fall apart in Putin's wake, but few of these are an actual collapse

Even if the government is divided, dissolved and reformed, or becomes even less functional, there's still a 'Russia'. For true all-out collapse, you need either a national government that stops working and is replaced by nothing (i.e Russia becomes a failed state for some time), or a complete break-up (the constituent federal subjects re-enact the Fall of the Soviet Union, and Russia splits up into a dozen or more successor states). Neither of those are likely to happen just because Putin is no longer on the scene. There are plenty of people who have a vested interesting in keeping the current system running, even if it looks or works a little differently. And the vast majority of the various republics, krais, oblasts, cities, and okrugs are quite weak in terms of domestic politics - decades rule from Moscow has done them no favors. Even if a handful like Tartarstan and the various Muslim republics, might have the organizational and political wherewithal to secede, they can't actually do so as long as there's a central government willing to stop them.

tldr; Putin's exit might start processes that could eventually lead to a full Russian collapse, but it will not be a proximate cause of such a collapse. Russia will outlast Putin for some time, probably a decade or more.

[Nymrohd]

tldr; Putin's exit might start processes that could eventually lead to a full Russian collapse, but it will not be a proximate cause of such a collapse. Russia will outlast Putin for some time, probably a decade or more.

I'd say that there should be a concern of Chinese irredentism in Outer Manchuria.

[Flarelaine]

Just curious: What do people think the odds are of Russia utterly collapsing when Putin dies? He's spent decades arranging Russia as being incapable of functioning without him leading it, after all, and his successor will not have the same kind of influence he does. Wouldn't be the first country that had been ruled by a dictator for decades that fell apart when the dictator died; see also Tito and Yugoslavia.

Yugoslavia has been constructed from several countries where Serbia was dominant but not overwhelming. Russia is 80% Russian and have lost most of the non-Russian parts of their empire; even the nominal ethnic republics within Russia are often majority Russian.