Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

Aw, he hurt poor widdle russia's feelings. Its the truth though.

Here Dark Brandon saying it.

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If Bakhmut has fallen, it is irrelevant really. It has a prewar population of only 72,000, so it wasn't that big. In the months trying to take it, russia has taken more casualties than that. And barely moved the line. Even the reason for taking it has long gone - it was part of a plan to drive north from Bakhmut and south from Izyium to surround the Ukrainian army. Except they lost Izyium months ago and that plan fell apart - and yet they kept pressing forward, taking tens of thousands of casualties for nothing really.

And taking Bakhmut is one thing - Wagner intends to leave and head to Africa, leaving the russian regulars to try and hold it. Except now the flanks to both sides of Bakhmut are being driven back and it may end up the place is surrounded. Stalingrad all over again. And the counteroffensive hasn't even begun.

Bakhmut is a bad place for russia to try and hold anyway and worse to attack from. The place is gone - there is no cover left. And leaving town you have to cross open fields that slope up to hills. Ukraine sits on top of those hills looking down over Bakhmut and those fields. They'll be able to pound the russians from those heights, just like they did at Vuhledar.

[Edge-]

When a reporter asked Biden about russia saying providing f16s to Ukraine is a collosal risk, he replied 'It is. To them.'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ky-russia-war/

This is legit. God damn I like Dank Robinette when he's feeling sassy.

[YUPPIE]

Wagner intends to leave and head to Africa

you think putin is gonna let that happen?

[Calfredd]

you think putin is gonna let that happen?

Why do you keep pushing the narrative that Putin has more power than he actually does?

[YUPPIE]

Why do you keep pushing the narrative that Putin has more power than he actually does?

This is like saying Hitler did not have all the authority and power over the Nazis; that his word was not absolute.

But in regards to Wagner, it would be hilarious just imagining that scenario you made out:

Prig: Alright I'm done. Me and my troops are going back to Africa, have fun in Bahkmut.

Putin: You are going to stay and fucking FIGHT, that's an order.

Prig: Or what?

[Corvus]

The Prigs contract was to take bakhmut. He's done that. I doubt he will agree to more than that.

[YUPPIE]

The Prigs contract was to take bakhmut. He's done that. I doubt he will agree to more than that.

What exactly are you saying or talking about? That all the news outlets describing this guy's aspirations to become the next Putin, or how he'll be killed or labeled a traitor for insubordination, are all false?

You make it sound like this guy is literally just a simple thug-for-hire and nothing more, not even close to being an important figure in Russian mafioso politics.

[Fantomen]

The Prigs contract was to take bakhmut. He's done that. I doubt he will agree to more than that.

Its like the old feudal Europa, then the dukes maneuver for position to inherit the crown, but the old king, who have no official heir is stil alive. Putin cant puch Prig to hard,and Prig cant defie Putin to mutch. Becuse Putin need Prig, and Prig need Putin.

Putin need to "suport" Prig enough that Prig think he can win the crown after Putins death. Becuse Putin need several throne pretenders to ensure his power. Imagen if all miliary might was focused in one organisation under one leader, instred of spreed out to several competing organisations with leders who all are potential throne pretenders, who dislike/hate each other.

What I think will hapen is that Wagner will get a rest, on the condition that they will re-enter the war at a later date.

[Gaidax]

Curious question, we all know NK is leashed by China, so all of their supportive bluster is worth what in the end?

Russia is being massively supported by China, but China does set it up in a way which affords plausible deniability.

China is not quite ready to sever the ties to the West just yet. When they eventually take a real shot at Taiwan - it will happen, but that is a decade away still. What China does now is building a coalition of countries in its pocket, and Russia is an important piece there.

[Huehuecoyotl]

The Prigs contract was to take bakhmut. He's done that. I doubt he will agree to more than that.

So if the rumour about Prig contacting the Ukrainian military is true, is it possible that Ukraine "conceded" Bakhmut so that Prig would have an excuse to take his troops out of the country?

All feels a bit conspiracy theorist to me. Especially since it would involve Ukraine trusting Prig's word.

[Gaidax]

So if the rumour about Prig contacting the Ukrainian military is true, is it possible that Ukraine "conceded" Bakhmut so that Prig would have an excuse to take his troops out of the country?

All feels a bit conspiracy theorist to me. Especially since it would involve Ukraine trusting Prig's word.

They conceded it because it's not worth the losses and probably will be retaken anyway when attention is diverted from there. Russia buried it under the mountain of corpses and even if K : D ratio was 10:1, that's still a staggering number of losses.

[zealo]

So if the rumour about Prig contacting the Ukrainian military is true, is it possible that Ukraine "conceded" Bakhmut so that Prig would have an excuse to take his troops out of the country?

All feels a bit conspiracy theorist to me. Especially since it would involve Ukraine trusting Prig's word.

Bakhmut doesn’t actually hold any major strategic value despite how obsessed the Russians have been about it, especially after they lost control of Izium, its just where Ukraine decided to make a bigger stand to kill as many Russians as possible.

Far more likely is that Prig just wants Wagner out to focus on being dipshits in Africa because there’s way less personal risk to them there.

[Nymrohd]

What China does now is building a coalition of countries in its pocket, and Russia is an important piece there.

The thing is, this has began to massively backfire. China offered massive loans to select countries that had trouble acquiring loans otherwise and the significant majority of those countries (e.g. Pakistan) are completely unable to repay (because there were no adequate covenants for the use of those loans, only clauses to force repayment to China at an absolute priority). This is going to backfire immensely over the next few years with said countries already in deep austerity with massive portions of their GDP going entirely to loan repayment. When your government cannot offer basic services because all your money is going to China, public sentiment towards China will soon TANK. This is what is propping up Chinese efforts for de dollarisation after all. Hatred towards the West because of colonisation is not going to last for the rest of human history.

[Gorsameth]

Bakhmut doesn’t actually hold any major strategic value despite how obsessed the Russians have been about it, especially after they lost control of Izium, its just where Ukraine decided to make a bigger stand to kill as many Russians as possible.

Far more likely is that Prig just wants Wagner out to focus on being dipshits in Africa because there’s way less personal risk to them there.

Also the absolutely staggering amount of losses and Wagner losing practically all its combat capabilities as a result combined with a lack of supplies.

Its not just that its safer in Africa, its that Wagner is also not capable of contributing to the Ukraine campaign anymore. Their only option is to get out and spend decades rebuilding.

[Cynical Asshole]

The thing is, this has began to massively backfire. China offered massive loans to select countries that had trouble acquiring loans otherwise and the significant majority of those countries (e.g. Pakistan) are completely unable to repay (because there were no adequate covenants for the use of those loans, only clauses to force repayment to China at an absolute priority). This is going to backfire immensely over the next few years with said countries already in deep austerity with massive portions of their GDP going entirely to loan repayment. When your government cannot offer basic services because all your money is going to China, public sentiment towards China will soon TANK. This is what is propping up Chinese efforts for de dollarisation after all. Hatred towards the West because of colonisation is not going to last for the rest of human history.

That's EXACTLY what China wanted! Like...what do you mean, dude?! China knew it will never see any actual money back, which is why they asked for collateral such as seaports and other important local companies and lands. With these things under Chinese control, they got those countries by the balls, not to mention the taxes from international shipping routes going straight into the pockets of China!

China isn't lending money to these countries! CHINA IS BUYING THESE COUNTRIES! And that's the whole point of "Belt&Road"!

You actually think China is lending money because it wants interest?! BRUH!

[Corvus]

And what happens when those countries change their minds? Is China going to send in troops like a colonial power?

[Iphie]

Reportedly the "Legion of Freedom for Russia" has started a "special military operation" in Belgorod. Border checkpoints have reportedly been destroyed and the leadership in Belgorod is panicky.

[Corvus]

Nothing to worry about. Just little green men who bought their gear at an army surplus store.

[jonnysensible]

it would be funny if the counter offensive just went north instead of south or east, probably those same russian geezers who were fucking around there a few months ago

[Gaidax]

That's EXACTLY what China wanted! Like...what do you mean, dude?! China knew it will never see any actual money back, which is why they asked for collateral such as seaports and other important local companies and lands. With these things under Chinese control, they got those countries by the balls, not to mention the taxes from international shipping routes going straight into the pockets of China!

China isn't lending money to these countries! CHINA IS BUYING THESE COUNTRIES! And that's the whole point of "Belt&Road"!

You actually think China is lending money because it wants interest?! BRUH!

Exactly.

Country that can't repay the loan simply "cedes" their ports, infrastructure, natural, human and geopolitical resources as part of a deal - China exploits it massively in Africa for a decade already.

China does not give a damn that many of its loans are bad loans, because in return they get to pocket that country and its guts - and the public anger is something local government will have to deal with, China doesn't give a fuck about that one.

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And what happens when those countries change their minds? Is China going to send in troops like a colonial power?

It's not some sort of deal between pals - loans are loans, you don't repay your debts - you default and plunge your economy into chaos. Default is default - it instantly puts said country in a doghouse with international lenders for many years. Said lenders don't care if you defaulted on Chinese loans, Russian loans or Martian loans, the fact that you did not pay back the loans as expected is what matters.

So, what often happens is that those countries cut a deal with a lender, in this case - China. And the deal is often, instead of money - you take control of our key port or railway infrastructure or get exclusive rights on resources. China is a-okay with that, it's what it does in Africa to a great success.