Russian invasion of Ukraine

[jonnysensible]

Im reading theres evidence that several of the leaked documents were “edited”. Therefore the narrative that this was meant to sow doubts with the west populace is likely.

That also means that doom and gloom messages about ukraine, and subsequent “postive” messaging about russian losses should be taken with a very hefty grain of salt.

nah they are legit

[Twdft]

then China would solve all russia's ammo problems.

I'm not sure China would do that. Every piece of chinese ammo that ruSSia wastes is a piece missing in a potential conflict over Taiwan. Not saying China actually wants to fight a war of their own but they very much must have plans for it.

[Veggie50]

nah they are legit

Says you?

Correcting from 200k enemy deaths to 17k enemy deaths while oryx agrees with the 200k sounds like propaganda.

Also, prepping a new 400k mobilization after a previous 300k mobilization does not equate to 17k dead.

The aerial fotos of wagners (not entire russian army, just wagners) cemetery do not equate to just 17k dead.

Whoever leaked these documents is anti west/ukraine. OF COURSE they altered them. I bet the correction was from 200k to 170k, but they edited out the 0 in 170.

[jonnysensible]

Says you?

Correcting from 200k enemy deaths to 17k enemy deaths while oryx agrees with the 200k sounds like propaganda.

Also, prepping a new 400k mobilization after a previous 300k mobilization does not equate to 17k dead.

The aerial fotos of wagners (not entire russian army, just wagners) cemetery do not equate to just 17k dead.

Whoever leaked these documents is anti west/ukraine. OF COURSE they altered them. I bet the correction was from 200k to 170k, but they edited out the 0 in 170.

dunno where you are reading stuff but :

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status...67282680553472
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2023...-defence-leak/

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/w...ts-us-war.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/u...mid=tw-nytimes

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-det...mobilewebshare

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65225985

etc etc

the files were leaked in some nerd discord, then someone did a bad edit and put them on the russian channels. Original files were legit.

have to wait and see now if the ukranians fucked up not falling back from bahkmut or not.

[zealo]

Says you?

Correcting from 200k enemy deaths to 17k enemy deaths while oryx agrees with the 200k sounds like propaganda.

Also, prepping a new 400k mobilization after a previous 300k mobilization does not equate to 17k dead.

The aerial fotos of wagners (not entire russian army, just wagners) cemetery do not equate to just 17k dead.

Whoever leaked these documents is anti west/ukraine. OF COURSE they altered them. I bet the correction was from 200k to 170k, but they edited out the 0 in 170.

Do bear in mind a casualty in military terms isn't necessarily a straight up death, but can also be wounds that renders someone incapable of even attempting to continue taking part in combat, even though they made it out still alive.

That said, 17k is likely to be far too low for the intensity of the war going on, but how much the one releasing these documents may be altering numbers there's no way to tell. Also, the 17k being Russian losses were flipped in an obvious edit someone did later, the earlier release pins that as Ukrainian ones.

It could also just be a straight up psy-ops targeted at Russia in the vein of e.g Operation Mincemeat, which we have no way of knowing.

[YUPPIE]

it's not really new per se, but now Putin has a reputation internationally as a child predator for the abduction and indiscriminate mass murder of kids. It's steadily being more emphasized compared to how I thought it'd be brushed off early on (which it was here, when I posted the twitter log).

A coalition was established today to save these children.

[Omega10]

My take on it is that these leaks can be ignored. Reading both pro-US and pro-Russia sources leads me to believe that whatever the leaks say, there will be a US directed offensive in a month or so (when the mud dries up enough and forces are in place), and a Russian counter offensive will follow in a few months.

Last year was a Russian offensive that gained about 24% of Ukraine followed by a US counter offensive that took about 4% back. Win for Russia.

Winter was the battle for Soledar and Bakhmut. From a land standpoint, minor gains for Russia. However, well fortified and well defended strongholds were taken (Bakhmut has not yet totally been taken).

Russia is preparing for US/NATO to have between 500 and 2000 tanks, many many Bradley's, full air and artillery support, and well over 100k troops. They are expecting to be attacked on two or even three fronts.

The Russians seem to believe that these types of leaks are meant to get Russia to underestimate the US/NATO forces that will be attacking, and not prepare properly.

[Iphie]

My take on it is that these leaks can be ignored. Reading both pro-US and pro-Russia sources leads me to believe that whatever the leaks say, there will be a US directed offensive in a month or so (when the mud dries up enough and forces are in place), and a Russian counter offensive will follow in a few months.

Last year was a Russian offensive that gained about 24% of Ukraine followed by a US counter offensive that took about 4% back. Win for Russia.

Winter was the battle for Soledar and Bakhmut. From a land standpoint, minor gains for Russia. However, well fortified and well defended strongholds were taken (Bakhmut has not yet totally been taken).

Russia is preparing for US/NATO to have between 500 and 2000 tanks, many many Bradley's, full air and artillery support, and well over 100k troops. They are expecting to be attacked on two or even three fronts.

The Russians seem to believe that these types of leaks are meant to get Russia to underestimate the US/NATO forces that will be attacking, and not prepare properly.

The hell are you on? The US and NATO forces are not in Ukraine, and will NOT lead anything in Ukraine.

[jonnysensible]

My take on it is that these leaks can be ignored. Reading both pro-US and pro-Russia sources leads me to believe that whatever the leaks say, there will be a US directed offensive in a month or so (when the mud dries up enough and forces are in place), and a Russian counter offensive will follow in a few months.

Last year was a Russian offensive that gained about 24% of Ukraine followed by a US counter offensive that took about 4% back. Win for Russia.

Winter was the battle for Soledar and Bakhmut. From a land standpoint, minor gains for Russia. However, well fortified and well defended strongholds were taken (Bakhmut has not yet totally been taken).

Russia is preparing for US/NATO to have between 500 and 2000 tanks, many many Bradley's, full air and artillery support, and well over 100k troops. They are expecting to be attacked on two or even three fronts.

The Russians seem to believe that these types of leaks are meant to get Russia to underestimate the US/NATO forces that will be attacking, and not prepare properly.

the leaks shouldnt be ignored. They show the US penetration of Russian forces/information and key things about the Ukrainian forces.

why would you read propaganda?

The US are providing intel and arms, they aren't directing any offensives. Thats all ukranian. (wording : russian only launches offensives, ukraine only launches counter offensives because they are the ones being invaded).

Ukranian strategy was to give up land for attrition, which they did. Wouldn't call it a win.

Yup winter was russias failed offensive, you could measure the line movement with a yard stick, they have also heavily depleted their manpower, artillery and missile stocks.

The US/Nato are not active in Ukraine, its jut Ukrainians.

[Zaydin]

So apparently leaked US intelligence shows that Egypt was planning on producing 40,000 rockets and other forms of artillery for Russia and tried to keep it a secret in order to avoid problems with the West.

I can't say I'd want to be El-Sisi right now.

[jonnysensible]

I can't say I'd want to be El-Sisi right now.

why hes fine, we play buddy with dictators when it suits us.

the world wont be safe until every dictatorship is killed

[Zaydin]

why hes fine, we play buddy with dictators when it suits us.

the world wont be safe until every dictatorship is killed

Because Egypt gets a billion dollars a year in military aid from the US and nothing is more likely to see it suspended or revoked than Egypt helping fuel Russias genocidal war of conquest in Ukraine.

[Omega10]

Why read Russian propaganda? To get their perspective. A lot of it mirrors US discussions except that it's the heroic Russian attacks vs US / NATO / Ukrainian terrorist attacks instead of vica versa. They go into a lot more detail about military details - lots of Skroe type people.

They are thankful that our production of HIMAR missiles is so low. I read multiple Skroe like articles describing in detail how they work and why they are so effective. THAT they are in awe of.

Their insistence that the US has a shortage of artillery shells has been confirmed by the US Secretary of Defense in Defense One, a US pro-military site from what I can tell.

They concern themselves more with trade relations than Americans do, and in making the switch to being an Asian nation instead of a European one. Sanctions will effectively be permanent as they are replacing their US / European markets with other nations. Making the ruble not rubble is a prime concern.

As has been stated here multiple times, Americans believe that all Russians are subhuman orcs, and need to be punished for their behavior. Russians place the blame for what they consider US atrocities on the US/UK big banks. We bailed them out in 2008 as we view them as the best and brightest and most successful people in the world, while they view them as villains.

There are other interesting differences. This is just what I came up with off the top of my head

[Kaleredar]

As has been stated here multiple times, Americans believe that all Russians are subhuman orcs, and need to be punished for their behavior. Russians place the blame for what they consider US atrocities on the US/UK big banks. We bailed them out in 2008 as we view them as the best and brightest and most successful people in the world, while they view them as villains.

Yeah except only one country is forcing their people to go out and die in a foreign country for that supposition currently, and it ain't the UK/US.

[Azadina]

As has been stated here multiple times, Americans believe that all Russians are subhuman orcs, and need to be punished for their behavior.

"If the shoe fits..." and all. Who's fault is it that RuZZia specifically tailors those fitted shoes for themselves? No one else but RuZZia. They could stop being the largest terrorist state in human history any time they feel like, but never have they shown any willingness to consider being something else.

[jonnysensible]

Why read Russian propaganda? To get their perspective.

if you are saying things like US/NATO forces are attacking i'd suggest taking in a bit less.

[DarkTZeratul]

if you are saying things like US/NATO forces are attacking i'd suggest taking in a bit less.

Yeah, the whole "we're at war with NATO" thing is itself 100% Russian propaganda.

[Veggie50]

My take on it is that these leaks can be ignored. Reading both pro-US and pro-Russia sources leads me to believe that whatever the leaks say, there will be a US directed offensive in a month or so (when the mud dries up enough and forces are in place), and a Russian counter offensive will follow in a few months.

Last year was a Russian offensive that gained about 24% of Ukraine followed by a US counter offensive that took about 4% back. Win for Russia.

Winter was the battle for Soledar and Bakhmut. From a land standpoint, minor gains for Russia. However, well fortified and well defended strongholds were taken (Bakhmut has not yet totally been taken).

Russia is preparing for US/NATO to have between 500 and 2000 tanks, many many Bradley's, full air and artillery support, and well over 100k troops. They are expecting to be attacked on two or even three fronts.

The Russians seem to believe that these types of leaks are meant to get Russia to underestimate the US/NATO forces that will be attacking, and not prepare properly.

You see the events of last year as a win for russia?

[Nymrohd]

Yeah, the whole "we're at war with NATO" thing is itself 100% Russian propaganda.

To play devil's advocate, if China openly supplied Russia with not just ammo but tanks, armed vehicles, training, financial support, would we not say we are at war with China?

[Veggie50]

To play devil's advocate, if China openly supplied Russia with not just ammo but tanks, armed vehicles, training, financial support, would we not say we are at war with China?

It’s a good question, but actually no…

During the cold war people didn’t say the USA was at war with Russia. They were are war with vietnam, north korea, afghanistan… but not with Russia.

Are we in a cold war with Russia now? Hmmm maybe kinda sorta, but it’s still a very cold war then.