Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gabriel]

russia will not use nuclear weapons. Relax.

I think he's not anxious, but aroused.

[Zaydin]

I think he's not anxious, but aroused.

Hasn't he been salivating on and off since this started about whether Russia would use nukes?

[zealo]

I'm gonna ask what, if anything, Belarus moving nukes from Russia means.

Empty posturing.

This doesn't change anything otherwise, they already have nukes stationed in Kaliningrad right next to it.

[Kallisto]

Hasn't he been salivating on and off since this started about whether Russia would use nukes?

Long before the invasion he stated he wanted WW3 so he could have a "manly death.". He also cried that nobody gets scared of his japanese horror avatars.

In we were in ffxiv universe he'd be Fandaniel just without any powers.

[Veggie50]

So, Belgorod still occupied by the rebel army…

Emberassing.

[Iphie]

So, Belgorod still occupied by the rebel army…

Emberassing.

Oh? I thought they had retreated already? Source would be fun. ^_^

[alach]

Sorry to interrupt the arguing with YUPPIE, but it looks like its go time...

"It’s time to take back what’s ours.


Complete with a morale boosting video.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=3225973554360344

Gods speed lads!

[YUPPIE]

Sorry to interrupt the arguing with YUPPIE, but it looks like its go time...

"It’s time to take back what’s ours.


Complete with a morale boosting video.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=3225973554360344

Gods speed lads!

Just echoing this. It seems like bad shit is about to go down.

One of Ukraine's top generals has warned Russian forces they will come to "envy the dead" when his troops try and punch through their fortifications in the much-anticipated counteroffensive.

In a rare interview, Brigadier-General Sergii Melnyk told the ABC, it will not be long before the full-scale operation to liberate Ukrainian territory begins.

"I can say one thing. It will take place in the near future, and it will be a very powerful special operation that will definitely lead to the defeat of the Russian Federation," he said.

It was widely believed the counteroffensive would begin in the European spring — next week marks the start of summer.

Ukraine says it is waiting for the right moment — when the weather is good, the ground is firm and its armed forces are ready to use equipment sent by Western allies.

[Joszef Kiprich]

I wouldn't say that's bad shit. I would say they have every goddamn right to.

[YUPPIE]

I wouldn't say that's bad shit. I would say they have every goddamn right to.

it's bad in the sense we're about to see a whole lot of death and destruction in one go.

The Ukrainians have been planning forever for this moment, so this is where some of the fiercest fighting will commence.

[Joszef Kiprich]

But I thought you would appreciate some real gore? Some scary shit, unlike your profile pic.

[Cynical Asshole]

it's bad in the sense we're about to see a whole lot of death and destruction in one go.

The Ukrainians have been planning forever for this moment, so this is where some of the fiercest fighting will commence.

Already Russians can't do shit anymore in Ukraine. Taking Bakhmut was their last ditch effort, and it didn't even swing the course of the war even by a bit, they just took possession of an utterly destroyed city. Their drones and rockets are all shot down by Patriot systems, barely any of them make it through and they just cost money that Russia can ill afford. And Ukraine is now going to have F-16s.

Quiet capitulation is a thing. It's when you lost and you know you lost, but you won't retreat nor publically admit that you lost.

Medvedev and Shoigu can yell and threaten as much as they want, no one is impressed. What, moving some nukes to Belarus? Hahaha, who cares? Everyone knows they won't use them. They can't use them lest NATO will involve directly with boots on the ground in purely defensive positions, however, any attack on NATO troops means the start of WW3 and Putin doesn't have the balls and neither does he want his legacy to be Hitler 2 - despised and loathed by the entire world for centuries, and nor does China want to be dragged into it.

Putin's next step is more conscriptions, he's got nothing else, his forces are spent. We'll see how well that will go with the populace.

[Gorsameth]

Already Russians can't do shit anymore in Ukraine. Taking Bakhmut was their last ditch effort, and it didn't even swing the course of the war even by a bit, they just took possession of an utterly destroyed city. Their drones and rockets are all shot down by Patriot systems, barely any of them make it through and they just cost money that Russia can ill afford. And Ukraine is now going to have F-16s.

Quiet capitulation is a thing. It's when you lost and you know you lost, but you won't retreat nor publically admit that you lost.

Medvedev and Shoigu can yell and threaten as much as they want, no one is impressed. What, moving some nukes to Belarus? Hahaha, who cares? Everyone knows they won't use them. They can't use them lest NATO will involve directly with boots on the ground in purely defensive positions, however, any attack on NATO troops means the start of WW3 and Putin doesn't have the balls and neither does he want his legacy to be Hitler 2 - despised and loathed by the entire world for centuries, and nor does China want to be dragged into it.

Putin's next step is more conscriptions, he's got nothing else, his forces are spent. We'll see how well that will go with the populace.

What would he be arming those new conscripts with?

[Calfredd]

What would he be arming those new conscripts with?

At this point? Cooking utensils.

[Cynical Asshole]

What would he be arming those new conscripts with?

Oh I'm sure Russia still has plenty of basic hardware like tanks and rifles, not to mention planes.

[draynay]

Oh I'm sure Russia still has plenty of basic hardware like tanks and rifles, not to mention planes.

Putting untrained teenage conscripts into planes so they can be fodder for German AA guns doesn't sound very cost effective.

[Azadina]

Oh I'm sure Russia still has plenty of basic hardware like tanks and rifles, not to mention planes.

Yeah, T34's. They're not getting far with them.

[Elder Millennial]

Oh I'm sure Russia still has plenty of basic hardware like tanks and rifles, not to mention planes.

"Plenty" is debatable. They might have numbers or tonnage, but the utility of the gear and the Russian's ability to maintain it is what's in question.

Here's a couple of things we know for a fact.

1. Ukrainian air space is heavily contested and the Russians lack the ability to operate inside Ukrainian airspace. Even over areas they technically control there's only a very limited area in which they can operate near the front lines. The effectiveness of ground based long range radar controlled air defenses coupled with MANPADs has seriously been underestimated before this conflict. We haven't really seen a real near pear or pear modern war in a very long time. What we know now, is that in a near pear fight the attrition rate on anything flying would be exponentially higher than it has been previously estimated. Western air power is decades ahead of the Russians in technological capability and practical skills (they fly more and in general have been fighting more than the Russians for decades), but it's now recognized that in a near pear conflict like let's say US v China, the attrition rate on jets and bombers would be absolutely horrendous.

So the Russians mostly use their planes not as close air support but as long range artillery. Essentially fly to the edge of contested airspace, fire off missiles and turn. On the odd cases when they do absolutely have to try and fly close air support (they are really bad it) they fly low and engage in some weird maneuvers that makes accurate fire near impossible due to the limitations of their targeting systems because they are incredibly vulnerable to MANPADs. So they generally just won't do close air support.

Planes are incredibly maintenance intensive, yes even the Russian ones. The bulk of the Russian airforce is flying 30 to 40 year old airframes, the average jet needs dozens of hours of routine maintenance for every single hour of flight under normal conditions, the situation is much much worse when they fly combat operations. Their ability to keep their jets flying is ...questionable. Even assuming they have the alleged 1000+ airframes, there are questions about how many of those are 1. air worthy 2. can be maintained. Analysts guesstimated the real number to be closer to about 300 to a maximum of 400 jets and bombers that were operational...about 12 months ago. Realistically, that number has been halved since then. Not necessarily because they've been shot down, but because they can't maintain them.

This also explains why they never actually achieved air superiority when the invasion started. On paper, the Russians outnumbered the Ukrainian air force something like 7 or 8 to one (remember you can't deploy every single air worthy plane you have at the same time in one place), tho the real number was most likely only something like 3 or 4 to 1. That ratio coupled with Ukrainian air defenses meant the Russians never could achieve air superiority. They still probably maintain that 3 or 4 to 1 ratio...but it's a number that will inevitably start dwindling as this war drags out and more and more planes are used up by simple attrition, end up cannibalized for parts etc.

2. Many of the same maintenance issues mentioned above also apply to the Russian armored forces. Russia has a very very limited production capacity. Also seemingly they aren't actually that focused on building more tanks, but rather on refurbishing or modernizing older chassis. At the cost and in the time of building a new T72 or something, they can fix up or at least make combat worthy 3-4 T60s in deep storage. Tho unlike with their planes they haven't been very conservative with their armor, so they ended up losing horrible amounts of it.

According to most recent analysis, in Ukraine, the Ukrainians are currently the more mechanized force. As shocking as this is.

The only area where the Russians seem to have retained dominance is artillery. Even there the attrition problems are starting to show. Remember those T50s that they have been sending to Ukraine? Well those aren't used as tanks, they are used as short range mobile artillery for indirect fire. Even there, they started using up their unholy stockpiles.

[Gorsameth]

Russia also skipped step #1 of establishing air control because they legit thought this was a 3 day operation and were expecting to take the country intact.
Its not for nothing that any Western air campaign in preceded by a large scale missile attack aimed at taking out air defence installations.

[Cynical Asshole]

So apparently Putin just whacked Lukashenko.

After a closed doors meeting with Putin, Lukashenko was rushed to the hospital. Nothing on media yet, just reports.