Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

despite all the tough sanction talk, even on the military front well into June, Russia is still launching waves of missiles and drones (supplied from Iran) and even took Bahkmut. Keep in mind months ago optimistic propaganda said Russia would soon run out of manpower and missiles.

But they still haven't

The intent of Propaganda is to moralize your side and/or demoralize your enemy.

In Russia, the propaganda has been, for the last 15 months, that Ukraine was going to fall any day now

But it still hasn't

[Dontrike]

Keep in mind months ago optimistic propaganda said Russia would soon run out of manpower and missiles.

But they still haven't

And they have been running out, it's why their "manpower" is essentially untrained teenagers. Believe it or not they still have bodies that can fight/make shit, but their resources are dwindling quickly. It's why they're suggesting the populace work at factories for the war effort or working more, unpaid, hours. They're struggling in a dozen ways and eventually the only tanks they'll have are the ones stationed to defend Putin and nothing more.

[Elegiac]

The intent of Propaganda is to moralize your side and/or demoralize your enemy.

In Russia, the propaganda has been, for the last 15 months, that Ukraine was going to fall any day now

But it still hasn't

Also, let's be clear here: Russia is very much out of missiles, and out of manpower. Which is precisely why they're having to rely on shoddily made Iranian imports and resorting to mercenaries and convict soldiers.

Bakhmut has been massively overhyped, to boot; the win condition for Ukraine was holding it long enough to bleed Russia of manpower and materiel, which they accomplished. What Russia has gained in exchange for all the lives and rubles it poured into it is a practically deserted ruin of no strategic importance, and where Ukraine is able to replenish its materiel via Western aid and is getting even more sophisticated equipment, Russia is having to rely on a choking economy to replace its losses with inferior garbage.

The fact that the tone of discussions has shifted from "how long can Ukraine hold out" to "how long can Russia hold on to Donbas and Crimea" should be telling enough. Let's not forget this gem from March of last year:

Ukraine can last at least two more weeks, if nothing drastic happens, but I expect Kiev to be encircled by that time, but not gone

[Flarelaine]

Any idea what Erdogan's victory in Turkey elections means for Ukraine? People are already fearing he'll be pro Putin.

Turkey has been a historic rival of Russia and Erdogan has already not flinched from downing Russian jets. Also Ukraine is an enthusiastic buyer of Turkish drones. Erdogan has nothing to gain from messing with Ukraine whereas helping them is good for business.

[gondrin]

despite all the tough sanction talk, even on the military front well into June, Russia is still launching waves of missiles and drones (supplied from Iran) and even took Bahkmut. Keep in mind months ago optimistic propaganda said Russia would soon run out of manpower and missiles.

But they still haven't

To show you how effective their military is, they did a predawn air raid of Kyiv. Usually you can get a lot of casualties this way. They got 1. Now, 1 is still too many but they attacked when people are asleep. And the person died due to a house fire.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...4c24fc05&ei=15

Russia launches pre-dawn air raid on Kyiv, killing at least 1; Moscow attacked by drones

Russia launched a pre-dawn air raid on Ukraine’s capital Tuesday, killing at least one person and sending Kyiv’s residents again scrambling into shelters to escape a relentless wave of daylight and nighttime bombardments, while Moscow authorities said the Russian capital was attacked by drones.

At least 20 Shahed explosive drones were destroyed by air defense forces in Kyiv’s airspace in Russia’s third attack on the capital in the past 24 hours, according to early information from the Kyiv Military Administration. Overall, Ukraine shot down 29 of 31 drones fired into the country, most in the Kyiv area, the air force later added.

Before daylight, the buzzing of drones could be heard over the city, followed by loud explosions as they were taken down by air defense systems.

In Moscow, residents reported hearing explosions and Mayor Sergei Sobyanin later confirmed there had been a drone attack.

Sobyanin said in a Telegram post that the attack caused “insignificant damage” to several buildings. Two people received medical attention for unspecified injuries but did not need hospitalization, he said.

Residents of two buildings damaged in the attack were evacuated, Sobyanin said.

Andrei Vorobyov, governor of the wider Moscow region, later said several drones were “shot down on the approach to Moscow.”

There was no immediate comment on the attacks from Ukrainian officials.

It was the second reported an attack on Moscow, after authorities said two drones targeted the Kremlin earlier this month in what was labeled an attempt on President Vladimir Putin's life.

In the attacks overnight on Kyiv, one person died and three were injured when a high-rise building in the Holosiiv district caught fire. It was not immediately clear what caused the blaze but frequently the falling debris from drones being hit and the interceptor missiles have caused damage on the ground.

The building’s upper two floors were destroyed, and there may be people under the rubble, the Kyiv Military Administration said. More than 20 people were evacuated.

Resident Valeriya Oreshko told The Associated Press in the aftermath that even though the immediate threat was over, the attacks had everyone on edge.

“You are happy that you are alive, but think about what will happen next,” the 39-year-old said.

Oksana, who only gave her first name, said the whole building shook when it was hit.

“Go to shelters, because you really do not know where it (the drone) will fly,” she advised others. “We hold on.”

Elsewhere in the capital, falling debris caused a fire in a private house in the Darnytskyi district and three cars were set alight in the Pechersky district, according to the military administration.

The series of attacks that began Sunday included a rare daylight attack Monday that left puffs of white smoke in the blue skies.

On that day, Russian forces fired 11 ballistic and cruise missiles at Kyiv at about 11:30 a.m., according to Ukraine’s chief of staff, Valerii Zaluzhnyi. All of them were shot down, he said.

Debris from the intercepted missiles fell in Kyiv’s central and northern districts during the morning, landing in the middle of traffic on a city road and also starting a fire on the roof of a building, the Kyiv military administration said. At least one civilian was reported hurt.

The Russian Defense Ministry said it launched a series of strikes early Monday targeting Ukrainian air bases with precision long-range air-launched missiles. The strikes destroyed command posts, radars, aircraft and ammunition stockpiles, it claimed. It didn’t say anything about hitting cities or other civilian areas.

[Corvus]

Someone flew a number of drones above Moscow without appearing to attack anything. russia shot them down, causing some minor damage from debris then blamed Ukraine for a 'terrorist attack.'

If it was Ukraine, it seems a waste of long ranged drones that did nothing. More likely they were of Russian origin I'd say.

[jonnysensible]

Someone flew a number of drones above Moscow without appearing to attack anything. russia shot them down, causing some minor damage from debris then blamed Ukraine for a 'terrorist attack.'

If it was Ukraine, it seems a waste of long ranged drones that did nothing. More likely they were of Russian origin I'd say.

more likely it was Ukraine

[Lanrefni]

Putin loves his false flags,the apartment bombings got him the presidency after all.

[jonnysensible]

not really sure why people go 'must be a false flag' like maga people do after every mass shooting. Proper alex jones stuff.

[Canpinter]

not really sure why people go 'must be a false flag' like maga people do after every mass shooting. Proper alex jones stuff.

I think it's more that this drone "attack" didn't seem to actually do anything so why would Ukraine waist the resources?

[Cynical Asshole]

more likely it was Ukraine

What exactly is the point of flying some expensive drones over something that is very likely going to shoot them down, and not even intend to use them to attack that something?! There are no strategic points in Moscow other than Putin himself.

[jonnysensible]

I think it's more that this drone "attack" didn't seem to actually do anything so why would Ukraine waist the resources?

haven't seen the drones or munitions on them yet only

'At least one of the drones appears to have been a Ukrainian-manufactured UJ 22, produced by the Ukrjet company. Footage appears to match images of the unmanned aerial vehicle, which Russia has claimed has been used in other attempted attacks. Looking like a scaled-down light aircraft, the UJ22 has a claimed range of 800km and is able to fly for six hours.'

,

testing defenses? revenge for the constant barrages on kyiv? targeting the airport?

'One goal of the drone strikes against Moscow may be as a “shaping” operation to pull Russian air defences away from the frontlines in order to protect large population centres.'

etc etc

- - - Updated - - -

What exactly is the point of flying some expensive drones over something that is very likely going to shoot them down, and not even intend to use them to attack that something?! There are no strategic points in Moscow other than Putin himself.

not expensive and symbolism?

[Elder Millennial]

not really sure why people go 'must be a false flag' like maga people do after every mass shooting. Proper alex jones stuff.

BECAUSE.THE.RUSSIANS.HAVE.A.LONG.ASS.HISTORY.WITH.FALSE.FLAG.SHIT. and more importantly PUTIN.HAS.A.HISTORY.WITH.FALSE.FLAG.SHIT. To make thing worse, most false flag stunts are often comically and hilariously idiotic, because nobody is allowed fact check anything Russia. They have no press, no media, no Bellingcat etc.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/88gd...ombing-ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...y-easy-debunk/
https://www.nme.com/news/gaming-news...e-sims-3212671
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_R...tment_bombings
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

There is a PATTERN.

- - - Updated - - -

testing defenses? revenge for the constant barrages on kyiv? targeting the airport?

Do you realize how far Moscow is from Ukraine? You understand that there are very few drones out there that could cover that distance?

And if they were launched from inside Russia, why the shit would one bother with the absolute logistical hassle of getting over the border undetected, launching and flying the drones from somewhere around Moscow? What sane human being would risk human assets that they somehow managed to get that far into Russia for...fuck all?

[jonnysensible]

BECAUSE.THE.RUSSIANS.HAVE.A.LONG.ASS.HISTORY.WITH.FALSE.FLAG.SHIT. and more importantly PUTIN.HAS.A.HISTORY.WITH.FALSE.FLAG.SHIT. To make thing worse, most false flag stunts are often comically and hilariously idiotic, because nobody is allowed fact check anything Russia. They have no press, no media, no Bellingcat etc.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/88gd...ombing-ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...y-easy-debunk/
https://www.nme.com/news/gaming-news...e-sims-3212671
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_R...tment_bombings
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

There is a PATTERN.

- - - Updated - - -



Do you realize how far Moscow is from Ukraine? You understand that there are very few drones out there that could cover that distance?

And if they were launched from inside Russia, why the shit would one bother with the absolute logistical hassle of getting over the border undetected, launching and flying the drones from somewhere around Moscow? What sane human being would risk human assets that they somehow managed to get that far into Russia for...fuck all?

There are shit loads of drones that can cover that distance???

'At least one of the drones appears to have been a Ukrainian-manufactured UJ 22, produced by the Ukrjet company. Footage appears to match images of the unmanned aerial vehicle, which Russia has claimed has been used in other attempted attacks. Looking like a scaled-down light aircraft, the UJ22 has a claimed range of 800km and is able to fly for six hours.'

The drone looks pretty much like a UJ22 from the video of that russian lad filming it out his window saying (holy shit its going over my house)

For your false flag to work russians would have to get hold of a uj22, have some sort of reason for doing it??????? (probably the glaring problem with the theory), and once again they dont seem to have any propaganda ready??

It was likely launched from Ukraine.

Although maybe we should keep going with the conspiracy theory that doesn't make any sense, maybe it was the lizard people.

[Elder Millennial]

There are shit loads of drones that can cover that distance???

'At least one of the drones appears to have been a Ukrainian-manufactured UJ 22, produced by the Ukrjet company. Footage appears to match images of the unmanned aerial vehicle, which Russia has claimed has been used in other attempted attacks. Looking like a scaled-down light aircraft, the UJ22 has a claimed range of 800km and is able to fly for six hours.'

The drone looks pretty much like a UJ22 from the video of that russian lad filming it out his window saying (holy shit its going over my house)

For your false flag to work russians would have to get hold of a uj22, have some sort of reason for doing it??????? (probably the glaring problem with the theory), and once again they dont seem to have any propaganda ready??

It was likely launched from Ukraine.

Although maybe we should keep going with the conspiracy theory that doesn't make any sense, maybe it was the lizard people.

The shortest distance from Ukraine to Moscow, in an absolute straight line is 850 KM. This assuming absolutely no loitering or navigation. Assuming the Ukrainians somehow magically squeezed out another 100+km of range at minimum, and launched right from the border it's still a stretch.

Here's the thing, I'm not actually saying it wasn't the Ukrainians, I'm saying that it's not unreasonable to assume it was some kind of false flag operation until proven otherwise because the Russians have a storied history with false flags and they are absolutely not above killing their own civilians, including children to drum up political support for wars.

[jonnysensible]

The shortest distance from Ukraine to Moscow, in an absolute straight line is 850 KM. This assuming absolutely no loitering or navigation. Assuming the Ukrainians somehow magically squeezed out another 100+km of range at minimum, and launched right from the border it's still a stretch.

Here's the thing, I'm not actually saying it wasn't the Ukrainians, I'm saying that it's not unreasonable to assume it was some kind of false flag operation until proven otherwise because the Russians have a storied history with false flags and they are absolutely not above killing their own civilians, including women and children to drum up political support for wars.

it is unreasonable! its the same as maga's jumping to false flag everything. Conspiratorial thinking is a bad state of mind to get into.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...31965469933568

Its usually the most likely course of events happened. Which in this case is Ukraine chucked some drones at Moscow. (not a uj22 now more info has come out). Why? because they are at war and think it will be useful.

[Elder Millennial]

Which in this case is Ukraine chucked some drones at Moscow. (not a uj22 now more info has come out). Why? because they are at war and think it will be useful.

Why would Russia launch a false flag operation, because they are fighting an unpopular war, and they think it will be politically useful.

Also, I'd like to remind you, none of these drones in Moscow were targeting anything with any military value.

Remember our conversation from a few days ago where you adamantly stated the Ukrainians wouldn't target civilians and civilian infrastructure, or just random Russian cities just because it was politically useful?

Can you decide what's your actual position on the possibility of escalation and Ukraine targeting or not civilians?

Because the only utility of this "raid" on Moscow from a Ukrainian perspective, would be the desire to make Russian civilians feel the effects of this conflict.

[jonnysensible]

Why would Russia launch a false flag operation, because they are fighting an unpopular war, and they think it will be politically useful.

Also, I'd like to remind you, none of these drones in Moscow were targeting anything with any military value.

Remember our conversation from a few days ago where you adamantly stated the Ukrainians wouldn't target civilians and civilian infrastructure, or just random Russian cities just because it was politically useful?

Can you decide what's your actual position on the possibility of escalation and Ukraine targeting or not civilians?

Because the only utility of this "raid" on Moscow from a Ukrainian perspective, would be the desire to make Russian civilians feel the effects of this conflict.

Here is my full consistent take :

'Hitting random population centers doesn't make any sense for Ukraine to do in any military sense and wouldn't help them win the war.'
'Ukraine probably threw some drones at Moscow, i would bet my house on it.'

i have no idea what they were targeting or why they did it. But i'm pretty sure it was them.

[Elder Millennial]

Here is my full consistent take :

'Hitting random population centers doesn't make any sense for Ukraine to do in any military sense and wouldn't help them win the war.'
'Ukraine probably threw some drones at Moscow, i would bet my house on it.'

i have no idea what they were targeting or why they did it. But i'm pretty sure it was them.

Allow me to translate.

"Instead of admitting I was wrong, I'm going to pretend I cannot possibly imagine why would Ukraine target Moscow, but I know it was Ukraine targeting Moscow."

Right after saying.

Why? because they are at war and think it will be useful.

Bruh.



It's OK to be wrong and admit you're wrong. Because if it was the Ukrainians, you already admitted you actually understand why they would do it. And if it wasn't Ukraine, you're just being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.

[jonnysensible]

It's OK to be wrong and admit you're wrong. Because if it was the Ukrainians, you already admitted you actually understand why they would do it. And if it wasn't Ukraine, you're just being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.

allow me to translate.

I dont personally think its useful to hit pop centers.
Ukraine might think it is which is why they have done (still dont know what the target was)

Really don't see how this is contrarian.