Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Elder Millennial]

allow me to translate.

I dont personally think its useful to hit pop centers.
Ukraine might think it is which is why they have done (still dont know what the target was)

Really don't see how this is contrarian.

Our entire earlier conversation was about how "Strategic objectives are determined by internal politics." And I am pointing out that both parties here would have politically logical reason for doing this. Ukraine's objective would be to make the Russian population realize that they are in fact at war and aren't out of harms way, and to prove that "Daddy Putin" can't protect them. And Russia could want to use this as an excuse to motivate the Russian population which isn't very keen on this war, and Russia has in the past used lethal internal false flags for the exact same reason.

So at this junction, either side could still be responsible.

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It was Ukraine that did it. They have defied the US several times with discreet incursions into Moscow before, though those were assassinations mostly.

Now I have no sympathy for the Russian people obviously, but I don't know why Ukraine would try to poke their benefactor when they say "don't do this."

They haven't defied their benefactors. Assuming they did it.

Ukraine maintains plausible deniability so far. If anyone will take recognition it will be one of the Ukraine sponsored Russian partisan groups and the hardware used will likely be something commercially available and modified, nothing that will have a big USAF/RAF/Ukrainian Air Force sticker on it.

NATO's conditions were for Ukraine not to use NATO donated hardware inside Russia.

Even in Belgorod, those Humvees etc weren't operated under Ukrainian flag, they were operated by Russian partisans, so TECHNICALLY there was no rule breaking there.

[Voidism]

I mean, I could buy that it was Ukraine.

The russian population need to wake up and stop ignoring this shit. There's a reason putin is unwilling to do a full scale mobilization.

He has worked for decades to make russian un-motivated politically. Any kind of mobilization would wake them up potentially and force them to stop looking away from the awful shit that's happening. That is a recipe for disaster for putin. Uncontrolled masses, which of more than half might potentially side with no-war folk?

We all know that shit will not get better if russians don't rise up. So there's nothing to lose, so to speak, from Ukrainian point of view to attack moscow like this. What would putin do exactly? Kill them all even harder? Ukraine seem to understand that putin already "nukes" cities - just slowly. Mariupol might as well have been nuked. Ukraine understands that he gets away with shit because it's slow.

[Gabriel]

I mean, I could buy that it was Ukraine.

The russian population need to wake up and stop ignoring this shit. There's a reason putin is unwilling to do a full scale mobilization.

He has worked for decades to make russian un-motivated politically. Any kind of mobilization would wake them up potentially and force them to stop looking away from the awful shit that's happening. That is a recipe for disaster for putin. Uncontrolled masses, which of more than half might potentially side with no-war folk?

We all know that shit will not get better if russians don't rise up. So there's nothing to lose, so to speak, from Ukrainian point of view to attack moscow like this. What would putin do exactly? Kill them all even harder? Ukraine seem to understand that putin already "nukes" cities - just slowly. Mariupol might as well have been nuked. Ukraine understands that he gets away with shit because it's slow.

Haha, no. /10

[Elder Millennial]

I mean, I could buy that it was Ukraine.

The russian population need to wake up and stop ignoring this shit. There's a reason putin is unwilling to do a full scale mobilization.

He has worked for decades to make russian un-motivated politically. Any kind of mobilization would wake them up potentially and force them to stop looking away from the awful shit that's happening. That is a recipe for disaster for putin. Uncontrolled masses, which of more than half might potentially side with no-war folk?

We all know that shit will not get better if russians don't rise up. So there's nothing to lose, so to speak, from Ukrainian point of view to attack moscow like this. What would putin do exactly? Kill them all even harder? Ukraine seem to understand that putin already "nukes" cities - just slowly. Mariupol might as well have been nuked. Ukraine understands that he gets away with shit because it's slow.

I'm not convinced that a Russian realization that they are in fact at war would inherently mean that Russians would go "no war".

Odds are that two (or more) broadly nationalist factions would emerge.

One faction would go "Putin sucks, we aren't killing Ukrainians hard enough, we look weak, we need someone stronker." The other would be "Putin's stronk, but he is being stabbed in the back by traitors."

Other potential factions would be like the Neo Nazis (they were Neo Nazis) running the Belgorod operation who want "Russia stronk!" they just don't think Putin's the guy for that or that internecine wars with other Slavs is a bright idea, or some regional separatist movements.

Currently there seems to be no real strong "anti-war" faction in Russia, especially none capable of organized violence. What there are, are a whole bunch of different nationalist loons of various flavors.

[Flarelaine]

Here is my full consistent take :

'Hitting random population centers doesn't make any sense for Ukraine to do in any military sense and wouldn't help them win the war.'
'Ukraine probably threw some drones at Moscow, i would bet my house on it.'

i have no idea what they were targeting or why they did it. But i'm pretty sure it was them.

Throwing their missiles at houses when they could be hitting supply depots is counter-productive for Ukraine. I'm not saying this rules them out, but does not make much sense especially when getting more ordnance pretty much depends on showing their homework on how they used them.

[Elder Millennial]

Throwing their missiles at houses when they could be hitting supply depots is counter-productive for Ukraine. I'm not saying this rules them out, but does not make much sense especially when getting more ordnance pretty much depends on showing their homework on how they used them.

I doubt this was "ordinance".

Assuming this was in fact Ukraine, what this likely was is Ukraine financed and supported Russian groups operating inside Russia equipped with modified commercially available drones, straight off of Ali Express.

[Kathranis]

You really can't assume that what's being stated publicly aligns with the realities on the ground on either side. I would be shocked if we didn't have CIA assets and spec ops advising everything the Ukrainians do.

As long as nobody claims responsibility they can maintain plausible deniability, and even if drones were captured it could be discredited as Kremlin propagandists doing a false flag.

Disinformation is part of warfare.

[jonnysensible]

Throwing their missiles at houses when they could be hitting supply depots is counter-productive for Ukraine. I'm not saying this rules them out, but does not make much sense especially when getting more ordnance pretty much depends on showing their homework on how they used them.

i agree its counter productive but looking at the drone : https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...31965469933568

its obviously ukranian, probably launched from inside ukraine.

The whole russians attacking themselves false flag doesn't make any sense (not just for common sense reasons), they are firing Pantsir missile's at the drones. Its not like you would waste those to shoot them down if they were part of some bullshit scheme.

[enigma77]

I hope they keep it up. Incursions, more bombings inside Russia, the show must go on.

Tuesday’s strikes, however, seem qualitatively different than previous attacks. For starters, this was not a symbolic blow against the Russian state, such as the murky drone strike on the Kremlin. Instead, it appeared to strike near the heart of Russia’s political and economic elite. Some of the drones apparently hit or flew over Rublyovka, a prestigious suburban area in Moscow’s southwest where oligarchs, politicians and top officials live in luxurious gated communities. The area is also very close to Putin’s Novo-Ogaryovo residence where the Russian leader is known to spend most of his time.

Burn their fucking houses to the ground. Show these "elites" the price of supporting Putin. Strike where the rats congregate.

[YUPPIE]

I think these incursions paint a negative picture in a broader sense, one which you people here aren't looking at (I think).

For a time, the Kremlin said if Ukraine threatened their sovereignty, which amounted to attacking Moscow or their annexed territories, they would nuke them. But Ukraine has become emboldened enough to have, externally or not, attacked Moscow in some capacity numerous times. Not to mention how far Ukraine has been willing to go to reclaim Russia's illegally annexed lands.

The fact Moscow hasn't launched a nuke yet despite this means it is a bluff and everyone knows it. So with that bluff completely called out, why doesn't NATO or the West as a whole put their boots on the ground in Ukraine and force Russia back to their borders and end this destructive conflict?

That means needless blood is on the West's hands for inaction, which I point to being for personal gain. They want this to keep going and have the ability to completely end it now.

[Iphie]

I think these incursions paint a negative picture in a broader sense, one which you humans here aren't looking at (I think).

For a time, the Kremlin said if Ukraine threatened their sovereignty, which amounted to attacking Moscow or their annexed territories, they would nuke them. But Ukraine has become emboldened enough to have, externally or not, attacked Moscow in some capacity numerous times. Not to mention how far Ukraine has been willing to go to reclaim Russia's illegally annexed lands.

The fact Moscow hasn't launched a nuke yet despite this means it is a bluff and everyone knows it. So with that bluff completely called out, why doesn't NATO or the West as a whole put their boots on the ground in Ukraine and force Russia back to their borders and end this destructive conflict?

That means needless blood is on the West's hands for inaction, which I point to being for personal gain. They want this to keep going and have the ability to completely end it now.

Because, oh greatest genius of our generation, a nuke in response to this will bill russia forever as a pariah. A nuke as a response to a NATO incursion is a whole different ballgame.

[Edge-]

I think these incursions paint a negative picture in a broader sense, one which you humans here aren't looking at (I think).

Are you non-human or something?

[Voidism]

I like that Ukraine picked the area where the elite lives for the drone attack. It show clearly to the russian people that Ukraine is not out to get THEM but their idiots in charge. But it also means that russian elite can't protect anything - not even themselves - and "shit's real".

[zealo]

Russian nuclear doctrine doesn’t revolve around hitting the big red button in response to slight prodding, but things that seriously threaten the existence of the entire Russian state.

That they’re not sending those flying in response to drone attacks is not indicative of what they might get in their heads to do if NATO actually entered the war in a 1991 Gulf War scale of operation.

[YUPPIE]

people, it's not NATO invading Moscow. It's just helping Ukraine out on their land, as I said.

That's not inside Russia.

[diller]

It was Ukraine that did it. They have defied the US several times with discreet incursions into Moscow before, though those were assassinations mostly.

source for that claim?

EDIT: I'm totally expecting a picture of your ass

[Benggaul]

Are you non-human or something?

They are a child trying to be edgy because they desperately want/need attention. And they're getting it from the dozens of people who just can't help themselves.

[YUPPIE]

source for that claim?

It's archived in the very thread if you're inclined to look through it. Ukraine has basically admitted (and very recently too) to several assassinations in Russia on key figures, notably a car bombing on a Kremlin woman last year.

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They are a child trying to be edgy because they desperately want/need attention. And they're getting it from the dozens of people who just can't help themselves.

I'm 46 this year.

[Makabreska]

They are a child trying to be edgy because they desperately want/need attention. And they're getting it from the dozens of people who just can't help themselves.

Oh, our guy is defo not childish. He is a deeply troubled person that is totally fixated on this conflict. Reality just flies over his head.

[Gorsameth]

It's archived in the very thread if you're inclined to look through it. Ukraine has basically admitted (and very recently too) to several assassinations in Russia on key figures, notably a car bombing on a Kremlin woman last year.

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I'm 46 this year.

The claim being questioned is not Ukraine killing Russians. Its that they defy America in doing so.

And before you answer remember that what an American official tells in front of the press and what they say behind closed doors in diplomatic and strategic meeting can be very different...