1. #30981
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    "Realists" that think a PRC invasion of Taiwan is likely let alone feasible. Okay.



    No one's expecting that.
    Yeah, I didn't go too much in depth on that but any invasion of Taiwain is a couple decades away at least. China simply does not have the necessary logistics to assault a well defended island, let alone the potential domino effect of dragging the US along the ride which would be absolutely catastrophic for a vast multitudes of reasons. I don't think the CCP needed to watch the Russians fail at everything to know about those facts, even if the invasion did likely reinforce existing hesitations on the matter.
    It is all that is left unsaid upon which tragedies are built -Kreia

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  2. #30982
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cynical Asshole View Post
    Because we are realists and can see the writing on the wall. If you're expecting a Nazi Germany kind of defeat for Russia, where Russia loses everything and all the guilty parties are brought justice, you are incredibly delusional.
    No.

    I expect a continuously worsening internal and international situation for Russia, their regional power to be ceded to China as they are increasingly vassalized to suit chinas interests. NATO will continue to grow in strength in Europe as Russia slides into increased geopolitical obscurity.

    Internally they will continue to fall behind on technological and economic development as they become a glorified gas station of increasing obscurity as Europe continues to extricate its need to be reliant upon them. It will take decades for Russia to catch back up to where they once were, and by that time the rest of the world will have left them far behind. Their abilities to innovate have been sunk for the foreseeable future by the brain drain that has occurred in Russia through the millions of people fleeing and hundreds of thousands sent to die for nothing, not to mention the corporations who have severed ties with Russia.

    THAT is the realistic future for Russia.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  3. #30983
    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    I do agree with the nihilistic sentiment that everyone is just exploiting the war and that Russia will face no repercussions even if they lose. If they lose, there is no doubt the world will just try to resume business as fast as possible. You can't just shun a country with land mass and resources like that. At any point as well, Putin could just go into exile with his wealth and no one would bother him ala Pol Pot. I don't know if you all have been following the stories of his Resident evil-like underground bunker labrynth complex he can fuck off to.

    Besides the aforementioned Trump and Le Pen already in Putin's pocket, look at Hungary and Orban right now trying to impede Ukraine.
    No he can't. He has amassed his fortune by stealing from thieves. What makes you think that the other thieves won't simply cap his ass and take back what they originally stole from someone else?

  4. #30984
    Over 9000! Makabreska's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    No.I expect a continuously worsening internal and international situation for Russia, their regional power to be ceded to China as they are increasingly vassalized to suit chinas interests. NATO will continue to grow in strength in Europe as Russia slides into increased geopolitical obscurity.
    This is already happening. Two days ago we had a China-Central Asia Summit, where Xi met with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. All ex-soviet countries that were believed to still be under Russian sphere of influence. China wants to strengthen ties invest heavily into these countries.
    Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.

  5. #30985
    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    What makes you think that the other thieves won't simply cap his ass and take back what they originally stole from someone else?
    "if you kill me, you'll never know where the troves of trillions I've stashed away are."

    Basically. It's pretty clear his security personnel is at least in on this pie, hence why he's still alive.

  6. #30986
    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    "if you kill me, you'll never know where the troves of trillions I've stashed away are."

    Basically.
    This isn't a pirate fantasy.

  7. #30987
    Quote Originally Posted by Calfredd View Post
    This isn't a pirate fantasy.
    It actually is. Putin is the most successful thief in human history.

    Most people close to him would not jeopardize killing him knowing the bulk of his fortune would be lost. That's why he lives (again) despite all the reports of attempted assassinations/etc.

  8. #30988
    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    It actually is. Putin is the most successful thief in human history.

    Most people close to him would not jeopardize killing him knowing the bulk of his fortune would be lost. That's why he lives (again) despite all the reports of attempted assassinations/etc.
    Just because you idolize Putin doesn't mean you can keep lying and exaggerating his actions.

  9. #30989
    Quote Originally Posted by Calfredd View Post
    Just because you idolize Putin doesn't mean you can keep lying and exaggerating his actions.
    excuse me? I was just responding to the poster that stated the implications of this war after it's concluded.

    Putin and Russia will get off the hook, as awful as that sounds. The West just need to make sure they don't win the war, but a loss won't be a big deal to Russia long-term with all the facts presented.

  10. #30990
    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    "if you kill me, you'll never know where the troves of trillions I've stashed away are."

    Basically. It's pretty clear his security personnel is at least in on this pie, hence why he's still alive.
    This isn't Uncharted, dude. There isn't some magical vault of gold Putin is sitting on, you know that right?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    It actually is. Putin is the most successful thief in human history.

    Most people close to him would not jeopardize killing him knowing the bulk of his fortune would be lost. That's why he lives (again) despite all the reports of attempted assassinations/etc.
    This isn't how wealth works in the modern world.

  11. #30991
    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    This isn't Uncharted, dude. There isn't some magical vault of gold Putin is sitting on, you know that right?
    given most of his wealth is illicit/stolen and the world no doubt scouring for offshore accounts and restricting bank access, where do you think he would be putting all this money then?

    Don't forget it's even officially stated that while the world knows how rich Putin is, the true scope of his wealth is unknown even now.

  12. #30992
    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    given most of his wealth is illicit/stolen and the world no doubt scouring for offshore accounts and restricting bank access, where do you think he would be putting all this money then?

    Don't forget it's even officially stated that while the world knows how rich Putin is, the true scope of his wealth is unknown even now.
    Only to toadies and sycophants, Tsugunai.

  13. #30993
    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    given most of his wealth is illicit/stolen and the world no doubt scouring for offshore accounts and restricting bank access, where do you think he would be putting all this money then?

    Don't forget it's even officially stated that while the world knows how rich Putin is, the true scope of his wealth is unknown even now.
    You think Putin has all those offshore accounts and pin codes and whatever memorized so that they exist only in his head? For fuck's sake even you can't be this naive.

  14. #30994
    Over 9000! Makabreska's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    You think Putin has all those offshore accounts and pin codes and whatever memorized so that they exist only in his head? For fuck's sake even you can't be this naive.
    Did you really just ask this question?
    Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.

  15. #30995
    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    You think Putin has all those offshore accounts and pin codes and whatever memorized so that they exist only in his head? For fuck's sake even you can't be this naive.
    yeah. I mean, it's all his, I've no clue why he wouldn't keep track of all his property.

    I mean, Pablo Escobar's fortunes are still out there to this day and not entirely found. Great parallel as well.

  16. #30996
    Quote Originally Posted by Makabreska View Post
    Did you really just ask this question?
    I wish I didn't have to.

    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    yeah. I mean, it's all his, I've no clue why he wouldn't keep track of all his property.

    I mean, Pablo Escobar's fortunes are still out there to this day and not entirely found. Great parallel as well.

  17. #30997
    Anyway, if the point seems muddled, the whole convo has just been accounting for the probable fate of Russia and Putin after the war is lost.

    It's not even shilling, it's being real. Morals don't affect geopolitics. Both will just be fine business as usual because of wealth and resources. It's unrealistic to expect Russia to become some North Korea from sanctions and penalties with their place in the world in mind.
    Last edited by YUPPIE; 2023-05-21 at 06:50 PM.

  18. #30998
    Quote Originally Posted by Dontrike View Post
    Here's the compromise. Russia gets all soldiers out, Russia returns all territories back to Ukraine, Putin is executed, and pays for the rebuilding of Ukraine, and Ukraine gets to watch it happen. Anything less than that is fucking stupid and all you're doing is saying "It's okay for Russia to have done this."
    I just find it highly unlikely that anything past "Russia pulls its troops out of Ukraine" is going to happen.

    Putin getting thrown to the West as an apology, *maybe* but that would require an exceptional level of coordination from any would be usurpers because taking a target alive is far more difficult than killing it.
    But beyond that, any politician who would even agree to pay reparations is unlikely to end up in power and even if somehow, from that on be target practice for any nationalist.

    The most likely outcome is that Russia
    1. becomes (or more, specifically, stays) an international pariah
    2. further fragments

  19. #30999
    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    yeah. I mean, it's all his, I've no clue why he wouldn't keep track of all his property.

    I mean, Pablo Escobar's fortunes are still out there to this day and not entirely found. Great parallel as well.
    Pablo Escobar burried a few million dollars in the jungle somewhere. Most of it has probably rotted away ages ago, it's a moot point.

    We know exactly where Putin's wealth is, the numbers per say might be slightly muddled but they are muddled because of the nature of his "wealth".

    Putin isn't hording some fat stacks of 20 dollar bills somewhere.

    He uses a network of proxies of billionaires and oligarchs as his personal piggy banks. And they aren't holding cash for him, they are controlling industries, properties, assets, investments etc. He uses the control of the state apparatus (the throw people out of windows people) and groups like Wagner to keep everyone in check and to make sure nobody accumulates too much of anything.

    If he wants a palace built. Someone will build it for him. If he wants a boat, someone will buy it for him etc.

    If Putin died tomorrow, a whole lot of lackeys would breath a breath of relief as they could just pocket the wealth. The wealth doesn't go anywhere. It just decentralizes.

    Which is in turn will be quite problematic for the Russian state if they end up fragmenting.

  20. #31000
    When a reporter asked Biden about russia saying providing f16s to Ukraine is a collosal risk, he replied 'It is. To them.'

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