Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gabriel]

Should've specified a 'different offensive', but point taken.

Their options right now suck, which is both good and bad. Good because lmao fuck 'em, bad because they might do something more unhinged if they start rapidly backsliding (But also lmao fuck 'em, unhinge 'em anyway).

Like there's no shot Russia has any big wonder weapons left up their sleeve; their brand new tanks and brand new jets don't actually exist (and are sub-standard compared to what they'll be facing in Ukraine anyway), their missile stockpiles are dwindling, and their troop moral hasn't existed for months. But their leadership (IE: Putin) are desperate to not come out of this looking like fools to their populace and there's only so many ways you can domestically spin losing a front you've been hammering for months to a single counter offensive and might do something really stupid.

Key word being 'might'. I won't scaremonger about nukes, considering how much their state propaganda keeps having to jerk off about Nuclear stockpiles I'm actually fairly convinced their arsenal of missiles is in the shitter and they'd rather keep the threat of them existing looming than risk firing one, failing for any number of reasons, then getting turned into a parking lot by NATO; but who knows with these people.

That's the beauty of the situation.

Russia can't win because of the tsunami of guns/equipment/vehicles/ammo provided to Ukraine by the West.
Russia can't back down because of sunk cost fallacy.
Russia can't nook because A their nooks don't actually work B they'll get vaporized if they try.

There is literally no future timeline where Russia doesn't end up breaking itself apart because of this conflict.

[YUPPIE]

There is literally no future timeline where Russia doesn't end up breaking itself apart because of this conflict.

There is one if Trump gets re-elected. I hate to keep reminding people of this, but just please remember how much Zelenksy has stressed the importance of major breakthroughs specifically before 2024 elections, as though he knows how shit will go down if a Republican takes office.

Ukraine’s scramble for weaponry and political support from its allies, a near-constant quest since the full-scale Russian invasion of February 2022, is increasingly shadowed by worries over a heretofore unthinkable scenario — one in which the United States would no longer be Ukraine’s chief patron.

“It demonstrates, to some extent, that there is uncertainty in Europe over the next U.S. election,” said Liana Fix, a Europe fellow at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations. “Europe wants to show that it will continue to help even if there is a change in U.S. policy, to make clear that this war is existential for Europeans as well as Ukraine.”

While there is recognition in European capitals that it’s still early in the U.S. presidential contest, former President Trump’s recent refusal to express hopes for a Ukrainian victory — a stark contrast with President Biden’s full-throated support, including a visit to Kyiv in February — caused a ripple of nervousness across the continent.

[Xyonai]

That's the beauty of the situation.

Russia can't win because of the tsunami of guns/equipment/vehicles/ammo provided to Ukraine by the West.
Russia can't back down because of sunk cost fallacy.
Russia can't nook because A their nooks don't actually work B they'll get vaporized if they try.

There is literally no future timeline where Russia doesn't end up breaking itself apart because of this conflict.

At this point Russia's only win condition is holding the line long enough to sue for peace, and even then that's not going to be feasible because Ukraine won't take any deals that don't involve giving them their land back as long as they have the kind of arms advantage they do now. The best thing Russia can hope for right now is that, somehow, the next election cycle sees Russian sympathetic leaders instilled in the US, UK, France, and Germany all at the same time and they all simultaneously withdraw arms support.

[Gorsameth]

On the contrary, they'll probably throw a tantrum and launch another missile barrage at children's hospitals and apartment buildings like they did when the Crimean Bridge was damaged, though with a mix of Russian Missile shortages and the Patriots being Patriots, it'll amount to 'figuratively' nothing happening.

If their military was in any better shape, I could imagine them launching a retaliatory counter-counter offensive at a weaker part of the Ukraine line, but the more they sit back and just dig in the more they're going to get hammered by drones and Storm Shadows so they might feel pressured to launch an offensive anyway just to take some heat off and save face.

They tried launching that offensive a while ago. It failed so utterly that no noticeable ground was gained.

They are not sitting back because they want to, but because they literally cannot go forward without throwing thousands of bodies into the blender to get 2 meters of ground.

[DarkTZeratul]

The best thing Russia can hope for right now is that, somehow, the next election cycle sees Russian sympathetic leaders instilled in the US, UK, France, and Germany all at the same time and they all simultaneously withdraw arms support.

I suppose an alternative is that Putin dies and whoever replaces him calls it off.

[Corvus]

Luka has made an appearance to show he isn't dead. Just sick, not poisoned.

[Xyonai]

I suppose an alternative is that Putin dies and whoever replaces him calls it off.

That is also just as likely at this rate.

[Iphie]

Luka has made an appearance to show he isn't dead. Just sick, not poisoned.

I sincerly wish him a life long enough to see putin fall. (and I hope he's contingency planning to keep Belorussia out of the war and the clutches of russia should he expire prematurely.)

[YUPPIE]

I sincerly wish him a life long enough to see putin fall. (and I hope he's contingency planning to keep Belorussia out of the war and the clutches of russia should he expire prematurely.)

Lukashenko is just as evil as Putin.

[Corvus]

Heavy attack on Kyiv, a mix of Iranian drones and russian missiles, including khinzals. Only damage reported is from falling debris so far so looks like western air defence systems are once again holding up.

[Lynarii]

I sincerly wish him a life long enough to see putin fall. (and I hope he's contingency planning to keep Belorussia out of the war and the clutches of russia should he expire prematurely.)

He won't. I don't think for a moment he cares what happens after he dies, Luka is a selfish opportunist every chance he gets. His support of Russia was for his own personal gain, his defiance of it has been only to keep his own people from having him accidentally trip over his shoelaces and fall on a bullet. He has never, and will never, take an action because it is the right thing to do.

[Corvus]

Ukraine is saying they shot down everything headed to Kyiv, including 6 khinzals.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1...819312642?s=20

They are hardly living up to their unstoppable claim.

[Iphie]

Ukraine is saying they shot down everything headed to Kyiv, including 6 khinzals.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1...819312642?s=20

They are hardly living up to their unstoppable claim.

Patriot system is getting a good workout. Amazing work by the Ukrainians.

[Nymrohd]

Patriot system is getting a good workout. Amazing work by the Ukrainians.

And amazing advertisement for western defense industry. THis entire war is.

[YUPPIE]

why does Ukraine try to blame most of its famous government corruption on Russian influence? I mean, the war gives them a believable alibi since no one trusts Russians now, but most of it?

This is relevant because it is one of the hurdles Ukraine has to go through to join the eu

[Iphie]

Seems prig's reaching the end of the line sooner or later:

The allegations are unlikely to cause the Kremlin to remove Prigozhin in the near term but can contribute to efforts to discredit Prigozhin. The Kremlin likely suspects or is aware of Prigozhin’s reported communications with Ukrainian intelligence and likely was not blindsided by The Washington Post report or the leaked US intelligence documents. Russian officials had reportedly threatened Prigozhin with treason if he were to act on his attempt to blackmail the MoD into providing him more ammunition by threatening to withdraw from Bakhmut. The Kremlin is likely preparing mechanisms to discredit Prigozhin as a traitor.[11] Unnamed Kremlin sources revealed that the Russian Presidential Administration is preparing an information operation to publicly discredit Prigozhin but noted that the Kremlin is unlikely to threaten Prigozhin while Wagner forces are on the frontlines.[12] Prigozhin commands the Wagner forces in Donbas, and his removal would disrupt the Russian lines in Bakhmut – a risk that Putin is unlikely to take. The Kremlin is also unable easily to publicly remove and replace Prigozhin as the de facto head of Wagner because Wagner is an independent company and Prigozhin holds no official position in the Russian government. Removing Prigozhin from his control of Wagner would ironically require asserting direct Kremlin control of the mercenary group from which Putin has been at pains to maintain formal distance.

Source

[Nymrohd]

So if Bakhmut is liberated, they call Prig a traitor and pin it on him

[YUPPIE]

Russia would not want Wagner rolling up Moscow and killing and destroying everything under these circumstances

[zealo]

why does Ukraine try to blame most of its famous government corruption on Russian influence? I mean, the war gives them a believable alibi since no one trusts Russians now, but most of it?

This is relevant because it is one of the hurdles Ukraine has to go through to join the eu

Nobody worth taking seriously is acting like Ukraine doesn’t have a big domestic problem with corruption that needs to be cleaned out.

The EU is all aware of that already and won’t let them in until serious reforms happen, that’s part of the accession process, but the Ukrainians are at least trying to change unlike Russia.

[Nymrohd]

Nobody worth taking seriously is acting like Ukraine doesn’t have a big domestic problem with corruption that needs to be cleaned out.

The EU is all aware of that already and won’t let them in until serious reforms happen, that’s part of the accession process, but the Ukrainians are at least trying to change unlike Russia.

And it is not unfair to suggest that a big part of corruption in former member states of the USSR is the legacy of the USSR.