Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Saradain]

After hundreds of "Bakhmut is captured by vatniks" propaganda posting spree, it seems it now may be fully under Russian occupation.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ut-2023-05-21/

HIROSHIMA, Japan, May 21 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy appeared to confirm the loss of the city of Bakhmut to Russia on Sunday, when asked if it remained in Kyiv's control.

"I think no," he said ahead of a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden in Japan. "For today, Bakhmut is only in our hearts."

Russia claimed on Saturday to have fully captured the smashed eastern Ukrainian city, which if true would mark an end to the longest and bloodiest battle of the 15-month war.

Although not much later, this:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ut-2023-05-21/

KYIV, May 21 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy did not confirm the capture by Russian forces of the besieged eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, his spokesman said on Sunday.

"Reporter's question: Russians said they have taken Bakhmut," Sergii Nykyforov wrote on Facebook. "President's reply: I think no."

He added in Ukrainian: "In this way, the president denied the capture of Bakhmut."

Be it whatever, at least the rather militarily insignificant city was a meatgrinder for the orcs, but if Bakhmut is now taken fully, the same meatgrinder will just change places. Brace for impact, russian propaganda posting will be using this as great victory nonetheless.

Silver lining for me is that if this is true, then the West may as well agree to send even better equipment in all forms to ensure russian defeat and re-claiming all Ukrainian land.

[alach]

After hundreds of "Bakhmut is captured by vatniks" propaganda posting spree, it seems it now may be fully under Russian occupation.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ut-2023-05-21/



Although not much later, this:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ut-2023-05-21/



Be it whatever, at least the rather militarily insignificant city was a meatgrinder for the orcs, but if Bakhmut is now taken fully, the same meatgrinder will just change places. Brace for impact, russian propaganda posting will be using this as great victory nonetheless.

Silver lining for me is that if this is true, then the West may as well agree to send even better equipment in all forms to ensure russian defeat and re-claiming all Ukrainian land.

He also said in that same answer that if they took it that there is nothing left. He said, all they have is some rocks and alot of dead russians.

[Saradain]

He also said in that same answer that if they took it that there is nothing left. He said, all they have is some rocks and alot of dead russians.

Indeed. It is merely a propaganda victory for ruins. But it also means the same meatgrinder happens somewhere else there, which is great for exterminating the orcs. Ukraine will mourn for each eradicated city regardless.

Only in russian minds, a small city is a victory condition for an entire war. Meanwhile more and more weaponry is greenlit, Crimea having signs of something happening in due time...

I don't think russians thought it through very well, the longer the war lasts, the bigger the megacolossal list of war crimes and genocide alike grows. All-in investment it is.

[jonnysensible]

Russia culture spreading to Bakhmut :



Liberation!

Haven't looked through the last 10 or so pages any updates from our poster who lives in the donbas or that Gaz guy who joined the Ukrainian army?

[Cynical Asshole]

I don't think russians thought it through very well, the longer the war lasts, the bigger the megacolossal list of war crimes and genocide alike grows. All-in investment it is.

I don't think that matters at all. Only a defeated opponent will answer for their crimes, and Russia is not defeated even if it loses in Ukraine, and of course no one is going to actually invade Russia and cause Putin to suicide in a bunker and his generals to be tried for war crimes and executed.

War crimes will be hand waved, just like the downing of that civilian commercial aircraft, because no one can actually make them answer for it.

[Saradain]

I don't think that matters at all. Only a defeated opponent will answer for their crimes, and Russia is not defeated even if it loses in Ukraine, and of course no one is going to actually invade Russia and cause Putin to suicide in a bunker and his generals to be tried for war crimes and executed.

War crimes will be hand waved, just like the downing of that civilian commercial aircraft, because no one can actually make them answer for it.

If long-duration, working sanctions that keep on piling is nothing, then Russia should have no problem conquering the entire world.

When Putin's genocidal war keeps giving them ever-increasing shit that hits the fan, things are primed for something bigger in domestic politics. Assuming Russia loses this war, losing occupied Crimea back to Ukraine, all the "liberated territory"...You expect Putin just to stay in power no problem and Russia to continue existing as it is?

[Huehuecoyotl]

Did I seriously just read that a Russian politician wants Poland to pay them for the cost of rebuilding Poland after the end of WW2?

That would be the war that was started by Russia and Germany teaming up to invade and destroy Poland? That war? Is this fucking satire, or are Russians really that deluded?

[zealo]

Did I seriously just read that a Russian politician wants Poland to pay them for the cost of rebuilding Poland after the end of WW2?

That would be the war that was started by Russia and Germany teaming up to invade and destroy Poland? That war? Is this fucking satire, or are Russians really that deluded?

Propaganda for internal consumption.

They like to pretend like the soviet involvement in that period before the middle of 1941 just didn't happen, and that the USSR weren't cooperating with Nazi Germany when it were.

[Makabreska]

Did I seriously just read that a Russian politician wants Poland to pay them for the cost of rebuilding Poland after the end of WW2?

That would be the war that was started by Russia and Germany teaming up to invade and destroy Poland? That war? Is this fucking satire, or are Russians really that deluded?

Prolly not the guy in question, but yes, your average Russian firmly believes that Soviets were liberating countries in WW2, that they single-handedly won the war and that Western Front never happened. Decades of mental conditioning does this to you.

[Iphie]

Bit late for April first, no?

This is NEVER going to happen, for a million reasons.

Edit: Should the tweet be removed then this is the text:

❗️The USA is ready to provide Ukraine with intercontinental ballistic missiles LGM-30G Minuteman III, but with the condition that the Armed Forces will not strike on the territory of Russia - CNN.

Misinformation and pure fabrication is one thing, but this is so brazen.

[Cynical Asshole]

If long-duration, working sanctions that keep on piling is nothing, then Russia should have no problem conquering the entire world.

When Putin's genocidal war keeps giving them ever-increasing shit that hits the fan, things are primed for something bigger in domestic politics. Assuming Russia loses this war, losing occupied Crimea back to Ukraine, all the "liberated territory"...You expect Putin just to stay in power no problem and Russia to continue existing as it is?

Ok. First of all, Russia still has nukes and is a military power. Sanctions are only up as long as Russia is in Ukraine. The moment it retreats, the sanctions drop. Why? Because Russia has oil and a whole other bunch of natural resources that the EU would very much like to get, and these sanctions also affect the EU in turn, so the EU can't wait to drop them asap, but not while the war is still going.

That means the EU won't condition dropping the sanctions in exchange for Russia turning over the war criminals, especially since these war criminals KNOW things about important persons in Russian government. So don't hold your breath about that.

Crimeea is lost to Ukraine. Russia very much considers it to be Russian territory and NATO agrees with that view. Zelensky can kick and scream all he wants that he will take everything back, but at the end of the day NATO has to compromise with Russia, and Crimeea is not even on the table.

Putin will stay in power. How? He has a bunch of very loyal and very powerful individuals. And not only they are loyal to him, but they have their own enemies that would crush them in an instant if Putin would no longer protect them in turn.
So this isn't just about Putin, it's also about a whole bunch of very powerful individuals who would go down with him, and sure as hell they're not gonna allow that.

Like...I understand people are angry and want satisfaction and retribution, but the real world and the real world politics don't work like in fantasy. In the real world it's all about COMPROMISE.

[Saradain]

Ok. First of all, Russia still has nukes and is a military power. Sanctions are only up as long as Russia is in Ukraine. The moment it retreats, the sanctions drop. Why? Because Russia has oil and a whole other bunch of natural resources that the EU would very much like to get, and these sanctions also affect the EU in turn, so the EU can't wait to drop them asap, but not while the war is still going.

That means the EU won't condition dropping the sanctions in exchange for Russia turning over the war criminals, especially since these war criminals KNOW things about important persons in Russian government. So don't hold your breath about that.

Crimeea is lost to Ukraine. Russia very much considers it to be Russian territory and NATO agrees with that view. Zelensky can kick and scream all he wants that he will take everything back, but at the end of the day NATO has to compromise with Russia, and Crimeea is not even on the table.

Putin will stay in power. How? He has a bunch of very loyal and very powerful individuals. And not only they are loyal to him, but they have their own enemies that would crush them in an instant if Putin would no longer protect them in turn.
So this isn't just about Putin, it's also about a whole bunch of very powerful individuals who would go down with him, and sure as hell they're not gonna allow that.

Like...I understand people are angry and want satisfaction and retribution, but the real world and the real world politics don't work like in fantasy. In the real world it's all about COMPROMISE.

To be honest when you have these takes in this volume, it almost kills any motivation to even try to discuss this with you. You couldn't be more wrong.

Or maybe you are worth your name, cynical to the extreme that your whole message seems to be about Russia stronk who will do what they want, forever and the civilized world is just going to watch and not do a damn thing.

Or perhaps you can give us a reputable source for these claims, such as:

- NATO agreeing Crimea is Russian territory.

- EU wanting to drop the sanctions asap despite of being very far in solving the russian dependency on such resources, which is what they literally are aiming for.

- NATO having to compromise shit with a terrorist nazi state, did you forget your history what happened with Germany?

Start sourcing those before anything else. What compromise can there be when they aim to purge the whole nation, people, culture and all?

AH yes, handwaving genocide.

[Gorsameth]

Crimeea is lost to Ukraine. Russia very much considers it to be Russian territory and NATO agrees with that view. Zelensky can kick and scream all he wants that he will take everything back, but at the end of the day NATO has to compromise with Russia, and Crimeea is not even on the table.

???

No NATO absolutely does not recognise Crimea as being Russian. Not even Russia's big 'ally' China recognises Crimea as being Russian.
No NATO does not need to compromise with Russia over Crimea.

After the failed assault on Kyiv and failing to conquer Ukraine in 3 days the main Russian goal has been securing a land bridge between Russia and Crimea because without said land bridge holding Crimea is absolutely untenable.
Once the land bridge falls its merely a matter of time until Ukraine takes out the new bridge connection and completely isolates Crimea. At which point it becomes utterly impossible to hold.

Russia was able to annex and hold Crimea because Ukraine wasn't ready in 2014 and no one was willing to go to war with Russia over it. Russia itself solved that 'problem' by being renewing the war themselves so now the West can keep supplying Ukraine and give them the means to reclaim all of their territory, including Crimea.

[Cynical Asshole]

To be honest when you have these takes in this volume, it almost kills any motivation to even try to discuss this with you. You couldn't be more wrong.

Or maybe you are worth your name, cynical to the extreme that your whole message seems to be about Russia stronk who will do what they want, forever and the civilized world is just going to watch and not do a damn thing.

Or perhaps you can give us a reputable source for these claims, such as:

- NATO agreeing Crimea is Russian territory.

- EU wanting to drop the sanctions asap despite of being very far in solving the russian dependency on such resources, which is what they literally are aiming for.

- NATO having to compromise shit with a terrorist nazi state, did you forget your history what happened with Germany?

Start sourcing those before anything else. What compromise can there be when they aim to purge the whole nation, people, culture and all?

AH yes, handwaving genocide.

Fine then. Keep living in your delusional world where you think Putin will leave power and a new leader will come up who will instantly order the retreat of all Russian forces and give back Crimeea to Ukraine, and then hand over all the Russian war criminals to international courts. And all this without even being defeated like Germany in WW2.

What wonderful world you live in.

[Gorsameth]

Fine then. Keep living in your delusional world where you think Putin will leave power and a new leader will come up who will instantly order the retreat of all Russian forces and give back Crimeea to Ukraine, and then hand over all the Russian war criminals to international courts. And all this without even being defeated like Germany in WW2.

What wonderful world you live in.

No Russia doesn't need to retreat and give back Crimea. Ukraine will simply keep sending Russians home in bags until they have reached their old borders.
Russia doesn't need to chose to comply.

[Saradain]

Fine then. Keep living in your delusional world where you think Putin will leave power and a new leader will come up who will instantly order the retreat of all Russian forces and give back Crimeea to Ukraine, and then hand over all the Russian war criminals to international courts. And all this without even being defeated like Germany in WW2.

What wonderful world you live in.

Yeah, I don't live in the russian world. You keep dreaming that Mother Russia stronk. But when you make wild claim without basis in reality and you refuse to back them up with facts, what does that make you?

[Gabriel]

Ok. First of all, Russia still has nukes and is a military power. Sanctions are only up as long as Russia is in Ukraine. The moment it retreats, the sanctions drop. Why? Because Russia has oil and a whole other bunch of natural resources that the EU would very much like to get, and these sanctions also affect the EU in turn, so the EU can't wait to drop them asap, but not while the war is still going.

That means the EU won't condition dropping the sanctions in exchange for Russia turning over the war criminals, especially since these war criminals KNOW things about important persons in Russian government. So don't hold your breath about that.

Crimeea is lost to Ukraine. Russia very much considers it to be Russian territory and NATO agrees with that view. Zelensky can kick and scream all he wants that he will take everything back, but at the end of the day NATO has to compromise with Russia, and Crimeea is not even on the table.

Putin will stay in power. How? He has a bunch of very loyal and very powerful individuals. And not only they are loyal to him, but they have their own enemies that would crush them in an instant if Putin would no longer protect them in turn.
So this isn't just about Putin, it's also about a whole bunch of very powerful individuals who would go down with him, and sure as hell they're not gonna allow that.

Like...I understand people are angry and want satisfaction and retribution, but the real world and the real world politics don't work like in fantasy. In the real world it's all about COMPROMISE.

You don't understand how criminal organizations work. If the head of the organization shows weakness, he will get replaced by someone else. Putin fucked up by committing to this war as much as he did, and the only win condition left for him is to actually completely take over Ukraine. He is unable to do that, so the best he can hope for is to keep getting Russians killed until he dies of natural causes.

The only compromise that is even remotely possible at this point between Russia and the West, is that someone from the Russian elite decides that enough is enough and they give Putler the good ol' bullet to the back of his stupid head in some damp basement, and then stage a coup to blame the whole mess on Putin and his direct underlings only.

Then I could see the West going "ohh okay good you are clearly a different sort of government now and we can start to go back to how things were before".

[Cynical Asshole]

No Russia doesn't need to retreat and give back Crimea. Ukraine will simply keep sending Russians home in bags until they have reached their old borders.
Russia doesn't need to chose to comply.

You just don't get it, do you. Putin has millions of soldiers at his command. Ukraine doesn't and relies entirely on Western assistance. Putin can just send them all in and just overwhelm any Ukrainian opposition if he so desires. He doesn't do it because mass conscriptions would be unpopular in Russia, but he WILL if he feels like he's going to lose the war. The one thing he will not allow in a million years while in power is a defeat in Ukraine. As long as he can, he will just send more and more soldiers and ordnance, until he wins just by attrition. There is only one red line: no nukes allowed. Other than that he can just prolong the war for decades and commit millions of soldiers if he's not deposed by his own people, which is not happening because of what I said above.

Putin's very life depends on winning in Ukraine or at least dragging it for as long as possible until he just dies of old age, and he doesn't give a shit about the lives of his own Russian people.

Sanctions? What sanctions? He completely replaced the EU oil customers with China, South America, and India (who actually buys crude oil from Russia, refines it, and then sells it to the EU, allowing Russia to circumvent the sanctions).

- - - Updated - - -

You don't understand how criminal organizations work. If the head of the organization shows weakness, he will get replaced by someone else. Putin fucked up by committing to this war as much as he did, and the only win condition left for him is to actually completely take over Ukraine. He is unable to do that, so the best he can hope for is to keep getting Russians killed until he dies of natural causes.

The only compromise that is even remotely possible at this point between Russia and the West, is that someone from the Russian elite decides that enough is enough and they give Putler the good ol' bullet to the back of his stupid head in some damp basement, and then stage a coup to blame the whole mess on Putin and his direct underlings only.

Then I could see the West going "ohh okay good you are clearly a different sort of government now and we can start to go back to how things were before".

No. YOU don't understand politics. It's not about individual people, it's about FACTIONS. Factions are extremely hard to tear down compared to individuals, and that always happens with a civil war.

Putin made a lot of people dependent on him, and those people dependent on others in their faction, and with a lot of enemies outside their faction, and they know that if Putin goes down, he will drag them with him.

[Gabriel]

No. YOU don't understand politics. It's not about individual people, it's about FACTIONS. Factions are extremely hard to tear down compared to individuals, and that always happens with a civil war.

Putin made a lot of people dependent on him, and those people dependent on others in their faction, and with a lot of enemies outside their faction, and they know that if Putin goes down, he will drag them with him.

But... that's... literally what I said?

[Jastall]

You just don't get it, do you. Putin has millions of soldiers at his command. Ukraine doesn't and relies entirely on Western assistance. Putin can just send them all in and just overwhelm any Ukrainian opposition if he so desires. He doesn't do it because mass conscriptions would be unpopular in Russia, but he WILL if he feels like he's going to lose the war. The one thing he will not allow in a million years while in power is a defeat in Ukraine. As long as he can, he will just send more and more soldiers and ordnance, until he wins just by attrition. There is only one red line: no nukes allowed. Other than that he can just prolong the war for decades and commit millions of soldiers if he's not deposed by his own people, which is not happening because of what I said above.

Putin's very life depends on winning in Ukraine or at least dragging it for as long as possible until he just dies of old age, and he doesn't give a shit about the lives of his own Russian people.

- - - Updated - - -



No. YOU don't understand politics. It's not about individual people, it's about FACTIONS. Factions are extremely hard to tear down compared to individuals, and that always happens with a civil war.

Putin made a lot of people dependent on him, and those people dependent on others in their faction, and with a lot of enemies outside their faction, and they know that if Putin goes down, he will drag them with him.

Mass conscription will not only be incredibly unpopular, it'll utterly kneecap Russia's economy likely for decades to come. If Putin is at all interested in leaving his country something other than a vassal gas station of China after he croaks then he'll very much want to avoid throwing away a huge chunk of his most useful workforce during a time of heavy sanctions. Wars are scarcely won by having more boots on the ground and attack-moving them all, they're won by having a better strategic and logistical apparatus than the enemy. To say nothing of how Russia throwing ethnic minorities into the grinder is really not the same as throwing "actual" Russians from Moscow or St. Pete's in the eyes of the public.

Offensive victories by sheer attrition are also quite rare in history. Especially against an opponent with a lot of economic and logistical backing from foreign powers who have every interest in keeping the arms circulating. If human waves was all that was required to win wars against smaller States the USSR would have rolled over Finland back in 1941 rather then be forced to make peace in embarrassment.

Russia's best hope for a victory is for Russia-sympathetic politicians to take power in the West. If Trump wins 2024 and, I dunno, Le Pen beats Macron in France then things may start looking real bad for Ukraine.