Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Muzjhath]

Hmm, did you ever read what happened after USSR collapse and where NATO expanded?

NATO didn't expand in a vacuum.
The countries that have joined have done so explicitly because they don't trust Russia.

Had Russia mot attacked Ukraine Finland wouldn't have joined

[Nymrohd]

While aid indeed took a while because the west didn't want to send a bunch only to have Ukraine lose right away and give it all to Russia, certain western countries, including but not limited to Canada, UK, Denmark, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Sweden, have been training the Ukrainian military since 2015.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Orbital
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unifier

And the fact the Ukrainian military was being trained by various Western nations was not unknown back then so anyone who was making informed speculation on the course of such a war should have taken that into account.

That said, let's not pretend that we all expected Ukraine to do this well or rather for Russia to do this poorly. The general sentiment here was that it was unlikely for Russia to invade, not that it would fail at it.

[Gabriel]

And the fact the Ukrainian military was being trained by various Western nations was not unknown back then so anyone who was making informed speculation on the course of such a war should have taken that into account.

That said, let's not pretend that we all expected Ukraine to do this well or rather for Russia to do this poorly. The general sentiment here was that it was unlikely for Russia to invade, not that it would fail at it.

I'm one of the people who were dead wrong about how long Ukraine would last. I admit it, and I've rarely been more happy of having been wrong about something.

[Nymrohd]

I'm one of the people who were dead wrong about how long Ukraine would last. I admit it, and I've rarely been more happy of having been wrong about something.

It is just crazy to see people try to redefine the past when we can just go and see past responses. It wasn't just the usual Russian shills that had that opinion, almost everyone thought that. People just thought the invasion was unlikely because it just did not make sense to anyone on either side.

[Flarelaine]

I'm one of the people who were dead wrong about how long Ukraine would last. I admit it, and I've rarely been more happy of having been wrong about something.

I felt and feel the same.

[Gabriel]

So there has to be an actual response to this by the West. The more deranged vatniks are currently salivating over the fact that the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant exists, and is located right upstream of the Kyiv city.



If the West does not make it clear to Putin that a deliberately caused humanitarian and ecological disaster like this is out of bounds, the Russians might actually think this viable target.

[Ulmita]

I'm one of the people who were dead wrong about how long Ukraine would last. I admit it, and I've rarely been more happy of having been wrong about something.

I was wrong because i didn't factor in western support.

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So there has to be an actual response to this by the West. The more deranged vatniks are currently salivating over the fact that the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant exists, and is located right upstream of the Kyiv city.



If the West does not make it clear to Putin that a deliberately caused humanitarian and ecological disaster like this is out of bounds, the Russians might actually think this viable target.

So are we sure that RU blew it? I mean wouldn't be much easier to open the flood gates (just like turning off the valves in north stream instead of blowing it up?)

[Dontrike]

So are we sure that RU blew it? I mean wouldn't be much easier to open the flood gates (just like turning off the valves in north stream instead of blowing it up?)

If Russia did what was easy for Russia they would have used 8x the men in the first week to get the job done. We've learned Russia isn't really smart either.

[TwistedSkull]

I was wrong because i didn't factor in western support.

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So are we sure that RU blew it? I mean wouldn't be much easier to open the flood gates (just like turning off the valves in north stream instead of blowing it up?)

I mean, Scorched earth tactic?

[Gabriel]

I was wrong because i didn't factor in western support.

Majority of the support came after Ukraine had... ahem... proven to be worth while investment, by not letting Russia just walk into Kyiv.

So are we sure that RU blew it? I mean wouldn't be much easier to open the flood gates (just like turning off the valves in north stream instead of blowing it up?)

Well what do you think? Why would Ukraine blow up a dam that will make it impossible for them to cross the river in the down stream direction, right before their counter attack is supposed to start?

[Ulmita]

Majority of the support came after Ukraine had... ahem... proven to be worth while investment, by not letting Russia just walk into Kyiv.




Well what do you think? Why would Ukraine blow up a dam that will make it impossible for them to cross the river in the down stream direction, right before their counter attack is supposed to start?

It just destroyed 6 months worth of fortifications and minefields. Let's not discuss about the loss of ammunition from the RU side.
I am not saying anything with certainty, it just has the same vibes as the north stream incident.

[Iphie]

So are we sure that RU blew it? I mean wouldn't be much easier to open the flood gates (just like turning off the valves in north stream instead of blowing it up?)

First, I too was wrong and I'll own it, but like most I couldn't be more happy to have been proven wrong.

Second : the floodgates weren't opened, the dam was blown up, from the inside, where Ukraine physically couldn't get to. So 1+1= 2 or, in easier language: russia is the guilty party.

[Gorsameth]

So there has to be an actual response to this by the West. The more deranged vatniks are currently salivating over the fact that the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant exists, and is located right upstream of the Kyiv city.

If the West does not make it clear to Putin that a deliberately caused humanitarian and ecological disaster like this is out of bounds, the Russians might actually think this viable target.

As has been talked about before, blowing up a dam from range is actually very difficult. Russia could blow up this dam because they control the area. They could walk up to it and plant bombs. Trying to take out a dam with missiles and drones would require a massive amount of precision ordnance and Russia is lacking ordnance, and has never been precise.
And that is before we factor in air defence coverage, including Patriots which have been proven time and again to be very effective.

Russia would love to take out that dam, they are in absolutely no position to do so.

[Ulmita]

Second : the floodgates weren't opened, the dam was blown up, from the inside, where Ukraine physically couldn't get to. So 1+1= 2 or, in easier language: russia is the guilty party.

That's what I am saying: Wouldn't it be much more easier for the Russians to just open the floodgates instead of blowing it up?

[Canpinter]

That's what I am saying: Wouldn't it be much more easier for the Russians to just open the floodgates instead of blowing it up?

Floodgates can be closed, dams can't be unexploded.

[Gabriel]

That's what I am saying: Wouldn't it be much more easier for the Russians to just open the floodgates instead of blowing it up?

No, if your intention is to cause maximum flood wave.

They intentionally filled the reservoir to the brim before destroying the dam to cause maximum damage to whatever is downstream.

[Belize]

That's what I am saying: Wouldn't it be much more easier for the Russians to just open the floodgates instead of blowing it up?

N-not if you want to cause irreversible damage, no.

[Gabriel]

I mean, there's also the very real possibility that the barely sentient chimps manning and commanding the Russian military are so incompetent that they broke the dam on accident by allowing the water level to get too high.

[Sunseeker]

That's what I am saying: Wouldn't it be much more easier for the Russians to just open the floodgates instead of blowing it up?

Dams aren't typically designed to be able to just "dump all the water out". Water release is usually limited to amounts that areas downstream can handle. Sure, it can be on the high-end of what the waterways downstream can handle(even in emergencies the maximum is still limited), but you don't usually install a "doomsday gate" that can dump so much water it will cause massive flooding and damage downstream. Excess water is handled near the top of the dam, if you don't have enough water to reach it, they can't be used.

Not to say that this particular dam isn't capable of opening up so wide as to flood the city, but that would be really weird design.

[No Kings Voter]

The New York Times actually asked some experts in structural engineering and explosives about what could have caused the failure of the Nova Kakhovka dam.
They said an explosion. A big explosion.