1. #29201
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Who is this audience supposed to be? Lots of folks in suits and whatnot, then random monk and (I think) Russian Orthodox guy with a few military dudes behind them, navy and I assume army?
    Usual pootie rent-a-crowd. Plus, like with the orange cheeto, a few token minorities tossed in for the appearance of inclusivity, rather than the raging racists they actually are.

    - - - Updated - - -

    So, while Biden was in Kyiv, russia tried to test their new Sarmat ICBM, you know, the one they keep threatening London with.

    Tried is the word though, because it failed.

    Maybe they need some viagra for their performance issues. Oh, wait, apparently sales of viagra have been banned to russia now as well.

  2. #29202
    The Lightbringer Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zaydin View Post
    Do you really think Putin would ever allow the risk of actually being kicked out of office by voters to actually happen?

    When Putin dies, what happens in Russia will depend on how much influence his handpicked successor has.
    putin might not, but he may have no choice, if he actually would get voted out you can bet your butt it means his inner circle, or others who can make this happen have decided he has served his purpose and now it's time to go.

  3. #29203
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post

    Maybe they need some viagra for their performance issues. Oh, wait, apparently sales of viagra have been banned to russia now as well.
    If there's one thing I thought they would not be banning with their demographic time bomb it would be Viagra.

  4. #29204
    The Lightbringer Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kallisto View Post
    If there's one thing I thought they would not be banning with their demographic time bomb it would be Viagra.
    It's not banned by russia...the manufacturer did.

  5. #29205
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    It's not banned by russia...the manufacturer did.
    Ah I read "Banned to Russia." as "Banned by Russia." my bad

  6. #29206
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...27e991b6e35a26

    Hmm..

    Another suicide, I guess something about being around Putin makes people want to kill themselves afterwards.

  7. #29207
    Quote Originally Posted by Xyonai View Post
    I don't predict a full collapse; it has enough industry and resources to keep limping along after Putin's out of power and could - maybe - work itself back up to a quasi respectable regional power if they give up on antagonizing literally every other country within arm's reach. If Putin's not elected out, and dies in office, I can see a massive shitshow happening to find a successor, though.
    Lul. Not happening.

  8. #29208
    The Lightbringer Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    Lul. Not happening.
    Well...if they make an honest effort they might be back at the table in a generation or two. But given the nation we're talking about that's a tall order.

  9. #29209
    Over 9000! ringpriest's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zaydin View Post
    Just curious: What do people think the odds are of Russia utterly collapsing when Putin dies? He's spent decades arranging Russia as being incapable of functioning without him leading it, after all, and his successor will not have the same kind of influence he does. Wouldn't be the first country that had been ruled by a dictator for decades that fell apart when the dictator died; see also Tito and Yugoslavia.
    Quite low. Less than < 1%, as of today.

    While he looks like just another autocrat to the casual glance, he's actually more like a Russian capo di tutti i capi ("the boss of the all the bosses" in an organized crime organization). Russia is an oligarchy, and all the surviving oligarchs have lesser or greater ties to Putin, but its not only oligarchs who Putin rules for;he's the big boss and chief referee for a number of additional factions, including the military, the FSB, aspiring warlords, the nomenklatura and all the other regime apparatchiks and Moscow and St Petersburg elites.

    For almost two decades, Russia (which actually is the sort of empire the US gets pejoratively labeled as) has been ruled by the Putin regime, for the benefit of the Putin regime. Very few power blocks remain outside of the regime, so when Putin goes, their motivation is to find a replacement, not change the regime. (Why would they want to do that? They all benefit from the status quo!) Even for "reformers" like Navalny, their criticism is how Putin has governed, not what he has governed (a de facto Russian Empire).

    There will be jockeying for for power, position, and influence. It could get quite ugly. Lots of people will want to be Putin's successor (or friends with Putin's successor), but very few people with influence will desire that there be no successor. That doesn't mean the survival of the regime post-Putin is guaranteed, of course. There are several ways it could start to fall apart in Putin's wake, but few of these are an actual collapse

    Even if the government is divided, dissolved and reformed, or becomes even less functional, there's still a 'Russia'. For true all-out collapse, you need either a national government that stops working and is replaced by nothing (i.e Russia becomes a failed state for some time), or a complete break-up (the constituent federal subjects re-enact the Fall of the Soviet Union, and Russia splits up into a dozen or more successor states). Neither of those are likely to happen just because Putin is no longer on the scene. There are plenty of people who have a vested interesting in keeping the current system running, even if it looks or works a little differently. And the vast majority of the various republics, krais, oblasts, cities, and okrugs are quite weak in terms of domestic politics - decades rule from Moscow has done them no favors. Even if a handful like Tartarstan and the various Muslim republics, might have the organizational and political wherewithal to secede, they can't actually do so as long as there's a central government willing to stop them.

    tldr; Putin's exit might start processes that could eventually lead to a full Russian collapse, but it will not be a proximate cause of such a collapse. Russia will outlast Putin for some time, probably a decade or more.
    "In today’s America, conservatives who actually want to conserve are as rare as liberals who actually want to liberate. The once-significant language of an earlier era has had the meaning sucked right out of it, the better to serve as camouflage for a kleptocratic feeding frenzy in which both establishment parties participate with equal abandon" (Taking a break from the criminal, incompetent liars at the NSA, to bring you the above political observation, from The Archdruid Report.)

  10. #29210
    Quote Originally Posted by ringpriest View Post
    tldr; Putin's exit might start processes that could eventually lead to a full Russian collapse, but it will not be a proximate cause of such a collapse. Russia will outlast Putin for some time, probably a decade or more.
    I'd say that there should be a concern of Chinese irredentism in Outer Manchuria.

  11. #29211
    Quote Originally Posted by Zaydin View Post
    Just curious: What do people think the odds are of Russia utterly collapsing when Putin dies? He's spent decades arranging Russia as being incapable of functioning without him leading it, after all, and his successor will not have the same kind of influence he does. Wouldn't be the first country that had been ruled by a dictator for decades that fell apart when the dictator died; see also Tito and Yugoslavia.
    Yugoslavia has been constructed from several countries where Serbia was dominant but not overwhelming. Russia is 80% Russian and have lost most of the non-Russian parts of their empire; even the nominal ethnic republics within Russia are often majority Russian.

  12. #29212
    Quote Originally Posted by Flarelaine View Post
    Yugoslavia has been constructed from several countries where Serbia was dominant but not overwhelming. Russia is 80% Russian and have lost most of the non-Russian parts of their empire; even the nominal ethnic republics within Russia are often majority Russian.
    Thanks to organized effort by the Muscovites to genocide and destroy all other peoples and cultural identities besides the Soviet/Russian identity.

  13. #29213
    if i were a dictator i would simply enjoy my luxurious lifestyle and not risk my political future by engaging in a pointless war
    lets say hypothetically all of putins claims are true ( they arent) but if you steel man putins argument, what does it change if his borders expand, it dosent make him wealthier, it dosent make his country wealthier its just made up lines on a map he can say is russia, all its really done is made him very popular among us conservatives but unpopular to everyone else and kill a ton of people

  14. #29214
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arandomuser View Post
    if i were a dictator i would simply enjoy my luxurious lifestyle and not risk my political future by engaging in a pointless war
    lets say hypothetically all of putins claims are true ( they arent) but if you steel man putins argument, what does it change if his borders expand, it dosent make him wealthier, it dosent make his country wealthier, all its really done is made him very popular among us conservatives but unpopular to everyone else and kill a ton of people
    Sensible thinking is not how you get to become a dictator.

  15. #29215
    Quote Originally Posted by arandomuser View Post
    if i were a dictator i would simply enjoy my luxurious lifestyle and not risk my political future by engaging in a pointless war
    lets say hypothetically all of putins claims are true ( they arent) but if you steel man putins argument, what does it change if his borders expand, it dosent make him wealthier, it dosent make his country wealthier its just made up lines on a map he can say is russia, all its really done is made him very popular among us conservatives but unpopular to everyone else and kill a ton of people
    Wanting to be an Empire builder is not that absurd of a concept. Putin is just really bad at it.

  16. #29216
    The Lightbringer Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arandomuser View Post
    if i were a dictator i would simply enjoy my luxurious lifestyle and not risk my political future by engaging in a pointless war
    lets say hypothetically all of putins claims are true ( they arent) but if you steel man putins argument, what does it change if his borders expand, it dosent make him wealthier, it dosent make his country wealthier its just made up lines on a map he can say is russia, all its really done is made him very popular among us conservatives but unpopular to everyone else and kill a ton of people
    The Donbas has a truckton of oil and gas, as well as a boatload of heavy industry, so it would benefit russia to take it over, in that sense it does make russia wealthier. Not that the wealth would ever reach the regular population obviously.

  17. #29217
    Elemental Lord Makabreska's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arandomuser View Post
    if i were a dictator i would simply enjoy my luxurious lifestyle and not risk my political future by engaging in a pointless war
    lets say hypothetically all of putins claims are true ( they arent) but if you steel man putins argument, what does it change if his borders expand, it dosent make him wealthier, it dosent make his country wealthier its just made up lines on a map he can say is russia, all its really done is made him very popular among us conservatives but unpopular to everyone else and kill a ton of people
    Dude is a product of and was part of Soviet Russia. He has a huge Cold War trauma when he saw his empire collapse and loose satellite states. He then views it as a major injustice and wants to be remembered as a guy who "reunificated glorious USSR". Hence decades of strong-arming and military conflicts. Unfortunately, he will be remembered as a failure due this asinine and incompetent invasion caused by his "muh empire!" issues.
    Last edited by Makabreska; 2023-02-22 at 04:49 PM.
    Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.

  18. #29218
    Quote Originally Posted by arandomuser View Post
    if i were a dictator i would simply enjoy my luxurious lifestyle and not risk my political future by engaging in a pointless war
    lets say hypothetically all of putins claims are true ( they arent) but if you steel man putins argument, what does it change if his borders expand, it dosent make him wealthier, it dosent make his country wealthier its just made up lines on a map he can say is russia, all its really done is made him very popular among us conservatives but unpopular to everyone else and kill a ton of people
    One of the ways for a dictator to remain and strengthen their power is to create wars to distract the population from the troubles at home.
    And added bonus: wartime special conditions, like martial law.

  19. #29219
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I'd say that there should be a concern of Chinese irredentism in Outer Manchuria.
    I'd wager they'd rather try to get russia firmly under their thumb as a puppet, which at this point is a very real possibillity.

  20. #29220
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zorkuus View Post
    One of the ways for a dictator to remain and strengthen their power is to create wars to distract the population from the troubles at home.
    And added bonus: wartime special conditions, like martial law.
    Indeed. We saw that play out with Hitler, who did both. Putin's attempt to paint this whole thing over is, thankfully, not going nearly as well.

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