Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Zaydin]

Which would be odd, as Zelenskyy apparently just said they're delaying, faints, misdirections and obfuscations...

edit: but yes, there seems to be some movement where wankers flee and rf units surrender.

If you were a day or two away from launching a counteroffensive would you be advertising it to the world?

Like I said, take it all with a grain of salt for now since I haven't seen reputable sources reporting on it yet, just Twitter posts or stuff on the Ukrainian Conflict subreddit.

[Corvus]

The talk is all coming from the russian side. It would be a gutsy move launching the counter-attack at Bakhmut where russia has its heaviest concentration of troops.

It's is possibly just some small localised attacks taking and the russians are playing it up so they can then claim to have stopped the counter-offensive in a day ir two.

[YUPPIE]

the Ukrainians are very emboldened by this point. They don't care about Putin's wrath or what he *may* do. So they probably won't stop now until they retake all their land.

[Corvus]

That's because there is really nothing left pootie can do. There are no secret weapons or armies. His best is gone.

The russians seem to reporting attacks in three separate locations which makes me think these are just part of the shaping, trying to keep russia guessing and to get them to rush reinforcements in to those locations so that they aren't available when the real attack goes off. I don't think it is likely Ukraine would split its attack across so many fronts - there is a limit to how many units they have for the attack.

[jonnysensible]

That's because there is really nothing left pootie can do. There are no secret weapons or armies. His best is gone.

The russians seem to reporting attacks in three separate locations which makes me think these are just part of the shaping, trying to keep russia guessing and to get them to rush reinforcements in to those locations so that they aren't available when the real attack goes off. I don't think it is likely Ukraine would split its attack across so many fronts - there is a limit to how many units they have for the attack.

the logical thinking is that they are using troops who will not make up the main offensive to pressure bahkmut's flanks in order to pin russian forces that are there and draw more troops.

Girkin is crying about the flanks being undermanned and under equip.

This could just be exploiting local conditions.

[Zaydin]

Welp, the BBC is now reporting on the situation around Bakhmut so this could be the real deal. Either that or it was an intended feint to draw Russian troops off from elsewhere that is more successful than they had planned on; we'll find out.

Russia is, of course, denying that Ukraine has made any advances while the war criminal running WAgner is claiming regular Russian army units fled and opened up big gaps in the Russian lines.

[Flarelaine]

The talk is all coming from the russian side. It would be a gutsy move launching the counter-attack at Bakhmut where russia has its heaviest concentration of troops.

It's is possibly just some small localised attacks taking and the russians are playing it up so they can then claim to have stopped the counter-offensive in a day ir two.

I see no obvious gain in clearing up around Bakhmut, but they may have simply noticed the Russians there crumbling from the strain.

[Zaydin]

I see no obvious gain in clearing up around Bakhmut, but they may have simply noticed the Russians there crumbling from the strain.

It would be a major political blow to Putin given how much manpower and materiel he has wasted trying to take a city that holds no strategic significance.

If the Russian military was forced to flee for their lives from Bakhmut it'd be hard for him to defend the senseless slaughter he ordered his troops into for months once they got driven out with nothing to show for it.

Honestly, part of me feels like the most likely way this war ends is that Putin gets overthrown in a coup and whoever replaces him hopes to offer him up to Ukraine as part of a peace deal.

[Nymrohd]

It would be a major political blow to Putin given how much manpower and materiel he has wasted trying to take a city that holds no strategic significance.

If the Russian military was forced to flee for their lives from Bakhmut it'd be hard for him to defend the senseless slaughter he ordered his troops into for months once they got driven out with nothing to show for it.

Honestly, part of me feels like the most likely way this war ends is that Putin gets overthrown in a coup and whoever replaces him hopes to offer him up to Ukraine as part of a peace deal.

Defend it to whom though?

[Iphie]

Defend it to whom though?

The population. Look I know the trope is that putin can do whatever he wants and nobody can do anything against him, but just a cursory glance at the kremlin state propaganda channels tells a bit of a different story, they are in damage control mode, you don't do that unless you fear something or someone.

Recently one of the channels was openly asking what a win condition for russia looks like, and complaining that they didn't know when it was easy for Ukraine: kick out russia.

putin is deathly afraid of the true cost becoming public knowledge that's why casualty numbers are a state secret.

[Flarelaine]

Putin might seem to be super unassailable, but he's taking pains to not go all out on conscription. Especially in major population centers where people are better informed and perhaps organised. He is trying to fill the ranks from the boonies, ethnic republics and other far-flung regions.

[Iphie]

Chinese official to visit Ukraine

Well, not holding my breath but we'll see what this brings.

[The Stormbringer]

the Ukrainians are very emboldened by this point. They don't care about Putin's wrath or what he *may* do. So they probably won't stop now until they retake all their land.

Sounds good to me!

[Iphie]

More and more rumblings about Bakhmut, the russian MoD now calls it a "tactical regroup of their forces". Prig is whining of course.

[YUPPIE]

Has it ever been factually explained why, from mid 2022 to now, there's a fire in Moscow every so often

Tyre warehouses are on fire in the town of Dzerzhinskii in Moscow Oblast. The flames have engulfed an area of 2,500 square metres.

Source: Russian media outlets Vechernyaya Moskva, Moscow 24, Radio-1 and RIA Novosti, with reference to comments from Russian emergency services

Details: According to media reports, a warehouse containing tyres is on fire in Sadovaya street, not far from a shopping centre.

RIA Novosti reports that the fire has engulfed 2,500 square metres. According to Moscow 24, a building belonging to a recycling plant is on fire.

Emergency services are working at the scene.

[Kallisto]

Has it ever been factually explained why, from mid 2022 to now, there's a fire in Moscow every so often

Tyre warehouses are on fire in the town of Dzerzhinskii in Moscow Oblast. The flames have engulfed an area of 2,500 square metres.

Source: Russian media outlets Vechernyaya Moskva, Moscow 24, Radio-1 and RIA Novosti, with reference to comments from Russian emergency services

Details: According to media reports, a warehouse containing tyres is on fire in Sadovaya street, not far from a shopping centre.

RIA Novosti reports that the fire has engulfed 2,500 square metres. According to Moscow 24, a building belonging to a recycling plant is on fire.

Emergency services are working at the scene.

Increased reporting
People who are supposed to be doing maintenance are being pushed to the front.

[Elder Millennial]

It seems Yuppie was PARTIALLY right about this.

While the South Africans haven't aligned themselves with Russia, they seem to have made a weapons shipment to Russia. It also seems the US has kinda had it with the SA government's bullshit. Meanwhile the South African government isn't denying the accusation, but nor is it confirming it..."It's launching an investigation into it." It's launching an investigation into what a massive Russian cargo ship docked for weeks at a South African naval base was doing... (Note South Africa's defense industry is mostly state owned).

There's some panic in South Africa about possible US sanctions, and the South African Rand took a nose dive, tho it was already taking a beating from the ongoing power outages.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-we...ddf5d892e44f85

[YUPPIE]

just gonna reiterate what I said before:

Russia's militaristic allies: China, Iran, Syria, North Korea, and South Africa.

[Elder Millennial]

just gonna reiterate what I said before:

Russia's militaristic allies: China, Iran, Syria, North Korea, and South Africa.

Don't get ahead of yourself.

As far as we are really aware, China hasn't supplied any kind of assistance to Russia.

No Syrian forces have been sent to Ukraine.

And South Africa seems to have sent one, possibly 2 shipments (single cargo ships in each case) on the downlow.

Yeah, but Iran and North Korea have throw their lot in with Russia, at least arms shipments wise.

[Makabreska]

Well, there is a little shitshow in Poland atm. They discovered a malfunctioned missile in the middle of the country that was just lying there since December and is almost guaranteed to be shot by Russians. And now gov is arguing with the military who fucked up by not discovering a hostile flying projectile and not finding it after all this time.