Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Nymrohd]

tldr; Putin's exit might start processes that could eventually lead to a full Russian collapse, but it will not be a proximate cause of such a collapse. Russia will outlast Putin for some time, probably a decade or more.

I'd say that there should be a concern of Chinese irredentism in Outer Manchuria.

[Flarelaine]

Just curious: What do people think the odds are of Russia utterly collapsing when Putin dies? He's spent decades arranging Russia as being incapable of functioning without him leading it, after all, and his successor will not have the same kind of influence he does. Wouldn't be the first country that had been ruled by a dictator for decades that fell apart when the dictator died; see also Tito and Yugoslavia.

Yugoslavia has been constructed from several countries where Serbia was dominant but not overwhelming. Russia is 80% Russian and have lost most of the non-Russian parts of their empire; even the nominal ethnic republics within Russia are often majority Russian.

[Gabriel]

Yugoslavia has been constructed from several countries where Serbia was dominant but not overwhelming. Russia is 80% Russian and have lost most of the non-Russian parts of their empire; even the nominal ethnic republics within Russia are often majority Russian.

Thanks to organized effort by the Muscovites to genocide and destroy all other peoples and cultural identities besides the Soviet/Russian identity.

[arandomuser]

if i were a dictator i would simply enjoy my luxurious lifestyle and not risk my political future by engaging in a pointless war
lets say hypothetically all of putins claims are true ( they arent) but if you steel man putins argument, what does it change if his borders expand, it dosent make him wealthier, it dosent make his country wealthier its just made up lines on a map he can say is russia, all its really done is made him very popular among us conservatives but unpopular to everyone else and kill a ton of people

[Belize]

if i were a dictator i would simply enjoy my luxurious lifestyle and not risk my political future by engaging in a pointless war
lets say hypothetically all of putins claims are true ( they arent) but if you steel man putins argument, what does it change if his borders expand, it dosent make him wealthier, it dosent make his country wealthier, all its really done is made him very popular among us conservatives but unpopular to everyone else and kill a ton of people

Sensible thinking is not how you get to become a dictator.

[Gabriel]

if i were a dictator i would simply enjoy my luxurious lifestyle and not risk my political future by engaging in a pointless war
lets say hypothetically all of putins claims are true ( they arent) but if you steel man putins argument, what does it change if his borders expand, it dosent make him wealthier, it dosent make his country wealthier its just made up lines on a map he can say is russia, all its really done is made him very popular among us conservatives but unpopular to everyone else and kill a ton of people

Wanting to be an Empire builder is not that absurd of a concept. Putin is just really bad at it.

[Iphie]

if i were a dictator i would simply enjoy my luxurious lifestyle and not risk my political future by engaging in a pointless war
lets say hypothetically all of putins claims are true ( they arent) but if you steel man putins argument, what does it change if his borders expand, it dosent make him wealthier, it dosent make his country wealthier its just made up lines on a map he can say is russia, all its really done is made him very popular among us conservatives but unpopular to everyone else and kill a ton of people

The Donbas has a truckton of oil and gas, as well as a boatload of heavy industry, so it would benefit russia to take it over, in that sense it does make russia wealthier. Not that the wealth would ever reach the regular population obviously.

[Makabreska]

if i were a dictator i would simply enjoy my luxurious lifestyle and not risk my political future by engaging in a pointless war
lets say hypothetically all of putins claims are true ( they arent) but if you steel man putins argument, what does it change if his borders expand, it dosent make him wealthier, it dosent make his country wealthier its just made up lines on a map he can say is russia, all its really done is made him very popular among us conservatives but unpopular to everyone else and kill a ton of people

Dude is a product of and was part of Soviet Russia. He has a huge Cold War trauma when he saw his empire collapse and loose satellite states. He then views it as a major injustice and wants to be remembered as a guy who "reunificated glorious USSR". Hence decades of strong-arming and military conflicts. Unfortunately, he will be remembered as a failure due this asinine and incompetent invasion caused by his "muh empire!" issues.

[zorkuus]

if i were a dictator i would simply enjoy my luxurious lifestyle and not risk my political future by engaging in a pointless war
lets say hypothetically all of putins claims are true ( they arent) but if you steel man putins argument, what does it change if his borders expand, it dosent make him wealthier, it dosent make his country wealthier its just made up lines on a map he can say is russia, all its really done is made him very popular among us conservatives but unpopular to everyone else and kill a ton of people

One of the ways for a dictator to remain and strengthen their power is to create wars to distract the population from the troubles at home.
And added bonus: wartime special conditions, like martial law.

[Combatbutler]

I'd say that there should be a concern of Chinese irredentism in Outer Manchuria.

I'd wager they'd rather try to get russia firmly under their thumb as a puppet, which at this point is a very real possibillity.

[Breccia]

One of the ways for a dictator to remain and strengthen their power is to create wars to distract the population from the troubles at home.
And added bonus: wartime special conditions, like martial law.

Indeed. We saw that play out with Hitler, who did both. Putin's attempt to paint this whole thing over is, thankfully, not going nearly as well.

[Iphie]

I'd wager they'd rather try to get russia firmly under their thumb as a puppet, which at this point is a very real possibillity.

Just imagine:

The russo-Ukrainian war is indeed a proxy war between two super powers: China and the US. Never in my life had I thought this would have been something one could say and not be totally unserious. (I don't think it's true but the thought tickles my funny bone.)

[Corvus]

Nah, definitely not a proxy war. China isn't getting involved beyond lip service. The whole thing is just bad news for China, except for getting russia as a vassal state. The complete neutering of russia, reunified and energised Western democracies and the increased production of ammunition and other military equipment is the last thing China wants.

Ukraine seems to have picked up some new unknown long ranged weapon. Some speculation as to what it could be, but all that is known is that they are hitting beyond HIMARS range and striking a lot of targets in places russia must have thought were safe - it started just after Biden's visit and pooties speech and russian reports have stated it was fairly heavy in nature.

[jonnysensible]

Just imagine:

The russo-Ukrainian war is indeed a proxy war between two super powers: China and the US. Never in my life had I thought this would have been something one could say and not be totally unserious. (I don't think it's true but the thought tickles my funny bone.)

i proxy war between the US and Iran you mean

[Iphie]

I was a bit tongue-in-cheek with that, it just struck me as a funny notion: putin thinking he's the puppeteer while actually being the puppet of China. Given that a weakened russia is not entirely bad for China, as a consolation prize for putin utterly cocking up this invasion and galvanising the West and NATO in the process.

Anyway, I sincerely DOUBT this is the case, it's just a thought.

[Hugo88]

This guy nails what the Ukraine -Russia conflict is about

And Furthermore, the $$ that is being sent to the Ukraine could help fix some of America's problems
like Homelessness, Medical & Crime.

The US War Machine keeps rolling and NATO keeps trying to go east

[Nymrohd]

I was a bit tongue-in-cheek with that, it just struck me as a funny notion: putin thinking he's the puppeteer while actually being the puppet of China. Given that a weakened russia is not entirely bad for China, as a consolation prize for putin utterly cocking up this invasion and galvanising the West and NATO in the process.

Anyway, I sincerely DOUBT this is the case, it's just a thought.

Meanwhile I don't doubt it at all. China is an empire looking for a periphery, constrained by India, S. Korea and Japan and by strong alliances between the West and most of ASEAN. While its influence in ASEAN countries and much of Oceania (Australia/New Zealand included) cannot be understated, it cannot claim to be a controlling partner nor has it successfully exported ideology or culture there.
That means that China's alternative is Russia and central Asia. That is the focus of the Belt and Road initiative, far more so than Europe. China desires control over that region and it's primary antagonist for influence there is Russia. China has already used this opportunity to start peeling away Kazakhstan, the ninth largest country by surface area.

[Saradain]

This guy nails what the Ukraine -Russia conflict is about

And Furthermore, the $$ that is being sent to the Ukraine could help fix some of America's problems
like Homelessness, Medical & Crime.

The US War Machine keeps rolling and NATO keeps trying to go east

NATO does not "try", countries that are threatened by raping, murderous hordes of low-lives WANT to seek PROTECTION from the said raping and murdering

But sure, keep drinking the russian kool-aid bruh. You don't join NATO by being invaded by NATO, you join NATO by applying out of your own free will. I'm sure the local republicans want you to believe Ukraine is the threat and US is being misled, instead of...wanting to prevent genocide.

[Poopymonster]

NATO does not "try", countries that are threatened by raping, murderous hordes of low-lives WANT to seek PROTECTION from the said raping and murdering

But sure, keep drinking the russian kool-aid bruh. You don't join NATO by being invaded by NATO, you join NATO by applying out of your own free will. I'm sure the local republicans want you to believe Ukraine is the threat and US is being misled, instead of...wanting to prevent genocide.

Kool-aid is for Western Capitalist Pig Dogs.

Try Leninade!

[Saradain]

Kool-aid is for Western Capitalist Pig Dogs.

Try Leninade!

My argument has been dismantled. Filthy Western, morally corrupted pigdogs!

Not often we get random totally-unbiased youtuber links about how Russia is the greatest and most divine protector of life...