Russian invasion of Ukraine

[jonnysensible]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cia-dir...ia-lethal-aid/
https://www.voanews.com/a/us-sees-ev...a/6977611.html

Some citations since you're not caught up.

The United States has seen evidence that the People's Republic of China is considering sending lethal weapons to Russia for its use in the war in Ukraine, and has directly warned China of consequences, according to a senior State Department official.

"We obviously have a reason to be concerned," Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman told VOA in an interview on Thursday. She stopped short of elaborating on details when asked if there is evidence that Beijing is considering sending lethal aid to Moscow.

Sherman sat down with VOA State Department bureau chief Nike Ching on Thursday as Russia's war on Ukraine neared its one-year mark.

The State Department's second most senior official said the U.S. has warned China directly of consequences.

"If the People's Republic of China provides lethal support to Russia, then it becomes a co-belligerent in many ways, and … there would be consequences," Sherman told VOA.

so no then

[Corvus]

Considering is not the same as actually doing. I consider things on a daily basis but never do them. And right now, the last thing China wants is to get in a trade war given the problems they are having with their economy. And if they did send anything, it wouldn't take long for examples of it to fall into Ukrainian hands, and from there into Western hands. Do they really want people poking around in their vehicles etc to find out how bad they are?

And while this is going on, China released a new map, one in which they used Chinese names for regions of russia's far east, including reverting back to using the Chinese name for Vladivostok....

While things are difficult at Bakhmut, Ukraine has said they are moving fresh units there. Which means they haven't given up on it yet.

Plus more long range explosions are going on deep behind the lines. The latest is an airfield at Yesk, 150km+ from the frontlines. First russia said it was a training exercise before saying nothing happened at all. There has been an uptick in explosiosn behind the line, reminiscent of the shaping campaigns that went on prior to previous Ukrainian attacks.

Meanwhile, it has been some time since the last russian missile or Iranian drone attacks as well.

And this is amusing - little russia (aka Serbia), sold 3500 long range GRAD rockets to a 3rd party (Canada reportedly), who then shipped them to Ukraine.

[Gabriel]

the Russian ppl deserve a better leader, its such a shame the country was on the cusp of being a legitimate world player, they have so much land they could be leaders in renewable energy. its the largest single country on the planet and yet i'm sure it has one of the smallest population densities, they have so much space for things like solar and wind farms. they could be leading the charge. but instead they'd rather eat glue. worst yet it might not get better even if putin is gone. apparently we all hate russians and yet I watch https://www.youtube.com/@roman_nfkrz < romans videos quite frequently and have no ill will toward any average russian. it bothers me that putin spins the hatred aimed at him as a generalisation against all Russians. its pretty easy to dislike a single person without hating an entire population.

Every nation has the leader they deserve. Stop trying to excuse the Russian people.

- - - Updated - - -

I think that in due time that frozen tundra will become extremely valuable, if the global average temperature keeps rising those tundra's will turn into fertile plains. While the land of most of their neighbors desertifies more and more. creating their much desired buffer zone. The fact that Putin has shown zero interest toward developing inner Russia was always proof to me that the man didn't care for the future of his country. By weakening Russia the way Putin is doing right now he's not only destroying his own reputation but also setting up Russia for future conflicts.

That frozen tundra will never be fertile land, simply because their continental climate sucks ass for agriculture.

[Iphie]

.

"If the People's Republic of China provides lethal support to Russia, then it becomes a co-belligerent in many ways, and … there would be consequences," Sherman told VOA.

Ok, but this feels a bit hypocritical, I'm pretty sure no one here considers the west co-belligerents for providing lethal aid to Ukraine, so China providing lethal aid to russia shouldn't make them co-belligerents either. Shouldn't it?

[Kaleredar]

Ok, but this feels a bit hypocritical, I'm pretty sure no one here considers the west co-belligerents for providing lethal aid to Ukraine, so China providing lethal aid to russia shouldn't make them co-belligerents either. Shouldn't it?

I think China is far more... wary, in a way, of international backlash aimed at them for supporting Russia than any other country is about aiding Ukraine.

My impression of China's take going into this (Remember Putin priming Xi that it was going to happen) was that they mostly took Russia at its word that this was going to be a "three day war" and were prepared to look the other way expecting that the international blowback would be minimal and that business would continue on more or less as usual. That obviously did not happen.

And China's growing dissatisfaction at the disruption to international politics/commerce, the relative strengthening of NATO, and heightened international attention put on larger countries trying to subsume smaller ones has been palpable. Their support for Russia has been purely for show, as they've contributed absolutely diddly squat towards the war effort. @Shalcker liked to harp on what a strong alliance Russia and China had; I provided numerous sources directly from Chinese officials basically saying they knew Russia had fucked up the situation irreparably and had no good roads out (that Shalcker conveniently ignored repeatedly, leading me to assume I had touched on something quite damning.) So I doubt China wants to lay down in the bed Russia so thoroughly shat in, especially at this point.

And while "the west" is reliant upon China in many obvious ways, you could say the same for many European countries vis-a-vis Russia prior to this. Russia thought it had the greater EU basically paralyzed into inaction by their reliance upon Russian energy sources. That clearly turned out to be a rather poor estimation on Russia's part. And if the EU can undergo a major overhaul in their energy infrastructure in little over a year, who's to say what other countries could muster to cut China out of their reliances?


And frankly, China has no real reason to interject on Russia's behalf. As Russia weakens, China's regional power increases. I'm sure Russia will be needing bailouts for various industries and infrastructure in the coming decades, and China will be more than happy to leverage decidedly-predatory loans towards "helping" Russia back on its feet.

If anything this message is aimed at Russia more than China, to show how alone Russia is internationally because China isn't actually going to help them.

[Iphie]

Yeah, I was more hung up on the idea that helping one side would not make the aid suppliers co-belligerents, but helping the other side would. (as long as the aid consists of weapons and not men.)

Anyway, apparently Serbia is providing weapons to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/sta...37393182113816

https://www.serbianmonitor.com/en/ho...up-in-ukraine/

Not entirely sure how reliable these two are but there's more chatter about it on telegram.

[Nymrohd]

Yeah, I was more hung up on the idea that helping one side would not make the aid suppliers co-belligerents, but helping the other side would. (as long as the aid consists of weapons and not men.)

Anyway, apparently Serbia is providing weapons to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/sta...37393182113816

https://www.serbianmonitor.com/en/ho...up-in-ukraine/

Not entirely sure how reliable these two are but there's more chatter about it on telegram.

Yeah this makes no sense.

[Corvus]

Not Serbia itself, but a manufacturer which sold it to Canada who then shipped it on to Ukraine.

[Kallisto]

Even then the Serbian government had to be aware. It's not going to be blind to arms exports to a country that is openly supplying Ukraine would end up in Ukraine.

I'm guessing they're still pissed at Wagner advertising in Serbia.

[Flarelaine]

Serbia has been trying to get into the EU for some time. Helping Ukraine is a way of scoring points. And despite all their links to Russia, even they can see Russia is losing and will not be able to flex their muscle abroad if the West holds steady.

[Nymrohd]

Serbia has been trying to get into the EU for some time. Helping Ukraine is a way of scoring points. And despite all their links to Russia, even they can see Russia is losing and will not be able to flex their muscle abroad if the West holds steady.

No Serbian government could possibly spin a pro-NATO position any time this century.

[Iphie]

No Serbian government could possibly spin a pro-NATO position any time this century.

NATO =/= EU, very much intertwined, yes, but still not the same.

[Nymrohd]

NATO =/= EU, very much intertwined, yes, but still not the same.

When it comes to the war in Ukraine, military action is under NATO, not under EU though. EU does sanctions and non-military aid. And nuances do not survive in local politics.

[Strawberry]

not even 100 years later and history is repeating itself, instead of angry moustache man we got angry bloated dwarf. I can't even reconcile the propaganda machine has been churning out incredible round-about rationales. I suppose at a certain point you just decide what reality is but since its Russia I guess they have the most practice at this what with the soviet union being run the exact same way. 'ignore all the death, poverty and ppl being mass hauled off to siberia to break rocks into smaller rocks' 'everything is fine comrade'.

I find it funny that Putin seems to think the west is on a crusade to conquer Russia, no one wants that frozen tundra, only Russians have evolved to live in that refrigerator of a country. no country has been gearing up for conquest and no politician would last long in any European country if they tried to draft a Russia invasion force. no one wants a war with Russia and yet this is what they are being told. its extremely sad that ppl are dying for nothing worst yet it seems that they are being blatantly lied to and not in a sort of subtle way.

ironically if it comes to a war involving Nato, Russia is going to get obliterated. their paper tiger of a military has been hilariously out matched by Ukraine. they made themselves to look like girl scouts. they've set their economy back decades and have become the laughing stock of the entire world. even xi wants nothing to do with putin. it'll be very interesting to see how this ends. hopefully it doesn't go on for too many more years. this whole thing has got to go down as one of the greatest military blunders in recent history. imagine whelping 200,000 men and getting fuck all. what a shit show.

You do realize that if Russia wants, it can erase Ukraine from the face of the Earth?
And if NATO goes to war with Russia, many countries would be erased and not a corner of this world would be left untouched?
That is basically common sense. If NATO would take over Russia or vice versa is irrelevant when you consider the result from going to war.


Infracted.

[jonnysensible]

You do realize that if Russia wants, it can erase Ukraine from the face of the Earth?
And if NATO goes to war with Russia, many countries would be erased and not a corner of this world would be left untouched?
That is basically common sense. If NATO would take over Russia or vice versa is irrelevant when you consider the result from going to war.

if russia wants lmao, look at what it has achieved 100k dead and injured (and im lowballing) its a corrupt shithole. Putin wants to erase Ukraine and the best it could do was a ISIS style rape and murder quest with a bunch of troops so poor they are stealing washing machines and toilets.

Its a shithole that can't even get air superiority.

[s_bushido]

You do realize that if Russia wants, it can erase Ukraine from the face of the Earth?

lol... A year later and they still must not "want to." Please.

[Gabriel]

You do realize that if Russia wants, it can erase Ukraine from the face of the Earth?
And if NATO goes to war with Russia, many countries would be erased and not a corner of this world would be left untouched?
That is basically common sense. If NATO would take over Russia or vice versa is irrelevant when you consider the result from going to war.

So how mad are you that russia is getting pounded to the ground currently in Ukraine?

[zorkuus]

You do realize that if Russia wants, it can erase Ukraine from the face of the Earth?

AHAHAHAHAHA!! You guys...

Just like how ruZZki state media is saying that they never planned the special rapist operation to be over in just a few days due to "humanitarian reasons". Cope harder. No one is buying your bullshit. Who is it that you're trying to convince?

[zealo]

There is not in fact some much more professional army being held back by by Russia after this long. What you're seeing with your own two eyeballs is what the Russian armed forces are, devoid of competency as a result of Russia being run like a kleptocracy for decades, despite what Vatniks and others like them may want to believe.

[Xyonai]

You do realize that if Russia wants, it can erase Ukraine from the face of the Earth?
And if NATO goes to war with Russia, many countries would be erased and not a corner of this world would be left untouched?
That is basically common sense. If NATO would take over Russia or vice versa is irrelevant when you consider the result from going to war.

And yet, here we are. A year, thousands of destroyed war vehicals and tens of thousands of dead Russians later and they've been incapable of launching any meaningful offenses in the last eight months.

You could reply about 'o merciful Russia doesn't want to just obliterate poor wittle Urkaine' but their tactics on the ground have been hilariously abysmal since their initial push into the country. And the disparity is only getting worse as UA gets shinier new western defense systems and armored vehicals.

Russia's proven itself to be a fucking joke of a military power, even with Nuclear arms.