1. #29441
    Quote Originally Posted by Orange Joe View Post
    I mean they "could" it would just end up with the same happening to them. Which is why they won't go there.
    At this point I'm not so sure about their nukes either. Or about their competency to use theem.

  2. #29442
    I think escalation just prevents it, there was a video posted a bit back about the potential for them to drop a nuke but in reality even tactical nukes aren't really that tactically useful.

    likewise the russian army is barely capable of operating on a regular battlefield, they would be flatly unable to perform on a nuclear battlefield. putin is a bit of a nut case though so there is the uncertainty principle, based around him potentially doing anything but, it probably wouldn't pay off.

    Last edited by Heathy; 2023-03-01 at 06:42 PM.

  3. #29443
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kallisto View Post
    Even then the Serbian government had to be aware. It's not going to be blind to arms exports to a country that is openly supplying Ukraine would end up in Ukraine.

    I'm guessing they're still pissed at Wagner advertising in Serbia.
    You might be right.

  4. #29444

  5. #29445
    Quote Originally Posted by jonnysensible View Post
    Or the ruZZkies got stormtrooper aim.

  6. #29446
    russia was predicting a 2.9 trillion ruble deficit for the year. By the end of February they are already at 4 trillion. And thats going by the cooked figures. They can keep pumping money into the system to keep it going but that can't last forever.

    And nor can russia's supply of equipment. They have only one factory that can make tanks, and only 20 a month reportedly. Meanwhile they are loosing well over 100 a month. Down at Vuhledar, visual confirmed losses from their repeated failed attempts now stand at around 130 armoured vehicles. And they still keep trying.

  7. #29447
    Over 9000! ringpriest's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zorkuus View Post
    At this point I'm not so sure about their nukes either. Or about their competency to use theem.
    Their ICBMs and SLBMs were in iffy shape at the end of the Cold War. (America's were likely never as reliable as their generals liked to pretend either, but were certainly in better shape than the Soviet Union's by 1990.) What the actual reliability of both Russian delivery systems and warheads are like after a decade of Yeltsin and two decades of Putin, I cannot imagine.

    The catch, for any Russian opponent planning a counterforce first strike, is that there's no good way to know which ones will fail, so you still have to try and get everything and hope you can deal with whatever remnant actually launches.(Actually trying would be a roll of the dice with human civilization's survival riding on the outcome, and thus foolish in the extreme. IMNSHO.)

    The flip side is that Putin likely doesn't know either. (That's probably why we haven't seen a saber-rattling nuclear test on Kola Peninsula.) And if Russia tries a nuclear strike on Ukraine and it fails the value of the Russian strategic deterrent immediately collapses.
    "In today’s America, conservatives who actually want to conserve are as rare as liberals who actually want to liberate. The once-significant language of an earlier era has had the meaning sucked right out of it, the better to serve as camouflage for a kleptocratic feeding frenzy in which both establishment parties participate with equal abandon" (Taking a break from the criminal, incompetent liars at the NSA, to bring you the above political observation, from The Archdruid Report.)

  8. #29448
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
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    Nobody wants to find out, but given the corruption it is very unlikely that stuff has been properly maintained, and even the inspections under New START could have been faked. The last sentence is certainly one of two reasons not to attempt a nuke strike...well, one of 3 actually, but the third is not something the russians control:

    1. Order strike, fail miserably result: deterrent gone, putin gone
    2. Order strike, order refused result: putin gone.

    3. Order strike, order obeyed, strike succesful, NATO responds, putin gone.

    Any rational actor sees that using, or trying to use, nukes has more downsides that upsides.

  9. #29449
    Also, aside from the iffy state of the ICBM’s, it is not unlikely that the nuclear warheads themselves have not been sufficiently maintained.

    Those things can’t just be shelved, there goes a LOT into keeping them full of big boom potential

  10. #29450
    We cannot really prevent posters from dropping "NUKES!" in the thread occassionally, but please move back to discussing actual events.

  11. #29451
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
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    Something is going down in Briansk, Rosguard deployed with MLRS GRAD against...*checks notes*...the Russian Volunteer Corps?

  12. #29452
    Man, this stinks of false flag - a group of men looking far too clean and with far too much yellow tape on have occupied villages on the russian side of the border, taken hostages and videoed themselves calling for an 'uprising.' They haven't even hidden their faces. And like clockwork there are calls in russia for a response to the 'attack' to declare a full scale war against the 'terrorist regime that has occupied Ukraine.'
    Last edited by Corvus; 2023-03-02 at 12:17 PM.

  13. #29453
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Man, this stinks of false flag - a group of men looking far too clean and with far too much yellow tape on have occupied villages on the russian side of the border, taken hostages and videoed themselves calling for an 'uprising.' They haven't even hidden their faces. And like clockwork there are calls in russia for a response to the 'attack' to declare a full scale war against the 'terrorist regime that has occupied Ukraine.'
    nah its legit they are just from the russian volunteer corps, looks like they popped across the border took pictures and went back.

  14. #29454
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
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    Russians be smoking again apparently:

    Military Il-76MD aircraft exploded during test at the plant in Ulyanovsk killing 1, wounding 5 more engineers
    Source is livemap linking to a russian telegram channel.

    (included for the sake of completeness: https://t.me/bazabazon/16139)

  15. #29455
    Something appears to have gone bang near Moscow. Given this is russia, it might be unrelated given how often things catch fire. But it is also the site of a lot of military manufacturing of rockets and the like.

    The 'incident' in Bryansk has been labeled 'terrorism' by pootie even though nothing really happened. Still smells a it fishy, given the group involved isn't associated with the Ukrainian military and oppose pootie because they don't think he is extreme enough. It also only has about 50 members - most russians fighting against russian aren't in it. Their stated goal is a russian ethnostate ruled by the czars again.

  16. #29456
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Something appears to have gone bang near Moscow. Given this is russia, it might be unrelated given how often things catch fire.

    The 'incident' in Bryansk has been labeled 'terrorism' by pootie even though nothing really happened. Still smells a it fishy, given the group involved isn't associated with the Ukrainian military and oppose pootie because they don't think he is extreme enough. It also only has about 50 members - most russians fighting against russian aren't in it. There stated goal is a russian ethnostate ruled by the czars again.
    ....I...what? A case of, the enemy of my enemy is...not my friend, then?

  17. #29457
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Something appears to have gone bang near Moscow. Given this is russia, it might be unrelated given how often things catch fire. But it is also the site of a lot of military manufacturing of rockets and the like.

    The 'incident' in Bryansk has been labeled 'terrorism' by pootie even though nothing really happened. Still smells a it fishy, given the group involved isn't associated with the Ukrainian military and oppose pootie because they don't think he is extreme enough. It also only has about 50 members - most russians fighting against russian aren't in it. Their stated goal is a russian ethnostate ruled by the czars again.
    Uh...Gary Oldman from Air Force One?

    Also, are these the folks that Putin is saying are apparently Ukrainian saboteurs or something? I saw a headline about him complaining about Ukrainians maybe blowing something up deep in Russian territory and was like...why would you complain about that? Isn't that a bit embarassing?

  18. #29458
    The Lightbringer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    ....I...what? A case of, the enemy of my enemy is...not my friend, then?
    I say let the fascist idiots kill each-other; they're too numerically small to make any real change to the country so not worried about them getting hands on Ruskie Nukes, but given Russia's military aptitude these fifty guys might be able to remain a thorn in Putin's side for a good long while.

  19. #29459
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Uh...Gary Oldman from Air Force One?

    Also, are these the folks that Putin is saying are apparently Ukrainian saboteurs or something? I saw a headline about him complaining about Ukrainians maybe blowing something up deep in Russian territory and was like...why would you complain about that? Isn't that a bit embarassing?
    Now to be fair, Putin doesn't have a lot of narrative options when something within Russia's borders explode. He can either say it was:

    1) Ukrainians, implying they are strong enough to reach within Russia to deal damage to Russia directly
    2) Internal Russian resistance, implying that not all of Russia is going along with Putin's grand plan and that they exist in sizeable enough numbers to inflict harm in Russia
    3) An accident, implying Russian incompetence


    None of these really fit the "Russia stronk" narrative. At least the "it was Ukraine" talking point keeps Russian attention focused on fighting Ukraine.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  20. #29460

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