Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gorsameth]

Crimeea is lost to Ukraine. Russia very much considers it to be Russian territory and NATO agrees with that view. Zelensky can kick and scream all he wants that he will take everything back, but at the end of the day NATO has to compromise with Russia, and Crimeea is not even on the table.

???

No NATO absolutely does not recognise Crimea as being Russian. Not even Russia's big 'ally' China recognises Crimea as being Russian.
No NATO does not need to compromise with Russia over Crimea.

After the failed assault on Kyiv and failing to conquer Ukraine in 3 days the main Russian goal has been securing a land bridge between Russia and Crimea because without said land bridge holding Crimea is absolutely untenable.
Once the land bridge falls its merely a matter of time until Ukraine takes out the new bridge connection and completely isolates Crimea. At which point it becomes utterly impossible to hold.

Russia was able to annex and hold Crimea because Ukraine wasn't ready in 2014 and no one was willing to go to war with Russia over it. Russia itself solved that 'problem' by being renewing the war themselves so now the West can keep supplying Ukraine and give them the means to reclaim all of their territory, including Crimea.

[Cynical Asshole]

To be honest when you have these takes in this volume, it almost kills any motivation to even try to discuss this with you. You couldn't be more wrong.

Or maybe you are worth your name, cynical to the extreme that your whole message seems to be about Russia stronk who will do what they want, forever and the civilized world is just going to watch and not do a damn thing.

Or perhaps you can give us a reputable source for these claims, such as:

- NATO agreeing Crimea is Russian territory.

- EU wanting to drop the sanctions asap despite of being very far in solving the russian dependency on such resources, which is what they literally are aiming for.

- NATO having to compromise shit with a terrorist nazi state, did you forget your history what happened with Germany?

Start sourcing those before anything else. What compromise can there be when they aim to purge the whole nation, people, culture and all?

AH yes, handwaving genocide.

Fine then. Keep living in your delusional world where you think Putin will leave power and a new leader will come up who will instantly order the retreat of all Russian forces and give back Crimeea to Ukraine, and then hand over all the Russian war criminals to international courts. And all this without even being defeated like Germany in WW2.

What wonderful world you live in.

[Gorsameth]

Fine then. Keep living in your delusional world where you think Putin will leave power and a new leader will come up who will instantly order the retreat of all Russian forces and give back Crimeea to Ukraine, and then hand over all the Russian war criminals to international courts. And all this without even being defeated like Germany in WW2.

What wonderful world you live in.

No Russia doesn't need to retreat and give back Crimea. Ukraine will simply keep sending Russians home in bags until they have reached their old borders.
Russia doesn't need to chose to comply.

[Saradain]

Fine then. Keep living in your delusional world where you think Putin will leave power and a new leader will come up who will instantly order the retreat of all Russian forces and give back Crimeea to Ukraine, and then hand over all the Russian war criminals to international courts. And all this without even being defeated like Germany in WW2.

What wonderful world you live in.

Yeah, I don't live in the russian world. You keep dreaming that Mother Russia stronk. But when you make wild claim without basis in reality and you refuse to back them up with facts, what does that make you?

[Gabriel]

Ok. First of all, Russia still has nukes and is a military power. Sanctions are only up as long as Russia is in Ukraine. The moment it retreats, the sanctions drop. Why? Because Russia has oil and a whole other bunch of natural resources that the EU would very much like to get, and these sanctions also affect the EU in turn, so the EU can't wait to drop them asap, but not while the war is still going.

That means the EU won't condition dropping the sanctions in exchange for Russia turning over the war criminals, especially since these war criminals KNOW things about important persons in Russian government. So don't hold your breath about that.

Crimeea is lost to Ukraine. Russia very much considers it to be Russian territory and NATO agrees with that view. Zelensky can kick and scream all he wants that he will take everything back, but at the end of the day NATO has to compromise with Russia, and Crimeea is not even on the table.

Putin will stay in power. How? He has a bunch of very loyal and very powerful individuals. And not only they are loyal to him, but they have their own enemies that would crush them in an instant if Putin would no longer protect them in turn.
So this isn't just about Putin, it's also about a whole bunch of very powerful individuals who would go down with him, and sure as hell they're not gonna allow that.

Like...I understand people are angry and want satisfaction and retribution, but the real world and the real world politics don't work like in fantasy. In the real world it's all about COMPROMISE.

You don't understand how criminal organizations work. If the head of the organization shows weakness, he will get replaced by someone else. Putin fucked up by committing to this war as much as he did, and the only win condition left for him is to actually completely take over Ukraine. He is unable to do that, so the best he can hope for is to keep getting Russians killed until he dies of natural causes.

The only compromise that is even remotely possible at this point between Russia and the West, is that someone from the Russian elite decides that enough is enough and they give Putler the good ol' bullet to the back of his stupid head in some damp basement, and then stage a coup to blame the whole mess on Putin and his direct underlings only.

Then I could see the West going "ohh okay good you are clearly a different sort of government now and we can start to go back to how things were before".

[Cynical Asshole]

No Russia doesn't need to retreat and give back Crimea. Ukraine will simply keep sending Russians home in bags until they have reached their old borders.
Russia doesn't need to chose to comply.

You just don't get it, do you. Putin has millions of soldiers at his command. Ukraine doesn't and relies entirely on Western assistance. Putin can just send them all in and just overwhelm any Ukrainian opposition if he so desires. He doesn't do it because mass conscriptions would be unpopular in Russia, but he WILL if he feels like he's going to lose the war. The one thing he will not allow in a million years while in power is a defeat in Ukraine. As long as he can, he will just send more and more soldiers and ordnance, until he wins just by attrition. There is only one red line: no nukes allowed. Other than that he can just prolong the war for decades and commit millions of soldiers if he's not deposed by his own people, which is not happening because of what I said above.

Putin's very life depends on winning in Ukraine or at least dragging it for as long as possible until he just dies of old age, and he doesn't give a shit about the lives of his own Russian people.

Sanctions? What sanctions? He completely replaced the EU oil customers with China, South America, and India (who actually buys crude oil from Russia, refines it, and then sells it to the EU, allowing Russia to circumvent the sanctions).

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You don't understand how criminal organizations work. If the head of the organization shows weakness, he will get replaced by someone else. Putin fucked up by committing to this war as much as he did, and the only win condition left for him is to actually completely take over Ukraine. He is unable to do that, so the best he can hope for is to keep getting Russians killed until he dies of natural causes.

The only compromise that is even remotely possible at this point between Russia and the West, is that someone from the Russian elite decides that enough is enough and they give Putler the good ol' bullet to the back of his stupid head in some damp basement, and then stage a coup to blame the whole mess on Putin and his direct underlings only.

Then I could see the West going "ohh okay good you are clearly a different sort of government now and we can start to go back to how things were before".

No. YOU don't understand politics. It's not about individual people, it's about FACTIONS. Factions are extremely hard to tear down compared to individuals, and that always happens with a civil war.

Putin made a lot of people dependent on him, and those people dependent on others in their faction, and with a lot of enemies outside their faction, and they know that if Putin goes down, he will drag them with him.

[Gabriel]

No. YOU don't understand politics. It's not about individual people, it's about FACTIONS. Factions are extremely hard to tear down compared to individuals, and that always happens with a civil war.

Putin made a lot of people dependent on him, and those people dependent on others in their faction, and with a lot of enemies outside their faction, and they know that if Putin goes down, he will drag them with him.

But... that's... literally what I said?

[Jastall]

You just don't get it, do you. Putin has millions of soldiers at his command. Ukraine doesn't and relies entirely on Western assistance. Putin can just send them all in and just overwhelm any Ukrainian opposition if he so desires. He doesn't do it because mass conscriptions would be unpopular in Russia, but he WILL if he feels like he's going to lose the war. The one thing he will not allow in a million years while in power is a defeat in Ukraine. As long as he can, he will just send more and more soldiers and ordnance, until he wins just by attrition. There is only one red line: no nukes allowed. Other than that he can just prolong the war for decades and commit millions of soldiers if he's not deposed by his own people, which is not happening because of what I said above.

Putin's very life depends on winning in Ukraine or at least dragging it for as long as possible until he just dies of old age, and he doesn't give a shit about the lives of his own Russian people.

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No. YOU don't understand politics. It's not about individual people, it's about FACTIONS. Factions are extremely hard to tear down compared to individuals, and that always happens with a civil war.

Putin made a lot of people dependent on him, and those people dependent on others in their faction, and with a lot of enemies outside their faction, and they know that if Putin goes down, he will drag them with him.

Mass conscription will not only be incredibly unpopular, it'll utterly kneecap Russia's economy likely for decades to come. If Putin is at all interested in leaving his country something other than a vassal gas station of China after he croaks then he'll very much want to avoid throwing away a huge chunk of his most useful workforce during a time of heavy sanctions. Wars are scarcely won by having more boots on the ground and attack-moving them all, they're won by having a better strategic and logistical apparatus than the enemy. To say nothing of how Russia throwing ethnic minorities into the grinder is really not the same as throwing "actual" Russians from Moscow or St. Pete's in the eyes of the public.

Offensive victories by sheer attrition are also quite rare in history. Especially against an opponent with a lot of economic and logistical backing from foreign powers who have every interest in keeping the arms circulating. If human waves was all that was required to win wars against smaller States the USSR would have rolled over Finland back in 1941 rather then be forced to make peace in embarrassment.

Russia's best hope for a victory is for Russia-sympathetic politicians to take power in the West. If Trump wins 2024 and, I dunno, Le Pen beats Macron in France then things may start looking real bad for Ukraine.

[Cynical Asshole]

Russia's best hope for a victory is for Russia-sympathetic politicians to take power in the West. If Trump wins 2024 and, I dunno, Le Pen beats Macron in France then things may start looking real bad for Ukraine.

This is bigger than Ukraine. Trump and Le Pen can say publically whatever they want in order to get voters to support them, but at the end of the day this is about Taiwan, and even they know this. Because if China isn't delivered a strong message that the West is both willing and capable of supporting a weaker nation against a much more powerful one, then China will just invade Taiwan and then corner the world electronics market, among other things as well, and this will affect the West's economy as well as credibility a lot more than having to spend money in Ukraine.

Trump and LePen are not idiots. They know this.

[Gorsameth]

You just don't get it, do you. Putin has millions of soldiers at his command. Ukraine doesn't and relies entirely on Western assistance. Putin can just send them all in and just overwhelm any Ukrainian opposition if he so desires. He doesn't do it because mass conscriptions would be unpopular in Russia, but he WILL if he feels like he's going to lose the war. The one thing he will not allow in a million years while in power is a defeat in Ukraine. As long as he can, he will just send more and more soldiers and ordnance, until he wins just by attrition. There is only one red line: no nukes allowed. Other than that he can just prolong the war for decades and commit millions of soldiers if he's not deposed by his own people, which is not happening because of what I said above.

Putin's very life depends on winning in Ukraine or at least dragging it for as long as possible until he just dies of old age, and he doesn't give a shit about the lives of his own Russian people.

Sanctions? What sanctions? He completely replaced the EU oil customers with China, South America, and India (who actually buys crude oil from Russia, refines it, and then sells it to the EU, allowing Russia to circumvent the sanctions).

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No. YOU don't understand politics. It's not about individual people, it's about FACTIONS. Factions are extremely hard to tear down compared to individuals, and that always happens with a civil war.

Putin made a lot of people dependent on him, and those people dependent on others in their faction, and with a lot of enemies outside their faction, and they know that if Putin goes down, he will drag them with him.

Ah yes, we're back to "Russia isn't really trying".

Offensive firepower has come a long way since WW2, just throwing bodies at the problem until the enemy runs out of ammo isn't what it used to be. For one Russia absolutely does not have the supplies to equip all those conscripts if they wanted to use them. They are struggling with equipping the soldiers in the field already.
And secondly, I wish Russian soldiers all the best in trying to human wave when a single HIMARS missile can kill all exposed 'soft' targets in a 4 football field area.

[Jastall]

This is bigger than Ukraine. Trump and Le Pen can say publically whatever they want in order to get voters to support them, but at the end of the day this is about Taiwan, and even they know this. Because if China isn't delivered a strong message that the West is both willing and capable of supporting a weaker nation against a much more powerful one, then China will just invade Taiwan and then corner the world electronics market, among other things as well, and this will affect the West's economy as well as credibility a lot more than having to spend money in Ukraine.

Trump and LePen are not idiots. They know this.

Le Pen yes, Trump I'm really not sure at this point but that's neither here nor there.

But for the reasons you stated, and more besides, support for Ukraine is unlikely to end unless a bunch of people in the West end up being very dumb. And so long as Ukraine gets good-quality armaments, training for it, and financial support too keep a war effort going, Putin can throw as many of his poorly trained mobiks in old ass tanks and pickup trucks as he wants at them. All he'll probably do is provide more effective advertisement for NATO arms while killing more young males in a country that is already lacking in them, tanking their economy even further as the only comparable advantage Russia has anymore is selling cheap gas to China and India, and shoot their demographic pyramid in the head while they're at it.

Putin can perhaps in the long run ruin Ukraine, by also ruining Russia maybe slightly less. If that's the plan, well, I can't exactly stop him but that would be a product of spiteful stupidity far more than ruthless pragmatism.

[diller]

I don't think the planes and their allegiances have anything to do with his safety, it's just the security and secrecy that does that.

If Zelenksy were unsecurely and publicly flying place to place, regardless of that plane's allegiances (NATO, etc), I 100% assure Russia will try to down it and then say they didn't do it. We KNOW they've done this before.

You are so fucking deluded that it's not even funny anymore - shooting down say a normal air-plane with Zelenksy onboard would still result in the rest of the world going to war with Russia, it wouldn't make any difference and it's not even because of Zelenksy, shooting down a plane on purpose usually has consequences.

[YUPPIE]

The situation in Bahkmut in my opinion just illustrates the direness (more optimistic than "hopeless") of this war and how propaganda is dangerously deceptive. For a while now, Ukrainians have been claiming Bahkmut is theirs and how they're winning...up to the last moment showing they were basically decimated.

Now, that is not to say Russia has claimed or won Bahkmut, but as we can see in the aftermath, they have completely destroyed it and rendered it a smoking crater. If they cannot win it, they just DESTROYED ALL OF IT along with themselves in a scorched earth campaign.

This happened despite all the tough talk of sanctions, overwhelming losses, etc. And it just illustrates my point the war for the Ukrainian military is bleaker than what propaganda will tell you, even if they're stalemating or not necessarily losing.

[diller]

Fine then. Keep living in your delusional world where you think Putin will leave power and a new leader will come up who will instantly order the retreat of all Russian forces and give back Crimeea to Ukraine, and then hand over all the Russian war criminals to international courts. And all this without even being defeated like Germany in WW2.

What wonderful world you live in.

It's not delusional - unless Russia bow to the demands things will not be normalized.

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Trump and LePen are not idiots.

They most definitely are idiots.

[Gorsameth]

The situation in Bahkmut in my opinion just illustrates the direness (more optimistic than "hopeless") of this war and how propaganda is dangerously deceptive. For a while now, Ukrainians have been claiming Bahkmut is theirs and how they're winning...up to the last moment showing they were basically decimated.

Now, that is not to say Russia has claimed or won Bahkmut, but as we can see in the aftermath, they have completely destroyed it and rendered it a smoking crater. If they cannot win it, they just DESTROYED ALL OF IT along with themselves in a scorched earth campaign.

This happened despite all the tough talk of sanctions, overwhelming losses, etc. And it just illustrates my point the war for the Ukrainian military is bleaker than what propaganda will tell you, even if they're stalemating or not necessarily losing.

Except Ukraine has not been decimated...

And destroying Bahkmut is not an accomplishment. Do not underestimate how much western reconstruction aid is going to be injected in Ukraine once Russia has been violently shoved back to where they belong.

A Marshal plan 2.0 is going to catapult Ukraine back up while Russia sinks ever deeper into the bottomless pit of its own creation.

[YUPPIE]

Except Ukraine has not been decimated...
And destroying Bahkmut is not an accomplishment.

1) only in Bahkmut, not as a whole.

2) no, it's not, but as the other posters have indicated, it shows Russia will utterly raze anything they can't claim. So instead of inching forward and taking land bit by bit per disproportionate losses as I said before, what if they now inch bit by bit and destroy everything like this instead?

[Gorsameth]

1) only in Bahkmut, not as a whole.

2) no, it's not, but as the other posters have indicated, it shows Russia will utterly raze anything they can't claim. So instead of inching forward and taking land bit by bit per disproportionate losses as I said before, what if they now inch bit by bit and destroy everything like this instead?

its not the taking land vs destroying it that costs disproportionate losses. its the inching forward.

And, assuming Bahkmut has even fallen which is not something agreed on, your now not inching forward under cover of rubble in a destroyed city but across an open field.

We told you months and months ago that Bahkmut has no actual value. Its just the ground upon Ukraine is killing thousands of Russians.

[Dontrike]

Like...I understand people are angry and want satisfaction and retribution, but the real world and the real world politics don't work like in fantasy. In the real world it's all about COMPROMISE.

Yeah guys, just compromise with the people that want your people dead. It's so simple.

Here's the compromise. Russia gets all soldiers out, Russia returns all territories back to Ukraine, Putin is executed, and pays for the rebuilding of Ukraine, and Ukraine gets to watch it happen. Anything less than that is fucking stupid and all you're doing is saying "It's okay for Russia to have done this."

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2) no, it's not, but as the other posters have indicated, it shows Russia will utterly raze anything they can't claim. So instead of inching forward and taking land bit by bit per disproportionate losses as I said before, what if they now inch bit by bit and destroy everything like this instead?

"Russia will spend 400x more taking over something they didn't really need to in order to present strength" isn't really the flex you're trying to portray here. What just described shows idiocy more than anything else.

[Cynical Asshole]

Yeah guys, just compromise with the people that want your people dead. It's so simple.

Here's the compromise. Russia gets all soldiers out, Russia returns all territories back to Ukraine, Putin is executed, and pays for the rebuilding of Ukraine, and Ukraine gets to watch it happen. Anything less than that is fucking stupid and all you're doing is saying "It's okay for Russia to have done this."

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Unfortunately we live in the real world, and not in a cartoon. So the only thing that's gonna happen is the first thing...maybe.

So you can rage all you want, but eventually you will have to face reality. And the reality is there will be a compromise, which is very likely going to be none of the above except pulling the soldiers out, and the West will be happy to do it because that means they can once again buy shit from Russia, shit that they need, and no one actually cares that much about the victims other than using them to mak pompous public statements pretending that they care.

[Dontrike]

Unfortunately we live in the real world, and not in a cartoon. So the only thing that's gonna happen is the first thing...maybe.

So you can rage all you want, but eventually you will have to face reality.

Your "real world" sure as shit seems to be heavily biased in Russia's favor. I wonder why that is.