1. #30081
    Herald of the Titans enigma77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    I thought Crimea was the red line for Putin - one even the US ill-advised Ukraine to consider retaking - , but today Ukraine ominously warned Russians to leave it in peace or prepare for huge battle.

    KYIV — Ukraine has not changed its plans for the return of territory occupied by Russia, including Crimea.

    “Ukraine will choose the way to bring Crimea back, using political and military means,” Tamila Tasheva, the Ukrainian president’s envoy on Crimea, told POLITICO.

    “To minimize Ukrainian military losses, minimize threats to civilians who live in occupied territories, as well as the destruction of civilian infrastructure, Ukraine plans to give Russia a choice on how to leave Crimea. If they don’t agree to leave voluntarily, Ukraine will continue to liberate its land by military means,” Tasheva added.

    Her comments come after Andriy Sybiha, deputy head of the president’s office, gave an interview to the Financial Times in which he said Ukraine might be ready to discuss the future of Crimea with Moscow if Kyiv succeeds in achieving its strategic goals on the battlefield.

    Of note:

    His planned proposals include the forced relocation of all Russian citizens who moved to Crimea after 2014
    Putin's red lines are a joke, which should be obvious by now. His kingdom of murderers and thieves has no desire to self-destruct in a nuclear holocaust.

  2. #30082
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by enigma77 View Post
    Putin's red lines are a joke, which should be obvious by now. His kingdom of murderers and thieves has no desire to self-destruct in a nuclear holocaust.
    It's honestly up in the air as to whether they even have nuclear capable anythings anyway.

    Their latest show of strength missile test ended in a hilarious failure. I think North Korea currently has them beat in ICBM capabilities, and that's not high praise for NK.

  3. #30083
    Scarab Lord Zaydin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Belize View Post
    It's honestly up in the air as to whether they even have nuclear capable anythings anyway.

    Their latest show of strength missile test ended in a hilarious failure. I think North Korea currently has them beat in ICBM capabilities, and that's not high praise for NK.
    The problem is that no one wants to risk poking the toothless Russian bear just in case enough of their nukes still work to cause serious damage.
    "If you are ever asking yourself 'Is Trump lying or is he stupid?', the answer is most likely C: All of the Above" - Seth Meyers

  4. #30084
    the US once said it would not stop Ukraine from trying to retake Crimea - thus implying there would in fact not be global repercussions (i.e, nukes) but stated it isn't a good move.

    I think it's not a good move because conventionally, Crimea is where Russia would make its biggest stand. And we saw how brutal Bahkmut was conventionally.
    "Truth...justice, honor, freedom! Vain indulgences, every one(...) I know what I want, and I take it. I take advantage of whatever I can, and discard that which I cannot. There is no room for sentiment or guilt."

  5. #30085
    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    the US once said it would not stop Ukraine from trying to retake Crimea - thus implying there would in fact not be global repercussions (i.e, nukes) but stated it isn't a good move.

    I think it's not a good move because conventionally, Crimea is where Russia would make its biggest stand. And we saw how brutal Bahkmut was conventionally.
    If Ukraine really wants to take Crimea, they just have to bomb the bridge and the rats will try to swim across to escape.

  6. #30086
    Confirmed losses of russian vehicles and heavy equipment on Oryx have now hit 10,000.

  7. #30087
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    If Ukraine really wants to take Crimea, they just have to bomb the bridge and the rats will try to swim across to escape.
    Having looked at the situation and seen analyses I'm pretty sure that's the ticket indeed: cut off the main roads in Kherson, destroy the Kerch bridge and just wait.

  8. #30088
    This leak seems to have been pretty major. It might possibly have been done by some traitor with a pro-russian agenda wanting to sow mistrust between the West. Or it could have been done to win an internet debate. Either way someone is going to jail for a long time.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...h-massive-leak

    A good look of some of what was in it. Ukraine has fired off almost 10000 himars rockets, or almost 20% of all made and have outfitted 9 new brigades for the upcoming counter-offensive. More than 2000 russian tanks have been destroyed and they have only around 400 total left in Ukraine, with another 500 in reserve. Hence the 1955 tanks being reactivated.

    And the reticence for supplying atacms and other long range weapons is because of the very real fear if something major in russia got hit then China would solve all russia's ammo problems.

  9. #30089
    Im reading theres evidence that several of the leaked documents were “edited”. Therefore the narrative that this was meant to sow doubts with the west populace is likely.

    That also means that doom and gloom messages about ukraine, and subsequent “postive” messaging about russian losses should be taken with a very hefty grain of salt.

  10. #30090
    Quote Originally Posted by Veggie50 View Post
    Im reading theres evidence that several of the leaked documents were “edited”. Therefore the narrative that this was meant to sow doubts with the west populace is likely.

    That also means that doom and gloom messages about ukraine, and subsequent “postive” messaging about russian losses should be taken with a very hefty grain of salt.
    nah they are legit

  11. #30091
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    then China would solve all russia's ammo problems.
    I'm not sure China would do that. Every piece of chinese ammo that ruSSia wastes is a piece missing in a potential conflict over Taiwan. Not saying China actually wants to fight a war of their own but they very much must have plans for it.

  12. #30092
    Quote Originally Posted by jonnysensible View Post
    nah they are legit
    Says you?

    Correcting from 200k enemy deaths to 17k enemy deaths while oryx agrees with the 200k sounds like propaganda.

    Also, prepping a new 400k mobilization after a previous 300k mobilization does not equate to 17k dead.

    The aerial fotos of wagners (not entire russian army, just wagners) cemetery do not equate to just 17k dead.

    Whoever leaked these documents is anti west/ukraine. OF COURSE they altered them. I bet the correction was from 200k to 170k, but they edited out the 0 in 170.

  13. #30093
    Quote Originally Posted by Veggie50 View Post
    Says you?

    Correcting from 200k enemy deaths to 17k enemy deaths while oryx agrees with the 200k sounds like propaganda.

    Also, prepping a new 400k mobilization after a previous 300k mobilization does not equate to 17k dead.

    The aerial fotos of wagners (not entire russian army, just wagners) cemetery do not equate to just 17k dead.

    Whoever leaked these documents is anti west/ukraine. OF COURSE they altered them. I bet the correction was from 200k to 170k, but they edited out the 0 in 170.
    dunno where you are reading stuff but :

    https://twitter.com/AricToler/status...67282680553472
    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2023...-defence-leak/

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/w...ts-us-war.html
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/u...mid=tw-nytimes

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-det...mobilewebshare

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65225985

    etc etc

    the files were leaked in some nerd discord, then someone did a bad edit and put them on the russian channels. Original files were legit.

    have to wait and see now if the ukranians fucked up not falling back from bahkmut or not.

  14. #30094
    Over 9000! zealo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Veggie50 View Post
    Says you?

    Correcting from 200k enemy deaths to 17k enemy deaths while oryx agrees with the 200k sounds like propaganda.

    Also, prepping a new 400k mobilization after a previous 300k mobilization does not equate to 17k dead.

    The aerial fotos of wagners (not entire russian army, just wagners) cemetery do not equate to just 17k dead.

    Whoever leaked these documents is anti west/ukraine. OF COURSE they altered them. I bet the correction was from 200k to 170k, but they edited out the 0 in 170.
    Do bear in mind a casualty in military terms isn't necessarily a straight up death, but can also be wounds that renders someone incapable of even attempting to continue taking part in combat, even though they made it out still alive.

    That said, 17k is likely to be far too low for the intensity of the war going on, but how much the one releasing these documents may be altering numbers there's no way to tell. Also, the 17k being Russian losses were flipped in an obvious edit someone did later, the earlier release pins that as Ukrainian ones.

    It could also just be a straight up psy-ops targeted at Russia in the vein of e.g Operation Mincemeat, which we have no way of knowing.
    Last edited by zealo; 2023-04-10 at 02:24 PM.

  15. #30095
    it's not really new per se, but now Putin has a reputation internationally as a child predator for the abduction and indiscriminate mass murder of kids. It's steadily being more emphasized compared to how I thought it'd be brushed off early on (which it was here, when I posted the twitter log).

    A coalition was established today to save these children.
    "Truth...justice, honor, freedom! Vain indulgences, every one(...) I know what I want, and I take it. I take advantage of whatever I can, and discard that which I cannot. There is no room for sentiment or guilt."

  16. #30096
    My take on it is that these leaks can be ignored. Reading both pro-US and pro-Russia sources leads me to believe that whatever the leaks say, there will be a US directed offensive in a month or so (when the mud dries up enough and forces are in place), and a Russian counter offensive will follow in a few months.

    Last year was a Russian offensive that gained about 24% of Ukraine followed by a US counter offensive that took about 4% back. Win for Russia.

    Winter was the battle for Soledar and Bakhmut. From a land standpoint, minor gains for Russia. However, well fortified and well defended strongholds were taken (Bakhmut has not yet totally been taken).

    Russia is preparing for US/NATO to have between 500 and 2000 tanks, many many Bradley's, full air and artillery support, and well over 100k troops. They are expecting to be attacked on two or even three fronts.

    The Russians seem to believe that these types of leaks are meant to get Russia to underestimate the US/NATO forces that will be attacking, and not prepare properly.
    Last edited by Omega10; 2023-04-10 at 06:54 PM.

  17. #30097
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    My take on it is that these leaks can be ignored. Reading both pro-US and pro-Russia sources leads me to believe that whatever the leaks say, there will be a US directed offensive in a month or so (when the mud dries up enough and forces are in place), and a Russian counter offensive will follow in a few months.

    Last year was a Russian offensive that gained about 24% of Ukraine followed by a US counter offensive that took about 4% back. Win for Russia.

    Winter was the battle for Soledar and Bakhmut. From a land standpoint, minor gains for Russia. However, well fortified and well defended strongholds were taken (Bakhmut has not yet totally been taken).

    Russia is preparing for US/NATO to have between 500 and 2000 tanks, many many Bradley's, full air and artillery support, and well over 100k troops. They are expecting to be attacked on two or even three fronts.

    The Russians seem to believe that these types of leaks are meant to get Russia to underestimate the US/NATO forces that will be attacking, and not prepare properly.
    The hell are you on? The US and NATO forces are not in Ukraine, and will NOT lead anything in Ukraine.

  18. #30098
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    My take on it is that these leaks can be ignored. Reading both pro-US and pro-Russia sources leads me to believe that whatever the leaks say, there will be a US directed offensive in a month or so (when the mud dries up enough and forces are in place), and a Russian counter offensive will follow in a few months.

    Last year was a Russian offensive that gained about 24% of Ukraine followed by a US counter offensive that took about 4% back. Win for Russia.

    Winter was the battle for Soledar and Bakhmut. From a land standpoint, minor gains for Russia. However, well fortified and well defended strongholds were taken (Bakhmut has not yet totally been taken).

    Russia is preparing for US/NATO to have between 500 and 2000 tanks, many many Bradley's, full air and artillery support, and well over 100k troops. They are expecting to be attacked on two or even three fronts.

    The Russians seem to believe that these types of leaks are meant to get Russia to underestimate the US/NATO forces that will be attacking, and not prepare properly.
    the leaks shouldnt be ignored. They show the US penetration of Russian forces/information and key things about the Ukrainian forces.

    why would you read propaganda?

    The US are providing intel and arms, they aren't directing any offensives. Thats all ukranian. (wording : russian only launches offensives, ukraine only launches counter offensives because they are the ones being invaded).

    Ukranian strategy was to give up land for attrition, which they did. Wouldn't call it a win.

    Yup winter was russias failed offensive, you could measure the line movement with a yard stick, they have also heavily depleted their manpower, artillery and missile stocks.

    The US/Nato are not active in Ukraine, its jut Ukrainians.

  19. #30099
    Scarab Lord Zaydin's Avatar
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    "If you are ever asking yourself 'Is Trump lying or is he stupid?', the answer is most likely C: All of the Above" - Seth Meyers

  20. #30100
    Quote Originally Posted by Zaydin View Post

    I can't say I'd want to be El-Sisi right now.
    why hes fine, we play buddy with dictators when it suits us.

    the world wont be safe until every dictatorship is killed

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